Russia in Review

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for January 17-24, 2014

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

While in the Netherlands on March 24-25, President Obama will attend the Nuclear Security Summit, "where world leaders will highlight progress made to secure nuclear materials and commit to future steps to prevent nuclear terrorism," the White House said in a statement. (UPI, 01.21.14).
U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel ordered immediate actions to define the depth of trouble inside the nuclear force, particularly the Air Force's intercontinental ballistic missile force. "Personnel failures within this force threaten to jeopardize the trust the American people have placed in us to keep our nuclear weapons safe and secure," he wrote. (AP, 01.23.14).
A three-year study by the Pentagon has concluded that American intelligence agencies are “not yet organized or fully equipped” to detect when foreign powers are developing nuclear weapons or ramping up their existing arsenals, and calls for using some of the same techniques that the National Security Agency has developed against terrorists. (New York Times, 01.23.14).

Iran nuclear issues:

The talks between the P5+1 and Iran on the final resolution of the Iranian nuclear problem will begin in several weeks and Moscow is cautiously optimistic over its success, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. (Voice of Russia, 01.21.14).
Assistant Secretary of State Tom Countryman said: “Certainly the fact that Russia has maintained political and economic relationships with Iran at the same period that Iran has cut those relationships with the United States has proven important in the P5 + 1 negotiating process with Iran.” (U.S. State Department, 01.19.14).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to and from Afghanistan:

No significant developments.

Missile defense:

Unilateral plans for creating a global missile defense are the strongest challenge to the idea of ridding the world of nuclear weapons, Russia's permanent representative at the UN office and other international organizations in Geneva, Alexei Borodavkin, told the conference on disarmament on Tuesday. (Itar-Tass, 01.12.14).

Nuclear arms control:

"I personally believe that the day will come when the human race will give up nuclear weapons, but it's nowhere in sight, meaning that not only Russia but also many other countries still have nuclear arsenals,” Russia's President Vladimir Putin said. (Voice of Russia, 01.22.14).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

The top military officers from the United States and Russia have opened discussions about using sophisticated American electronic equipment in a new effort to help secure the Winter Games in Sochi next month. The potential for a technological exchange was part of an extensive discussion in Brussels on Tuesday, when Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, held his first face-to-face meeting with his Russian counterpart, Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, chief of the general staff. (New York Times, 01.22.14).
American military assets have been offered to bolster security for the upcoming Sochi Olympic Games scheduled to open in less than three weeks, the Pentagon said Monday. "Air and naval assets, to include two Navy ships in the Black Sea, will be available if requested," press secretary Rear Admiral John F. Kirby said in a statement. (RIA Novosti, 01.21.14).
Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “I would like to again thank all our partners from North America, the United States, Europe, and Asia who actively cooperate with their Russian law enforcement and special services counterparts. Such joint work is on-going.” (Kremlin.ru, 01.19.14).
Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “We are working to ensure security in Sochi, using many forces and means. …. If anybody feels it is necessary for them to develop separate plans for guaranteeing their own security, it is okay as well, but, of course, it needs to be done keeping in touch with the Olympic Games organisers and our special services.” Putin’s comments came as the Obama administration asked the Pentagon to draw up plans for possible U.S. military assistance for Americans inside Sochi in the event of a terror attack. (NBC News, 01.20.14, Kremlin.ru, 01.19.14).
Members of the U.S. Congress have expressed serious concerns about the safety of Americans at next month's Winter Olympics in Sochi and said Moscow needs to cooperate more on security. (AP, 01.21.14).
Half of the United States thinks it's at least somewhat likely there will be a terrorist attack at the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia, next month, according to a new poll. The Quinnipiac poll shows 12 percent think it's "very likely," while 38 percent think it's "somewhat likely." (Washington Post, 01.22.14).

Cyber security:

Fugitive U.S. intelligence leaker Edward Snowden has rejected suggestions he was a Russian spy, saying he "clearly and unambiguously acted alone" in exposing U.S. surveillance programs. The U.S. House of Representatives and Senate intelligence committees will investigate suspicions that Snowden might have already been in touch with Russian security services while working as a defense contractor on U.S. soil, the committees' leaders said. (RFE/RL, 01.22.14, The Moscow Times, 01.22.14).
Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “The most famous American in Russia is Barack Obama. Everyone was invited, but as for Mr Snowden, he is a temporary refugee in Russia.” (Kremlin.ru, 01.19.14).
The U.S. attorney general, Eric Holder, has indicated that the US could allow the national security whistleblower Edward Snowden to return from Russia under negotiated terms, saying he was prepared to “engage in conversation” with him. (Guardian, 01.23.14).
Edward Snowden may ask for an extension of his refugee status in Russia and apply for citizenship at a later period, according to Snowden's lawyer Anatoly Kucherena. Alexey Pushkov, a legislator who is head of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Duma, said Russia will continue to extend asylum protections to Snowden and won't send him back home. (CNN, Interfax, 01.24.14).
"While we protect our country's borders as any other country does, the Internet initially violates the terms 'border' and 'sovereignty'. What is more, today's telecommunication services make it possible to interfere with our independent national interests and to violate the principles of the country's security", the head of Russia's State Duma Committee on security and counteraction to corruption, Irina Yarovaya, said about an anti-terrorist amendment recently submitted to the State Duma. (Itar-Tass, 01.21.14).
U.S. cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike says it has gathered evidence that the Russian government spied on hundreds of American, European and Asian companies, the first time Moscow has been linked to cyber attacks for alleged economic — rather than political — gains. According to the firm CrowdStrike, the victims of the previously unreported cyber espionage campaign include energy and technology firms, some of which have lost valuable intellectual property. (Reuters, 01.23.14).
Experts at the company Group-IB have officially disproved reports identifying Sergey Tarasov, purportedly 17 and a resident of St. Petersburg, as the author of the malicious software known as Kaptoxa, which was used in one of the largest successful attacks on U.S. Internet stores. (RBTH, 01.24.14).

Energy exports from CIS:

Russia will at least keep its oil production at record-high levels this year thanks to strong performance in new fields, but there is little chance of significant further gains in output, analysts and officials said. (Reuters, 01.21.14).
Russia plans to at least double its oil and gas flows to Asia over the next 20 years, a draft of its energy strategy showed on Friday, part of a pivot away from export routes to Europe. (Reuters, 01.24.14).

Bilateral economic ties:

Russia and the U.S. plan to conclude a number of agreements concerning trade, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich and Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev told journalists following their meeting with a U.S. trade representative on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. This concerns a set of agreements that at the end of the path will give us the equivalent of a free trade zone. Right now we are mainly talking about an agreement on protecting investments and a future agreement in the area of technical regulation, phytosanitary control," Ulyukayev said. (Interfax, 01.23.14).

Other bilateral issues:

President Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a "businesslike and constructive" phone conversation on Tuesday to discuss the upcoming peace conference on Syria. The leaders also discussed the recent temporary deal freezing Iran's nuclear weapons program, security at the upcoming Sochi Olympics, and steps to increase trade between the nations. The White House said President Obama offered "its full assistance" to help promote "a safe and secure" games. (Reuters, 01.21.14).
U.S. President Barack Obama said: "No one expects China to have an open debate about their surveillance programs, or Russia to take privacy concerns of citizens in other places into account." (Washington Post, 01.18.14).
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner called Russia’s President Vladimir Putin “a thug” and accused him of treating Russia’s neighbors in a “disrespectful way.” “I don’t believe that such a high-ranking lawmaker could have said such a thing,” Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said in a telephone interview. (Bloomberg, 01.24.14).
Assistant Secretary of State Tom Countryman said: “What John Kennedy proposed in 1963, what Ronald Reagan discussed with Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985, what Senators Lugar and Nunn did with the Soviet Union in 1991 laid the foundation for a far more secure and peaceful world than people would have predicted back in those days.” (U.S. State Department, 01.19.14).
U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul wrote in his blog that last year, the U.S. embassy and consulates in Russia issued over a quarter of a million non-immigrant visas to Russians. That’s 15 percent more than our previous record-breaking year, according to the envoy. (M-mcfaul.livejournal.com, 01.23.14).
A U.S. court has ruled that Muscovite Roman Kvinikadze, who pleaded guilty to trying to buy thermal-imaging rifle sights in the U.S. and exporting them to Russia without a license, must pay a $7,500 fine and return home. (The Moscow Times, 01.23.14).
The defense team of Russian citizen Viktor Bout, sentenced by a U.S. court to 25 years in prison, will not appeal this decision at the Supreme Court of the United States, his lawyer said. (Interfax, 01.17.14).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Russian President Vladimir Putin said it was too early to speak on whether he would run for his fourth term in 2018, but clinging to power by all means would be unwise. (RIA Novosti, 01.19.14).
Russian President Vladimir Putin's electoral rating rose in December, returning to 2000s levels, a new opinion poll by the independent Levada Center showed. Asked whom they would vote for if a presidential election took place next Sunday, 68 percent of respondents said they would vote for Putin, up 10 percent from figures in December 2012. (RIA Novosti, 01.20.14).
Russia's largest car manufacturer, OAO AvtoVAZ said on Thursday it plans to cut nearly 12% of its workforce in the coming year as part a group of "urgent measures to improve the company's financial condition," ahead of its soon-to-be completed merger with the Renault-Nissan Alliance. (Wall Street Journal, 01.23.14).
The Russian ruble continued to weaken Friday, to beyond 47 against the euro for the first time in five years, heading toward record lows. (Wall Street Journal, 01.24.14).
A group of World Economic Forum experts led by former Russian Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin released a report that suggests that regional development is the best economic growth strategy for Russia. (RBC Daily, 01.24.14).
Russian aluminium magnate Oleg Deripaska has proposed moving the nation's capital to Siberia, to stem the concentration of power and "corruption" in Moscow and help integrate the country into Asian and Pacific economies, a news report said. (The Moscow Times, 01.24.14).
The Russian State Duma has passed a bill increasing penalties for those found guilty of extremism from two to four years. (RFE/RL, 01.23.14).

Defense:

When asked about the country's defense priorities, Russia's President Vladimir Putin said they were primarily focused on preserving the nuclear triad. (Voice of Russia, 01.22.14).
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu laid the cornerstone of a new military command and control center in Moscow on Monday. The National Center of Defense Administration is designed to unite all branches of military command. (The Moscow Times, 01.21.14).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

In an interview with CNN, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said security at the upcoming Winter Olympics is a concern but that problems confronting Sochi are no greater than for other Olympic Games. (RFE/RL, 01.23.14).
Asked about rumors that Chechen rebel leader Doku Umarov, the suspected mastermind behind many deadly Russian terror attacks, is dead, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that until Russian authorities receive proof, "special services will continue to consider him to be alive." (RFE/RL, 01.23.14).
Russian security services may be looking for as many as four “black widows” dispatched to carry out terrorist attacks related to the Winter Olympics, including at least one woman believed to be in or near the Olympic city of Sochi. Wanted posters distributed in Sochi, where the games open Feb. 7, describe at least one suspected terrorist — Ruzana Ibragimova, the 22-year-old widow of an Islamic militant killed by Russian security forces. Juan Zarate, a former U.S. deputy national security adviser for combating terrorism, says a potential suicide bomber's presence in Sochi, Russia, may indicate a broader plot afoot against next month's Olympics (GSN, 01.22.14, NBC News, 01.20.14).
An Islamist militant group has claimed responsibility for two suicide bombings that killed at least 34 people last month in the Russian city of Volgograd. In a video posted online, "Vilayat Dagestan" (Dagestan Province) also threatened to attack the Winter Olympic Games in Sochi next month. The video showed two men which the U.S.-based SITE monitoring service said were believed to be the Volgograd bombers. (RFE/RL, 01.20.14).
Seven people suspected of carrying out a grenade and bomb attack in the troubled Russian region of Dagestan were killed by security forces in a shootout on Saturday. The seven were suspected of carrying out the attack outside a restaurant in the regional capital, Makhachkala, on Friday. (New York Times, 01.19.14).
The National Anti-Terrorism Committee on Tuesday announced that security forces had killed Eldar Magatov, leader of an insurgent group in Dagestan during one of three simultaneous operations carried out in the turbulent republic. (The Moscow Times, 01.22.14).
Only 29 percent of Russians are convinced that the Russian authorities can protect them from terrorist threats, while 63 percent disagree. Eight percent had no answer, said a poll by the Levada Center released Tuesday. (RIA Novosti, 01.23.14).
The Russian Supreme Court has ordered the release of Platon Lebedev, the former business partner of former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky. (RFE/RL, 01.23.14).
Republic of Dagestan Deputy Prime Minister Magomedgusen Nasrutdinov was detained on arrival in Moscow from Makhachkala late on January 19 and remanded for two days in connection with the illegal privatization of gas distribution networks in the early 2000s. (RFE/RL, 01.22.14).

Foreign affairs and trade:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said the rival Syrian delegations have agreed to sit down for direct talks at the Geneva-2 conference on Friday. On Tuesday Russia’s top diplomat chided the United Nations for rescinding an invitation to Iran to participate in talks. (RTE, 01.22.14, CNN, 01.21.14).
On Thursday night Ahmad Jarba, the leader of the Syrian opposition, claimed that Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, has assured him that the Kremlin would not keep propping up Bashar Al- Assad. (The Independent, 01.24.14).
The Obama administration learned last November about a trove of harrowing photographs that were said to document widespread torture and executions in Syrian prisons. Russia's Prime Minister, Dmitri A. Medvedev, said in an interview with CNN that no conclusions could be drawn about the photos. (New York Times, 01.23.14).
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov outlined on Tuesday the priorities of Russia's G8 presidency, listing among them the fight against extremism and drug threats, as well as health protection and management of risks connected with natural calamities. (Itar-Tass, 01.21.14).
Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri called on jihadists in Syria to line up "in one rowlike, solid structure in confronting your sectarian, secularist enemy," which he identified as the Syrian government supported by "Iran, Russia and China." (Washington Post, 01.24.14).
Russia released a 153-page "Report on the human rights situation in the European Union", in which is accuses EU of trying to enforce "an alien view" of homosexuality on other countries. (Reuters, 01.23.14).

Russia's neighbors:

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, in what appeared to be an offer of major concessions to the opposition amid mass protests against his rule, pledged on Friday to reshuffle the government next week and to amend sweeping anti-protest laws. On Thursday Yanukovych proposed on Thursday to free detained protesters in return for a temporary cease-fire, but antigovernment demonstrators refused to accept the tentative deal. (Wall Street Journal, 01.24.14, Reuters, 01.24.14).
Ukrainian protesters erected more street barricades and occupied a government ministry building in Kiev on Friday. Elsewhere, demonstrators seized administration buildings in the cities of Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnitsky and Rivne, and made an effort to take the local government building in Zhytomyr and Cherkasy. Two protesters have been killed by gunfire in Kiev, and an activist who was wounded there was abducted from a hospital, beaten and left to die outside the city this week. (Washington Post, Reuters, 01.24.14).
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has harshly criticized Ukraine's opposition and countries in Europe for social tensions in Ukraine. Speaking at a news conference on January 21, Lavrov called the demonstrators who occupied the Kyiv mayor's building and a government building in the capital "militants" and added their behavior was beyond what would be considered acceptable in European countries. (RFE/RL, 01.23.14).
U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden on Thursday called Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to urge an immediate de-escalation in the standoff between protesters and security forces in downtown Kyiv. (Interfax, 01.23.14).
During a telephone conversation on the morning of January 23, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych gave assurances to European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso that he does not plan to impose a state of emergency. During the call, Barroso once again expressed his deep concern about the escalation of violence and warned of possible consequences for the bloc's relations with Ukraine if the crisis is not resolved. (RFE/RL, 01.23.14).
The Ukrainian government is letting its national currency, the hryvnya, lose value in hopes a weaker currency will help kick-start the economy. (RFE/RL, 01.24.14).
Russia's foreign minister has reiterated Moscow's recognition of the independence of Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Sergei Lavrov's statement came a day after the Georgian Foreign Ministry protested against a decision by Russia and Abkhazia to move the Russian border 11 kilometers into Abkhazia in order to maintain security during the Winter Olympics in Sochi next month. (RFE/RL, 01.21.14).
Chinese Embassy officials are in Kyrgyzstan to help identify the 11 gunmen killed by Kyrgyz border guards on January 23. Chief of Kyrgyz Border Guarding Service, Raiymberdy Duishonbiev told journalists the following day that the men may be Islamic insurgents from China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. (RFE/RL, 01.24.14).
The armed forces of the self-proclaimed Nagorny Karabakh have ceased an attempt of border violations, the Nagorny Karabakh Defense Ministry press office told Interfax. Junior Sergeant Armen Ovannisian of the Karabakh side has died in the exchange of fire, the ministry said. (Interfax, 01.20.14).
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamadyarov and his Armenian counterpart, Eduard Nalbandian, are preparing to meet in Paris to continue talks on the so-called frozen conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. (RFE/RL, 01.24.14).

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