Press Release
Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of July 20-27, 2012
Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of July 20-27, 2012
I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.
Nuclear security agenda:
· Russia is set to formally back the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, but with caveats enabling the nation to ignore pact rules in the event of a strike on its territory or military. Under orders from Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Foreign Ministry's planned endorsement of the treaty protocol would also free the nation of pact commitments following a potential offensive against any partner government or state beneficiary of a protection arrangement with Moscow. (GSN, 07.27.12).
· NNSA announced the approval of nearly $3 million in funding for collaborative projects aimed at addressing nuclear security challenges. The projects will be managed jointly through the intergovernmental International Science and Technology Center, located in the Russian Federation, and the Science and Technology Center (in Ukraine). (NNSA, 07.26.12).
· Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) on Wednesday said he would not consider U.S. nuclear weapons spending curbs as a means of averting deep budget cuts as mandated under a 2011 law. (GSN, 07.26.12).
· The cost of modernizing one of the key U.S. nuclear weapons has now at least doubled, according to Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.).The program to keep the B61 warhead current now will cost at least $7.9 billion, according to NNSA, which manages the program. The Pentagon’s Cost Analysis Program Evaluation estimates the price tag is even higher: $10 billion, Feinstein says. (Aviation Week, 07.26.12).
Iran nuclear issues:
· No significant developments.
NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to and from Afghanistan:
· No significant developments.
Missile defense:
· The United States invited Russian representatives to attend tests of elements of its missile defense system on Kwajalein Atoll. The move was designed to persuade Moscow that the U.S. system was not targeted against Russia. But the plan failed to come off. While Moscow was considering the invitation, the Pentagon changed its mind and decided against sharing "sensitive information" with Russia. Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress made it clear that no such invitations will be issued in the future. (Kommersant, 07.26.12).
· Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney said: “As part of the so-called reset in policy, missile defenses were sacrificed as a unilateral concession to the Russian government. If that gesture was designed to inspire good will from Russia, it clearly missed the mark.” (M. Romney’s official site, 07.24.12).
· Slovak foreign minister Miroslav Lajcak said in Washington on Thursday that Europe has fully embraced the new approach to missile defense and said Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney was dredging up settled debates. (Wall Street Journal, 07.26.12).
· Washington and Warsaw keep closely discussing the deployment of a U.S. new-generation ballistic missile defense interceptor site in Poland by 2018, Pentagon spokesman George Little said. U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta met on Wednesday with his Polish counterpart Tomasz Siemoniak to discuss, besides other issues, the deployment of the U.S. missile shield elements in Europe. (RIA Novosti, 07.26.12).
Nuclear arms control:
· No significant developments.
Counter-terrorism cooperation:
· No significant developments.
Cyber security:
· No significant developments.
Energy exports from CIS:
· No significant developments.
Access to major markets for exports and imports:
· Congress probably will delay action on legislation to ease U.S. trade relations with Russia until after that country joins the World Trade Organization next month. House Speaker John Boehner, an Ohio Republican, told reporters he doesn't plan a vote next week on the measure. The measure was approved by the House Ways and Means Committee on Thursday. The committee did not have the jurisdiction to take up the Sergei Magnitsky bill, but the chairman, Rep. Dave Camp, R-Mich., said he and the top Democrat on the committee, Rep. Sander Levin of Michigan, supported joining the two bills on the House floor. Russia's reaction to the passing by the US Congress of the Magnitsky bill would be harsh, said the Russian Foreign Ministry representative for human rights Konstantin Dolgov (AP, 07.22.12, Interfax, 07.25.12, Bloomberg, 07.27.12).
Other bilateral issues:
· In his speech Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney criticized the president’s policy toward Russia, which Romney has said remains a “foe.” Vice President Joseph Biden responded to this criticism by saying “Governor Romney remains mired in a Cold War mindset. We have serious disagreements with Moscow, but our cooperation has made the American people more secure.” (TPM, 07.24.12)
· A Russian spy ring busted in the U.S. two years ago planned to recruit members' children to become agents, and one had already agreed to his parents' request. One of the spies infiltrated a well-connected consulting firm with offices in Manhattan and Washington, D.C., by working as the company's in-house computer expert. (Wall Street Journal, 07.26.12).
· The Obama administration is sharply criticizing a new Russian law requiring non-governmental groups that receive funding from abroad and engage in political activity to register as foreign agents. (AP, 07.24.12).
· Two Russian leading NGOs, the Moscow Helsinki Group and movement For Human Rights, have asked U.S. President Barack Obama to clarify whether they are U.S. agents. Under the law, which was signed last Saturday all Russian NGOs which are involved in politics and receive foreign grants must register with the Justice Ministry as "foreign agents." (Interfax, 07.25.12).
II. Russia news.
Domestic Politics, Economy and Energy:
· Sixty-seven percent of respondents backed President Vladimir Putin's decisions and leadership in July, as opposed to 64 percent in June, pollsters from the independent Levada Center said. Forty-one percent said they trusted Putin, a 4 percent rise over the previous month. The same survey found that only 23 percent of respondents trusted Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Fifty-nine percent, however, approved of Medvedev's work. (Moscow Times, 07.27.12).
· One in three Moscow residents gives a negative appraisal of President Putin's activity, the latest Levada Center poll showed 15 percent have a very bad impression of his work, and 16 percent have a bad impression. However, 27 percent approve of it. (Vedomosti, 07.20.12).
· On Friday, Russian Economic Development Minister Andrei Belousov said the government expects the economy to grow by between 3.8 percent and 4 percent this year, having earlier forecast it would grow by 3.4 percent. In May, the EBRD forecast that Russia's economy would grow 4.2 percent this year and 4.3 percent in 2013, roughly in line with the 4.3 percent expansion it posted in 2011. In the bank's latest report, those forecasts were slashed to 3.1 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively. (Wall Street Journal, 07.25.12).
· Russia's central bank chairman Sergei Ignatiev pointed out that in August 2008, on the eve of the last crisis, net foreign assets of the entire Russian banking system stood at negative $100bn, while today this figure - total foreign assets minus total foreign liabilities - is positive $44bn. Total foreign liabilities have shrunk from $208bn in August 2008 to $176bn today. What does worry the central banker is the large outflow of capital from Russia this year and last year. Mr. Ignatiev said that Russian and foreign bank subsidiaries in Russia were responsible for $23bn of the $80bn outflow in 2011. (Financial Times, 07.26.12).
· Since April Russia’s central bank has allowed the rouble to fall 13 percent on lower oil prices. (Financial Times, 07.26.12).
· Unemployment in Russia varies between less than 1 percent in Moscow and 48 percent in Ingushetia. (Interfax, 07.20.12).
· The Italian construction firm Rizzani de Eccher has signed a statement of intent to invest 1 billion euros to develop the tourism sector in Russia's violence-racked North Caucasus region. (RFE/RL, 07.23.12).
· A Russian arbitration court on Friday ordered BP PLC to pay just over 100 billion rubles ($3.1 billion) in damages to TNK-BP, a ruling that the British company called a "corporate attack." Earlier this week, BP said it was in talks to sell its stake in TNK-BP to OAO Rosneft, a move that analysts said could put pressure on AAR, which is also bidding for the stake. (Wall Street Journal, 07.27.12).
Defense:
· Russia is talking to Cuba, Vietnam, and the Indian Ocean island country of Seychelles about housing Russian navy ships, the nation’s navy chief Vice Admiral Viktor Chirkov said. Chirkov also said Russia will preserve its naval logistics base in the Syrian port of Tartus. (AP, Interfax, 07.27.12).
· President Putin has said Russia is not planning to enter a new arms race, but urged senior officials to develop the nuclear arsenal further, along with Russia’s own air and space defenses, so that no one in the world doubts their effectiveness. The president ordered that the share of modern weapons be increased to 75-85 percent for the nuclear forces and to 70 percent for the space and air defense by 2020. (Russia Today, 07.26.12).
· Currently 406,000 serve in the Armed Forces on a contractual basis, including 220,000 officers and 186,000 privates and sergeants, according to the Defense Ministry's Main Personnel Directorate. (Interfax, 07.24.12).
Security and law-enforcement:
· Officials in Russia say police and security forces have killed six suspected armed militants in Makhachkala, capital of the North Caucasus republic of Dagestan. (RFE/RL, 07.27.12).
· Russian police have detained three officials accused of failing to properly warn and evacuate residents in the Black Sea region where floods killed scores of people this month, state investigators said Sunday. (AP, 07.22.12).
· A prison official on trial for negligence in the case of Sergei Magnitsky, the anti-corruption lawyer, has claimed the whistle-blower's death in custody was caused by "extreme stress." (Moscow Times, 07.27.12).
Foreign affairs:
· Russia’s foreign minister says there can be no talk of humanitarian corridors in Syria and accused the West of fueling the violence by supporting the Syrian opposition. (AP, 07.26.12).
· Russia said on Wednesday it had clearly told the Syrian government it was unacceptable to threaten to use chemical weapons, after Damascus warned it might do so if faced with foreign intervention. (Reuters, 07.25.12).
· Moscow says it is ready to host negotiations between the government of President Bashar Assad and the Syrian opposition. Russia is also ready to send 30 military observers to the UN Supervision Mission in Syria, Vitaly Churkin, Russia's ambassador to the UN, said on Wednesday. (Russia Today, 07.26.12).
· Media reports about Chechens allegedly fighting on the side of the Syrian opposition are a barefaced lie aimed at discrediting Russia’s stance on the Syrian problem, says Chechen head Kadyrov. Earlier, several mass media outlets cited Saudi intelligence sources as saying that up to 6,000 foreign volunteers – including from Chechnya – were fighting on the side of the Syrian opposition. (Russia Today, 07.23.12).
· "I don't think anyone in the world, including Assad himself, seriously believes that he will be able to control the country for years to come," Andrei Klimov, who is the vice chairman of the foreign affairs committee in Russia's parliament, said in a phone interview from Syria. "In my view, the ideal situation is if Assad gives control over to someone else, who can maintain the secular nature of the regime and make sure Syria will not become a troublemaker in the region." (Time, 07.26.12.)
· Prime Minister David Cameron says he plans to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin next week at an Olympic judo match. Cameron is expected to press Putin over ending violence in Syria, and to discuss efforts to boost trade. (AP, 07.26.12).
Russia's neighbors:
· Reports from eastern Tajikistan say the government and armed fighters are close to reaching an agreement to hostilities that broke out earlier this week leaving some 70 people dead. (RFE/RL, 07.27.12).
· A former representative of the Chechen separatists in Tbilisi has accused Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili of being responsible for terrorist attacks in Russia. Officials in Tbilisi strongly denied the accusations. (Moscow Times, 07.27.12).
· Ukraine's parliament will reconvene for an extra session on Monday, the chamber said, in a move which could lead to a contentious bill to make Russian the official language in parts of the former Soviet republic being signed into law. (Reuters, 07.27.12).