Russia in Review

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of January 6 - 13, 2012

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of January 6-13, 2012

I. U.S. and Russia priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

Russia and the United States ranked 24^th and 13th among a set of 32 nations holding 1 kilogram or more of weapons-usable nuclear material, according to a first-of-its-kind security index commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative. North Korea and Pakistan have the world’s worst overall atomic material security conditions, according to the index. “Russia has made tremendous progress in securing its weapons-usable nuclear materials,” according to the index. (GSN, NTI 01.12.11).
A research team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has developed a next-generation radiation detector that will be cheaper and more accurate than devices now deployed to guard New York and other cities against nuclear terrorism. (Newsday, 01.11.12).
Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces plan to at least double the rates of re-equipping its facilities with new security and defense systems two-fold as a minimum as of 2012, a spokesman for the Troops, Colonel Vadim Koval said. “Under the conditions of existing terrorist threats one of the main tasks for the Strategic Missile Forces is to thwart nuclear terrorism attempts. As a result one of the main activities for the command of the Strategic Missile Troops is to upgrade security and defense capacities of strategic facilities and increase their anti-terrorism resistance,” he said. (Itar-Tass, 01.07.12).
Vladimir Dvorkin, a nuclear weapons expert in the Russian Defense Ministry in the early 1990s, said Gen. Alexander Lebed didn't know what he was talking about when he claimed that the Russian military lost track of dozens of suitcase-sized portable nuclear devices. "I personally know people who were counting the weapons at centralized depots, and they have confirmed that nothing was stolen," he said. (AP, 01.18.12).

Iran nuclear issues:

Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said there was still no proof that Iran was on the brink of creating nuclear weapons. He also said Russia fears Israel will push the United States into a military conflict with Iran, which could retaliate by blocking oil shipments from the Gulf. (Moscow Times, 01.13.12).
"Moscow has met reports on the start of uranium enrichment at an Iranian plant near Qom with regret and concern," a Russian Foreign Ministry official said. "We should recognize that Iran is continuing to ignore the demands of the international community that it respond to their concerns regarding its nuclear program," the official said. (Reuters/Haaretz, 01.10.12).
Russia opposes U.S. and possible European oil sanctions against Iran, even if Tehran presses ahead with uranium enrichment which Western powers say serves military goals, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Wednesday. An armed operation against Iran would be “the biggest mistake” and a “gross miscalculation” on the part of the West, he said. (Itar-Tass, 01.11.12, Reuters, 01.11.12).
Iran will be able to possess uranium enrichment technology sufficient for building a nuclear explosive device in a year, says Vladimir Dvorkin, the chief research associate with the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of World Economy and International Relations. Col. Gen. (Ret.) Viktor Yesin, a former chief of staff of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces (RVSN), shares this opinion. "After a political decision is made, Iran could build a nuclear explosive device in a year and a half or two," Yesin said. (Interfax, 01.11.12).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to Afghanistan:

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said: “Our countries became closer partners in expanding supply routes into Afghanistan. More than 1,700 flights and more than 277,000 military personnel have transited these routes, while Russia’s ground transit agreement with NATO has resulted in the shipment of more than 37,000 containers of supplies to NATO ISAF troops in Afghanistan.” (State Department, 01.10.12).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

No significant developments.

Missile defense:

The United States and Russia will conclude a missile defense cooperation agreement as a result of the "strategic stability" talks between the two powers, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control Ellen Tauscher said on Thursday. Tauscher said progress would speed up once the March presidential elections in Russia had subsided. She also acknowledged that the Russians are demanding a legally binding document from the Obama administration promising U.S. missile defenses in Europe will not impact Russia's strategic deterrent, which Tauscher said they will never get. (Foreign Policy, 01.12.11).
Russia is ready for dialogue on missile defense but urges its partners to ponder the meaning of the word “agreement,” Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. “We want to have a rather reliable basis for relations with the U.S. in the field of strategic arms in the form of legal and binding guarantees that the future missile defense….. assurances, albeit in writing, would not be enough,” he said. (Itar-Tass, 01.11.12).
The United States regrets that more headway has not been realized in the missile defense discussions it has engaged in for more than a year with Russia, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon said. (GSN, 01.10.12).
In upcoming antimissile talks with Moscow, U.S. delegates would provide specifics about the European missile defense program, according to U.S. Assistant Defense Secretary Alexander Vershbow. (GSN, 01.09.12).
President Obama is required under legislation signed into law to give U.S. lawmakers 60 days' notice before disclosing any sensitive missile defense data to Russia, Representative Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) said. (GSN, 01.06.12).
Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachyov predicted that 2012 would not see any major advances in missile shield talks with the United States. Still, Kosachyov allowed that there remained some possibility an eventual compromise could be reached. (GSN, 01.10.11).

Nuclear arms control:

Undersecretary of State for Arms Control Ellen Tauscher said the Obama administration hopes the U.S.-Russian "strategic stability" talks will establish reliability and durability in the relationship, which will lead to further nuclear reduction talks following Russia's presidential election, including discussions about reducing Russia's tactical nuclear stockpile. "We want to get back to the table with the Russians both on strategic and non-strategic, deployed and non-deployed. That means everything," she said. (Foreign Policy, 01.12.11).

Energy exports from CIS:

Sergei Kupriyanov, an official representative of Russia's state-owned natural gas giant Gazprom, said today that Ukraine cannot cut in half the amount of gas it is contracted to purchase from Gazprom. Ukrainian Energy Minister Yury Boiko said on January 11 that Ukraine would only purchase some 27 bcm of gas from Gazprom this year. (Interfax, 01.12.12).
Kazakhstan will increase production of oil annually by an average of 125,000 bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts in its short-term energy outlook. "Notable production declines occur in Russia," EIA said. (Trend, 01.11.12).

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton swore in Mike McFaul as the U.S. ambassador to Russia at a ceremony on Tuesday at the State Department. "This administration has placed a particular emphasis on working together with Russia, one of the most complex and consequential relationships we have with any nation in the world,” she said. In his remarks, McFaul defended the reset policy. McFaul will take up his duties as U.S. ambassador to Russia on January 14. (Foreign Policy, Interfax, 01.11.12).
Undersecretary of State for Arms Control Ellen Tauscher disputed the contention that U.S.-Russia relations have peaked, and she dismissed those who have pointed to official comments from either side that seem to indicate the U.S.-Russia "reset" policy is coming to an end. "While you might pick little data points out and say well there's a little bit of snotty talk here or there... the truth is everything is moving along, nose up, things are good." (Foreign Policy, 01.12.11).
Russia’s space chief says the recent failures of his country’s spacecraft may have been caused by hostile interference. Roskosmos chief Vladimir Popovkin stopped short of accusing the United States of disabling Russian satellites, but said some Russian craft had suffered malfunctions while flying beyond the reach of its tracking facilities. (AP, 01.10.12).
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice criticized Russia in the United Nations Security Council for vetoing, together with China, a European-drafted resolution that would have condemned Syria's crackdown on anti-government protests. (AP, 01.12.12).
An agreement on the facilitation of visa regime between Russia and the United States will be ratified within the next several months, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. (Itar-Tass, 01.11.12).
The U.S. Energy Department won’t follow through on a planned $730 million loan to the North American arm of Severstal, one of Russia’s largest steel companies to modernize its Detroit-area plant. (AP, 01.06.12).

II. Russia news.

Domestic Politics, Economy and Energy:

Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has proposed greater accountability of the government, promised liberalization of society, higher wages and pensions, and a proactive foreign policy ahead of presidential elections slated for March 4, which he is determined to win. Putin called for the creation of a system of administrative courts to be set up to hear complaints by citizens against the state. Putin vowed to continue the modernization of the Armed Forces and enhance their operational effectiveness. (RIA Novosti, 01.12.12).
President Dmitry Medvedev has dismissed Russian Security Council Deputy Secretary Yuri Baluyevsky. (Itar-Tass, 01.10.12).
President Dmitry Medvedev ordered First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov to create and head a task force to fight financial crime, including money-laundering. (Moscow Times, 01.12.12).
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has given former Kremlin chief of staff Vladislav Surkov responsibility for social policy, a portfolio likely to be viewed as a demotion for a man once seen as the architect of Russia's political system. (Reuters, 01.13.12).
President Dmitry Medvedev has dismissed Russian Security Council Deputy Secretary Yuri Baluyevsky. (Itar-Tass, 01.10.12).
Russian opposition groups said on Tuesday they would hold a rally near the Kremlin on February 4. (Reuters, 01.10.12).
The leader of the Orthodox Church and former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin urged Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to listen to protesters and take steps to accommodate them as a way of shoring up eroding confidence in the government. (Washington Post, 01.07.12).
The Dec. 4 State Duma elections failed to meet democratic standards and were fraught with violations, Europe's main elections watchdog said in a final assessment published Thursday. (Moscow Times, 01.13.12).
Russia's growth ticked up to 4.2 percent in 2011 from 4.0 percent in 2010, making it one of the three best-performing major economies in the world, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Thursday. (AFP, 01.12.12).
Russia's inflation rate for 2011 hit a historical mark -- the lowest since the collapse of the Soviet Union -- having plummeted to 6.1 percent from 8.8 percent registered in 2010 and 2009. (Moscow News, 01.10.12).
Capital flight from Russia more than doubled last year with almost $38 billion leaving the country in the fourth quarter and now stands at about 4 percent of gross domestic product. (Moscow Times, 01.11.12, Wall Street Journal, 01.12.12).
Brazil, Russia, India, and China did worse in the stock markets in 2011 than Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain. As a group, they were down 26 percent in U.S. dollar terms versus a decline of 23 percent for the bad boys of the eurozone. (Financial Times, 01.10.12).
Russia’s score in the 2012 Index of Economic Freedom is 50.5, making its economy the 144th freest in the 2012 Index. Its score is unchanged from last year, with a significant increase in business freedom counterbalanced by a significant deterioration in control of government spending. (Heritage, 01.12.11).
Russia must reduce jail populations and scale back the number of pre-trial detainees, the European Court of Human Rights said Tuesday. (AFP, 01.10.12).

Defense:

Russia needs to abandon the idea of purchasing foreign arms and military hardware and to consider doing so only in exceptional cases, said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. In addition to the defense industry, Rogozin supervises the nuclear and space industries. (Interfax, Gazeta.ru 01.11.12).

Security and law-enforcement:

Russia's Interior Ministry says Islamic insurgents have killed four Russian troops and wounded 16 as federal forces attempted to flush out a rebel hideout in Chechnya. (RFE/RL, 01.09.12).
Dmitry Rogozin, a deputy prime minister in charge of the defence industry, ordered new security measures to be in place at Russia's military and space-related factories by the end of January. The measures were order after group of bloggers snuck into a highly sensitive rocket engine testing facility just outside Moscow and published almost one hundred photographs of their exploits on the internet. (Guardian, 01.09.12).

Foreign affairs:

Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergei Ryabkov of Russia and Munawar Saeed Bhatti of Pakistan held the 7th meeting on strategic stability on Wednesday, January 11, to discuss “pressing issues related to arms control, non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and international security,” the Foreign Ministry said. “A great deal of attention was paid to ways to unblock the work of the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva,” the ministry said. (Itar-Tass, 01.11.12).
Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said Russia received information that NATO members and some Persian Gulf countries are preparing military intervention in Syria. The West is putting pressure on Syria because the country refuses to break off its alliance with Iran and not for repressing the opposition, Patrushev said. (Moscow Times, 01.13.12).
The Syrian port of Tartus is Russia’s only military base outside the old Soviet Union. So the arrival there of the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft-carrier and a few other warships earlier this month brought a warm welcome from Bashar Assad’s defense minister, General Dawood Rajiha, who praised Russia’s “honourable” support for his government. (Economist, 01.13.12).
A Russian ship, allegedly carrying tons of weapons, made a dash for Syria after Cypriot officials allowed it to leave their waters, Turkish officials said Thursday. The ship had made an unscheduled stop in Cyprus Tuesday, technically violating an EU embargo on arms shipments to Syria. (AP, 01.12.12).
Russia said on Tuesday Arab League monitors are playing a stabilizing role in Syria, disagreeing with Syrian opposition figures who say the mission has only given President Bashar al-Assad more time to crush opponents. (Reuters, 01.10.12).
Another sign that Russia may be going its own way on Iran is a decision, announced this week in Tehran, that Russia and Iran will henceforth use Russian rubles and Iranian rials in their bilateral trade, and eschew the US dollar. (Christian Science Monitor, 01.11.12.)

Russia's neighbors:

No significant developments.