Russia in Review

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for February 28 - March 7, 2014

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for February 28 - March 7, 2014

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

• U.S. Energy Department efforts to secure vulnerable nuclear materials in Russia have stalled, said Anne Harrington, deputy administrator for the National Nuclear Security Administration. A summary of the 2015 U.S. budget proposal attributed a planned 27 percent cut to the International Material Protection and Cooperation program in part on the expiration of the Cooperative Threat Reduction umbrella agreement. Harrington said this was partially the result of a freeze on work aimed at securing buildings in Russia where sensitive nuclear materials are stored. (GSN, 03.05.14).
• At the  upcoming Nuclear Security Summit the United States will be seeking "a core group of countries" to spearhead the adoption of potentially binding rules that could help prevent atomic materials from proliferating or falling into the hands of terrorists, said Laura Holgate, a senior director on the National Security Council staff. (GSN, 03.06.14).
• The U.S. Department of Energy plans to halt work on a multibillion-dollar plant that would reprocess plutonium from nuclear weapons but faces spiraling construction costs. (Reuters, 03.04.14).

Iran nuclear issues:

• No significant developments.

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to and from Afghanistan:

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• The Pentagon’s fiscal 2015 budget request funds new projects aimed at making U.S. ballistic missile defenses more accurate and reliable. One of three such initiatives is redesigning the pivotal Ground Based Interceptor’s Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle, to the tune of $100 million in the upcoming fiscal year and $738 million through fiscal 2019. The project is part of the Missile Defense Agency’s $7.46 billion budget request, unveiled on Tuesday. (GSN, 03.05.14).

Nuclear arms control:

• The upper U.S. chamber on Thursday voted to confirm Rose Gottemoeller to serve as undersecretary of State for arms control and international security. A 55-45 partisan vote on Wednesday ended debate over the pick. (GSN, 03.06.14).
• Rose Gottemoeller, Undersecretary of State for arms control and international security, said the “United States will be patient in our pursuit of ratification” of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, “but we will also be persistent." (GSN, 03.04.14).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• No significant developments.

Bilateral economic ties:

• Exxon Mobil Corp. has more at stake in Russia than any other U.S. energy company but is confident its projects will remain on track despite recent tensions between the West and the Kremlin. (Wall Street Journal. 03.07.14).

Other bilateral issues:

• Russia's anti-gay laws and attempts by the ousted Ukrainian president to quash opposition protests were among the world's most grievous human rights violations to emerge over the past year, the U.S. State Department said in its annual report. (The Moscow Times, 02.28.14).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The Russian ruble is being pressured by external factors and there are no fundamental reasons for it to weaken, Bank of Russia Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina said. The Russian ruble fell to more than 37 against the dollar and more than 51.2 to the euro, prompting the Central Bank of Russia to lift its key interest rate by 1.5 percentage points to 7%, in an effort to stabilize the markets. Share prices of Russian companies plunged more than 11 percent. (Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, 03.03.14, 03.05.14).
• The first batch of 56 mixed uranium-plutonium oxide (MOX) fuel assemblies has been shipped to Beloyarsk 4 as Russia's first-of-a-kind BN-800 fast reactor prepares to start up. (WNN, 03.06.14).
• The top 100 of the planet's wealthiest individuals includes 10 Russians, according to a Forbes ranking published Monday, with telecoms and Internet magnate Alisher Usmanov the richest of them, taking 40th place with a net worth of $18.6 billion. (Vedomosti, 03.04.14).

Defense:

• Moscow successfully test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile on Tuesday. Russia is planning to carry out two tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles this month in addition to Tuesday’s launch. said. (GSN, RIA Novosti, 03.05.14).
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered forces engaged in military exercises to go back to their permanent bases, said. (Interfax, 03.04.14)
• The Russian Navy’s Viktor Leonov SSV-175, part of the Vishnya class of intelligence ships, entered Cuban waters earlier this week. (Reuters, 03.03.14).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Former Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov has been amnestied under the terms of a December law. (RFE/RL, 03.07.14).
• The Investigative Committee has detained billionaire political leader Gleb Fetisov, weeks after he ramped up his political ambitions by partnering up with prominent opposition figures and launching a new political party. (The Moscow Times, 03.28.14).
• Aleksei A. Navalny, Russia's leading opposition figure, was placed under house arrest on Friday and ordered not to use the Internet or telephone for two months. (The New York Times, 03.01.14).

Foreign affairs and trade:

• No significant developments.

Crisis in Ukraine:

• Operator of Ukraine's nuclear power plants Energoatom said the NPPs were operating "in normal mode," though physical security at the plants had been stepped up by both its own security staff and by military units of the interior ministry. However, future fuel supplies for the plants are uncertain. Dmitry Rogozin, Russian deputy prime minister, said, "The Ukrainian nuclear power plants have fuel reserves for March and April." In the meantime, Ukraine's parliament called for international monitors to help protect its nuclear power plants on Sunday as tension mounted with Russia. (WNN, 03.06.14, Reuters, 03.02.14).
• The Crimean parliament voted in favor of joining Russia on Thursday and its pro-Russian government announced that a referendum would be held on the decision on March 16. Crimean Prime Minister Sergei Askyonov said all state property would be nationalized, the Russian ruble adopted as the new currency, and all Ukrainian troops forced to either leave Crimea or surrender to the new government once the decision is finalized. Earlier, Askyonov backed the request made by Viktor Yanukovych to send Russian troops to Ukraine. (Reuters, 03.07.14, Interfax, 03.04.14).
• Ukraine's United Nations accused Russian forces of using stun grenades against Ukrainian soldiers, trespassing in Ukrainian airspace and deploying 16,000 troops to the Crimean peninsula. The Russian ambassador, Vitaly I. Churkin, who sought the Security Council meeting, told fellow members that ''ultranationalists,'' including anti-Semites, had threatened Russians and Russian speakers inside Ukraine, prompting Russia to act.  (New York Times, 03.04.14).
• Ukraine's interim president has moved to disband the Crimean local legislature after it approved a referendum to ask the region's voters whether they wanted the peninsula to become part of Russia. (The Moscow Times, 03.07.14).
• Ukraine appealed for assistance from NATO on Saturday, asking it to use all possible measures to ensure its territorial integrity and protect its people.  (RIA Novosti, 03.07.14).
• Ukraine's ousted President Viktor Yanukovych asked Russia to deploy its troops across the border to establish "peace, law and order" and "defend the people of Ukraine," Russia's ambassador to the UN has said. (The Moscow Times, 03.05.14).
• Ukraine’s security-service agents detained a leader of pro-Russia protests here who had declared himself governor of the Donetsk region, as Ukrainian authorities moved to quash a separatist movement. (Wall Street Journal, 03.06.14).
• Ukraine's telecommunications system has come under attack, with equipment installed in Russian-controlled Crimea used to interfere with the mobile phones of members of parliament, the head of Ukraine's SBU security service said Tuesday. The crisis in Ukraine has spread to the Internet, where hackers from both sides are launching large cyber-attacks against opposing news organizations. (New York Times, 03.04.14, Reuters, 03.05.14).
• According to a poll released on March 5, parliamentarian and businessman Petro Poroshenko is the leading candidate in the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine. The Center for Social and Marketing Research released the results of the poll in advance of the May 25 election. (Kiev Post, 03.07.14).
• Slightly more than 50 percent of Ukrainians polled would vote for joining the EU, while about 31 percent would prefer the Custom Union, according to a survey conducted by Ukraine's SOCIS pollster over the past week. (The Moscow Times, 03.07.144).
• Ukraine-related developments in Russia:
  • Leaders of both houses of Russia’s Parliament said on Friday that they would support a vote by Crimea to break away from Ukraine and become a new region of the Russian Federation, the first public signal that the Kremlin was backing the secessionist move that Ukraine. (The New York Times, 03.08.14).
  • Russia announced it will send a mission to observe the March 16 referendum in Crimea. In Moscow, a Crimean delegation led by Volodymyr Konstantynov, head of Crimea's regional parliament, was applauded by Russian parliamentarians, a day after Crimean lawmakers voted to join Russia and validate the decision in a referendum (Washington Post, 03.07.14).
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin asked for and received approval to use force in Ukraine from the Federation Council on Saturday and many observers have said that unidentified soldiers currently in de facto control of the largely pro-Russia Crimea region are Russian.  He said that he would not consider the possibility of annexing Crimea.  (The Moscow Times, 03.05.14).
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin defended Russia's right to send troops into Ukraine to protect compatriots living in "terror," but said he would only use force as a last resort. He said that it was “unnecessary” to send troops to Ukraine, but that he reserved the right to deploy forces in “extreme circumstances. (The Moscow Times, 03.05.14).
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the current Ukrainian government and president are illegitimate and that they were installed as a result of an “anti-constitutional coup and armed seizure of power."  He also said that he sees no future in politics for Viktor Yanukovych.  (The Moscow Times, 03.05.14).
  • Gazprom will remove a discount on the price it charges Ukraine for gas from April, President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday. He said Ukraine's debt would grow to almost $2 billion from between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion currently if it fails to pay in full for February gas deliveries. (Reuters, 03.05.14).
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday urged Western and Ukrainian leaders to stand by political deals reached before Viktor Yanukovych was ousted as Ukrainian president last month. He denied that Russia is in control of armed militias that have sprouted across Crimea in opposition to the new government in Kiev. (Wall Street Journal, 03.05.14).
  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Wednesday denied that Russian forces are currently deployed in Ukraine's Crimea region and said that video footage showing Russian license plates on the military vehicles was "complete nonsense.” (The Moscow Times, 03.06.14).
  • Russia’s Investigative Committee spokesman Vladimir Markin on Monday said Dmitry Yarosh, the leader of Ukraine’s ultranationalist group Right Sector, was wanted for "public appeals to commit acts of terrorism" on Russian soil.  (The Moscow Times, 03.04.14).
  • Moscow will respond should the European Union decide to impose sanctions against Russians, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. (Interfax, 03.07.14)
  • Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Monday ordered state-road building corporation Avtodor, or Russian Highways, to create a subsidiary company that will oversee the building of a bridge across the Kerch Strait, connecting Crimea with Russia's Krasnodar region. (The Moscow Times, 03.04.14).
  • Anatoly Tsyganok, head of the Center for Military Forecasting, said that the cost of a military action in Crimea would be comparable to the cost of the five-day conflict with Georgia. According to calculations made by the Strategy and Technology Analysis Center, peace in South Ossetia cost Russia about $400 million. (RBTH, 03.04.14).
  • Loans worth $8 billion being sought by Russian companies from international banks are in danger of falling through because of the crisis in Ukraine. (The Moscow Times, 03.06.14).
  • Before Russian troops moved into Crimea, there was little enthusiasm for an intervention: a Levada poll showed that 63% of Russians didn't sympathize with either side in Ukraine's conflict. A new poll by VTsIOM, a state-run institution, shows that Putin's approval is higher than it's been since the middle of 2012. (Forbes, 03.06.14).
• Ukraine-related developments in the United States:
  • In a demonstration of support for Ukraine’s fledgling government, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arrived here on Tuesday with an offer of $1 billion in American loan guarantees and pledges of technical assistance. House Republican leaders fast-tracked a $1 billion loan package to Ukraine on Thursday.  (New York Times, 03.05.14, Foreign Policy, 03.06.14).
  • U.S. Vice President Joe Biden has told new Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk in a telephone conversation that the interim government in Kiev has Washington's full support. (The Moscow Times, 03.28.14).
  • The US Navy has confirmed that a guided missile destroyer, the USS Truxtun, is heading to the Black Sea, for what the US military said is a “routine” deployment, decided long before the crisis in Ukraine, which has divided world powers. (Russia Today, 03.06.14).
  • ''We have a weak and indecisive president that invites aggression,'' Senator Lindsey Graham said. Senator John McCain complained that Obama's foreign policy is ''feckless,'' so that ''nobody believes in America's strength anymore.'' Representative Mike Rogers, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, worried that Russia is ''running circles around us.'' (The New York Times, 03.06.14).
• Ukraine-related developments in US-Russian relations:
  • President Obama warned Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone on Thursday that his country’s intervention in the Crimean Peninsula is in violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Russia cannot ignore the requests for help that it has been receiving, and it has been acting appropriately and in total compliance with international law, Putin told Obama. Obama and Putin also had a tense 90-minute phone call last weekend. (ABC, 03.06.14, Interfax, 03.07.14).
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin flatly denied that Russian troops had occupied Crimea and said the United States government had interfered in Ukraine ''from across the pond in America as if they were sitting in a laboratory and running experiments on rats, without any understanding of the consequences.'' (The New York Times, 03.05.14).
  • U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that the signatories of the Budapest Memorandum agreed to “refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.” But Russian president Vladimir Putin no longer felt bound by the memorandum. Ukraine’s revolution, he said, has produced a new state with which Russia has no binding agreements.  (U.S. State Department, 03.05.14, The Economist, 03.08.14.)
  • Russia’s Federation Council urged the withdrawal of the Russian ambassador in Washington, following strong statements from U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry, a move that President Vladimir Putin rejected.  (The Moscow Times, 03.05.14).
  • The United States took the first steps toward slapping sanctions on Russia for sending troops into Ukraine’s Crimea region Thursday, but stopped short of naming names. The U.S. said it would deny visas to a list of Russian and Ukrainian officials it considers responsible for the incursion into Ukraine and laid out far-reaching financial sanctions that could come later. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned the West of "mutual damage" if any sanctions are imposed. (Wall Street Journal, 03.05.14, (Foreign Policy, 03.06.14).
  • The so-called mil-to-mil relationship between the U.S. and Russia took a turn for the worse l after the Pentagon announced that it would not participate with the Russians in two exercises and would suspend participation in an ongoing, strategic dialogue with which it has participated with the Russians. (Foreign Policy, 03.04.14).
  • U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, in a call Monday to Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, urged Russia to pull back its forces from Ukraine and to support the "immediate deployment" of international monitors. (Wall Street Journal, 03.03.14).
  • On Wednesday the top diplomats of Russia and the United States agreed at their meeting that they should help Ukraine to implement the EU-brokered reconciliation deal. "We have agreed that Ukrainians need assistance to implement the February 21 accord," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. He met with US Secretary of State John Kerry in Paris. (RIA Novosti, 03.05.14).
  • With more than 6,000 airborne and naval forces, Russia has taken control of the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine and appears to be preparing to occupy the territory, a senior Obama administration official said Sunday. “Russian forces now have complete operational control of the Crimean peninsula, some 6,000-plus airborne and naval forces, with considerable materiel," the official said in a briefing for reporters. (Wall Street Journal, 03.02.14).
  • U.S. spy agencies were split over Moscow's intentions ahead of Russia's military intervention in Crimea, and the differences have prompted a congressional review. Pentagon analysts concluded on Friday that there would be no movements in the next 24 hours while Central Intelligence Agency analysts were "more circumspect," a U.S. official said, allowing for possibility of a Russian move. (Wall Street Journal, 03.05.14).
  • The U.S. standoff with Russia over Ukraine has imperiled a host of the Obama administration's most important diplomatic and security initiatives, U.S. and Western officials said. U.S. officials are betting Moscow will continue to engage in negotiations over Syria and Iran. (Wall Street Journal, 03.04.14).
  • Despite a looming collapse of U.S.-Russian bilateral relations, the standoff over Ukraine has not had any impact on commercial space ventures and intergovernmental space projects, such as the International Space Station, or ISS. (Space.com, 03.06.14).
• Ukraine-related developments in other countries and international organizations:
  • Seven countries in the Group of Eight have condemned the eighth member, Russia, for clearly "violating" international law with its military deployment in Ukraine, and they have suspended their participation in preparations for a Russia-hosted G8 summit in June. (The Moscow Times, 03.07.14).
  • After an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday, European leaders said they were prepared to impose travel bans and asset freezes on senior Russian officials if Russia doesn't begin negotiations with Ukraine within days and quickly make conciliatory moves. (Wall Street Journal, 03.07.14).
  • A statement issued by EU leaders called on Russia to immediately withdraw its armed forces to the areas of their permanent stationing and allow immediate access for international monitors to areas in eastern Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 03.07.14).
  • The European Union proposed a $15 billion aid package over seven years for Ukraine, with $2.2 billion in emergency funds to help the Ukrainian government avert a default.  The offer comes on top of the $1 billion in American loan guarantees to ease Ukraine’s economic transition announced here on Tuesday by Secretary of State John Kerry.  (Bloomberg, New York Times,  03.05.14)
  • The Council of the European Union has adopted sanctions to freeze the financial assets within the EU of ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and 17 other people identified as having misused state funds. (RIA Novosti, 03.07.14).
  • NATO urged Russia on Thursday to call back to bases its forces on the Ukrainian Crimea peninsula, saying it stood by Ukraine's territorial integrity in the face of the greatest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War. (Reuters, 03.07.14).
  • NATO has suspended plans to coordinate with Russia in guarding Syria's deadliest chemical weapons as they are destroyed. (GSN, 03.06.14).
  • The foreign ministers of the U.S., U.K. and Ukraine met Wednesday to discuss the crisis in Ukraine's Crimea region, but Russia's top diplomat refused to attend, according to U.S. and British officials. (Wall Street Journal, 03.05.14).
  • Germany's top diplomat Friday said Russia and the West are now further away from a solution to the Crimea crisis than they were two days ago. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said the European Union, the global community and neighboring states would "vehemently condemn" a Russian annexation of Crimea. (Wall Street Journal, 03.07.14).
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel, one of the most powerful figures in the European Union, signaled Monday that she wanted to hold off on sanctions while pursuing a diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian crisis. (Foreign Policy, 03.04.14).
  • A senior British official was photographed holding a document stating that London "should not support for now trade sanctions or close London's financial center to Russians." (Foreign Policy, 03.04.14).
  • Britain and its allies should consider taking more steps against Moscow to reflect Russia's current military moves in Crimea, as well as looking at ways to discourage Moscow from taking further action in Ukraine, the U.K.'s Prime Minister David Cameron said Wednesday. (Wall Street Journal, 03.05.14).
  • With small military standoffs around Ukrainian bases continuing in Russian-controlled Crimea and deepening anxiety about Russian intentions in eastern Ukraine, the British foreign secretary on Monday called the situation in Ukraine ‘‘the biggest crisis in Europe in the 21st century.’’ (New York Times, 03.04.14).
  • Late Tuesday, President Xi Jinping spoke with President Vladimir V. Putin by telephone about the continuing crisis in Ukraine. On Sunday, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qin Gang said "China is deeply concerned about the current situation in Ukraine.” As for external interference in the Ukraine, Qin emphasized that China respects "the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine" and said that a solution should be found "based on respect for international law and norms." Russia's foreign ministry says China agrees with the Kremlin about Moscow's military action in Ukraine. But China's foreign ministry differs with that assessment. (Wall Street Journal, 03.05.14; The New York Times, The Diplomat, 03.04.14).
  • Canada has suspended "all planned bilateral activities" with the Russian military, following a similar move by the U.S. over Moscow's deployment of troops in Ukraine. (The Moscow Times, 03.06.14).
  • The continuing crisis in Ukraine has the reputedly peaceful Swedes rethinking the nation's defense doctrine, and some are using the situation as a way to push for NATO membership in the run-up to parliamentary elections. (Wall Street Journal, 03.06.14).
  • In a leaked phone call, believed to be between EU foreign policy chief Cathy Ashton and Estonia's foreign minister, it is claimed Ukraine protesters were shot on the orders of their own leaders. (Channel 4, 03.05.14).
  • Estonia denied on Wednesday that a leaked telephone call showed that its foreign minister had blamed opponents of Ukraine's deposed president for sniper killings during last month's unrest - as Russian media have suggested.  (Reuters, 03.05.14).
  • Czech ministers for human rights and defense said on Monday that they think the Russian state-run nuclear engineering company Rosatom should be excluded from a $10 billion tender for new reactors following Moscow's occupation of the Crimean peninsula. (Wall Street Journal, 03.03.14).
  • The Iranian ambassador in Moscow expressed support for Russia as it faces threats of sanctions from Western countries for using its military in Ukraine, and called for increased economic ties between the two nations if sanctions are passed. (The Moscow Times, 03.04.14).
  • The United Nations envoy to Ukraine who was threatened by armed men in Crimea on Wednesday told CNN he hopes his experience "serves as a reminder to all how dangerous the situation has become." (CNN, 03.06.14).

If you wish to either unsubscribe from or subscribe to Russia in Review, please e-mail Simon Saradzhyan at simon_saradzhyan@hks.harvard.edu.