Press Release
Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of August 17-24, 2012
Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of August 17-24, 2012
I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.
Nuclear security agenda:
· The Obama administration has drafted a proposal that would extend an umbrella agreement, which allows the United States to conduct Cooperative Threat Reduction operations in Russia, but it is uncertain whether Moscow will approve the draft deal, which is virtually identical to the current pact, according to Senator Richard Lugar. Lugar said his meetings with Russian officials left him with the “impression that they had not had great debate or discussion within their ministries” on the issue. However, government staffers “were not certain that simply changing the date was going to be adequate,” he added. Lugar acknowledged that an obstacle to winning Moscow’s approval could be that the draft deal does nothing to address the liability issues officials there have raised in the past. (GSN, 08.23.12).
Iran nuclear issues:
· The U.N. nuclear agency is forming a special Iran team, drawing together sleuths in weapons technology, intelligence analysis, radiation and other fields of expertise as it seeks to add muscle to a probe of suspicions that Tehran worked secretly on atomic arms, diplomats said. But two of the diplomats spoke of opposition by board member Russia. They said senior agency officials had met recently with ranking Russian representatives in efforts to dispel Moscow's fears that the reorganization would place too much weight on intelligence gathering - an agency function viewed with suspicion by the Russians. (AP, 08.23.12).
NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to and from Afghanistan:
· Russia has permitted the international coalition in Afghanistan to transport armored vehicles through the Ulyanovsk transit hub, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said. Russia will have a full right to inspect any cargo shipped through the Ulyanovsk logistics center, he said. (Interfax, 08.23.12).
Missile defense:
· “Any unilateral and unlimited buildup of the missile capability by one state or a group of states would lead to the preservation of Cold War hangovers, damaging strategic stability in violation of all the OSCE members' obligations not to strengthen their security at the expense of others,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. (RIA Novosti, 08.22.12).
· The U.S. is planning a major expansion of missile defenses in Asia, a move American officials say is designed to contain threats from North Korea, but one that could also be used to counter China's military. (WSJ, 08.23.12).
Nuclear arms control:
· No significant developments.
Counter-terrorism cooperation:
· No significant developments.
Cyber security:
· No significant developments.
Energy exports from CIS:
· No significant developments.
Access to major markets for exports and imports:
· The largest economy outside the WTO until now, Russia became the international trade group’s 156th member on August 22. Russia’s new stature could result in an additional $162 billion in annual economic output, the World Bank estimated this spring. "In order for American manufacturers, workers, service providers, farmers and ranchers to take full advantage of Russia's WTO membership, Congress must act to terminate Jackson-Vanik and authorize permanent normal trade relations for Russia,” U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk said. U.S. goods exports jumped almost 40 percent from 2010 to $8.3 billion last year. (Los Angeles Times, AFP, 08.22.12).
· U.S. oil and gas group ConocoPhillips has continued its retreat from Russia by selling its 30 percent stake in the NaryanMarNefteGaz joint venture to its partner Lukoil. (Financial Times, 08.23.12).
Other bilateral issues:
· The joint Russian-U.S.-Norwegian naval exercise “Northern Eagle 2012” has entered its final stage and is currently under way in the Barents Sea. The U.S. Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class destroyer “USS Farragut”, the Russian Northern Fleet’s destroyer “Admiral Chabaneko” and the Norwegian coast guard vessel “KV Andenes” will be under Russian command during the final stage of the exercise. (Barents Sea Observer, 08.24.12).
· U.S. and European officials called on Russia to review the case of three members of a feminist-performance group who were convicted of hooliganism Friday and sentenced to two years in prison. The U.S. State Department said it was concerned about "the negative impact on freedom of expression." The European Union's foreign-policy chief, Catherine Ashton, said the sentence was disproportionate to the offense and "puts a serious question mark" over Russia's commitment to judicial independence. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said it is unacceptable to interfere in the work of the courts, in light of the Pussy Riot case. “There is a possibility of filing an appeal. Let's not draw any rash conclusions or go off into hysterics," Lavrov stressed. (Wall Street Journal, 08.18.12, Russia Today, 08.20.12).
· Russia is planning to ask the United States to hand over jailed Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout so that he can serve out the remainder of his 25-year prison term on home soil, the Russian Justice Ministry said. (Reuters, 08.23.12).
II. Russia news.
Domestic Politics, Economy and Energy:
· Russia will fare worse than projected in 2012 amid an expected drop in global oil prices and the ruble's recent depreciation against major world currencies, Deputy Economics Minister Andrei Klepach said. The Economic Development Ministry has raised its inflation forecast for this year from the previously expected 5-6 percent to 7 percent. Average world oil prices are also expected to be lower, at about $109 per barrel, down from the previous forecast of $115 per barrel. Net private capital outflow from Russia is expected to exceed the ministry's forecast of $50 billion this year rather than $25 billion as previously projected, Klepach said. (RIA Novosti, 08.23.12).
· "The fulfilment of social obligations to citizens in all spheres should be an unconditional priority for us. I mean the pension system, our pension obligations, and commitments to workers of budget-financed organizations and our plans to modernize the Armed Forces," Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, which discussed the government's work on the 2013-2015 budget. (RIA Novosti, 08.22.12).
· Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval rating has fallen back to the record-low levels of December 2011, Kommersant daily reported on Friday, citing a survey published by Russian independent pollster Levada Center. Putin saw his approval rating slump to 63 percent in August, 4 percentage points lower than in July. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's approval rating fell 2 points to 57 percent. (RIA Novosti, 08.24.12).
· Almost half of Russians (49 per cent) would want Vladimir Putin's third presidential term to be his last, and for another politician to take the state's top position in six years' time, a poll by Levada Centre has shown. Since March, holders of this opinion have increased by 6 per cent, sociologists said. (Interfax, 08.24.12).
· The Kremlin is grooming influential figures such as liberal-leaning former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and nationalist Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin as possible leaders in the case of a political crisis, and President Vladimir Putin's system of governing resembles the Soviet Politburo more than the so-called power vertical, according to a new report by influential think tank Minchenko Consulting Group. (Moscow Times, 08.22.12).
· Russia's population rose by 85,600 since the beginning of the current year, reaching 143.1 million as of July 1, the Federal Statistics Service said. Last year also saw an increase of 5,100, the service said. Immigration compensated for the natural losses of the population, exceeding them by 150.3 percent. (RIA Novosti, 08.20.12).
· Atomflot, the Murmansk-based home to Russia’s nuclear icebreaker fleet and a division of Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom, has announced the construction of a new mega-ton generation of atomic icebreaker – the project 22220 – said to be the largest ever to be put to sea. (Bellona, 08.24.12).
Defense:
· Russia's newest ballistic missile submarine, the Project 955 Borey class boat Yury Dolgoruky, will be handed over to the Navy in September. (RIA Novosti, 08.17.12).
Security and law-enforcement:
· Ingush leader Yunus-Bek Yevkurov has said that authorities believe the attack on August 19 at a funeral for a slain policeman, which killed eight more officers, was organized by Doku Umarov, the leader of Islamist rebels in Russia's North Caucasus. (RFE/RL, 08.21.12).
· Russian police say they are searching for other members of Pussy Riot, the punk band whose anti-Putin protest inside a Moscow cathedral led to prison sentences for three of the activists. Russia’s human rights ombudsman on Thursday called the two-year prison sentences handed down to the three rockers “excessive” and warned that the case was igniting dangerous social tensions. (AP, 08.22.12, Washington Post, 08.23.12).
· The son of prominent Chechen warlord Ruslan Gelayev was killed in Syria while battling President Bashar Assad's troops, according to reports on three Russian-language websites linked to Islamist rebels. Rustam Gelayev, 24, was killed during an artillery attack in Aleppo between Aug. 11 and 13, the sites said. (Moscow Times, 08.23.12).
· Russia's Federal Narcotics Control Service has announced the seizure of more than 200 kilograms of heroin from Afghanistan in the Moscow region. (RFE/RL, 08.23.12).
Foreign affairs:
· Russia is working closely with the Syrian government to ensure that its arsenal of chemical weapons remains under firm control and has won promises that the weapons of mass destruction will not be used or moved, Moscow's point man on Syria Gennady Gatilov said. (AP, 08.24.12).
· Russia accused Western powers Wednesday of “openly instigating” Syrian opposition groups to take up arms in their fight to unseat President Bashar Assad. (AP, 08.22.12).
· Russia and China have jointly called for other nations to strictly observe the U.N. charter and the international law after the United States said it would bypass the U.N. in its actions on Syria. (Russia Today, 08.21.12).
Russia's neighbors:
· The Ukrainian cabinet has removed Yuri Nedashkovsky from his position as president of Energoatom. The abrupt move comes shortly after an operational issue at the South Ukraine nuclear power plant. (World Nuclear News, 08.21.12).
· German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with the leaders of Moldova on Wednesday to discuss the country's relationship with the EU. Police in Moldova have detained a 23-year-old man suspected of lobbing an incendiary device toward the motorcade of Merkel. (DW, AP, 08.23.12).
· Washington's plans to deploy its military base on Uzbek territory could entail negative political and economic consequences for Moscow, Lt. Gen. Leonid Sazhin, a Russian military expert said. (Interfax, 08.24.12).
· Tajik troops who were recently deployed in the restive Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Province have pulled out of the region under the terms of an agreement with local civil society activists. (RFE/RL, 08.23.12).
· Belarus President Alyaksandr Lukashenka replaced long-time Foreign Minister Syarhey Martynau on August 20. (RFE/RL, 08.22.12).