Russia in Review

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security:

“All (of West’s) disagreements with Russia on Ukraine would appear not serious if terrorists, God forbid, seize power in a country that possesses weapons of mass destruction” chair of Russian Senate’s international affairs committee Konstantin Kosachev told Lenta.ru. “This would be a nightmarish scenario for the entire world and to prevent it we need to cooperate on countering terrorism and proliferation of nuclear weapons.” (Belfer Center, 07.12.16).
Former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry said: “It’s imperative for both the U.S. and Russian governments to find a way to repair this bad relationship. The U.S. and Russia [must] set up a joint working group to reduce the danger of nuclear terrorism. Maybe then we would have the basis for starting to repair this rupture in our relations.” (Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 07.11.16).
The Russian emergencies ministry’s national crisis management center and the United States’ Federal Emergency Management Agency have agreed on regular information exchange to prevent and manage emergency situations, a Russian ministry official said on July 12.(Tass, 07.12.16).
Currently, Georgian prisons hold 24 individuals either convicted of or charged with smuggling radioactive materials; eighteen are Georgian citizens, five are Armenian and one is Russian, according to the Ministry of Corrections and Legal Assistance. (Kazakhstan Newsline, 07.11.16).
U.S. lawmakers said an undetected radiological weapon smuggled into a U.S. port inside a cargo container is at the top of the list of homeland security nightmares. "We're at a threshold of having nuclear material available worldwide" that could find its way into the hands of terrorists who are willing to use it, said Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.), chairman of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee's Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee. (FCW.com, 07.06.16).

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

Russia has verified Iran’s commitment to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a nuclear agreement signed between Iran and six world powers last year. Sergei Ryabkov, a Russian deputy foreign minister and a chief negotiator at the talks that led to the deal, made the remarks in a meeting with Iran’s Ambassador to Moscow Mahdi Sanayi on Tuesday. (PressTV, 07.13.16).

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

The July 13th sitting of the NATO-Russia Council saw Russian diplomats offer a new plan that would commit Russian and all other planes flying over the Baltic Sea to switch on their transponders. The Russian proposal was welcomed by NATO officials, who said they would study it. NATO allies have complained that Russian warplanes regularly fly in the region without the ability to be tracked by civilian aircraft. NATO requires aircraft flown under its direct command to fly with their transponders on, but those flown separately by NATO allies do not always do the same. (Washington Post, 04.14.16).
‘‘We’re moving forward with the most significant reinforcement of collective defense any time since the Cold War,” U.S. President Barack Obama said at the end of the NATO summit last week . "We do not want a new Cold War," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said. 'We do not want a new arms race and we do not seek confrontation." (New York Times, 07.11.16, Wall Street Journal, 07.08.16).
“Decisions we have taken, including here at our Summit, are fully consistent with our international commitments, and therefore cannot be regarded by anyone as contradicting the NATO-Russia Founding Act” said the communique adopted by NATO leaders at the end of their summit. (NATO.int, 07.09.16).
“ The Alliance does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia. But we cannot and will not compromise on the principles on which our Alliance and security in Europe and North America rest,” said the communique adopted by NATO leaders at the end of their summit. (NATO.int, 07.09.16).
At their summit last week NATO allies agreed to establish a new joint intelligence and security division to better position the U.S.-led alliance to respond to evolving threats by more effectively sharing information. NATO allies also reviewed and reconfirmed their pledge to move toward spending 2% of gross domestic product on defense. NATO will also discuss a possible larger Black Sea presence in October amid worries over a more assertive Russia. (Wall Street Journal, 07.09.16, AP, 07.09.16, Daily Sabah, 07.08.16).
Russia has slammed NATO for focusing on what it called a "nonexistent" threat from Russia at a summit in Warsaw. "A preliminary analysis of the results of the meeting shows that NATO continues to exist in some sort of military-political looking-glass world," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on July 10. The Russian Foreign Ministry also said it will seek explanation from NATO for a Finnish plan to improve air defenses over the Baltic Sea. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that it was “absurd to speak of a threat from Russia” and that Moscow hoped "common sense" would prevail at the summit. Russia's ambassador to NATO, Aleksandr Grushko, said the alliance has a “confrontational agenda" and that Moscow would take countermeasures. (RFE/RL, 07.08.16, 07.10.16).
Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev has accused NATO of preparing for a “hot” war against Russia and says rhetoric from alliance’s leaders is pushing the two sides toward a military confrontation.. (RFE/RL, 07.09.16).
"NATO has no role at all to be saying what Europe's relations with Russia should be,” French President Francois Hollande on July 8. “For France, Russia is not an adversary, not a threat." "Russia is a partner which, it is true, may sometimes, and we have seen that in Ukraine, uses force which we have condemned when it annexed Crimea," he added (RFE/RL, 07.08.16).
Sixty soldiers from the 501st U.S. Airborne Infantry Regiment and five Black Hawk assault helicopters will take part in the drills with Latvian air forces. The troops add to the 200 American soldiers from the 3rd Infantry Division and the nine Abrams tanks currently stationed at the Latvian military base at Adazi. (Moscow Times, 07.13.16).
The NATO Review recently suggested that “the forces involved in the nuclear mission should be exercised openly and regularly, without undermining their specific nature.” ''Such exercises should involve not only nuclear-weapon states,'' it continued, ''but other non-nuclear allies. ‘To keep the Russians guessing, the article said that ''exercises should not point at any specific nuclear thresholds'' that might signal to the Russians what it would take to provoke a nuclear response. (New York Times, 07.09.16).

Missile defense:

The U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system to be deployed in South Korea is not targeted at Russia or China, South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-Se was cited as saying on July 11 by Sputnik News.(RBTH, 07.11.16).

Nuclear arms control:

U.S. President Barack Obama is considering declaring a “no first use” policy for the United States’ nuclear arsenal, Washington Post reported on July 11th, citing several U.S. officials. The U.S. leader is also weighing whether to offer Russia a five-year extension of the New START treaty’s limits on deployed nuclear weapons as well as whether to a U.N. Security Council resolution affirming a ban on the testing of nuclear weapons to bypass Senate’s opposition to ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, according to this newspaper. (Belfer Center, 07.10.16).

Counter-terrorism:

President Vladimir Putin appeared on Russian state television on Friday to address the French nation following the terror attack in Nice on Thursday evening. At least 84 people were killed. “We must make every effort to fight terrorism. Force is all that terrorists and their sponsors understand and that is what we must use,” Putin said. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, opening a meeting in Moscow with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, said that the Nice attack reiterated the need for the U.S. and Russia to cooperate in the fight against terrorism. A Russian woman was killed in the attack. (Moscow Times, 07.15.16).
At the start of a second day of discussions on a U.S. proposal for closer military cooperation with Russia in Syria, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry invoked the attack in Nice to emphasize the urgency of bringing about an end to the crisis in Syria. “Nowhere is there a greater hotbed or incubator for these terrorists than in Syria," Mr. Kerry said Friday. (Wall Street Journal, 05.15.16).
More than 2,000 militants who traveled from Russia to join Islamic State were killed by Russian armed forces operating in Syria, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said. (Moscow Times, 07.15.16).
The U.S. State Department has named two Russians allied to the Islamic State (IS) group as "specially designated global terrorists," including a Chechen militant tied to deadly attacks in Moscow. The State Department said Aslan Avgazarovich Byutukayev, also known as Amir Khamzat, is the IS leader in Chechnya. Washington also named Ayrat Nasimovich Vakhitov as an "actively engaged terrorist." It said Vakhitov, who also uses the name Salman Bulgarsky, has fought for IS in Syria. (RFE/RL, 07.13.16).
A propaganda arm of the Islamic State says that Abu Omar al Shishani, the elite Islamic State commander who earned international infamy, was killed fighting south of Mosul in recent days. His real name was Tarkhan Tayumurazovich Batirashvili and he was a Georgian national, although he called himself “the Chechen.”( Long war journal, 07.13.16).
A Kazakh court has sentenced 12 men who were found guilty of attempting to join the Islamic State group in Syria. (RFE/RL, 07.12.16).
Eight members of an armed group and one law enforcement officer have been killed in clashes in Dagestan. The National Counterterrorism Committee said that three officers of the Federal Security Service were also injured in the ongoing clashes in a rural area south of Makhachkala. A separate counterterrorism operation in Dagestan ended with the killing of an alleged militant by police, Russian law enforcement officials said on July 11 (RFE/RL, 07.08.16, RFE/RL, 07.12.16).

Cyber security:

Russia’s deputy minister for economic development has said that the data storage infrastructure needed for new anti-terror legislation doesn’t exist anywhere in the world. (Moscow Times, 07.15.16).

Energy exports from CIS:

No significant developments.

Bilateral economic ties:

Mikhail Fridman and his three fellow Alfa Group billionaires are looking across the Atlantic and see a clear stream of profit in ever-higher spending on health care. With two Washington insiders in tow to help navigate the terrain, the Russians are preparing to invest as much as $3 billion in the industry over three years. (Bloomberg, 07.14.16)..

Other bilateral issues:

The number of Russians who view the United States as a threat to other countries has hit its lowest level in a decade, a survey by the independent Levada Center found Tuesday. Sixty-nine percent of 1,600 respondents labelled the United States as a threat, down from 77 in February 2015. (Moscow Times, 07.12.16).
Russia's Foreign Ministry said it expelled two U.S. diplomats from Moscow last month in response to what it called a similar "unfriendly" move by Washington, amid a deepening diplomatic dispute between the two countries. The statement came one day after the United States announced it had expelled two Russian officials following the violent altercation that occurred June 6 in Moscow. (RFE/RL, 07.10.16).
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump had considered picking ex-chief of U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency Michael Flynn as his running mate before choosing Indiana Gov. Mike Pence. In his new book Michael Flynn, who served as Barack Obama's second Defense Intelligence Agency director argues that America is up against a global alliance between radical jihadis and anti-American nation states like Russia, Cuba and North Korea. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is vetting James Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral, to serve as her running mate. (Washington Post, 07.10.16, New York Times, 07.12.16).
Broadcasting Board of Governors Chairman Jeff Shell was denied entry into Russia and detained at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport after arriving shortly before midnight on a flight from Prague. Shell was denied entry into the country despite having a valid passport and Russian visa. Shell told colleagues with whom he was traveling that airport security authorities told him the denial of entry into Russia has permanent status and is “a life-time ban.” (BBg.gov, 07.13.16).
The lawyer of American pastor James Malecky has appealed the decision to fine and deport him from Russia for illegal missionary work. (Moscow Times, 07.12.16).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

The International Monetary Fund has made an upward revision of its projection for Russian economic growth in 2016, now expecting the country's GDP to stay at negative 1.2.% versus the negative 1.5% in its earlier report. (Wall Street Journal, 07.14.16).
The ruble has gained 21 percent since the start of February, the most among 150 currencies tracked by Bloomberg, and is up 34 percent from its all-time low of 85.999 per dollar on Jan. 21. (Bloomberg, 07.10.16).
The Russian government has sold a stake in Alrosa, the world’s largest diamond producer, generating $818 million to help close the country's growing budget deficits. Around 35 percent of demand came from European investors, 35 percent from Russia, 25 percent from the Middle East and Asia, and 5 percent from the United States.(RFE/RL, 07.12.16).
About 30 million, or 40 percent of the economically active population of 76.5 million, are part of the “shadow” labor market at various points throughout the year, according to a survey published this month by the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. (Bloomberg, 07.13.16).
Russia’s Rosatom State Atomic Corporation has confirmed in its annual report that it will supply equipment for thermal power stations in Crimea operated by Rostech. (Moscow Times, 07.14.16).
Russia's new anti-terror laws could cost Russian delivery companies 180 billion rubles ($2.8 billion), the Vedomosti newspaper reported Wednesday, citing the Russian Association of Long-Distance Traders. (Moscow Times, 07.13.16).
Russia's regions have received 10 to 30 percent less funding for HIV medication than planned. The number of HIV patients in Russia reached 1.3 million this year, according to the Federal HIV Center. (Moscow Times, 07.12.16).
Some 73 percent of Russians feel they have no influence over what happens in their country, a survey by the independent Levada Center revealed Wednesday. The figure has risen from 59 percent in November last year. (Moscow Times, 07.13.16).
Roman Badanin, former editor from the independent Russian news outlet RBC has claimed that pressure from the Kremlin led to his dismissal. Badanin said that coverage of politically sensitive issues had caused the Kremlin to target the group’s billionaire owner Mikhail Prokhorov. (Moscow Times, 07.13.16).
Russian security agents have stepped up their investigation of Ekho Moskvy radio, demanding a list of editors at the Moscow station as part of a probe into allegations that include inciting ethnic hatred. (RFE/RL, 07.14.16).
A report by Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation accused First Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov of using an undeclared $62-million private business jet. (Moscow Times, 07.14.16).

Defense and Aerospace:

The Russian Strategic Missile Forces Academy is developing a hypersonic strategic bomber capable of striking with nuclear warheads from outer space, Lt. Col. Aleksei Solodovnikov told RIA Novosti on Wednesday. A composite engine that will allow planes to perform flights both in the atmosphere and near space has been developed in Russia and will be unveiled at the Army 2016 international military and technical forum, Russian Strategic Missile Force Commander Sergei Karakayev said. (Sputnik, 07,13,16, Tass, 07.14.16).
Russia is to deploy its advanced long-range surface-to-air missiles S-400 in Crimea (Russia Today, 07.14.16).
Russia will arm its sixth-generation combat drones with microwave weapons. These weapons, which disable an aircraft’s electronic equipment, already exist today “and can hit targets within a radius of tens of kilometers,” said Vladimir Mikheev, a director of state-owned Russian electronics firm KRET. (National Interest, 07.12.16).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

German police chief Holger Münch said that authorities were seeing “the active development and spread of Russian-Eurasian organized crime in the West.” A single gang is believed to have caused losses of $500 million in 2015 through organized shoplifting raids, he said. (Moscow Times, 07.12.16).

Foreign affairs and trade:

Syria:
- U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that his talks in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 14th had been "productive" and serious. During the meeting Kerry proposed the creation of a special center through which the soldiers of both countries would be able to exchange information and synchronize strikes against terrorists, according to State Department spokesman John Kirby. Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Kerry and Putin did not discuss possible direct military cooperation in Syria. "They discussed different cooperation formats," Peskov said. Kerry also said he and Putin had discussed the conflict in Ukraine, saying Moscow and Washington have "unresolved issues" over the matter. Kerry then met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on July 15th. The two were expected to discuss the Syrian conflict, Ukraine conflict, and the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. U.S. officials said repeatedly that U.S. patience is running thin on Syria. “We cannot provide political cover for those seeking to pursue a different agenda. . . . It’s long past time that Russia decides whether it is serious about advancing such shared objectives in Syria,” one U.S. official said. (Washington Post, 07.14.16, RFE/RL, Moscow Times, 07.15.16)
- A U.S. proposal, which U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has reportedly brought to Moscow, calls for establishment of a U.S.-Russian "Joint Implementation Group" with near Amman, Jordan, through which the two countries would initially exchange intelligence and operational information on the locations of Jabhat al-Nusra and "synchronize" their independent operations against the Islamic State. Once an initial set of targets is agreed upon and all combat air activities by Syria have ceased, coordinated U.S.-Russian airstrikes would begin. In exchange, Moscow would use its leverage to effectively ground Syria's air force, limiting its operations to non-combat humanitarian and medical evacuation missions. . (Washington Post, 07.13.16, 07.15.16).
- "There are a couple of subgroups underneath the two designated — Daesh and Jabhat al-Nusra — Jaysh al-Islam, Ahrar al-Sham particularly — who brush off and fight with that — alongside these other two sometimes to fight the Assad regime," U.S. Secretary of State Kerry said, referring to two rebel groups that the United States has not named as terrorist groups until now. (Washington Post, 07.12.16).
- In an interview with NBC News Bashar Assad said Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had never discussed the prospect of him leaving power. (Wall Street Journal, 07.14.16).
- A Russian helicopter was shot down on Friday by the Islamic State near the Syrian city of Palmyra, Russian media reported. Both pilots were killed. According to newspaper and expert reports, the helicopter was not an Mi-25 (the export version of Russia's old Mi-24 attack helicopter), but Russia's new state-of-the-art Mi-35M helicopter, which first appeared in Syria in December and, crucially, is operated only by the Russian military. (Moscow Times, 07.11.16, Washington Post, 07.12.16).
- The Russian Aerospace Forces have used Tu-22M3 strategic bombers in the fight against Islamic State militants for the first time since a ceasefire was declared in Syria earlier this year. The aircraft took off from the airfield in the town of Mozdok and flew over the Caspian Sea, Iran and Iraq. (RBTH, 07.15.16).
Other countries:
- Construction of the first nuclear power plant in Vietnam with Russia’s participation will start on track in 2022-2023, Director General of the Vietnam Atomic Energy Agency Hoang Anh Tuan told Vietnamnet news portal on July 14. (Tass, 07.15.16).
- Rosatom and the ministry of hydrocarbons and energy of Bolivia have signed a memorandum on personnel training and education in nuclear power, and a separate memorandum to cooperate on public acceptance projects. (World Nuclear News, 07.11.16).
- The surprise appointment of Boris Johnson to head the British Foreign Office is being cautiously welcomed by Moscow -- and his predecessor's exit pointedly cheered. (RFE/RL, 07.14.16).
- The first Russian charter flight carrying tourists to Turkey since a diplomatic crisis erupted eight months ago has landed in the Turkish resort of Antalya. (RFE/RL, 07.09.16).

Russia's neighbors:

Ukraine:
- Ukraine was not named in a NATO communiqué issued after the summit’s conclusion in which NATO leaders said they “encourage those partners who aspire to join the Alliance. “ At the summit NATO did offer Kiev a new package of assistance on counter so-called hybrid threats as well as assistance on improvised explosive devices, or roadside bombs. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said alliance assistance was helping Ukrainian institutions become more responsive and accountable. (NATO.int, 07.09.16, Wall Street Journal, 07.09.16, Defense News, 07.09.16).
- A UN human rights report says there has been "limited accountability" in eastern Ukraine for arbitrary killings and torture by separatist fighters and Ukrainian soldiers. (RFE/RL, 07.14.16).
- Russian president Vladimir Putin has held phone talks with German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande to discuss increasing violations of the ceasefire agreement in southeast Ukraine, the Kremlin announced on July 8. On July 13, Russian President Vladimir Putin again held a telephone conversation with French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Russia’s Foreign Ministry also warned on July 12 that Kiev could be preparing for a new offensive in the Donbass, expressing its concern over the build up of Ukrainian military forces and volunteer battalions along the front line. Fears regarding a dramatic increase in hostilities in the Donbass were voiced not only in Russia but in Ukraine too. Kiev linked this eventuality to the Kremlin’s desire to destabilize the situation in Ukraine as a whole and in the Donbass in particular. (UAtoday, 07.13.16, Moscow Times, RBTH, 07.08.16).
- "There's no cease-fire in Ukraine," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said. "But that is the precondition for local elections to take place and the political process to go forward." Ms. Merkel met with Mr. Obama to discuss Ukraine. After that meeting, Ms. Merkel said they agreed to discuss how to advance the political process and improve security in Ukraine. (Wall Street Journal, 07.09.16).
- U.S. President Barack Obama said there can be “no business as usual” with Russia until it “fully implements” the agreement aimed at ending the war between Kyiv’s forces and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 07.09.16).
- The Ukrainian side has fulfilled 95 percent of the political obligations and 100 percent of the security requirements in the Minsk agreements, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced on Monday during a news conference which followed his talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. (Moscow Times, 07.11.16).
- Only 2.6% of Ukrainians approve work of their president Petro Poroshenko, according to a poll conducted by the Center for Social Studies in Sofia and reported by Ukraine’s Korrespondent.net. As many as 47.7 percent of the respondents said they strongly disapprove of Poroshenko’s performance while 27.6 percent said they rather disapprove than approve of his work. (Belfer Center, 07.14.16).
- Ukraine’s highest economic court has dismissed Gazprom’s appeal against a $3.4 billion fine. (Moscow Times, 07.13.16).
Other neighbors:
- “We have reasons to believe that we’re much closer now to success than ever before” in reaching a peace deal on Nagorny Karabakh, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a news conference Tuesday in the Azeri capital, Baku, after talks with President Ilham Aliyev. Negotiations “have never been so intensive. They’re also substantive” Azeri Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said at the same event. (Bloomberg, 07.12.16).
- “At the 2008 Bucharest Summit we agreed that Georgia will become a member of NATO with MAP as an integral part of the process; today we reaffirm all elements of that decision, as well as subsequent decisions. We welcome the significant progress realized since 2008,” said the communique adopted by NATO leaders at the end of their summit. (NATO.int, 07.09.16).
- The EU official responsible for the bloc's enlargement says that Georgian citizens should be able to travel to Europe without a visa by October. (RFE/RL, 07.14.16).
- The presidents of Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan are expected to hold talks in Baku on August 8. (RFE/RL, 08.13.16).
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel has held talks in Bishkek with Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambaev at the start of a two-day visit to what is widely regarded as Central Asia's most democratic country. (RFE/RL, 07.14.16).
- Pope Francis will meet with Christian, Muslim, and Jewish leaders during a trip to the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Azerbaijan from September 30 to October 2. (RFE/RL, 07.12.16).

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