Russia in Review

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for February 21-27, 2014

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

A total of 58 world leaders will be meeting to agree on measures aimed at preventing nuclear terrorism at the international Nuclear Security Summit 2014 conference taking place in the World Forum in The Hague on 24 and 25 March 2014. (The Daily Post, 02.25.14).
A study by the U.S. Department of Energy concluded that the construction cost of the MOX Fuel Fabrication Facility could be as high as $10 billion - almost 20% higher than the previous estimate of $7.7 billion. (IPFM, 02.24.14).

Iran nuclear issues:

Russia’s permanent envoy to international organizations in Vienna Vladimir Voronkov said: “The Iranian nuclear program is one of those areas where the Russian and U.S. positions match up all the key issues.” (Kommersant, 02.21.14).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to and from Afghanistan:

Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian general staff, spoke with Gen. Philip Breedlove, the commander of NATO in Europe, and the ''two sides expressed concern over the situation in Ukraine.'' (New York Times, 02.26.14).

Missile defense:

The next U.S. military budget will include funds to overhaul Boeing Co's ground-based missile defense system and develop a replacement for an interceptor built by Raytheon Co, the Pentagon's chief weapons buyer said Tuesday, citing "bad engineering" on the existing system. (GSN, 02.25.14).

Nuclear arms control:

U.S. Rep. Buck McKeon, the outgoing House Armed Services Committee chairman said the United States should formally protest a suspected Russian violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. (GSN, 02.25.14).
Col. Gen. Viktor Yesin, the onetime chief of staff of Russia's strategic missile forces said U.S. antimissile tests that use medium-range targets have technically breached the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces "numerous" times. (GSN, 02.26.14).
U.S. Department of Defense requested the U.S. Air Force to begin an environmental assessment, which will collect information on the effects of eliminating no more than 50 Minuteman III ICBM silos. The decision was made as part of the effort to comply with the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. (Minotdailynews.com, 02.22.14).
U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel on Monday said the nation would keep its air-land-sea approach to the nuclear arsenal, despite new Pentagon spending cuts. (GSN, 02.24.14).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson on Wednesday warned that the Boston Marathon bombing may be a sign of things to come as the U.S. attempts to defend itself from terrorist attacks. (GSN, 02.27.14).

Cyber security:

No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

No significant developments.

Bilateral economic ties:

Russian Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev paid a visit to the Washington, DC on Feb. 24-26 to discuss possibilities for increased bilateral trade and investment with his American counterparts. “Our current bilateral trade is incomparable in size to the two countries' economies: it amounted to around $28 billion in 2013,” Ulyukayev said. ( Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 02.27.14).
Russia will lift a ban on pork shipments from several U.S. enterprises starting March 10, an official at the head of Russian agricultural watchdog said. The Russian government's decision to lift the restrictions on the supply of turkey from the U.S. takes effect in Russia on February 24. (Interfax, 02.24.14).

Other bilateral issues:

U.S. President Barack Obama called Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, and they talked for an hour about Ukraine and other points of division like Syria and Iran. American officials characterized the call as surprisingly productive. The two leaders agreed to focus on carrying out the settlement in Kiev. The U.S. and Russian governments have begun discussing a trade agreement for the two to sign. Russia will host the annual Group of 8 summit meeting in June in Sochi and Obama’s aides began considering whether to have a separate one-on-one meeting with Mr. Putin. (The New York Times, 02.21.14).
Michael McFaul officially relinquished his position as U.S. ambassador to Russia on Wednesday morning. Sheila Gwaltney, the deputy chief of mission in Moscow, will head the U.S. Embassy until McFaul's successor is appointed. Media reports have identified several likely candidates, including John Tefft, Steven Pifer, Carlos Pascual and Rose Gottemoeller. (The Moscow Times, 02.27.14).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

The Sochi Olympics "opened Russia's soul" to the world, as well as wrongfooted critics of the host country, President Vladimir Putin said in remarks broadcast Tuesday. Russia won 13 gold medals in Sochi, two more than runner-up Norway. Overall, Russian athletes won 33 medals, five more than the United States. (Reuters, 02.26.14, USA Today, 02.24.14).
Russia's ruble fell heavily Wednesday. The ruble slid to a weakest ever level of 42.10 against the basket of Euros and dollars that the central bank uses as key gauge of the ruble's value. (Wall Street Journal, 02.26.14).

Defense:

The Defense Ministry plans to expand its military presence to several key regions outside Russia in an effort to increase its long-range bomber coverage. "We need bases for refueling [our aircraft] near the equator, and in other places," Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said, adding that negotiations are close to producing a result. (The Moscow Times, 02.27.14).
Speaking at a press-conference in Moscow, Gen-Col. (ret.) Yesin said that the Strategic Rocket Forces expect the new heavy ICBM, named Sarmat, to be ready for deployment in 2020. (Russianforces.org, 02.25.14).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

A Russian court has sentenced seven activists to prison terms ranging from 30 months to four years after they were convicted of being involved in a "mass riot" during an anti-Kremlin protest in 2012. (Wall Street Journal, 02.24.14).

Foreign affairs and trade:

Russia and Finland have signed a new intergovernmental agreement on nuclear energy cooperation - a prerequisite for Russia to supply a reactor unit for Fennovoima's Hanhikivi project. (WNN, 02.26.14).

Russia's neighbors:

Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych fled Kiev amid deadly clashes in the capital last week. On Saturday, Ukrainian MPs voted to oust Mr Yanukovych and hold early presidential elections in May. Oleksandr Turchynov of the Fatherland opposition party received temporary presidential powers on Sunday. Ukraine's Health Ministry on Saturday said the clashes between protesters and riot police earlier this week left 82 people dead and 645 injured. (RFE/RL, 02.22.14, BBC, 02.27.14).
Ukraine has officially opened registration for snap presidential elections on May 25 after former President Viktor Yanukovych fled Kiev over the weekend. Vitaly Klitschko, world-famous boxer, announced his candidacy. He will be challenged by Kharkiv region Governor, Mikhail Dobkin — an ally of Yanukovych. Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has not yet announced her intentions, although her spokeswoman said that she had not yet ruled out a bid for the presidency. Tymoshenko was released from prison on Saturday. (The Moscow Times, 02.26.14).
Ukrainian lawmakers temporarily controlling Ukraine announced an interim government on Wednesday to be led by Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, a veteran public official. The reaction from the crowd was decidedly mixed. Officials said that Andriy Deshcytsia, a veteran Ukrainian diplomat, had been chosen as minister of foreign affairs. Andrey Parubiy, a member of Parliament and leader of the protest movement, was chosen as the head of the national security council, while Arsen Avakov, who is already working as interior minister, was chosen to remain in that post. (New York Times, 02.27.14).
Buildings of the Crimean parliament and administration were seized just before dawn on Feb. 27 by an unknown armed group. Thousands gathered in front of the parliament building with crowds split between those supporting the new government appointed by parliament in Kyiv and those calling for integration with Russia. In Moscow, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Russia would take measures to ensure the security of the facilities and weapons of Russia's Black Sea Naval Fleet, which is based on the Crimean coast. (Kyiv Post, 02.27.14, RFE/RL, 02.26.14).
Pro-Moscow demonstrators in Crimea have named a Russian citizen as the new mayor of Sevastopol. (The Moscow Times, 02.25.14).
The presidium of the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is initiating a referendum across the republic on the subject of "improving autonomous status and broadening its powers" and made the relevant announcement, Crimean Verkhovnaya Rada Chairman's Secretary Oksana Kornyichuk said.(Interfax, 02.27.14).
Ukraine's acting President Oleksandr Turchynov has assumed the duties of commander in chief of the country's armed forces. The move was announced in a decree published on the presidential website on February 26. It came shortly after Ukraine's acting interior minister, Arsen Avakov, announced he has disbanded the country's Berkut special police force. (RFE/RL, 02.26.14).
Ukraine this week appealed for $35 billion over two years to hold up its economy. Its economy flatlined in 2013 and the hryvna currency has slid 8 percent in three months. Tim Ash, an analyst at Standard Bank in London, said that while the dollar traded at around 8.30 against the hryvna, the country's debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 42%. "However, at an exchange rate of 10, this ratio increases to 46% of GDP," he said. (Reuters, Wall Street Journal, 02.26.14).
Russia has agreed to provide Viktor Yanukovych with protection. "I still see myself as the legitimate head of the Ukrainian state," Yanukovych said, but needed protection "from the actions of extremists". (BBC, 02.27.14).
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin ordered a surprise military exercise of ground forces on Ukraine’s doorstep Wednesday, intending to demonstrate his country’s military preparedness amid tensions with Europe and the United States over the turmoil gripping Russia’s western neighbor. (New York Times, 02.27.14).
The voice on the phone that persuaded President Yanukovych to give ground and end the bloodshed in Kiev last week belonged to an unexpected peacemaker: Vladimir Putin. A senior Western diplomat confirmed that "we have heard a similar version: Yanukovych said to Putin 'Will you back me and send in the troops?' and Putin said 'No'." (The Times, 02.26.14).
Russia questioned the legitimacy of the interim authorities in Ukraine and accusing them of using dictatorial and ''sometimes terrorist methods'' to usurp power and silence dissent in the country's Russian-speaking south and east. Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev suggested that economic agreements with Ukraine could be renegotiated, and declared that instability there was ''a real threat to our interests and to our citizens' lives and health. (New York Times, 02.27.14).
It is dangerous and counterproductive to try to force Ukraine into choosing the side – “with us or against us”, said Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. (RBTH, 02.25.14).
A scenario involving Russia's military intervention in the events in Ukraine has been completely ruled out, Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko said. The idea of a fast-track granting of the Russian citizenship and passports to Crimean residents is untimely, she said. (Interfax, 02.26.14).
Russia believes that U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice should urge Washington, rather than Moscow, to avoid the use of force in international conflicts. Rice said on February 23 that for Russia to send troops into Ukraine would be a "grave mistake." (RFE/RL, 02.24.14).
The White House on Thursday said that former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych had “abdicated” his powers and expressed support for the interim government that replaced him ahead of new elections. (Washington Examiner, 02.27.14).
The European Union pledged to "move fast" to draw up financial assistance for Ukraine but officials said privately it could be days—or even weeks—before the bloc announces an aid package. (Wall Street Journal, 02.26.14).
U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel warned Russia on Thursday to stay out of the turmoil in Ukraine, while NATO defense ministers issued repeated statements meant to show support for the new leadership in Kiev. (New York Times, 02.27.14).
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that Ukraine should not be forced to make a choice between Russia and the West. (RFE/RL, 02.26.14).
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns has said the United States is ready to cooperate with Ukraine on the road to holding free and fair presidential elections on May 25, 2014. (Interfax, 02.26.14).
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization's secretary-general condemned Thursday's violence in Crimea and called the armed takeover of a government building in the Ukrainian region "dangerous and irresponsible." (Wall Street Journal, 02.27.14).
German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen Thursday said a "breaking apart of Ukraine" must be avoided after dozens of armed men took control of parliament and local government offices in the ethnically Russian-dominated region of Crimea. (Wall Street Journal, 02.27.14).
Most Russians are following the events in Ukraine, and nearly half of them are sure that the recent protests in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities have been influenced by the West, as is seen from a public opinion poll of 1,603 people the Levada Center sociological service conducted in 130 populated areas of 45 regions of Russia on February 21-25. (Interfax, 02.27.14).
President Barack Obama met for about 20 minutes Monday with Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili Messrs. Obama and Garibashvili, who was at the White House for a meeting with Vice President Joe Biden, talked about Ukraine and Georgia’s recent transition of power, discussing how the two countries can increase trade ties, the officials said. (RFE/RL, 02.24.14).
At a meeting with Georgian Prime Minister Irakly Garibashvili U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has pledged Washington's support to help Georgians gain visa-free travel to the European Union. (RFE/RL, 02.26.14).
Richard Hoagland, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state, has held talks in Dushanbe focusing on bilateral ties and the situation in Afghanistan. (RFE/RL, 02.24.14).
Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisyan says his country has implemented about half of the measures needed to join the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. (RFE/RL, 02.24.14).

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