Russia in Review

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for September 22-26, 2014

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

• Deputy PM Rogozin: Russia will fully renew its strategic nuclear arsenal by 2020. “The formation of the technical basis for strategic nuclear forces is going at a faster rate, and, in fact, we will renew not 70 percent of the SNF, but 100 percent,” Rogozin said. (Ria Novosti, 09/22/14)

NATO-Russia relations, including transit to and from Afghanistan:

• NATO fighters policing Baltic airspace scrambled 68 times along Lithuania’s borders this year, the highest count in more than 10 years. Latvia registered 150 “close incidents” cases where Russian aircraft were found approaching and observed for risky behavior. (FT, 09/24/14)
  • Estonia said its sovereign airspace was violated by Russian aircraft five times this year, nearing total count of seven over previous eight years.
  • Finland had five violations of its airspace this year against annual average of one to two in previous decade, while Sweden experienced what Carl Bildt called “most serious airspace incursion” in his eight years as foreign minister.
• Appearance of two Mikoyan MiG-31 fighter interceptors in  group of six Russian Air Force (VVS) military aircraft were intercepted by Canadian and US air force aircraft. VVS aircraft included the two MiG-31s, two Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bombers, and two Ilyushin Il-78 tankers - a modified version of the Il-76 military transport. Intercepts were latest in 50 such incidents over past five years. (IHS Jane’s, 09/23/14)
• NATO observed significant withdrawal of Russian forces from inside Ukraine, but many Russian troops remain stationed nearby. (Reuters, 09/24/14)
  • NATO spokesperson, Lieutenant-Colonel Jay Janzen: “There has been a significant pullback of Russian conventional forces from inside Ukraine, but many thousands are still deployed in the vicinity of the border. Some Russian troops remain inside Ukraine. It is difficult to determine the number, as pro-Russian separatists control several border crossings and troops are routinely moving back and forth across the border. Further, Russian Special Forces are operating in Ukraine, and they are difficult to detect.”

Other bilateral issues:

• White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest: Washington can work together with Moscow on various international problems, despite disagreements on the Ukrainian crisis. (Ria Novosti, 09/22/14)
  • “What we have been demonstrating over the course of our relationship with Russia is that it’s possible for us to have strenuous disagreements related to [Russia’s] behavior in certain parts of the world but we are able to maintain … cooperation, collaboration with them in other parts of the world. “I think there is an opportunity for us to demonstrate some cooperation, coordination between the United States and Russia despite our differences in Ukraine.”
• Russian Permanent Representative to OSCE, Andrei Kelin: “The US claims to be monitoring the human rights situation in other countries, which no one has asked it to do. At the same time, it cannot solve its own human rights problems. Unlike other countries, the US has not expanded its participation in international treaties and conventions over the past several years.” (ITAR-TASS, 09/22/14)

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s State Duma ratified treaty on Eurasian Economic Union (EES), which will start functioning from January 1, 2015. Russian lawmakers unanimously supported treaty, calling it “historic.” (Radio Free Europe, 09/26/14)
• World Bank slashed forecast for Russia's economy over next two years, saying growth would stagnate amid lack of structural reforms and Western sanctions over Russia’s role in Ukraine conflict. (WSJ, 09/24/14)
  • World Bank cut forecast for Russian economic growth to 0.3% in 2015 and 0.4% in 2016 under its baseline scenario from 1.5% and 2.2%, respectively—well below the government's estimates.
• Marlene Holzner, European Commission spokeswoman: European Commission ready to discuss South Stream gas pipeline project during three-party talks on gas issues with Russia and Ukraine. (Ria Novosti, 09/22/14).
• Thousands of Russians marched through Moscow in antigovernment demonstration criticizing Putin for what they saw as his warmongering in Ukraine. (NYT, 09/21/14)
• Russia and South Africa signed intergovernmental agreement for strategic partnership in nuclear energy, opening possibility of construction of nuclear reactors in South Africa with use of Russian technologies, state nuclear corporation Rosatom said. (Ria Novosti, 09/27/14)

Defense:

• Vice Admiral Alexander Vitko: Russia will increase Black Sea fleet with more than 80 new warships by 2020 and will complete second naval base for fleet near city of Novorossiysk by 2016. (Reuters, 09/23/14)
• Putin: “Permanent members of the Security Council exchanged opinions on possible forms of cooperation with other partners on a plan to counter Islamic State in the framework of international law.” (Reuters, 09/22/14)
  • Putin discussed potential cooperation with other countries on fighting against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), though he did not specify countries he would cooperate with.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Moscow court ordered businessman Vladimir Yevtushenkov to remain under house arrest until Nov. 16, sending shares in his company Sistema sharply lower. (Reuters, 09/25/14)
  • Yevtushenkov was put under house arrest last week on suspicion of money laundering during the telecoms-to-oil conglomerate’s acquisition of oil producer Bashneft. Sistema denies the accusations.
• Duma passed bill that would move up deadline of law requiring foreign Internet companies to store personal data of users from Russia within the country's borders. The deadline, moved to Jan. 1, 2015, from Sept. 1, 2016, would create near-impossible challenge for U.S.-based firms that have millions of Russian users but generally store data on servers outside the country. (WSJ, 09/24/14)
  • Russian authorities presented personal-data law as a necessary security measure to protect against foreign threats and U.S. spying. But rights advocates say Kremlin is pursuing measure as part of broader drive to curtail freedom of information and intensify scrutiny of Internet activity.
• President Vladimir Putin signed decree restoring the title “Dzerzhinsky Division” to an elite police unit. Felix Dzerzhinsky founded the Cheka. (Moscow Times, 09/23/14)
• Russia’s Parliament passed preliminary bill that would limit foreign ownership of Russian media outlets to 20 percent, targeting several publications critical of the government and extending Kremlin’s control over nation’s independent news media. (NYT, 09/23/14)
  • Russia’s top business daily, Vedomosti, the Russian edition of Forbes and dozens of other news, society, and fashion magazines would fall under purview of bill, which would force the publications to change ownership or close by 2017.
• Russia making plans to ensure state control over country’s internet traffic in a national emergency. Russia currently relies heavily on foreign hosting of websites. (BBC, 09/22/14)

Foreign affairs and trade:

• Konstantin Dolgov, Russian Foreign Ministry’s special representative for human rights, warned Latvia of “unfortunate consequences” if the country’s alleged discrimination against ethnic Russian minorities continued. (WP, 09/26/14)  
  • Latvian Defense Minister Raimonds Vejonis: “Russia is trying to use the Russian-speaking minority as a tool to aggressively promote its objectives.”

• Putin plans to attend Group of 20 summit in Brisbane, Australia. (Reuters, 09/20/14)

Russia's neighbors:

• Japan announced new sanctions against Russia in response to its annexation of Crimea and the crisis in eastern Ukraine, bringing it closer in line with steps taken by US and EU. New sanctions include restrictions on arms exports and a ban on Russian banks from issuing securities in Japan. (WSJ, 09/24/14)
  • Russian foreign ministry: “We see this unfriendly step as fresh evidence of the inability of the Japanese side to enforce an independent foreign policy line.” (Reuters, 09/24/14)
• Japan lodged protest with Russia after President Vladimir Putin's chief of staff, Sergei Ivanov, visited contested island chain of Northern Territories in Japan and Southern Kurils in Russia, but there would be no change to Tokyo's policy to maintain dialogue with Moscow. (Reuters, 09/24/14)
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga: “A visit like this by a high-ranking person within the Russian government goes against Japan’s stance regarding the Northern Territories. It hurts Japanese people's feelings and is extremely regrettable.”
• Over 200 Polish miners blocked trains carrying Russian coal at a border passage in northern Poland to protest against cheaper Russian coal being brought in at a time when local mines are struggling, mining union leaders said. (Reuters, 09/24/14)

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