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Russia in Review

Published: March 14, 2014

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for March 7-14, 2014

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for March 7-14, 2014

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

  • Russia is planning to deploy mobile security robots in 2014 to protect its strategic missile facilities, the Defense Ministry said Wednesday. The ministry said the robots will carry out reconnaissance and patrol missions, detect and destroy stationary or moving targets, and provide fire support for security personnel at the guarded facilities. (RIA Novosti, 03.12.14).
  • Just weeks before he heads to The Hague to meet with world leaders for the third Nuclear Security Summit, President Obama has unveiled a budget that includes more than $220 million in cuts to nuclear security programs in the next fiscal year. (USA Today, 03.08.14).
  • The cost of securing U.S. non-strategic nuclear weapons deployed in Europe is expected to nearly double to meet increased U.S. security standards, according to the Pentagon’s FY2015 budget request.  (FAS Strategic Security Blog, 03.11.14).

Iran nuclear issues:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has spoken to his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani about Ukraine and expressed his appreciation of Tehran's "constructive approach" in talks with six world powers on its nuclear program. (Reuters, 03.14.14).
  • Iran's uranium-enrichment program and unfinished heavy-water reactor were each up for discussion during five hours of talks held on Wednesday by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Sergei Ryabkov, his Russian equivalent. Araqchi, who departed for Beijing after speaking with Ryabkov in Moscow, linked his travel directly to next week's high-level nuclear meeting. The discussion would bring Iranian envoys together with counterparts from China and Russia, as well as France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. (GSN, 03.13.14).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to and from Afghanistan:

  • Asked whether the United States could still get its equipment out of Afghanistan even if Russia cut off supply routes in retaliation for American sanctions against Russia,  Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., said, ''Yes.'' (New York Times, 03.13.14).
  • NATO announced on Monday it would begin surveillance flights over Romania and Poland to better keep tabs on the security situation in Ukraine. (Reuters, 03.11.14).

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

  • “The unfounded threats towards Russia from the United States and NATO over its policy on Ukraine are seen by us as an unfriendly gesture,” said the Russian defense ministry in a statement. Those threats, the statement said, have created new circumstances, giving Russia the right to pull out of the inspections required under the START treaty with the United States and a separate agreement with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. (Washington Post, 03.08.14).
  • The United States is not ready to cut cooperation with Russia on important and strategic issues concerning disarmament and non-proliferation, and the situation in Ukraine does not affect this, deputy director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's department on security and disarmament, Vladislav Antonyuk, said. (Interfax, 03.12.14).
  • The Obama administration expects that Russia will continue to abide by existing arms-control agreements with the United States, despite icy relations between Washington and Moscow over Russian military involvement in Ukraine, said Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, White House coordinator for defense policy, countering weapons of mass destruction, and arms control. (GSN, 03.12.14).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

  • No significant developments.

Cyber security:

  • The Kremlin's press service said the March 14 DDoS attack knocked out the president's website several times and that measures are being taken to get the site back up. The Russian central bank also said its website was under attack. (RFE/RL, 03.14.14).
  • Russian Internet service providers have blocked access to several major opposition sites and the LiveJournal blog of anti-corruption crusader Alexei Navalny, Lenta.ru reported Thursday. The Federal Service for Mass Communications and IT Oversight said Thursday that access had been restricted because of "calls for participation in unauthorized rallies."  (The Moscow Times, 03.14.14).
  • According to a report published by the British-based defense and security company BAE Systems, dozens of computer networks in Ukraine have been infected for years by a cyberespionage ''tool kit'' called Snake, which seems similar to a system that several years ago plagued the Pentagon, where it attacked classified systems. (New York Times, 03.09.14).

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Gazprom, disregarding European Commission plans to delay talks, said it expected to sign deals this month on building its major South Stream pipeline to carry gas to Central and Southern Europe without crossing Ukraine. (Reuters, 03.18.14).
  • Rosneft wants to break the monopoly of Gazprom to export gas via pipelines, signaling a flare-up between powerful clans. (Reuters, 03.11.14).
  • The dramatic increase in oil supply from the U.S. and Canada—coupled with a surprise surge in Iraqi output—helped stave off global demand pressures brought on by a cold U.S. winter and geopolitical concerns over rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine. (Wall Street Journal, 03.14.14).

Bilateral economic ties:

  • The crisis in Ukraine has not jeopardized the longstanding relationship between the U.S. Air Force and the Russian company that builds engines for the rockets used to launch large U.S. government satellites. (Reuters, 03.13.14).

Other bilateral issues:

  • Deputy Secretary of State William Burns stressed Russia's "self-interest" in eliminating Syria's chemical arms. (GSN, 03.07.14).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the government Wednesday to ensure economic stability and keep inflation at a low level. He also told the country's top finance and economy officials that the current forecast for gross domestic product this year was unacceptable. (Reuters, 03.12.14, Wall Street Journal, 03.12.14).
  • Economists have cut forecasts for Russian growth amid fears about the impact from the crisis in Ukraine and Moscow's apparent determination to take over the Crimea region. Advisory, a research firm also said it cut its forecast to 1% for this year from 1.9% previously. The government's official forecast envisages a recovery to 2.5% growth. (Wall Street Journal, 03.11.14).
  • The Bank of Russia will maintain a tight monetary policy well into the foreseeable future, it said Friday, as it tries to restore stability in the financial sector, which has been battered by the crisis in Ukraine and concerns about possible sanctions against Moscow. (Wall Street Journal, 03.14.14).
  • President Vladimir Putin's approval rating has risen to 71.6 percent from 68.8 percent in May 2012, when the he began his third term in office, a poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center, or VTsIOM, revealed.  And, according to the Public Opinion Foundation, 53 percent of respondents said they would vote for Vladimir Putin if presidential elections were held this week, as opposed to 48 percent a week ago. (RIA Novosti, 03.12.14, 03.13.14).

Defense:

  • Dmitry Rogozin, the deputy prime minister in charge of defense has said "overt threats" by the U.S. and NATO demonstrate the necessity of equipping the Russian army with modern weapons.  (RIA Novosti, 03.09.14).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • No significant developments.

Foreign affairs and trade:

  • Foreigners perceive Russia as "unpredictable and aggressive" and it will take Moscow years to improve that image, the head of Rossotrudnichestvo, Konstantin Kosachyov, has said. (The Moscow Times, 03.14.14).
  • Lithuania's prime minister said the political crisis in nearby Ukraine should give his government fodder to steer public opinion in favor of joining the euro zone in 2015. (Wall Street Journal, 03.14.14).
  • Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is taking advantage of the rift between Russia and the United States over Ukraine to press ahead with plans to crush the rebellion against his rule and secure his reelection for another seven-year term, unencumbered by pressure to compromise with his opponents. (Washington Post, 03.08.14)

Crisis in Ukraine:

  • Ukraine-related developments in US-Russian relations:
    • An 11th-hour bid by Secretary of State John Kerry to ease the escalating crisis over the Kremlin’s intervention in Crimea ended inconclusively on Friday, with his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, declaring that Russia and the West have “no common vision” about the events that led to the impasse. Russian President Vladimir Putin “is not prepared to make any decision regarding Ukraine until after the referendum on Sunday,” Kerry told a news conference after the meeting. The two also discussed ways to settle the political crisis in Ukraine on Tuesday. (New York Times, Bloomberg, 03.14.14, RIA Novosti, New York Times, 03.13.14).
    • A day after President Obama ordered sanctions over Russia's military takeover in Crimea, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphatically rejected the U.S. position, saying his country could not "ignore calls for help" from ethnic Russians in Ukraine after what he has termed an illegitimate power grab there by pro-Western agitators. (Washington Post, 03.09.14).
  • Ukraine-related developments in Russia:
    • The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement Friday that said the nation reserved the right to intervene to defend ethnic Russians being threatened in eastern Ukraine. At least one person was killed and 29 injured in violence when a hostile pro-Russian crowd confronted pro-Ukrainian activists in the city of Donetsk. And on Monday Russia's government accused right-wing militants and Ukraine's new pro-Western government of causing "chaos" in the eastern part of the country. (Washington Post, 03.10.14, Fox News, 03.14.14).
    • The Russian Defense Ministry on Thursday acknowledged significant operations involving armored and airborne troops in the Russian regions of Belgorod, Kursk and Rostov, which are next to eastern Ukraine. Also on Friday, Russian military training missions began over the Mediterranean Sea. (Reuters, New York Times, 03.14.14.)
    • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov refused to say on Friday whether Russia would move to recognize Crimea as an independent state or to absorb it as a region of the Russian Federation. Instead, he repeated President Vladimir V. Putin’s pledge to “respect the choice” of voters in a referendum on secession on Sunday, after which Russia would announce its next steps. (New York Times, 03.14.14).
    • Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by telephone with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Friday, the Kremlin said in a statement, and emphasized that the decision to hold the referendum on Crimea’s status “fully complies with international law and the United Nations Charter.” (New York Times, 03.14.14).
    • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov brushed aside on Friday the threats of sanctions and other punitive measures made by President Obama and European leaders. He said the sanctions that have been widely discussed by officials and reported in the news media would be “a counterproductive instrument.” (New York Times, 03.14.14).
    • As the US considers imposing sanctions against Russia, concerns loom that Russia may be forced to declare its inability to pay off loans issued by US banks, Presidential aide Sergei Glazyev said. According to US Treasury data from the end of 2013, Russian investments in US government bonds total around $139 billion out of a total of $5.8 trillion of US debt held in foreign hands. (RAPSI, 03.04.14).
    • Russia has agreed to open negotiations on a possible monitoring mission in Ukraine backed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, according to a spokesman for the group's chairman. (Wall Street Journal. 03.13.14).
    • A Russian court issued an arrest warrant for Ukrainian far-right leader Dmytro Yarosh in absentia on Wednesday on charges of inciting terrorism, a symbolic move in support of Moscow's argument that "extremists" stole power in neighboring Ukraine. The defense team for Yarosh will appeal the arrest order. (Reuters, RAPSI, 03.13.14).
    • The State Duma will confirm the guarantees of restoring the rights for the Crimean Tatar people in the event of Crimea's reunification with Russia, lower house chairman Sergei Naryshkin said. (Interfax, 03.12.14).
    • Russia's economy is more vulnerable to changes in the global economic pattern than to possible sanctions from the West, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said Tuesday. Dvorkovich said that the government is constantly studying implications of possible penalties. He downplayed risks of sanctions. (Wall Street Journal, 03.12.14).
    • Russia intends to ship nine mobile power stations from Sochi to Crimea in order to avoid power outages if Ukraine decides to shut off electricity to the turbulent region. (The Moscow Times, 03.14.14).
  • Ukraine-related developments in the United States:
    • U.S. President Barack Obama and Ukraine’s interim prime minister have opened the door to a political solution that could lead to more autonomy for Crimea if Russian troops withdraw, as the United States embarked on a last-ditch diplomatic effort to defuse a crisis that reignited tensions between East and West. In a strong show of support, Obama met Yatsenyuk at the White House. (RFE/RL, 03.12.14, New York Times, 03.14.14).
    • Obama administration officials have concluded that they have the means through sanctions to badly damage the Russian economy, but others are wary of especially ruinous options that they argue could alienate allies as well as provoke a dangerous cycle of retaliation. Beyond freezing assets of individuals, the administration could sanction banks and potentially cut the country off from the dollar economy. (New York Times, 03.12.14).
    • With official comments from China appearing studiously neutral since the Ukraine crisis began, President Barack Obama spoke to Chinese President Xi Jinping late Sunday in a bid to get Beijing off the fence. (AP, 03.12.14).
    • Deputy National Security Adviser Tony Blinken said Sunday that if Crimea votes to join Russia in a referendum next week, the United States would not recognize it.  (Washington Post, 03.09.14).
    • "I do not believe that Crimea will slip out of Russia's hands," Former secretary of defense Robert Gates on "Fox News Sunday.       “You think Crimea's gone?" asked host Chris Wallace. "I do," responded Gates. (Washington Post, 03.09.14).
    • U.S. Senator John McCain has called for the faster integration of Georgia and Moldova into the structures of NATO amid the ongoing crisis in Ukraine's Crimea region. (RFE/RL, 03.12.14).
    • In Kiev, a bipartisan delegation of eight United States senators led by John McCain, a Republican of Arizona, and an Illinois Democrat, Richard Durbin, came to Independence Square, the site of the protests, to show support for the interim government on Friday. (New York Times, 03.14.14).
    • The U.S. has sent a team of investigators to Ukraine to help track down assets that Kiev’s new government alleges were stolen by ousted president Viktor Yanukovych. (Wall Street Journal, 03.10.14).
    • U.S. business groups are pushing to ensure that any economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States are joined by as much of the rest of the world as possible, warning Congress and the Obama administration that unilateral U.S. action would put tens of billions of dollars of American investment and trade at risk of retaliation. (Washington Post, 03.08.16).
    • On Thursday Austrian authorities arrested a Ukrainian billionaire, Dmitry V. Firtash, on bribery and other charges at the request of American law enforcement agencies.  (New York Times, 03.14.14).
    • Russia's dispatch of troops to Crimea is a threat to ethnic enclaves across Eastern Europe, and the U.S. military will be forced to intervene if its NATO obligations are triggered, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has said. (Moscow Times, 03.11.14).
    • The U.S. and Poland began war games on Tuesday as Washington makes a gesture of support for its eastern NATO allies after Russia's intervention in Ukraine, but bad weather delayed naval maneuvers with Romania and Bulgaria. (Reuters, 03.14.14).
    • A solid 56 percent of Americans support a coordinated effort of U.S. and European sanctions against Russia, which continues to strengthen its grip over the Crimean peninsula. According to Washington Post-ABC News poll, Nearly as many strongly support sanctions (28 percent) as oppose them altogether (31 percent). (ABC, 03.11.14).
    • Following the dispatch of Russian troops to Crimea, a poll conducted by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal showed that 72 percent of Americans view Russia as an adversary rather than an ally. Only 5 percent of Americans have a positive view of Russian President Vladimir Putin, while 63 percent view him negatively, the poll results released on Wednesday showed. (The Moscow Times, 03.14.14).
    • The U.S. company that handles public relations for Russia in the U.S. has distanced itself from the Ukraine crisis, saying that it advises the Kremlin largely on economic development, not foreign policy. (Reuters, 03.12.14).
  • Ukraine-related developments in other countries and international organizations:
    • The European Union and the United States have threatened to impose visa bans on at least thirteen prominent Russian politicians and businessmen in the event that Crimea, the autonomous region in southern Ukraine, passes a referendum on Sunday to join the Russian Federation.  Bild newspaper of Germany reported, citing diplomatic sources in Brussels and Washington, that the targeted list of Russians include defense minister Sergei Shoigu, deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin, the chief of the presidential administration Sergei Ivanov, the secretary of the National Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, and various other close associates of President Vladimir Putin, including Federal Security Service chief Alexander Bortnikov. In addition, Alexei Miller, the chief executive of Gazprom, and Igor Sechin, boss of Rosneft, may also be hit with the ban. The measures are also coordinated with Switzerland, Turkey, Japan and Canada. If approved by EU foreign ministers at a meeting on Monday, the seven-page document would be the first sanctions imposed by the European Union against Russia since the end of the Cold War. (Reuters, 02.12.14, (International Business Times, 03.14.14).
    • Leaders of the G7 group of advanced economies told Russia on March 12 it risked facing international action unless it stops its moves toward the "annexation" of Crimea. (RFE/RL, 03.12.14).
    • German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned Russia it risks "massive" political and economic damage over its actions in Crimea. Using her strongest language since the start of the crisis, Merkel told German lawmakers at the Bundestag in Berlin on March 13 that "if Russia continues on its course of the past weeks, it will not only be a catastrophe for Ukraine" but would change the EU's relationship with Russia. At the same time Merkel and her team have come to the conclusion that the chance to roll back Moscow's intervention has passed, according to officials and analysts. (Wall Street Journal, New York Times, 03.13.14, RFE/RL, 03.13.14).
    • “Sanctions hurt both sides, that’s quite clear,” Germany’s defense minister, Ursula von der Leyen, said Monday. “But if you look at the numbers, Russia has 15 percent of its G.D.P. depending on trade with Europe, Europe only 1 percent,” she added. (New York Times, 03.13.14).
    • The options being considered by officials from Brussels to Washington include larger exports of U.S.-made natural gas, reversing the flow of natural gas through pipelines from Western Europe back into Ukraine, and accelerating plans across Europe to buy more energy from countries other than Russia. (Wall Street Journal, 03.10.14).
    • The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Thursday it will strengthen cooperation with Ukraine while putting Russia's accession process on hold. (Dow Jones, 03.13.14).
    • Poland is skeptical planned sanctions will be enough to halt Moscow's expansion into Ukraine. (Wall Street Journal, 03.14.14).
    • Kyrgyzstan's Foreign Ministry says ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych cannot be considered the legitimate leader of the country. (RFE/RL, 03.11.14).
  • General:
    • The new pro-Russian Crimean regional government has set a March 16 date for a referendum on secession from Ukraine and joining Russia. Unlike the previously scheduled referendum set for March 30, this one appears to be unambiguous about detaching Crimea from Ukraine in the event of a "yes" vote.  The results of the referendum are expected to be announced on March 17, referendum committee chairman Mykhailo Malyshev said. (Interfax, 03.13.14, Washington Post, 03.08.14).
    • The Crimean peninsula's parliament voted on Tuesday for independence from Ukraine ahead of a referendum on joining Russia while Washington and Moscow locked horns in one of their fiercest clashes since the Cold War. The lawmakers announced that the March 11 adoption of the declaration is a technical step ahead of a referendum on March 16. (AFP, RFE/RL, 03.11.14).
    • Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has said he hopes to sign the political chapters of an EU association agreement next week. (The Moscow Times, 03.14.14).
    • Viktor Yanukovych, ousted as Ukrainian president, has reiterated from exile that he is still the country's leader and remains commander of the country's armed forces. (RFE/RL, 03.11.14).
    • Ukraine will not launch a military intervention in Crimea, as it would draw defenses away from the country's eastern border, where a significant buildup of Russian tank units has taken place, Ukraine's acting president has said. (The Moscow Times, 03.13.14).
    • Andrei Parubiy, secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said that Russia has deployed troops close to the border, creating the "threat of a full-scale invasion from various directions." In Moscow, Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov denied a military buildup on the Russia-Ukraine border. He also said Moscow has accepted a request that Ukraine made Tuesday to conduct a surveillance flight over the Russian territory (AP, 03.13.14).
    • Ukraine’s acting defense minister said his country had only 6,000 combat-ready infantry.  Ukraine’s government estimates that Russia has deployed a force of 220,000 troops, 1,800 tanks and more than 400 helicopters close to Ukraine's border. (LA Times, 03.13.14. Reuters, 03.14.14).
    • The western base of the Ukrainian Navy in Odessa will acquire the status of the main naval base of the country in April, a source from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said. (Interfax, 03.12.14).
    • Ukraine may have to arm itself with nuclear weapons if the United States and other world powers refuse to enforce a security pact that obligates them to reverse the Moscow-backed takeover of Crimea, Pavlo Rizanenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, said. (USA Today, 03.11.14).
    • The former governor of Ukraine's eastern region of Kharkiv has been arrested in Kyiv. (RFE/RL, 03.11.14).

Russia’s other neighbors:

  • All military flights previously transiting through a U.S. air facility in Kyrgyzstan have been transferred to a new base in Romania. (RIA Novosti, 03.07.14).
  • Swiss prosecutors say they're investigating Gulnara Karimova, the eldest daughter of authoritarian Uzbek President Islam Karimov, on suspicion of money laundering.  (RFE/RL, 03.12.14).

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