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Russia in Review

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A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of December 9-16, 2011

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of December 9-16, 2011

  1. I. U.S. and Russia priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

  • Russia’s customs agency said Friday that it seized radioactive metal from the luggage of an Iranian passenger bound for Tehran. The Federal Customs Service said in a statement that its agents found 18 pieces of metal at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport after a radiation alert went on. The pieces contained Sodium-22, she said, a radioactive isotope of sodium that could be produced in a particle accelerator. (AP, 12.16.11).
  • Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., and former Sen. Sam Nunn, D-Ga reunited on Monday to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat-Reduction Program. The program deactivated more than 7,600 nuclear warheads and destroyed more than 2,300 strategic missiles, 155 strategic bombers, and 33 ballistic-missile submarines. 24 storage sites were secured, as were more than 2,260 tons of nerve agent—enough, Nunn said, to kill every man, woman and child on the planet four times over.  (National Journal Daily, 12.12.11).
  • Former Interior Minister of Russia Anatoly Kulikov said: “There is no need to discuss how real it (the threat of nuclear terrorism) is.” (Voenno-Promyshlenny Kuryer, 12.14.11).
  • Former chief of the International Cooperation Department of the Russian Defense Leonid Ivashov said: “An honest dialogue is no less important when the threat of nuclear terrorism is discussed” with the United States. “Can a preventive nuclear strike be described as an act of nuclear terrorism?... Possibly, the issue is use of a miniature nuclear device by Islamists. The latter underscores necessity of international cooperation in prevention of this threat.” (Voenno-Promyshlenny Kuryer, 12.14.11).

Iran nuclear issues:

  • Iran has sent Saeed Jalili, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, to Moscow to meet Russian officials over the recent U.S. drone disputes as well as the nuclear issue, local Tehran Times daily reported Monday. (Xinhua, 12.12.11).
  • Iran has neither technology nor industrial potential to build ballistic missiles, Strategic Missile Forces chief Lt. Gen. Sergei Karakayev said on Friday. (Trend, 12.16.11).
  • Russia and India are concerned about the situation developing around Iran and its nuclear program but are against unilateral sanctions, a joint statement by the Russian and Indian leaders, made following the bilateral summit in Moscow, said. (Interfax, 12.16.11).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to Afghanistan:

  • Russia will decide whether it will participate in the NATO summit next year after the presidential election in March and much will depend on progress in the missile defense issue, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. The latest session of a U.S.-Russian arms control working group this week was conducted satisfactorily, though no breakthroughs were achieved, Ryabkov said.  He also said Russia calmly reacted to the U.S. decision to stop exchanging information with Moscow over the compliance with the Conventional Forces Europe Treaty as it obtains the necessary information through other channels. (Itar-Tass, 12.16.11).
  • "We cannot really understand the aim of bases (in Central Asia) there because if 100,000 American troops—plus 50,000 of other [allied] troops—failed to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan, how can the remaining troops [do so]?" Russia's special envoy to the country, Zamir Kabulov said. (Russia Today, 12.11.11).
  • Forty-three percent of Russians interviewed in a recent survey supported cooperation with NATO, compared to 33 percent two years ago, according to sociologists of the All Russian Center for Public Opinion Studies. (Interfax, 12.09.11).

 

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

  • No significant developments.

Missile defense:

  • The nomination of Mike McFaul to become ambassador to Russia cleared one major hurdle Thursday as Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) lifted his hold. On Tuesday, Robert Nabors, director of the White House office of legislative affairs, wrote a letter to Kirk which said: "We will not provide Russia with sensitive information about our missile defense systems that would in any way compromise our national security. For example, hit-to-kill technology and interceptor telemetry will under no circumstances be provided to Russia," wrote Nabors. Kirk said that this assurance, combined with new language in the defense authorization bill requiring 60 days notice before any classified missile defense data is shared with Russia, was enough to reassure him that no classified missile defense data will ever be shared. (Foreign Policy, 12.15.11).
  • Russia will develop a new liquid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missile to overcome the U.S.’s prospective missile defense system, Strategic Missile Forces chief Lt. Gen. Sergei Karakayev said on Friday. Russia’s solid-propellant ICBMs may be unable to penetrate missile defenses, the general said. (RIA Novosti, 12.16.11.).
  • Russia’s new anti-missile radar station in the Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad will become fully operational by the middle of 2014, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said. (RIA Novosti, 12.15.11).
  • Romania has given final approval for the building of an anti-ballistic interceptor site in the country as part of a U.S. missile shield. (AP, 12.15.11).
  • Brookings senior fellow Fiona Hill said of the Valdai Club’s November 2011 meeting with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin: “Putin got lively when he talked about missile defense…. He drew all kinds of trajectories through space of the interception of ballistic missiles … trying to show us the way that the currently proposed missile defense system was targeted against missiles... He expressed a personal conviction, his view, that missile defense is all about Russia, not Iran — he didn’t even really mention Iran — and the intent was to intercept Russian ICBMs.” (Brookings’ web site, 12.14.11).

Nuclear arms control:

  • House and Senate negotiators made several changes to appease the Obama administration, including abandoning of a House effort to limit the president's ability to implement the New START treaty.  (AP, 12.14.11).
  • U.S. inspection teams have conducted 12 inspections of Strategic Missile Forces facilities in Russia under the New START treaty, SMF chief Lt. Gen. Sergei Karakayev said on Friday. (RIA Novosti, 12.16.11).
  • The Pentagon is looking at bringing the U.S. nuclear arsenal below the levels set in the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. One policy review is looking for ways to reduce Pentagon budget growth by at least $450 billion over the next decade. A second review is examining fundamental questions of U.S. nuclear policy, such as how many nuclear weapons the country needs for the future and why. (Arms Control Today, December 2011).
  • “After being assured that the New START treaty would contribute to the improvement of U.S.-Russia relations, and that the Russian government would not use the treaty against us as blackmail, we are now in a situation where the president of Russia is threatening to deploy ballistic missiles to destroy U.S. missile defense systems in Europe,” Sen. John McCain said. (AP, 12.15.11).

Energy exports from CIS:

  • A draft agreement on natural gas proposing the creation of two joint ventures with Gazprom was submitted to Russian and Ukrainian officials. The first venture would include gas transit pipelines and underground reservoirs. The second venture with Gazprom would be a domestic Ukrainian gas distributor created from networks now being leased by regional distribution companies. (Moscow Times, 12.13.11).

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

  • The World Trade Organization on Friday gave its second and final approval for Russia's membership in the trade body after a record 18-year quest to join. Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said he sees  Russia ratifying WTO accession after the March 2011 presidential election, as it may need time to amend some laws. (AFP, Reuters, 12.16.11).
  • The White House faces a major challenge next year persuading the U.S. Congress to permanently normalize trade relations with Russia due to concerns about human rights and Moscow's relations with Iran, Kevin Brady, a senior Republican lawmaker said Tuesday.  (Reuters, 12.14.11).

Other bilateral issues:

  • Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said of protests in Russia: “Russia has one of the most highly educated populations in the world and a growing middle class, so this didn’t come from the outside, it came from within.” (AP, 12.14.11).
  • Russia's once-and-future president, Vladimir Putin, should stop blaming Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for Russia's domestic unrest and take a look in the mirror, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said on Friday.  (Foreign Policy, 12.09.11).
  • Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon praised Russian authorities for allowing the peaceful protests.  He said: "We were greatly encouraged to see these rights and responsibilities carried out so well." (AP, 12.14.11).
  • Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Thomas O. Melia testified in the Senate that the Obama Administration submitted a Congressional Notification in October proposing to create a new $50 million fund to increase support of Russian civil society. (U.S State Department, 12.14.11).
  • Senator Richard Lugar said the protests taking place in Russia against the ruling power in the Kremlin have been influenced by the Arab Spring and online social-media networks. (RFE/RL, 12.12.11).
  • Russia and the United States are planning a regular exchange on "technical threats" that appear to come from computers in each other's territories, a White House spokeswoman said Friday.  (Reuters, 12.12.11).

  1. II. Russia news.

 

Domestic Politics, Economy and Energy:

  • Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ridiculed opposition protesters, assailed the United States and hinted at further political reform in a traditional televised call-in show. Putin made his first public comments about the weekend protest Thursday, rejecting a core demand for new elections, but proposed to place web cameras at each of Russia’s more than 90,000 polling stations by the presidential vote. He also suggested governors could be elected again but only from a list put forward by the Kremlin and that legislation might be altered to allow small opposition parties to be registered. But any notions of a softer Putin were crushed when he turned to foreign policy, lashing out at the United States. “Sometimes I think that America does not need allies, it needs vassals. But we want and we will develop cooperation with the United States, because I see that a transformation is taking place inside the United States itself,” he said. "They still fear our nuclear potential. We also carry an independent foreign policy, and, of course, it's an impediment for some,” Putin said. (Moscow Times, 12.16.11, Reuters, AP, 12.15.11).
  • Tens of thousands of people took to the streets across Russia on Saturday to demand an end to Vladimir Putin's rule and a rerun of a parliamentary election. Opposition leaders estimated 60,000 or more people took part in the Moscow rally alone.  Police estimated that about 25,000 people attended the pro-Kremlin rally on Manezh Square on Monday. Opposition activists have been allowed to hold a 50,000-strong rally on December 24 in Moscow. (Moscow Times, 12.13.11, RIA Novosti, 12.14.11, Reuters, 12.10.11).
  • Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's approval rating has dropped to its lowest level of the year in the first opinion poll published since his ruling party suffered an election setback and he faced the biggest protests of his 12-year rule. A poll conducted on December 10-11 and released Friday showed 51 percent of Russians approved of how he has done his job, down from 61 percent in a November 28-29 survey and 68 percent in January, state pollster VTsIOM said. (AP, 12.16.11).
  • President Dmitry Medvedev called Tuesday for an easing of “accumulated restraints” in Russian political life, saying this was needed to avert serious divisions in society. Medvedev has also ordered his government to investigate allegations of vote rigging in the country's parliamentary elections, but also decreed to convene the first session of State Duma next Wednesday, Dec 21. He will address both State Duma and Federation Council on Dec. 22. (RIA Novosti, Moscow Times, 12.15.11, Financial Times, 12.13.11).
  • The speaker will be elected at the new Duma’s first session on December 21. Having worked a lot with both President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Sergei Naryshkin and Alexander Zhukov appear the most experienced lawmakers from among others elected with United Russia. The previous speaker Boris Gryzlov has resigned. After Kremlin chief of staff Naryshkin decided to change his job and take up a seat in the Duma, his duties will be temporarily performed by his first deputy Vladislav Surkov. (Itar-Tass, 12.15.11).
  • The previous State Duma’s speaker Boris Gryzlov said that 14 out of the 29 committees in the Duma should be led by opposition factions and 15 by United Russia. (Interfax, 12.14.11).
  • Russian President Dmitry Medvedev confirmed acting Finance Minister Anton Siluanov in the post on Friday. On Thursday Putin said ex-Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin could have a future role in government. (Reuters, 12.16.11).
  • The Central Election Commission has begun the registration of presidential candidates. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was the first to request registration.  A Just Russia leader Sergei Mironov is still at a preliminary stage. Vladimir Zhirinovsky, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, is to make similar moves shortly. The Communist Party and Yabloko Party will convene on December 17 and December 18, respectively, to nominate their candidates. (Itar-Tass, 12.14.11).
  • Mikhail Prokhorov, the Russian billionaire who plans to challenge Vladimir Putin in Russia’s presidential election said Thursday that his first move if elected will be to pardon jailed tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said he is ready to take part in the creation of a liberal political party and has consulted ousted Prokhorov on the issue. (AP, Moscow Times, 12.15.11).
  • The Russian Orthodox Church added its influential voice over the weekend to calls for a just election process in Russia. (Reuters, 12.14.11).
  • The Internet must be subject to "reasonable regulation," head of Russia's Security Council Nikolai Patrushev said. (Reuters, 12.14.11).
  • Russia's economy grew at the fastest pace in more than a year. Gross domestic product expanded 4.8 percent in the July-September period from a year earlier. (Bloomberg, 12.12.11).
  • Rosenergoatom's data show that 10 nuclear power plants are currently active in Russia. They comprise 32 reactors with a total capacity of 24.2 gigawatts, and supply approximately 16.6 percent of the country's electricity. According to the government's current plan, the nuclear share will rise to 25 percent by 2030 with the addition of 39 new reactors. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin attended the launch of a new nuclear power reactor Monday, calling it part of a “renaissance” of atomic energy. (Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 12.13.11, AP, 12.12.11.).
  • A fire broke out aboard an atomic-powered icebreaker in Siberian waters on Thursday, killing two crewmen but causing no radiation leak, Russian authorities said. (Reuters, 12.15.11).
  • TNK-BP, a Russian joint venture of British oil giant BP, said Wednesday it will invest up to $10 billion in developing Arctic oilfields. (AP, 12.14.11).

Defense:

  • See missile defense section above.

Security and law-enforcement:

  • German prosecutors indicted five men, including four German banking executives, on charges of laundering $150 million for former Russian telecommunications minister Leonid Reiman in one of the highest-level criminal probes of a Russian official outside Russia. (Wall Street Journal, 12.14.11).
  • Khadzhimurad Kamalov, the founder of the Chernovik newspaper critical of authorities in the restive province of Dagestan in Russia’s North Caucasus, has died after he was gunned down in a hail of bullets outside his office, police said Friday. (AP, 12.16.11).

Foreign affairs:

  • Russia put forth a draft United Nations Security Council resolution on the violence in Syria on Thursday. The text condemns the violence from both sides, but includes a reference to "disproportionate use of force by Syrian authorities." It does not, however, call for sanctions. (AP, 12.16.11).
  • Speaking at a news conference with EU President Herman van Rompuy and European Commission head Jose Manuel Barroso, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that his country may offer more than the $10 billion it already has promised the International Monetary Fund to help support the struggling euro currency. (AP, 12.15.11).
  • The European Parliament has passed a resolution recommending an EU-wide travel ban and asset freeze for officials tied to the death of Hermitage Capital lawyer Sergei Magnitsky. (Moscow Times, 12.16.11).
  • Russia signed a deal Friday to provide India with 42 fighter jets, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said after meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. But the two nations have failed to strike a deal on a nuclear power plant. Medvedev said Russia backs India’s bid to become a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (Reuters, 12.16.11).
  • Russia supports Canada’s decision to pull out of the Kyoto Protocol, says its foreign ministry, reaffirming Friday that Moscow will not take on new commitments. (AP, 12.16.11).

Russia's neighbors:

  • Igor Smirnov, veteran leader of Moldova's breakaway region of Transdnestr sought to cling to power on Monday, calling for the annulment of an election which his two main rivals said he had lost. (Reuters, 12.13.11).
  • At least 10 people were killed Friday in violent clashes between police and demonstrators in an oil town in western Kazakhstan where workers have been protesting for higher wages, authorities said. (AP, 12.16.11).
  • Twelve men have been jailed for up to 15 years by a court in northwestern Kazakhstan after being called "associates of Kazakhstan's first-ever suicide bomber.” (RFE/RL, 12.14.11).
  • A Ukrainian court on Wednesday threw out a charge against former President Leonid Kuchma alleging involvement in the 2000 murder of opposition journalist Heorhiy Gongadze. (Reuters, 12.15.11).