Russia in Review

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for April 11-18, 2014

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

No significant developments.

Iran nuclear issues:

No significant developments.

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to and from Afghanistan:

"When the infrastructure of a military bloc is moving toward our borders, it causes us some concerns and questions. We need to take some steps in response," President Vladimir Putin said in a televised call-in with the nation. “Our decision on Crimea was partly due to ... considerations that if we do nothing, then at some point, guided by the same principles, NATO will drag Ukraine in and they will say: 'It doesn't have anything to do with you.'" (Reuters, 04.17.14).
NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen says the alliance is strengthening its military presence on its eastern borders in response to the crisis in Ukraine. Speaking after a meeting in Brussels of the North Atlantic Council, NATO's main political decision-making body, Rasmussen said the alliance will be making new military deployments by sea, air, and land "within days." (RFE/RL, 04.16.14).

Missile defense:

The Pentagon would ax a redesign of the front-end kill vehicle atop its strategic missile interceptor if future sequestration cuts remain law. (GSN, 04.16.14).

Nuclear arms control:

No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

Boston has marked the one-year anniversary of the bombing at the U.S. city's annual marathon. Three people died and more than 260 were injured when twin pressure-cooker bombs detonated at the marathon finish line on April 15, 2013. (RFE/RL, 04.16.14).

Cyber security:

No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he thought the European Union would not be able to stop buying Russian gas. “Will it be possible at all to stop buying Russian gas? In my view no," he said. (Interfax, 04.17.14).

Bilateral economic ties:

Russia has threatened to take the US to the World Trade Organization over sanctions imposed in the context of the Ukraine crisis. (Financial Times, 04.17.14).

Other bilateral issues:

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia telephoned President Obama on Monday afternoon to discuss the escalating crisis in Ukraine. In its written account of the call, issued Monday evening, the White House suggested that Mr. Obama delivered a finger-wagging lecture to Mr. Putin. Hours earlier, Mr. Putin’s office had issued its own summary, in which the Russian leader sounded anything but chastened. (New York Times, 04.16.14).
"If you try to punish someone like mischievous kids and put them in a corner kneeling on frozen peas so it hurts them, then in the end, you will cut off the branch on which you are sitting," Russian President Vladimir Putin said of U.S. sanctions. "What happens is that the U.S. is able to act as it does in Yugoslavia, Libya and Afghanistan, while Russia is forbidden from defending its interests," Putin complained. (Washington Post, 04.18.14, Moscow Times, 04.17.14).
US President Barack Obama said in an interview on Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin was supporting “at minimum, non-state militias” in Ukraine. “Putin’s decisions are not just bad for Ukraine, over the long term they’re going to be bad for Russia,” he told CBS. (Financial Times, 04.17.14).
President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that he believes his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama would save him if he was drowning. "I can't say that I have a special personal relationship with the U.S. president, but I think that he is a decent man, and is courageous enough that he would certainly" save me, Putin said, in response to a question from a 6-year-old girl during his annual call-in show. (The Moscow Times, 04.17.14).
President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that his country's much-vaunted "reset" in relations with the U.S. had ended with the civil war in Libya in 2011, long before the current crisis over Crimea. (The Moscow Times, 04.17.14).
Edward Snowden asked Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Russian leader’s annual televised meeting whether Russia spies on its citizens the way the United States did. No, Putin said. "Thank God, our special services are strictly controlled by the state and society, and their activity is regulated by law." The U.S. Embassy in Moscow tweeted in contradiction: "Snowden would probably be interested to know that Russian laws allow the control, storage and study of all data in the communication networks of the Russian Federation." (Washington Post, 04.18.14).
NASA recently renewed a contract that allows Russia to ferry U.S. astronauts to the International Space Station. The U.S. is, essentially, cutting Russia a $457.9 million check for its services -- six seats on a Russian Soyuz spacecraft, training and launch prep, landing and crew rescue and limited cargo delivery to and from the International Space Station. (Washington Post, 04.18.14).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Russian Economy Minister Aleksei Ulyukayev said on April 16 in the State Duma that the Russian economy grew by 0.8 percent in the January-March period compared to the same period in 2013. (RFE/RL, 04.16.14).
Russia's finance minister is predicting zero growth for the country's economy in 2014. Anton Siluanov said at a government meeting on April 15 that Russia's economy faced "the most difficult conditions since the 2008 crisis." He said GDP growth was estimated at 0.5 percent, but "perhaps it will be around zero." (RFE/RL, 04.16.14).
The Russian MICEX stock index has fallen 12% from its Feb. 17 high. (USA Today, 04.16.14).
Total Russian bond issuance – on both the domestic and international markets – has fallen to $9.1bn this year, a decrease of 74 per cent on the same period last year and the lowest comparable volume since 2009, according to Dealogic. (Financial Times, 04.17.14).
Russia's budget had revenues of $191-$194 billion from oil and $28 billion from gas in 2013, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during his hotline on Thursday. (Interfax, 04.17.14).
Alisher Usmanov has retained the title of Russia's richest businessman for the third year running with $18.6 billion, according to a Forbes ranking published Thursday. Mikhail Fridman, founding owner of Alfa Group, ranks second, having increased his fortune by $1.1 billion to $17.6 billion.(Moscow Times, 04.17.14).
The State Duma has approved in a first reading a bill that would put an end to direct mayoral elections in some of Russia's largest cities in what critics said was an attempt to ensure the appointment of mayors loyal to the Kremlin. (Moscow Times, 04.17.14).

Defense:

The first Borey-class ballistic missile submarine could be put on combat duty this year after taking weaponry on board. (RIA Novosti, 04.16.12).
The Russian government intends to budget extra funds for the disposal of old chemical weapons following the recent break in NATO cooperation. (GSN, 04.17.14).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

Russian forces have killed four suspected militants in Dagestan during a security operation. (RFE/RL, 04.15.14).

Foreign affairs and trade:

In an annual live television phone-in Russian President Vladimir Putin made an unusually prominent reference to China, calling Moscow and Beijing “natural allies” and claiming that they had reached unprecedented levels of trust and co-operation. He said there was no intention to form a military or political union with Beijing as the bloc-based system of international relations had exhausted itself. (Financial Times, 04.17.14).
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia would stand up to the west but did not intend to close itself off from the world. In an annual live television phone-in in which the Russian president answers questions from viewers, Mr Putin suggested the Ukraine crisis had put his country on a more equal footing with western powers. (Financial Times, 04.17.14).
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Although China does not support Russia’s position on the issue of territorial integrity, Moscow is content with what it sees as a balanced approach to the crisis from Beijing and is confident of securing a new gas deal in the near future. (RBTH, 04.18.14).
A Finnish-Russian plan to build a nuclear reactor in western Finland will not be at risk from international sanctions imposed over the Ukraine crisis, a Rosatom executive said Tuesday. (Reuters, 04.16.14).

Russia's neighbors:

After seven hours of negotiations, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, and John Kerry and Andriy Deshchytsia, his US and Ukrainian counterparts, said in Geneva that a statement had been agreed upon calling for the disbanding of armed groups, the vacation of occupied streets and buildings, and an amnesty for people detained during the unrest. In addition, Ukraine will embark on a process of constitutional reform designed to foster regional autonomy, local self-government and the protection of minority rights, a process which both Mr Kerry and Mr Lavrov stressed must be “inclusive, transparent, and accountable”. In his press conference on Thursday, Mr Lavrov stressed that the disbanding of illegally armed groups must include all such groups, in a thinly veiled reference to veterans of the Maidan protests in Kiev. U.S.. Secretary of State John Kerry called the measures an important first step to avert “a complete and total implosion” in eastern Ukraine and said they could lead to more far-reaching moves to resolve the conflict. (Financial Times, New York Times, 04.18.14).
The Ukrainian authorities signaled on Friday that they were moving ahead with one provision of the Geneva agreement. Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk told the Parliament on Friday morning that the government had drafted a law offering amnesty to protesters who leave occupied government buildings and lay down arms. (New York Times, 04.18.14).
Pro-Russian activists refused to retreat from occupied public buildings in eastern Ukraine on Friday despite an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough on Thursday night that laid out steps to disarm the protesters and ease tensions in the country. (Financial Times, 04.18.14).
Ukrainian security forces killed three pro-Russian protesters, wounded 13 and took 63 captive in a firefight overnight in the eastern city of Mariupol, the interim Ukrainian interior minister said on Thursday. The events in Mariupol overnight, and in the towns of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, north of the provincial capital of Donetsk on Wednesday, underscored both the limits of Ukraine's military and the difficulties of the tactical problems it faces in its attempt to dislodge armed separatists from eastern Ukraine. On Wednesday, pro-Russian militia captured six Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicles and, allegedly, 60 soldiers in Kramatorsk, driving them to nearby Slavyansk with a Russian flag flying. (The Guardian, 04.17.14, (New York Times, 04.17.14).
Ukrainian police sympathetic to pro-Russian separatists occupying government buildings helped thwart a threatened crackdown Monday, undermining the government's credibility and encouraging the gunmen to grab more facilities. (Los Angeles Times, 04.15.14).
Ukraine’s acting President Oleksandr Turchynov called on the U.N. on Monday to send peacekeeping troops to 10 cities in the eastern part of Ukraine that have been occupied by pro-Russian insurgents. (AP, 04.14.14).
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia emphasized on Thursday that the upper chamber of the Russian Parliament had authorized him to use military force if necessary in eastern Ukraine, and also stressed Russia’s historical claim to the territory, repeatedly referring to it as “new Russia” and saying that only “God knows” why it became part of Ukraine. (New York Times, 04.18.14).
Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that the current election campaign in Ukraine has unacceptable forms, and if it continues to take place in such forms, the Russian authorities will not be able to recognize the legitimacy of Ukraine's upcoming presidential polls. (Interfax, 04.17.14).
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday: "There are no Russian units in eastern Ukraine - no special services, no tactical advisers. All this is being done by the local residents." In early March, Putin denied that the well-equipped troops operating on Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula and wearing green uniforms without insignia were Russian. Anyone could buy those uniforms, he said. On Thursday, when asked about the soldiers widely known as the green men, Putin acknowledged that they were Russian. Their presence had been necessary, he said, to keep order so that Crimeans could decide their future in a referendum.(Washington Post, 04.18.14).
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Ukraine is "on the verge of civil war." The Kremlin said Putin made the comment in a telephone call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the situation there. (RFE/RL, 04.16.14).
U.S. President Barack Obama conveyed skepticism Thursday about Russian promises to de-escalate a volatile situation in Ukraine, and said the United State and its allies are ready to impose fresh sanctions if Moscow doesn't make good on its commitments. (AP, 04.17.14).
The U.S. will send additional nonlethal military support to Ukraine, U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Thursday, in the latest U.S. move to reassure allies following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and a buildup of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border. (AP, 04.17.14).
U.S. Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. called Slovakia’s prime minister for the second time in recent days to press him to help reverse the flow of a natural gas pipeline to reduce Ukraine’s reliance on Russian energy. (New York Times, 04.18.14).
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy, the country will need to import only 15 billion cubic meters of Russian gas in 2014 - the remaining 35 billion cubic meters will come from reverse deliveries from Europe. (RBTH, 04.15.14).
The United States is giving its tacit support to Ukrainian military action against pro-Russian separatists. White House spokesman Jay Carney says such action isn't the preferred option, but that the Ukrainian government has to respond to what he says is an untenable situation. (AP, 04.15.14).
Republican Senator John McCain has said EU sanctions against Russia are "almost a joke" and reiterated the need for a stronger U.S. role in the conflict, calling upon President Barack Obama to arm Ukrainians so that they can "defend themselves." (The Moscow Times, 04.16.14).
The European Union has agreed to step up sanctions against Russia over Ukraine by expanding a list of people targeted with asset freezes and visa bans, and said the bloc could hold an emergency summit next week to adopt further measures. (Reuters, 04.15.14).
A United Nations report on April 15 cast doubt on whether Russian-speakers were seriously threatened, including those in Crimea who voted to join Russia after Moscow forces had already seized control of the Black Sea peninsula. “Although there were some attacks against the ethnic Russian community, these were neither systematic nor widespread," said the report by the UN human rights office. Russia called the report one-sided, politicized and apparently fabricated. (RFE/RL, 04.16.14).
The U.S. on Thursday condemned as “grotesque” the distribution of leaflets demanding that Jews in eastern Ukraine register with a self-proclaimed local authority or face consequences. The press office of the group being blamed denied any involvement in the matter and says the leaflets are fake. (Detroit Free Press, 04.17.14).
NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen accused Moscow of involvement in the rebellions in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 04.16.14).
Pro-Russian candidate for the Ukrainian presidency Oleh Tsaryov, was beaten on Tuesday morning by a crowd in Kiev and remains in critical condition, the politician's press service said. (The Moscow Times, 04.15.14).
If the eastern regions of Ukraine were ever to shift to Russia's orbit, Ukraine could potentially lose control of 45.6 percent of its coal reserves. (The Moscow Times, 04.17.14).
Russia has increased its military activity near the border with Ukraine markedly since late last week, a reporting team said after making return visits to the frontier zone where NATO says Moscow has amassed 40,000 troops. (Reuters, 04.17.14).
Ukraine has begun restricting Russian men from entering the country amid fears that Russian activists are fuelling increasingly violent separatist protests in the east. (Financial Times, 04.17.14).
The European Union's enlargement commissioner has warned Russia that EU sanctions could gradually be "enlarged to a broad range of economic areas" should Moscow continue to destabilize Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 04.16.14).
Moldova's government says it is still waiting for a "very clear" Russian reaction to a recent address by lawmakers in the breakaway region of Transdniester. On April 16, Transdniester’s lawmakers urged President Vladimir Putin, Russia's parliament, the UN, and the OSCE to recognize the main Russian-speaking region's independence. (RFE/RL, 04.18.14).
Ovik Abraamian has started work to form a new government following his appointment as Armenia’s prime minister. (RFE/RL, 04.14.14).

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