Russia in Review

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of August 31-September 7, 2012

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

A worrisome degree of incompetence at a U.S. key nuclear weapons facility in Tennessee allowed a trio of peace demonstrators in late July to bypass supposedly high-tech security measures and enter a secured area where fissile material is stored, the U.S. Energy Department's inspector general concluded. (GSN, 09/04.12).
Moscow opposes the delay of a conference on a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East until 2013, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the Moscow Non-Proliferation Conference on Friday. (Itar-Tass, 09.07.12).

Iran nuclear issues:

Russia has starkly warned Israel and the United States against attacking Iran, saying Moscow sees no evidence that Tehran's nuclear program is aimed at developing weapons. "We warn those who are no strangers to military solutions ... that this would be harmful, literally disastrous for regional stability," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. (Reuters, 09.06.12).
No pauses should be allowed to slow the pace of talks between Iran and the P5+1, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told a nonproliferation conference in Moscow. "Iran has demonstrated high readiness for cooperation with the IAEA," Ryabkov said, adding it could take more steps. (Xinhua, 09.07.12).
Iran will get full control of its Bushehr nuke plant at the end of 2012 from the Russian contractor, Igor Mezenin, local operation chief of the nuclear plant's Russian contractor said. (FNA, 09.04.12).
St. Petersburg-based Russian Maritime Register of Shipping, among the top 13 global ship classification societies, has decided to suspend its activities in Iran after being urged to pull out by U.S. pressure group United Against Nuclear Iran. (Reuters, 09.07.12).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to and from Afghanistan:

In an interview with Russia Today Russian President Vladimir Putin said: "The United States and its allies once entered Afghanistan. Now they are thinking of how to escape. …None of the nations who are currently committing their troops to Afghanistan want to make matters worse for themselves by combatting drugs in Afghanistan, because drugs are Afghanistan’s way of making a living.” (Russia Today/Kremlin.ru, 09.06.12).

Missile defense:

In an interview with Russia Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin said of the U.S. missile defense plans: “the ambition is to upset the strategic balance.” “Is it possible to find a solution to the problem, if current president Obama is re-elected for a second term? Theoretically, yes. But can he do it, will they let him do it? I mean that there is also the military lobby, and the Department of State, which is quite conservative,” he said. (Kremlin.ru, 09.06.12).
Russia has expressed its concern over American plans to deploy a new missile defense shield in Southeast Asia. Moscow’s concerns about the situation arise from the technology involved, as well as the “geography and the US capability to deploy these assets in different locations,” Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said. The United States needs to choose between unilateral missile defense and missile defense cooperation with Russia, he said. (RIA Novosti, Interfax, 09.07.12).
"Work on the S-500 SAM system … will be completed before 2020," Aerospace Defense Troops Commander Col. Gen. Oleg Ostapenko said. (Interfax, 09.05.12).

Nuclear arms control:

Russia has no intention of cutting weapons from its nuclear force in the absence of comparable steps by other powers, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Thursday. Ryabkov referred to the challenge of assessing the capabilities of nations outside the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. (GSN/Interfax, 09.07.12).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

No significant developments.

Cyber security:

No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

Russia wants to avoid a "gas war" with the European Union over the EU's probe of OAO Gazprom, and it would welcome a negotiated settlement between the energy giant and European authorities, said Vladimir Chizhov, Russia's ambassador to the EU. (Wall Street Journal, 09.07.12).
Russia extracted oil at a record pace of 10.38 million barrels per day in August, a level unseen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. (Reuters, 09.03.12).

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney would support legislation to upgrade U.S. trade relations with Russia only if Congress also passes a measure to go after Russian human rights violators, his campaign said on Thursday. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns said on Thursday the Obama administration believed the PNTR bill should be passed on its own merits. Russia today is the 7th largest economy in the world, but only America’s 20th largest trading partner. In April alone, U.S. goods exports to Russia reached $1 billion, a new record level, Burns said. (Reuters, State Department, 09.06.12).
The Russian government remains hopeful that the U.S. Congress will approve a bill to upgrade bilateral trade relations despite a potentially tough political climate heading into U.S. elections in November, Alexei Drobinin, senior counselor at the Russian Embassy in Washington, said. (Reuters, 09.03.12).
The head of ExxonMobil held up a partnership with Russia's Rosneft as a model for the rest of the world. (Reuters, 09.06.12).

Other bilateral issues:

In an interview with Russia Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised U.S. President Barack Obama personally as a “very honest man and that he sincerely wants to make many good changes.” (Kremlin.ru, 09.06.12).
In an interview with Russia Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “We'll work with whichever president gets elected by the American people.” “As for Mr Romney’s position, we understand that this is to a certain extent motivated by the election race and election rhetoric.” (Kremlin.ru, 09.06.12).
Referring to GOP candidate Mitt Romney’s comment about Russia President Barack Obama told the Democratic National Convention: “After all, you don’t call Russia our number one enemy, not Al Qaeda, Russia, unless you’re still stuck in a Cold War mind warp.” (Washington Post, 09.06.12).
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton will have to have a "brief conversation" with Russian President Vladimir Putin on sidelines of the ASEA summit in Vladivostok on Saturday. (DPA, Interfax, 09.07.12).
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are expected to discuss missile defense, and other issues concerning arms control on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Vladivostok, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. (Interfax, 09.06.12).
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has held talks in Moscow with Rose Gottemoeller, acting U.S. under secretary of state. Ryabkov said that the meeting covered "arms control, non-profileration, the current agenda, a great number of current issues, and, of course, missile defence." Gottemoeller is in Moscow to attend the Moscow Non-proliferation Conference. (Interfax, 09.07.12).
Americans represent the third-largest group of visitors to Russia from outside the former Soviet Union. According to U.S. Embassy data, 170,000 trips from U.S. citizens were registered in 2011. The number of Russians traveling to the United States is significantly higher, with 222,000 visits recorded in 2011, a 27 percent increase over 2010, the U.S. Embassy said. The Russian Foreign Ministry hopes that relaxation of the Russia-U.S. visa regime will be a step toward visa-free travel. (Interfax, 09.06.12, Moscow Times, 09.07.12).
The Democratic Party Platform released this week said: “The Cold War mentality represented by Mitt Romney's identification of Russia as "our number one geopolitical foe" ignores the very real common interest we share with Russia in reducing nuclear stockpiles, stopping additional proliferation by countries such as Iran and North Korea, and preventing nuclear materials from falling into the hands of terrorists.” “Moving forward, the President will work with Russia to achieve additional reductions in stockpiles and nuclear delivery vehicles, including tactical and non-deployed nuclear weapons,” according to the platform. “We believe that the United States and Russia can cooperate on missile defense, but we have also made clear that we will move forward with our system,” it said. (Democrats.org, 09.03.12).
A memo authored by policy director of the Romney campaign Lanhee Chen excoriates Obama’s “reset” policy with Russia, reeling off the list of concessions. Among President Obama’s concessions to Russia were abandoning an European missile defense system; New START; “flexibility” after the election; kid gloves for Russia’s human rights and democracy problems, according to the memo. In return for these concessions, Russia has obstructed efforts to stop violence in Syria, supplied arms to the Syrian army, watered down a 2010 set of U.N. sanctions on Iran, urged Kyrgyzstan to close down a U.S. military base, cozies up to Hugo Chávez, continued abuses of political and human rights, and returned to Cold War Rhetoric. (Mittromney.com, Washington Post, 09.06.12).
Senator John Kerry told the Democratic National Convention: “Mitt Romney talks like he’s only seen Russia by watching Rocky IV.” (Washington Post, 09.07.12).
Senator John Kerry wrote: “Where there is common ground -- like New START and Iran sanctions -- we can work together. Where we can't agree, as is the case with Syria, we pursue our own, independent course. Labeling, as the Romney team has done with China and Russia, is fine for talk-show hosts and for partisan political rallies, but it is a waste of time when pursuing real policy issues with real consequences.” (Foreign Policy. 09.05.12).
The U.S. State Department has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin's participation in a project to save white cranes, which are on the verge of extinction. (RIA Novosti, 09.07.12).

II. Russia news.

Domestic Politics, Economy and Energy:

President Vladimir Putin has replaced five of the nine members of the supervisory council of the Russian state nuclear power corporation Rosatom, and appointed Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin as a new chairman. (RFE/RL, 09.04.12).
President Vladimir Putin has introduced legislation to the State Duma that would raise the maximum age at which officials could still be employed by the state from 65 to 70. (Moscow Times, 09.04.12).
President Vladimir Putin made a rousing call for unity among Russia's diverse ethnic and religious groups on Sunday as he led commemorations of a battle 200 years ago that led to the defeat of Napoleon Bonaparte. (Reuters, 09.02.12).
The Russian ruble is excessively strong, which may endanger economic growth, but as long as oil prices remain above $100 a barrel it is unlikely that the ruble will significantly decline in value, the country's economic minister, Andrei Belousov said. (Wall Street Journal, 09.05.12).
Russia lost one position and was ranked 67th out of 144 countries in the World Economic Forum's 2012-2013 Global Competitiveness Report published on Wednesday. (RIA Novosti, 09.05.12).

Defense:

Commander of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN) Sergei Karakayev said this past Monday that Russia will build a new ICBM by 2018 is to replace the R-36M2 Voyevoda. The new ICBM will have a 5-ton warhead, which is four times that of its predecessors, according to Viktor Yesin, advisor to the RVSN commander. (RIA Novosti, 09.07.12).

Security and law-enforcement:

The Interior Ministry says a small band of insurgents in Ingushetia has killed five servicemen in an ambush. (AP, 09.05.12).
The Georgian Foreign Ministry said that 7 of 11 militants killed in late August at the border with Russia had been identified. They are two Georgian and five Russian citizens, including the bodyguard of Chechen separatist leader Akhmed Zakayev - Dukvakha Dushuyev. (Pravda.ru, 04.09.12).
Russia's Investigative Committee has finished a preliminary investigation into ex-policeman Dmitry Pavlyuchenkov's suspected complicity in the 2006 assassination of Russian investigative reporter Anna Politkovskaya. (Interfax, 09.06.12).

Foreign affairs:

The world economy's center of gravity is shifting away from Europe and the United States towards Asia Pacific countries such as China and Russia, President Vladimir Putin told the APEC summit in Vladivostok on Friday. (DPA, 09.07.12).
President Vladimir Putin promised Asia and Pacific leaders attending the APEC summit in Vladivostok on Friday that they could count on Russia to be a reliable energy supplier and provide a bridge to Europe that can help revitalize regional trade. He played up Russia’s common economic space with neighbors Kazakhstan and Belarus as opening “a direct route to Europe for business in the Pacific region.” (AP, 09/07.12).
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is gearing up to address the issue of the disputed islands in a meeting with Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the APEC summit. Also Russia and Japan are poised to seal an agreement this weekend that could lead to a liquefied-natural-gas shipping terminal in Vladivostok. (Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, 09.07.12).
In an interview with Russia Today Russian President Vladimir Putin said of Syria: “We realize that this country needs a change, but this doesn’t mean that change should come with bloodshed.” “We should stop trying to impose unacceptable solutions on either side.” (Russia Today, 09.03.12).
The Russian president's special representative on the Middle East, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, met in Moscow on Tuesday with a delegation from the Coalition of Forces for Peaceful Change, a Syrian opposition group. (Russia Today, 09.04.12).
Russia sternly warned Britain on Monday that it will respond tit-for-tat if London imposes any travel restrictions that would target Russian officials allegedly involved in the prison death of a Russian lawyer. (AP, 09.03.12).
All procedures related to Russia's accession to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) must have been carried through by 2014, said Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov. (Interfax, 09.07.12).

Russia's neighbors:

Hungary repatriated Azeri officer Ramil Safarov, who had been sentenced to life imprisonment for the 2004 axe murder of Armenian Lt. Gurgen Makarian. Safarov received a presidential pardon hours after returning. The Armenian president broke diplomatic relations with Hungary and said Armenia was willing to resume fighting against Azerbaijan. U.S. President Barack Obama is "deeply concerned" over Azerbaijan's pardon of a soldier who axed an Armenian to death. Russia’s Foreign Ministry condemned both Hungary’s release of Ramil Safarov and Azerbaijan’s pardon of him. On a visit to Baku, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has said he is "deeply concerned" over the pardoning and the co-chairs of the Minsk Group “expressed their deep concern. (RFE/RL, 09.07.12, AP, 09.03.12).
Georgia's upcoming parliamentary elections followed by a presidential election in 2013 will be a test for Georgian democracy, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said in Tbilisi on Thursday. In fall Georgia will become a major non-NATO contributor to the NATO-led multinational forces in Afghanistan, he said. (Interfax, 09.06.12).
The status of chief of the Collective Security Treaty Organization's Joint Staff will be enhanced and officers to be appointed to this post will hold the office for three years and they will not have the right to combine this work with other duties. Some 2,000 troops will take part in a joint exercise CSTO Rapid Reaction Force in Armenia on September 15-19. (Interfax, 09.05.12).
Turkmenistan has held its first naval drills on the Caspian amid a dispute with Azerbaijan over a section of the oil-rich sea. (AP, 09.05.12).
President Almazbek Atambaev has signed decrees formally appointing Kyrgyzstan's new cabinet and Prime Minister Jantoro Satybaldiev. (RFE/RL, 09.07.12).
The television station owned by Georgian tycoon-turned-opposition leader Bidzina Ivanishvili has brought in former CNN news anchor Larry King as an adviser ahead of crucial elections next month. (RFE/RL, 09.05.12).