Russia in Review

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for December 24, 2013 – January 10, 2014

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

A new report released by the Nuclear Threat Initiative said seven countries have removed all or most of their stocks of weapons-usable nuclear materials from their territories in the past two years. The progress means the number of nations with appreciable bomb-making nuclear material has decreased from 32 to 25. Australia ranks first among the remaining 25 countries in terms of overall nuclear security conditions, according to NTI’s Nuclear Materials Security Index. Worst on the list was North Korea. The United States and United Kingdom are tied for 11th place while Russia was ranked at No 18. (NBC News, NTI, 01.08.14).
In 2014 the modernization of the automatic security systems at five facilities of the Russian strategic rocket forces will involve for the first time the Russian Defense Ministry's 12th main department." The modernization of the automatic security systems includes changing technical means of detection, alert and protection," representative of the Russian Defense Ministry's press service Col. Igor Yegorov said. (Interfax, 01.09.14).
Authorities in the nation of Georgia apprehended two men accused of attempting to sell radium-226 that could be used in a so-called "dirty bomb." It is not known how the two accused men came into custody of the radioactive material, how much of it they possessed or whether they had any buyers in mind. (GSN, 01.03.14).
Most members of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission indicated on Monday that they considered it safe to continue storing most spent nuclear fuel in pools, even though concerns remain about potential accidents and terrorist attacks. (New York Times, 01.06.14).
Two officers at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana are being investigated for allegations of drug possession. Both of those being investigated are ICBM launch officers with responsibility for operating intercontinental ballistic missiles. (AP, 01.09.14).

Iran nuclear issues:

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Rohani, spoke via phone on January 9 about Tehran's nuclear negotiations with six world powers and the upcoming Syrian peace talks. (RFE/RL, 01.09.14).
Iran and Russia are negotiating an oil-for-goods swap worth $1.5 billion a month that would let Iran lift oil exports substantially, in defiance of Western sanctions that helped force Tehran to agree a preliminary deal to end its nuclear programme. (Reuters, 01.10.14).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to and from Afghanistan:

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Titov has said that the scenario of NATO's Steadfast Jazz 2013 military exercise which took place on 2-9 November has "surprised" Moscow. (RIA Novosti, 12.31.13).

Missile defense:

Cooperation in missile defence is still possible with Russia, U.S. Ambassador Michael McFaul said. Asked why the White House did not revise missile defence deployment plans in Europe as a perceived Iranian threat waned, McFaul said the U.S. was now estimating whether a threat existed. As there were no fixed agreements with Iran, it was early to say the threat was no more. (Itar-Tass, 12.25.14).
The U.S. Defense Department has completed -- but is not yet releasing -- a study on five basing options for a potential missile-interceptor site on the East Coast. (GSN, 01.09.14).

Nuclear arms control:

Now is the least opportune moment in the past 15 years for Russia to discuss further reductions of strategic offensive weapons, Mikhail Ulyanov, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's security and disarmament department, said. (RIA Novosti, 12.25.14).
The United States next year is slated to begin reducing launch tubes on each of its Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines. The elimination of four operational launch tubes on each of the 14 submarines will be the first substantial reduction in U.S. strategic weapon delivery capability since the 2011 New START accord went into effect. (GSN, 01.06.14).
U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said on Wednesday the United States had always supported a strong nuclear deterrent and would continue to do so, even as it braces for a nuclear forces overhaul that analysts say could cost $1 trillion over 30 years. (Reuters, 01.08.14).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

About two dozen FBI agents and other personnel are being sent to Moscow, while more than a dozen others will be assigned to Sochi to help tighten security at the Winter Olympics, FBI Director James Comey said. He said that cooperation between U.S. and Russian intelligence agencies had improved, a process that began under his predecessor, Robert Mueller. (Wall Street Journal, 01.10.14, Washington Post, 01.09.14).
Instead of declaring "law enforcement" as its "primary function," as it has for years, the FBI fact sheet now lists "national security" as its chief mission. (Cable, 01.05.14).
The United States condemned the back-to-back terrorist attacks in Volgograd that killed dozens and offered to assist Moscow with security preparations for the upcoming 2014 Winter Olympic Games in Sochi. (RIA Novosti, 12.30.13).

Cyber security:

No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

Russia retained the title of the world's top oil producer with 2013 output reaching a post-Soviet high as rising exports to China and strong prices allow the Kremlin to maintain record spending from an overstretched budget. (Reuters, 01.03.14).
Russia's subsurface resource base allows the country to maintain oil production of 500 million tonnes a year for the next ten, given the current conditions, Natural Resources Minister Sergei Donskoi said. (Interfax, 12.25.13).
Exxon Mobil Corp. and OAO Rosneft are set to start their first Arctic well this year, targeting a deposit that may hold more oil than Norway's North Sea. (Bloomberg, 01.02.14).

Bilateral economic ties:

No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

The White House called for closer cooperation with Russia on issues such as arms control, counterterrorism and trade under the auspices of a bilateral presidential commission launched four years ago. The statement came as Washington and Moscow issued a joint report Friday on the US-Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission. In the report officials focused on areas they described as fertile for collaboration, including military-technical cooperation and counterterrorism in the wake of the Boston Marathon bombing in April. (RIA Novosti, 12.27.13).
The year of 2013 demonstrated that Moscow and Washington are able to work together to solve international problems, President Vladimir Putin said in a New Year address to his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama. (Xinhua. 01.01.14).
The U.S. authorities on Wednesday announced a decision to extend their participation in the International Space Station programme at least until 2024. President of the Energia Rocket and Space Corporation (RKK) Vitaly Lopota said Russia could support this decision of the United States. (Itar-Tass, 01.10.14).
Tucked into the mammoth defense budget bill that President Obama signed into law on Thursday is a measure that virtually bars Russia from building about a half-dozen Global Navigation Satellite System monitor stations on American soil that critics fear Moscow could use to spy on the United States or worse. (New York Times, 12.29.14).
An agreement between Russia and the US on cooperation over the issue of adopted children was officially terminated on January 1. (Voice of Russia, 01.01.14).
As 2013 ended a global poll found that the country seen as representing the greatest threat to peace today is the United States. The survey of opinions across 65 countries by pollster Win/Gallup International recorded some of the strongest anti-American sentiment, predictably, in countries widely regarded as rivals, led by Russia (where 54 percent of respondents said the U.S. was the greatest threat to peace) and China (49 percent). American respondents named Iran as the greatest threat to peace (20 percent), followed by Afghanistan (14 percent). North Korea (13 percent) – and the U.S. itself (13 percent). (CNN, 12.31.13).
Russian TV celebrity and socialite Ksenia Sobchak has said she was strip-searched at Miami Airport after a security check wrongly detected explosives on her fingers, a claim the US authorities have denied. (RIA Novosti, 01.10.14).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Growing production of shale oil and gas poses a significant risk to Russia's economic security, secretary of Russia's Security Council Nikolai Patrushev said. “Unless principal Russia oil and has producers change their inert policies, these developments may lead to losses of tens of billions of dollars. This is a direct threat to the economic security of the country," he said. (Interfax, 12.26.13).
Russia’s gross domestic product slowed sharply in 2013, but economists are optimistic that the Russian economy will double its speed in 2014, according to Danske Bank research. (International Business Times, 01.08.14).
More than $1 trillion has been siphoned off from the Russian economy to offshore territories in the past 20 years, Russian Federation Council Chair Valentina Matviyenko said on Wednesday. (Interfax, 12.25.13).
Russian leader Vladimir Putin has been named International Person of the Year by Britain's The Times newspaper for succeeding in his ambition of bringing Moscow back to the international top table. (RIA Novosti, 12.30.13).
26 percent of Russians interviewed by the Levada Center sociological service have once again described Russian President Vladimir Putin as the person of the year in a December 2013 poll. Putin has been found the person of the year in all polls conducted by the Levada Center since 1999. (Interfax, 12.28.13).
A survey conducted by pollster Win/Gallup International found that 13% of Russians would like to live in Switzerland, 9% in Australia, 8% in Germany, 5% in Canada and another 5% in the United States. (Belfer Center, 12.31.13).
Russia had 6.5% inflation in 2013, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said, quoting preliminary figures. (Interfax, 12.31.13).
About a million foreigners could be working illegally in the Russian capital, a top Moscow migration official suggested Thursday. (RIA Novosti, 01.09.14).
Legendary gun designer Mikhail Kalashnikov was buried Friday at a new military cemetery outside Moscow. (The Moscow Times, 01.06.14).
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday confirmed the list of 1,007 institutions that will be run by the Federal Agency of Scientific Organizations, which was created last year by a law on academic reforms. (The Moscow Times, 01.08.14).
Russia is among the world's heaviest smoking countries, outranked only by China, India and Indonesia, according to the Journal of the American Medical Association. (RIA Novosti, 01.08.14).
Alisher Usmanov retained his title as Russia's richest businessman in 2013 with a net worth of $20.2 billion, according to a Bloomberg ranking of the world's 200 wealthiest persons. (Moscow Times, 01.07.14).

Defense:

Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has defended Russia's recent efforts to step up its military presence in the Arctic. Shoygu stressed the importance to Russia of the "Northern Maritime Route and huge natural reserves" of the Arctic, noting "claims by many, many states, not only Arctic ones by the way, to the riches available there". (Rossiya 24 TV, 12.26.14).
Combat aircraft from Russia's Northern Fleet will extend the ranges of their patrol flights over the Arctic in 2014 using a network of revamped Soviet-era airfields,. (RIA Novosti, 01.03.14).
Two regiments equipped with RS-24 Yars missile systems have been placed on trial combat duty in the Novosibirsk and Nizhniy Tagil missile. (BBC, 01.01.14).
Two Voronezh early warning radar stations will be put on combat duty in the Kaliningrad and Irkutsk regions of Russia in 2014. (Interfax, 01.09.14).
The construction of two nuclear-powered missile submarines of Project 955-A "Borei-A" will start this year. (Interfax, 01.09.14).
Russia launched 32 out of 82 space rockets in 2013. (Interfax, 01.09.14).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

President Vladimir V. Putin ordered security to be tightened across Russia after a suicide bombing on a trolley bus in Volgograd killed at least 15 people and wounded dozens on Monday, the second bombing in the city in two days. Together, the attacks killed at least 32 people and sowed panic across the country. The bombings appeared to be part of a deadly campaign of terrorism ahead of the Winter Olympic Games, which are scheduled to begin in six weeks in Sochi, a resort on the Black Sea that is 400 miles from Volgograd. (New York Times, 12.31.13).
The Volgograd suicide attacks prove that terrorism is a global threat, but Russia has everything to ensure top-level security during the Winter Olympics it's hosting next month, the head of the Sochi 2014 Organizing Committee, Dmitry Chernyshenko said. (Russia Today, 01.07.14).
The discovery of several improvised explosive devices and the bodies of six men shot dead put security forces on higher alert in the North Caucasus region of Russia on Thursday and added new concerns about violence ahead of the Olympic Games planned for the nearby resort city of Sochi next month. (CNN, 01.10.14).
Russia has launched what is being described as one of the largest security operations in Olympic history with one month to go before the start of the winter games in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. Emergency Situations Minister Vladimir Puchkov said that “every facility will be put under protection and a space-based monitoring system will be launched." (RFE/RL, 01.07.14).
Special troops have shot and killed a militant in Dagestan who may have been behind two suicide bombings in the Moscow metro in 2010 that killed 40 people. (The Moscow Times, 01.06.14).
The first probe against a Russian citizen fighting on the side of the Islamic insurgency in Syria has been launched in the Russian region of Chechnya. (RFE/RL, 01.09.14).
President Vladimir Putin signed a law makes spreading separatist views a criminal offense punishable by up to five years in jail. (The Moscow Times, 01.06.14).
A proposed amendment to the Criminal Code would allow law enforcement officials to be jailed for up to 15 years for negligence in failing to prevent a terrorist attack. (The Moscow Times, 01.09.14).
Russian aviation authorities announced Wednesday that as of now, no liquids, no matter how small the amount, can be carried onboard an airplane anywhere in the country. (Washington Post, 01.09.14).
A total of 1,225 people fell victim to armed violence in the North Caucasus in 2012 alone (700 were killed and 525 injured). Despite a considerable decline in the number of incidents in 2013, the region is still a dangerous place. Some 124 people were killed and 75 injured in the first quarter of 2013; 118 were killed and 178 were injured in the second quarter of the year; and 133 were killed and 90 were injured in the third quarter of the year. (Russia in Global Affairs, 12.27.13).
The European Court for Human Rights last year made 120 rulings against human rights violations by Russian authorities, the Justice Ministry's press service said Tuesday. (The Moscow Times, 01.08.14).
Russian investigators have dropped the charges against all but one of the 30 crew members of a Greenpeace ship, who were accused of hooliganism in connection with a protest at a Russian oil rig in the Arctic. (New York Times, 12.26.13).
Russia's Supreme Court said it will review two convictions against former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, including a ruling the Kremlin critic said was preventing him from returning to Russia despite a presidential pardon. (Reuters, 12.26.13).

Foreign affairs and trade:

On January 1, Russia began its Group of Eight presidency for 2014 and will host the 40th G8 Summit in the Olympic city of Sochi in June. This year's G8 agenda will focus on fighting terrorism and drug trafficking, managing conflicts and disasters. (Russia Today, 01.14.14).
Russia has blocked an effort at the United Nations to condemn air strikes carried out by the Syrian government on cities inside the war-torn Middle Eastern country. (The Moscow Times, 01.09.14).
Russia and the United States share the opinion that it is necessary to hold the international conference on Syria in the time scheduled, on January 22, and consider military resolution in the Syrian conflict to be not viable, the Russian Foreign Ministry said following the Russian-U.S. consultations on Syria. (Interfax, 01.10.14).
As fighting in Syria continue to intensify, Moscow has provided armored trucks that will deliver chemical weapons to the port in Latakia, as part of an international cooperation to dismantle and evacuate the embattled Syrian government's chemical weapons stock. (RBTH, 01.10.14).
The state-controlled Russian group Soyuzneftegaz and the Syrian regime signed a deal that allows for the exploration and drilling, development and production of oil and gas in a 2,190 sq km area off Syria’s coast, the first-such deal for the country.(American Interest, 12.29.13).
Russia has accused Senegal of engaging in "piracy" after armed naval officers from the west African nation seized 62 of its nationals on a trawler for alleged illegal fishing. (Aljazeera.com, 01.10.14).
Rosatom currently has contracts to build 20 nuclear power blocks abroad and is examining with its foreign partners construction of another 40 nuclear power blocks, Rosatom chief Sergei Kirienko said at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. Kirienko also said that Russia will nearly triple its production of natural uranium in the next two years. (RIA Novosti, Interfax, 01.09.13).
Exports of Russian software products and software development tools reached 5.2 billion dollars in 2013. (RBTH, 01.08.14).
Russia put more protectionist policies in place than any other country in 2013, closely followed by neighbouring Belarus, according to data from Global Trade Alert (GTA). With 78 such trade restrictions, Russia also accounted for almost a third of the protectionism imposed by G20 nations. (Reuters, 12.30.13).

Russia's neighbors:

Ukraine and Russia have signed a formal amendment to a natural-gas contract that cuts the price of Russian gas by one-third for the first quarter of 2014. Ukraine has ceased buying gas from Europe and will instead purchase the fuel solely from Russia, as it offers the lowest prices, Ukraine's energy minister said Thursday. (RIA Novosti, RFE/RL, 01.09.14).
The US Senate has called for possible sanctions against individuals responsible for state violence against Ukrainian demonstrators protesting Kiev's decision to abandon long-awaited trade and political deals with the European Union. (RIA Novosti, 01.08.14).
Ukraine will resume negotiations with the European Union on signing an association agreement after the New Year's holidays, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Leonid Kozhara said. (Interfax, 12.25.13).
Standard & Poor's, the international ratings agency has upgraded its outlook for Ukraine from 'negative' to 'stable'. (Itar-Tass, 12.26.13).
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said on Wednesday that his country would complete all procedures to join the Russian-led Customs Union this year. (RIA Novosti, 01.06.14).
The Prosecutor-General's Office in Moldova has launched an investigation into plans of the country's autonomous region of Gagauzia, home to a Turkic people, to hold referendum next month. (RFE/RL, 10.09.14).
The recently passed U.S. defense budget bill eliminated funding for Pentagon's Trans Regional Web Initiative, a program that published a variety of regional "news" websites, including Central Asia Online. (Eurasianet.org, 01.08.14)

If you wish to either unsubscribe from or subscribe to Russia in Review, please e-mail Simon Saradzhyan at simon_saradzhyan@hks.harvard.edu.