Russia in Review

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for November 10 - 18, 2011

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for November 10-18, 2011

I. U.S. and Russia priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

The U.S. Cooperative Threat Reduction Program in September helped facilitate elimination of one ICBM and four SLBMs. (GSN, 11.17.11).
Steven Pifer of the Brookings Institution said the tendency to label Russia as the source of loose nuclear material is "unfair" to Moscow. Russian security services have a "huge interest in stopping this because they cannot assume that if a significant amount of highly enriched uranium got out to the bad guys somewhere ... that that would not be detonated somewhere in Russia," Pifer said. (GSN, 11.16.11).

Iran nuclear issues:

The UN nuclear watchdog board of governors censured Iran on Friday over mounting suspicions it may be seeking to develop atomic bombs, after the six big powers overcame divisions on how to best deal with a defiant Tehran. (Reuters, 11.18.11).
“We consider the road of sanctions against Iran exhausted,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. (RIA Novosti, 11.14.11).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to Afghanistan:

U.S. efforts to eradicate Afghanistan's opium poppy crops, which cover an area about the size of New York City, have been “unsatisfactory,'' Viktor Ivanov, director of Russia's Federal Service for the Control of Narcotics said in Chicago after meetings with his American counterparts. (Reuters, 11.17.11).
The U.S. Department of Defense awarded the Russian Federal Service for Military Technical Cooperation an airworthiness certificate for the Mi-17V-5 helicopters to be delivered to the Afghan national army under contract. (Interfax, 11.16.11).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

No significant developments.

Missile defense:

The Obama administration is set to offer more concessions to the Russians on missile defense. Undersecretary of State Ellen Tauscher discussed the proposal in recent talks with the Russians couched as an offer of technical data on the Navy’s SM-3 missile burnout velocity. The idea behind the offer is to assuage Russian fears that U.S. missile defenses in Europe will target Moscow’s missiles. (Washington Times, 11.16.11).
Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman said: “The United States plainly said that it could not give Russia legally binding guarantees. Political guarantees though were a different matter. Washington is prepared to give them.” (Kommersant, 11.17.11.)
Reluctance to provide legally binding guarantees NATO’s missile defense will not be used against NATO indicates that this system will eventually be targeted against Russia, the chairman of the State Duma’s international affairs committee, Konstantin Kosachyov, said on Thursday. (Itar-Tass, 11.17.11).
At this week’s meeting of the NATO-Russia Council, a body meant to improve relations, Russia’s deputy defense minister, Anatoly Antonov, complained that NATO was pressing ahead even though Russia’s conditions for co-operation had not been met. (Economist, 11.19.11).
Russia has asked for Britain's help in resolving the impasse in talks over the proposed European nuclear defense shield. (Independent, 11.15.11).
Russia plans to fully rebuild the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said. Russia is negotiating with Azerbaijan to extend lease of the Gabala radar until 2025. (Trend, 11.18.11.).

Nuclear arms control:

A looming automatic reduction in Defense Department spending could require the United States to eliminate its entire fleet of 450 ICBMs, prompting an unprecedented overhaul of the nation's nuclear strategy, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told lawmakers in a letter. (GSN, 11.15.11).
U.S. military leaders are looking for ways, within the recently signed New START treaty with Russia, to find "some different force mixtures that might be more financially efficient," Gen. Robert Kehler, chief of the U.S. Strategic Command said. (Omaha World Herald, 11.17.11).
"The previous START treaty was flawed, but there were attempts to extend it. The new START is the first treaty that satisfies us," Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov said (Interfax, 11.17.11).

Energy exports from CIS:

No significant developments.

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) approval of Mike McFaul's nomination to become U.S. ambassador to Russia was delayed on Tuesday by GOP senators, but today several Republicans are coming to McFaul's aid. A group of former GOP national security officials wrote to SFRC leaders John Kerry and Richard Lugar to express their support for the McFaul nomination. (Foreign Policy, 11.16.11).
Russia and the United States will exchange notes on facilitating the visa regime on November 19, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. (RIA Novosti, 11.17.11).
The U.S. government marked the second anniversary of the prison death of Hermitage Capital lawyer Sergei Magnitsky on Wednesday by urging the Russian government to hold accountable those officials involved in his death. (Moscow Times, 11.17.11).
American exports to Russia are only about $6 billion a year, and imports are $8 billion. (New York Times, 11.12.11).

II. 11.12.11. Meeting of U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian president Dmitry Medvedev on sidelines of ASEAN summit in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Medvedev said: "It is unclear to us what our partners are offering, and I think we will in the near future determine what we should do with the European missile defensive system.” “Our positions still remain far apart,” he said. (Reuters, RIA Novosti, 11.13.11).
The situation with missile defense is so tangled in fact that it is interfering with Barack Obama's plans to visit Russia that was first scheduled for September and then rescheduled for December. "No preparations for the visit are under way... meaning that he is not coming this year," a source in the Russian delegation said. (Izvestia, 11.15.11).
Obama said that China and Russia share the United States' objective of ensuring Iran does not make weapons via its nuclear program. The U.S. leader also said he and Medvedev “reaffirmed our intention to work and shape a common response so we can move Iran to follow its international obligations when it comes to its nuclear program.” (Reuters, Wall Street Journal, 11.13.11.).
Obama said he and Medvedev discussed Afghanistan, Iran and Syria. Obama gave no details about the discussion on Syria. On Afghanistan, he said they discussed the importance of regional powers supporting the government in Kabul. (Reuters, 11.13.11).
Obama congratulated Russia on its move toward membership in the World Trade Organization and said it’s a good time to consult with Congress about ending the application of the Jackson-Vanik law to Russia. Medvedev said: “We have not been offered such support by the (previous) U.S. administrations before.” (AP, 11.12.11, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Moscow Times, 11.13.11).

III. 11.12.11 meeting of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin with Valdai Club members

Putin said: "We believe that the establishment of a missile defense system is a threat to our nuclear potential and we will be compelled to respond.” (Interfax, 11.14.11).
Putin challenged the U.S. goal to pull out of Afghanistan by 2014. The complete withdrawal should happen only after the country reaches full stability. "I believe the international forces are playing a positive role in Afghanistan," he said. (Moscow Times, Interfax, 11.14.11).
Putin said that he has recently read a report on the attitude of average Americans towards Russia and polling them shows that the majority still perceives Russia foremost as a country that can destroy America in half an hour. “Firstly, we can do that a lot faster. Secondly, I regret that Americans start with this argument when thinking about Russia. Old thinking remains,” Putin said. (Kommersant, 11.14.11).
Putin expressed concerns that changes in the Middle East could lead Islamist radicals to come to power. "Syria is the next in line: What will be the result?" (Wall Street Journal, 11.12.11).
Putin said: “We don't believe [the current style of government] has run its course, but we are not going to just mark time." "In any event, these changes are going to be evolutionary,” he said. (Moscow News, Moscow Times, 11.14.11).
Putin reconfirmed previous statements that Medvedev would enjoy broad powers as prime minister, but his cabinet would have new faces. (Moscow Times, 11.14.11).
Putin said Gazprom should retain its monopoly on gas exports and complained that the European Union was trying to "squeeze us out of the European energy market." (Moscow Times, Wall Street Journal, 11.14.11).

IV. Russia news.

Domestic Politics, Economy and Energy:

Gross domestic product rose 4.8 percent in the three months to September compared to the previous year. (Financial Times, 11.15.11).
Under the “worst-case” scenario, (WTO) entry may wipe 0.5 percentage points per year off economic growth, said Maxim Medvedkov, Russia’s chief WTO negotiator. After acceding, Russia may challenge European Union moves to force Gazprom to give competitors access to its transport networks, he added. (Bloomberg, 11.16.11).
The 2012-2014 federal budget draft provides for reduction of total public sector spending on education, healthcare, and communal and housing utilities by 150 percent. At the same time, the budget calls for sharp hikes in spending on defense and national security, by roughly 150 percent. (Russia Profile, 11.17.11).
The International Energy Agency stressed in its annual World Energy Outlook report released last week that while Russia’s domestic inefficiencies are enormous. Russia wastes almost one-third of the energy that it uses — an amount similar to that consumed by Britain every year, the report said. Potential yearly savings of natural gas alone, about 180 billion cubic meters, are equivalent to Gazprom's entire annual export volumes. (Moscow Times, 11.14.11).
Russia topped a ranking of the 18 European countries with the largest number of Internet users, with the figure reaching 50.8 million in September. (Moscow Times, 11.17.11).
In early 2011 Russian equities soared 21 percent, an increase four times larger than the 5 percent rise in global emerging markets. In the grim months that have followed, Russia is down almost 30 percent. (Financial Times, 11.17.11).
"There was a risk that world demand [for nuclear reactors] would collapse after Fukushima," "Competition has become much tougher... But we have doubled our order book,” Sergei Kirienko, the president of Rosatom, said. (Financial Times, 11.14.11).
A Siberian court in the oil town of Tyumen rejected a $13bn suit against BP and a $2.8bn suit against two BP-nominated directors on the board of TNK-BP Holding, which were filed by a group of minority shareholders in TNK-BP, BP's Russian venture. (Financial Times, 11.12.11).
Roughly 1.25 million Russians have left the country in the last 10 years, said Sergei Stepashin, head of the national Audit Chamber. (Los Angeles Times, 11.14.11).

Defense:

Russia is facing a heightened risk of being drawn into conflicts at its borders that have the potential of turning nuclear, Gen. Nikolai Makarov, chief of the General Staff, said. (AP, 11.17.11.)
The Russian Defense Ministry does not intend to limit the number of contract servicemen by 425,000 and plans to continue replacing drafted soldiers with them, Makarov said. Russia has no conscript-age young men left to recruit, the general complained. Makarov said only 11.7 percent of young men aged 18-27 were eligible for the army service but 60 percent of them had health problems and could not be drafted under law. (Interfax, 11.17.11).
Two Yars missile battalions and four silo-based Topol-M missiles will be put on combat duty in Russia this year. (Interfax, 11.17.11).

Security and law-enforcement:

No significant developments.

Foreign affairs:

“This is all looking very much like a civil war,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said of Syria. During a visit to Moscow Syrian opposition leaders pressed Russia to join international calls for the resignation of President Bashar Assad on Tuesday. (Reuters, 11.16.11, 11.14.11).

Russia's neighbors:

Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan on Friday signed a decree to set up a joint body to oversee and regulate the economy and trade in the three nations, paving the way for an economic union of the three former Soviet republics. (AP, 11.16.11).
Former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says Georgian President Saakashvili alienated potential NATO allies by "letting the Russians provoke him" into starting a war over South Ossetia. (Eurasia.net, 11.15.11)
Georgia's breakaway South Ossetia region will choose a new leader in a runoff vote after results on Monday failed to show a decisive winner in a presidential election. (Reuters, 11.14.11).
Kazakhstan’s president issued a decree Wednesday to dissolve parliament and call a snap election that will end the governing party’s monopolistic grip over the legislature. (AP, 11.15.11).
The U.S. Peace Corps will pull out of Kazakhstan. (AP, 11.16.11).
Ukraine's parliament on Tuesday voted against a proposal to downgrade the abuse-of-power offence under which former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has been jailed, a move which could have led to her early release. Ukraine has also filed new criminal charges against Tymoshenko. (Reuters, AP, 11.15.11).
A new poll shows Moldovans are losing interest in the post-Soviet country's European integration and is warming up to the idea of joining a Commonwealth of Independent States' (CIS) free-trade zone led by Russia. (RFE/RL, 11.17.11).
Tajikistan's Migration Service says that the detention of Tajik citizens in Russia has increased in the past week amid a row with Moscow over the sentencing of two ethnic Russians for smuggling and other crimes. (RFE/RL, 11.16.11).