Russia in Review

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for March 14-21, 2014

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

With the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit less than a week away, the Obama administration and outside observers are already beginning to look toward the global gathering in 2016. In particular, administration officials and issue experts hope to make progress on two issues: The vulnerability of civilian plutonium stocks, specifically, and of military nuclear materials, more generally, to possible theft and use by terrorists. (GSN, 03.18.14).

Iran nuclear issues:

Russia warned that Western pressure on Moscow over the Ukraine crisis could jeopardize the Iran nuclear talks. "We wouldn't like to use these talks as an element of raising the stakes, given the mood in certain European capitals, Brussels and Washington," by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said after the ended. "But if we are forced to do this, we will go down the path of taking measures in response." (Wall Street Journal, 03.20.14).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to and from Afghanistan:

No significant developments.

Missile defense:

No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

No significant developments.
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Russia's incursion into Ukraine may affect the prospects for nuclear arms control in Europe. (GSN, 03.20.14).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

No significant developments.

Cyber security:

No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

No significant developments.

Bilateral economic ties:

No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

President Vladimir Putin told his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama that the referendum in Crimea complied with international law and the UN Charter. Obama refused to recognize the validity of the referendum. The referendum that backed joining Russia by almost 97 percent on March 16 was "open and fair," Putin said in separate comments. (RIA Novosti, RFE/RL, 03.18.14).
U.S. President Barack Obama on Thursday announced that he would expand sanctions against Russia, blacklisting wealthy individuals with ties to the government and a bank used by them, and opening the door to broader measures against Russian energy exports. This was the second round of US sanctions this week. On Monday the US and EU imposed travel bans and asset freezes on a score of officials from Russia and Ukraine as Crimea declared independence following a referendum. (Financial Times, New York Times, 03.20.14).
In a tit-for-tat response for U.S. sanctions, Moscow banned nine American officials from entering Russia, including Speaker John A. Boehner, the Senate Democratic leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, Senator John McCain of Arizona, as well as three senior White House officials. (New York Times, 03.20.14).
President Obama said on Wednesday that he had ruled out the use of United States military force in the Ukraine crisis, and that the international response to Russia’s seizure of Crimea will be limited to diplomacy. (Wall Street Journal, 03.21.14).
A number of further Russian banks faced problems with international payment systems Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc. Friday, after the U.S. placed sanctions on Bank Rossiya in connection with the annexation of Crimea. (Wall Street Journal, 03.21.14).
Former president Bill Clinton said in a new interview that Russian President Vladimir Putin is "highly intelligent" and patriotic for his country, but that his view of greatness often comes at the expense of ordinary people. Clinton also said Crimea is a "special case," even as he called the just-concluded referendum to leave Ukraine and join Russia a "farce." (Washington Post, 03.17.14).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called on the country's billionaires to pay their taxes. Speaking to the heads of Russia's largest companies at a conference in Moscow on March 20, Putin said Russian companies "should be registered on the territory of our nation, in our country, and have a transparent ownership structure." (RFE/RL, 03.20.14).
Russia's Micex stock index fell by more than 3% as trading started Friday, while the RTS Index shed more than 4% in early trading. (Wall Street Journal, 03.21.14).
Moscow fell four spots to place 73rd on the most recent list of the world's top financial centers, with New York beating former leader London for the first time. (The Moscow Times, 03.18.14).
Moscow saw its biggest opposition rally since street protests against president Vladimir Putin in early 2012 on Saturday as tens of thousands demonstrated against Russia’s military intervention in neighboring Ukraine. Nearby, a rival rally in support of the Russian government and the referendum in Crimea planned for Sunday attracted thousands as well. The government put the number of participants at the pro-Putin march at 18,000 and said only 3,000 had been at the peace march. (Financial Times, 03.15.14).

Defense:

No significant developments.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

Chechen warlord Doku Umarov, one of Russia's most wanted men, has died, a Chechen jihadist website said on Tuesday. The Kavkaz Center website said Umarov would be replaced as leader of the Islamist group Caucasus Emirate by Ali Abu Mohammed. (CNN, 03.18.14).

Foreign affairs and trade:

The EU decided to take only incremental new measures to punish Russia for this week’s annexation of Crimea, adding 12 names to the 21 Russian and Crimean officials subject to EU visa bans and asset freezes but putting off indefinitely any further sanctions. In an earlier move EU foreign ministers made a decision to impose sanctions against 21 officials from Ukraine and Russia in retaliation for their part in Russia's seizure of Crimea and the secession referendum. The decision was made on March 17. (RFE/RL, 03.17.14, Financial Times, 03.21.14).
In Britain, Prime Minister David Cameron told parliament that Russia should be cast out of the Group of Eight (G8) leading economic nations. (RFE/RL, 03.20.14).
Poland on Thursday said it would speed up the process for choosing a national antimissile system amid worries about Russia's actions in Ukraine. (GSN, 03.21.14).
Canada's Foreign Ministry assured the Russian Embassy on Saturday that suspects behind the attack on a Russian diplomat will be punished. (RIA Novosti, 03.17.14).
According to fresh research out of the Russian Levada Center , a respected independent polling operation, the number of Russians who think their country is a "great power" just hit 63 percent — a 15-year high . In March of 1999, only 31 percent of Russians felt that way. Levada Center also found that more Russians today view the United States negatively than at any time since April of 1990, when this kind of polling began. The research said that 56 percent of Russians view the United States negatively, up from 44 percent in January. (Washington Post, 03.20.14).
The German utility RWE said on Sunday that it had reached a preliminary agreement to sell its oil and natural gas subsidiary, RWE Dea, to the Russian billionaires Mikhail Fridman and German Khan for 5.1 billion euros, or roughly $7 billion. (New York Times, 03.17.14).
A Bild newspaper poll published on Sunday showed that only 20 per cent of the Germans surveyed backed tough sanctions against Russia. The rest were, to various degrees against, mostly out of concern for German jobs. In 2012, German trade with Russia hit $80bn, compared with $19bn for the US. (Financial Times, 03.17.14).
SIPRI estimates Russian arms exports grew 28% in the five years ended in 2013, compared with the same period ended in 2008. U.S. market share during the period slid one percentage point to 29% despite an 11% uptick in volume, while Russia's increased by three percentage points to 27%. (Wall Street Journal, 03.16.14).

Russia's neighbors:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed into being new laws on the accession of Crimea and Sevastopol to Russia and on the formation of two new Russian regions. On Thursday the State Duma ratified a treaty between Russia and Crimea on Crimea's accession to Russia and the formation of new Russian regions. The Federation Council approved the documents on Friday. (Voice of Russia, 03.21.14).
President Vladimir Putin delivered a fiercely patriotic speech on Tuesday describing Crimea as an inseparable part of Russia and accusing the West of reverting to Cold War containment by trying to stop the Ukrainian region from joining Russia. Putin also signaled that Russia isn't about to occupy eastern Ukraine. (Reuters, AFP, 03.18.14).
Russian forces and their Crimean militia allies appeared on Thursday to have released the commander of the Ukrainian Navy, seized in his own headquarters. (New York Times, 03.21.14).
Ukraine's debt to Russia stands at $16 billion, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said. Russia’s prime minister threatened to raise Ukrainian gas prices and sue the country for $11bn in arrears. Mr Medvedev’s claim on $11bn in back payments centers on Russia’s deal with Ukraine that allows it to base its Black Sea fleet in the Crimean port of Sevastopol. (Interfax, Financial Times, 03.21.14).
Russia accused Western states of violating a pledge to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and political independence under a 1994 security assurance agreement, saying they had "indulged a coup d'etat" that ousted President Viktor Yanukovych last month. (Reuters, 03.19.14).
Ukraine's new pro-Western government voiced restraint on Tuesday in the face of Russian President Vladimir Putin's moves to officially annex Crimea, pledging that Ukraine would not join NATO and would take steps to improve ties with Moscow. But leaders there also said they "will never recognize" Crimea's status as a part of Russia. (Washington Post, 03.18.14).
The interim government in Kiev says Ukraine will leave the commonwealth of post-Soviet states and force Russians to apply for entry visas, and plans to ask the United Nations to make Crimea a demilitarized zone. (Russia Today, 03.21.14).
Ukraine's prime minister signed a political cooperation agreement with the European Union. EU President Herman Van Rompuy said the signing early on March 21 of political chapters of the Association Agreement with Ukraine shows how important the relationship between the two sides is. (RFE/RL, 03.21.14).
Demonstrations broke out in cities across eastern Ukraine on Sunday, with thousands of protesters demanding the right to hold referendums on their future status, taking a cue from the Russian-controlled vote in Crimea. (Financial Times, 03.16.14).
Two people - a self-defense member and a Ukrainian soldier - were killed after a sniper opened fire from a partially inhabited building near a military research center in Simferopol. (Russia Today, 03.19.14).
Ukraine’s military on Saturday claimed it had repelled the first Russian military incursion on to mainland territory, using aircraft and paratroopers to push back Russian troops that landed in helicopters on a strip of land connecting with the breakaway Crimean peninsula. (Financial Times, 03.17.14).
The head of Ukraine's security advisory body has said his country will deploy more troops along the border with Russia in a bid to "enhance border security." Ukraine's parliament on March 17 endorsed a presidential decree to carry out a partial mobilization involving 40,000 reservists. (RFE/RL, 03.17.14, RIA Novosti, 03.21.14).
Citing complaints from export-oriented businesses, Ukrainian agriculture consultancy APK-Inform reported that Russian customs officials had refused entry of all Ukrainian goods without explanation late on Wednesday. (Financial Times, 03.20.14).
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden reassured the leaders of Lithuania and Latvia that the U.S. would defend any NATO members against aggression and warned that Russia was on a "dark path" to isolation over its actions in Ukraine. Earlier Biden assured Poland's president that the United States remains more than capable of stepping up militarily if Russia's aggression were to spread to NATO allies. (Wall Street Journal, 03.19.14, 03.20.14).
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has reiterated during a visit to Kyiv his appeal for a peaceful resolution to the Crimea crisis on the basis of the UN Charter, "including respect for the sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity of Ukraine." (RIA Novosti, 03.21.14).
"We have seen Russia rip up the international rule book, trying to redraw the map of Europe and creating, in just a few weeks, the most serious security crisis since the end of the Cold War," NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said. (RFE/RL, 03.20.14).
The Russian government plans to discuss measures of support for Transnistria in connection with the blockade that Ukraine actually declared against this republic on March 20, said Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. The speaker of Transdniestria’s parliament had written to his Russian counterpart asking about the possibility of the 500,000-strong territory joining the Russian Federation. (Interfax, Financial Times, 03.18.14).
Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev has defended Russia's takeover of Crimea, saying that the referendum among the peninsula's voters corrected a historical "mistake." (Moscow Times, 03.18.14).
The government of Kyrgyzstan says it recognizes Crimea's referendum and decision to join the Russian Federation as legitimate. (RFE/RL, 03.20.14).
Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambaev has signed a decree confirming the resignation of the government. (RFE/RL, 03.19.14).
Georgian officials have arrested a forensic pathologist who examined the body of Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania after his suspicious death in 2005. (RFE/RL, 03.20.14).

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