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The Rule of Law in the Caspian Region: Geopolitical Context and US Interests
by Ariel Cohen
Ariel Cohen is a Research Fellow at The Heritage Foundation.
Summary
The US and international community have a strong interest in the emergence of stable, democratic states in the Caspian basin. Unfortunately the development of constitutional procedures and respect for rule of law has been exceptionally weak. The absence of the rule of law slows economic development, breeds instability, and renders the countries of the region more vulnerable to negative outside influences. This situation will take many years of patient work to correct. In the meantime the scope for crisis and uncertainty is high.
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Policy makers in the Clinton Administration and senior members of the US Congress have stated on numerous occasions that the chief interests of the United States in the Caspian region include the independence of the new countries of Eurasia, stability, and successful economic reform. This means security from hegemony or hostile intervention on the part of the neighboring regional powers, such as Russia, China, and Iran, as well as preventing the spread of radical Islam.
How does the rule of law affect these US foreign policy goals? Historical experiences, ethnic groups, cultures, and traditions vary greatly from country to country within the Caspian basin. However, the region is marked almost uniformly by an absence of the rule of law, deeply flawed democratic processes, and high levels of corruption, especially in the law enforcement structures. Taken together, these features add up to a marked deterioration in the legitimacy of government throughout the area. Thus, in the long term, the absence of the rule of law breeds instability and renders the countries of the region more vulnerable to negative outside influences.Central Asia and the Caucasus are important geopolitically, geostrategically, and geoeconomically. As the hydrocarbon resources in the area are subject to increasing exploration, security of access and egress becomes more important than ever. To paraphrase Fred Starr, Central Asia and the Caucasus are not only the "near abroad" of Russia, but of China, Iran, and the two newest members of the nuclear club: India and Pakistan. In particular, the rising power of China, the internal tumult and anti-status quo posture of Iran, and the growth of militant Islam are all factors that US policy makers have to keep in mind while examining institutional and legal developments in the region. Hopes for the region were high in the early- and mid-1990s. But today''s observers note the following negative phenomena:
- Low rates of foreign investment and economic growth;
High levels of government corruption;
Incompetence and inefficiency of civil service; and
Corrupt and underpaid law enforcement.Specifically in the legal area we need to note: - Underdeveloped legal infrastructure, including gaps in major legislation;
Poor implementation of existing legislation;
Contradictory, often secret and arbitrarily enforced enabling legislation;
Inefficient and poorly trained legislatures and judiciary, ill-equipped to deal
with complex investment and contract issues; and
- Low level of public awareness that the rule of law is a key ingredient in successful economic and democratic reforms.
While governments in the region juxtapose democracy and stability, in the long term, a lack of democratically-generated legitimacy undermines the stability of these regimes.
Poor economic performance caused, inter alia, by the lack of the rule of law is especially dangerous in an environment characterized by high birth rates, high unemployment among young males, and an underdeveloped tradition of civil society. In the countries where regimes are authoritarian and suffer from a legitimacy deficit and where religious militancy is on the rise, an alternative, radical outlook challenging the status quo may quickly take institutionalized forms. The Iranian and Algerian examples demonstrate that the rise of radical militant Islam coupled with pervasive poverty and falling expectations, pitched against a secular authoritarian regime, may result in overthrow of the government, or in a bloody civil war. From Chechen field commanders to Tajik warlords, from urban guerrillas in Uzbekistan to rural rebels in Kyrgyzstan - the region is awash with the harbingers of turmoil.
Lack of understanding that the rule of law is a vital issue which needs to be addressed systematically is prevalent not only among ordinary folk, but also among the elites old and new. Ex-Soviet apparatchiks as well as the new entrepreneurial elites (who often are the sons and daughters of the apparatchiks) show little interest in applying the concept of Rechstaat to their realms.
Several countries in the region will in the near future face political transitions. In Georgia and Azerbaijan the causes are biological - the age of the leaders. In Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan one discerns a lack of elite circulation, which may lead to stagnation and increased autocracy. Although this may initially be perceived as stability, the deep entrenchment of corrupt elites in the absence of efficient law enforcement may lead to societal decay, abuse of state power, and a slowdown of economic development.The absence of constitutional democratic procedures complicates transitions of power even more than the lack of rule of law complicates economic transitions. Countries where democratic processes have been attempted in earnest include Armenia and Georgia. However, the 1996 ouster of President Levon Ter-Petrossian and the October 1999 murder of Prime Minister Vazgen Sarkisian and parliamentary chairman Karen Demirchian have dealt heavy blows to the nascent Armenian democracy. Constitutional democracy remains the desired form of political power transition but it is not really feasible without a separation of powers. Will the regime transitions in the region come under the gentle guidance of constitutionality or dissolve into bloody turmoil as we had seen in the neighboring Afghanistan? Will Western concepts of legitimacy based on electoral politics supersede religious, ethnic, clan, and tribal power plays?US interests, above all, are aimed at making the region compatible with the development of a democratic community and the global market economy in the coming century. We hope that the countries in the region will be open to foreign investment, friendly to the West, prosperous, and democratic. The Caucasus and Central Asia should not become China''s or Iran''s backyard. Nor should they fall prey to radical and violent movements such as the Taliban, or disintegrate in chaos.A successful transition to democracy and the construction of a functioning rule of law system requires political will at the top and competent personnel throughout the system. My first-hand experience with legal reform in Russia and Georgia, as well as familiarity with other countries, caution me that this crucial aspect of transition may take decades, not years, and may require a turnover of generations, not individual leaders. However, this pessimistic calculation does not mean that the US should wash its hands and stay aloof, especially when the stability and the future of the heartland of Eurasia is at stake.