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Russia in Review

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Abstract

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for April 1-April 8, 2016

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security:

  • US President Barack Obama has warned of a persistent threat of terrorists getting their hands on nuclear materials. “There is no doubt that if these madmen ever got their hands on a nuclear bomb or nuclear material, they would certainly use it to kill as many people as possible,” he told a global nuclear security summit in Washington on April 1. . "It would change our world. . . . We cannot be complacent." Obama also rallied world leaders to confront the growing threat of the Islamic State. (Business Spectator – Online, 04.04.16, Washington Post, 04.03.16).
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said U.S. President Barack Obama had “personally” invited him to attend the nuclear summit held in Washington last week, but he declined over insufficient prominence offered to Russia at the event, and Moscow's complaints about implementation of the 2000 Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement. “We signed the appropriate pact and agreed that those materials would be destroyed in a certain manner — specifically, an industrial one –— which required building specialized facilities,” Putin said. “We fulfilled our obligations, we built that facility,” he said. “Our American partners did not.” (Moscow Times, 04.08.16).
  • The fourth and final nuclear security summit saw serious progress, according to Matthew Bunn of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center.  Enough states ratified the 2005 amendment to the physical protection convention to finally bring the amendment into force. Also China joined in the strengthening nuclear security implementation initiative, thereby committing to achieve the objectives of IAEA nuclear security recommendations. Additionally Japan and the United States removed hundreds of kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium from the Fast Critical Assembly in Japan. And, finally, states agreed to 18 new group commitments or “gift baskets,” on topics ranging from protecting against insider threats to replacing radiological sources with less dangerous technologies, according to Professor Bunn. (Nuclear Security Matters, 04.04.16).
  • At the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit Argentina and the United States announced that Argentina completed elimination of all highly-enriched uranium that remained in the country. (IPFM Blog, 04.01.16).
  • Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev said he believes U.S. leader Barack Obama's initiative to hold the Nuclear Security Summit should be continued ."I suppose that Kazakhstan has the moral right to hold such an event in the future,” he said. “The increasing sophistication of trans-national terror organizations and emerging regional conflicts pose new challenges that must be considered,” Nazarbayev wrote in an op-ed. (The Hill, 04.04.16, Kazwire, 04.04.16).
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that Russia is creating a national guard on the basis of the Interior Ministry's troops, which guard Russia’s civilian nuclear facilities among other things. The guard will also take over the Interior Ministry's police commando units. The new agency’s personnel  will number 350,000-400,000 and it will report directly to the president. As part of the reform Russia's drug enforcement agency and federal migration service would be now subordinate to the interior ministry.  (RFE/RL, Gazeta.ru, Belfer Center, 04.05.16.)
  • NNSA has released a report, entitled “Prevent, Counter, and Respond—A Strategic Plan to Reduce Global Nuclear Threats FY 2017–FY 2021” which notes Russia has curtailed many aspects of bilateral nuclear security cooperation with the United States. The remaining work in Russia focuses on nuclear and radiological security capacity-building activities such as training and technical exchanges, as well as limited equipment procurement and upgrade activities. NNSA also continues limited activities 16 Russian nuclear sites and maintains cooperation with Russia’s Federal Service for Environmental, Industrial, and Nuclear Supervision. NNSA also works with Russia outside the CTR and MNEPR frameworks on Russian-origin fuel returns from third countries. (NNSA/Belfer Center, 04.05.16).
  • The United Nations' atomic agency announced on Monday that it was sending equipment to Brazil to protect against terrorist attacks employing nuclear material during this year's Olympic and Paralympic Games. (Telegraph, 04.05.16).

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • The first shipment of S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran will be made within days, Zamir Kabulov, Special Representative of the Russian President for Afghanistan, told Interfax on April 5. (Interfax, 04.05.16).

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • NATO's secretary-general says the NATO-Russia Council will meet for the first time since 2014 within the next two weeks. NATO officials said the council last met in June 2014 (AP, 04.08.16).
  • U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump said: “NATO's not really set up for terrorism. NATO is set up for the Soviet Union more than anything else. And now you don't have the Soviet Union.” (Washington Post, 04.04.16).

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

  • U.S. President Barack Obama accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of slowing progress on nuclear arms reduction by focusing instead on building up Moscow's military might. In response to Obama's speech, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that "U.S.-Russian relations have deteriorated significantly due to the destructive actions of the U.S."  (RFE/RL, 04.02.16, Moscow Times, 04.05.16).
  • The U.S. government said that Russia has increased the number of strategic warheads deployed on ballistic missiles. The State Department figures showed that Russia had nearly 200 more warheads deployed now, as compared to 2011, when the treaty known as New START went into force.(RFE/RL, 04.03.16).
  • U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump said: “I would love to see a nuclear-free world. Will that happen? Chances are extremely small that will happen. Look, Russia right now is spending a tremendous amount of money on re-doing their entire nuclear arsenal.” (Washington Post, 04.04.16).

Counter-terrorism:

  • The Russian Federal Security Service has uncovered a group allegedly linked to the Islamic State terrorist organization that was plotting a terrorist attack in the city of Volgograd.  Also a man detained by Russian authorities in July for allegedly trying to join the Islamic State militant group in Syria has been identified as an ethnic Armenian from Kazakhstan. (RFE/RL, 04.08.16, Sputnik, 04.08.16).

Cyber security:

  • No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can reach an agreement to freeze oil production, even if Iran doesn’t join in, Kuwaiti OPEC governor Nawal al-Fezaia told Bloomberg News. Fezaia said oil-producing countries have no alternative but to reach an agreement to freeze output when they meet on April 17 in Doha, Qatar, because prices are too low.(RFE/RL, 04.07.16)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

  • A five-strong delegation of members of the U.S. House of Representatives visited Moscow on April 2nd to meet Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, chairman of the Russian Senate’s international committee Konstantin Kosachev. The U.S. delegation, which included Brian Higgins, David Cicilline,  Dana Rohrabacher, and Juan Vargas, also attended an event organized by the Valdai Club. The U.S. Congressmen and their Russian hosts discussed Ukraine, Syria, NATO-Russian relations and U.S.-Russian relations. Russian and U.S. parliamentarians can hold “full-scale meeting” in June-July, according to Kosachev. (Belfer Center, 04.04.16).
  • U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump said: “He (Vladimir Putin) said, Trump is brilliant and Trump is going to be the new leader and all that. And some of these clowns said, you should repudiate Putin. I said, why would I repudiate him? … And I say to myself — and I say to people — wouldn't it be nice if we actually could get along with Russia? And if we could get along with these people?... I feel that I will get along well with Putin.”  (Washington Post, 04.04.16).
  • An American student who went missing in freezing conditions in a mountainous part of Siberia, in Russia, has been found dead. Preliminary assessments said Colin Madsen might have frozen to death.(RFE/RL, 04.04.16).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

  • The removal of economic penalties on Russia would increase investment and boost consumer confidence and demand, according to the World Bank. Still, it says the benefits would wear off after next year, with growth predicted at 1.7 percent in 2018 if sanctions are lifted early. That compares with 1.8 percent under the baseline scenario, according to the report. (Bloomberg, 04.06.16).
  • The World Bank says an estimated 3.1 million Russians have slipped below the poverty line as the country's economy.  The continued increase in poverty would return rates to their 2007 levels, the bank said, "undoing nearly a decade's worth of gains."(RFE/RL, 04.06.16)
  • Consumer-price growth eased in Russia to 7.3 percent from a year earlier in March, compared with 8.1 percent in February. (Bloomberg, 04.05.16).
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin poured scorn on allegations that he’s linked to $2 billion in offshore transactions involving people close to him that were disclosed in the so-called Panama Papers. It’s “rubbish” to say he’s linked to corrupt schemes and his name isn’t mentioned anywhere in the leaked files, Putin said. An international consortium of investigative reporters has earlier documented a vast network of shady money transfers used by close associates of Putin to funnel as much as $2 billion into offshore shell companies. “Putin, Russia, our country, our stability and the upcoming elections are the main target, specifically to destabilize the situation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said of the  report.  (Bloomberg, 04.07.16, RFE/RL, 04.04.16).

Defense and Aerospace:

  • Saudi Arabia replaced Russia last year as the country with the third-highest military spending in the world, a Swedish research institute has said. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated on April 5 that global military spending rose by 1 percent in 2015 to $1.67 trillion, the first worldwide increase since 2011. (RFE/RL, 04.05.16).
  • Russia could commence delivering the S-400 missile defense system to China by the end of the year, Sputnik News reported citing a high-ranking military source. (Interfax, 04.07.16).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • Lithuanian citizen Aristidas Tamosaitis has been given a 12-year prison sentence by a Russian court which found him guilty of espionage. (Moscow Times, 04.05.16).
  • Russian police have arrested a suspect in the killing of independent journalist Dmitry Tsilikin. (RFE/RL, 04.07.16)

Foreign affairs and trade:

  • Syria:
    • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Oleg Syromolotov said military officials of the U.S. and Russia are discussing “concrete aspects” of possible coordination to liberate Raqqa. A U.S. military official said it isn’t really feasible now to have coordination as the U.S.-led coalition and Russia operate separately. However, things may change given the recent evolution in the Russian approach, the official said. Earlier U.S. has rebuffed a Russian invitation to join its efforts to clear Palmyra of land mines, which would have involved U.S. deployments to Syrian-held territory, U.S.-based risk consultancy Stratfor reported March 30. (Bloomberg, 04.06.16).
    • Russia and the U.S. are working on drafting a new constitution for Syria, according to Western and Russian diplomats. The joint efforts are at an early stage, and Russia’s current proposals are closer to the Syrian government’s position, said one Western diplomat. The two countries are continuing to exchange ideas, a Russian diplomat said. (Bloomberg, 04.07.16).
    • Russia's Defense Ministry says its military aircraft have hit positions of the Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Nusra Front near the Syrian city of Aleppo. As a result, the ministry said, an attempted offensive by the Islamist militants was thwarted. (RFE/RL, 04.06.16).
    • Russian armed forces in Syria have tested a new generation military high-speed internet and communications system. (Tass, 04.07.16).
    • A midair confrontation took place over the southern Syrian border between Russian fighters and Israeli and Jordanian F-16s.The incident was described by King Abdullah of Jordan in a candid debriefing, which he gave to top US members of Congress on 11 January in Washington.  The Russian planes were on a mission to survey Israeli defenses on the Syrian border. (Middle East Eye, 03.25.16).
    • U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump said: “Some people — for instance, when (Vladimir) Putin came out and he wanted to bomb the hell out of ISIS, we had people standing on the stage, we don't want that, we want. . . . Let me tell you something. If we have somebody else dropping bombs that cost a half a million dollars a piece on the top — if we have somebody helping us, that's not so bad.” (Washington Post, 04.04.16).
    • Russian bomb disposal experts in Syria have begun demining roads leading to the historical part of Palmyra; over 120 explosive devices have already been made safe. (Interfax, 04.04.16).
    • The head of Russia's renowned Hermitage art museum has submitted a proposal to Russian President Vladimir Putin to get involved in the restoration of the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra (RFE/RL, 04.08.16).
    • Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov announced that he intends to visit Syria at the invitation of Syrian President Bashar Assad. (Moscow Times, 02.04.16).
  • Other countries:
    • Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may travel to Russia in May to meet with President Vladimir Putin, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. (Bloomberg, 04.06.16).
    • Austria believes that the EU should consider lifting anti-Russian sanctions, Austrian President Heinz Fischer told Russian State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin in a meeting on Wednesday. (Moscow Times, 04.06.16).
    • Rosatom, Russia's state nuclear corporation has opened an office in Dubai that will become its headquarters for the Middle East and North Africa. Rosatom has also opened a regional office in Beijing (RBTH, 04.06.16, Interfax, 04.08.16).
    • China has come forward with an initiative to transfer production facilities in 12 industries, including chemical and metallurgy, to the Russian Far East. (Tass, 04.07.16).

Russia's neighbors:

  • Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan
    • Heavy fighting broke out April 2 between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in the worst escalation of hostilities since the 1994 ceasefire. According to the Armenian side’s version of events, the hostilities began when an Azerbaijani sabotage group tried to infiltrate the unrecognized republic on the night of April 1-2 but got trapped, prompting Azerbaijani commanders to try to rescue the unit; escalation ensued. According to Baku’s version of events, as reported in the press, the hostilities erupted because Armenian forces began firing at Azerbaijani forces and settlements along the line of contact (LOC). The fighting was mostly concentrated along the eastern part of the LOC in Karabakh, but the sides reportedly exchanged fire as far north as Tavush, on an undisputed part of the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Both sides used tanks, artillery and multiple rocket launch systems. Moscow’s mediation ended the fighting on April 5 with Azerbaijan claiming to have gained territory. So far, however, the Armenian side has conceded to losing three heights with a total area of 300-400 square meters along the southwestern part of the LOC near the border with Iran. (Belfer Center, 04.08.16).
    • As of April 8, 38 Armenian servicemen have been reported killed, 21 are missing and 122 were wounded, while 11 civilians also died. Azerbaijan said 31 of its servicemen and four civilians died in the clashes. Four Azeri civilians have been killed and 17 wounded since the renewal of armed hostilities around the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region, Azerbaijan's prosecutor-general's office said. A Karabakh representative said on April 4th that four Armenian civilians had been killed. Online posts alleging to show images of beheaded Armenian soldiers and the abandoned bodies of a group of elderly residents have further inflamed tensions, sewing doubt the Karabakh  ceasefire will hold. In the village of Talish Azeri soldiers allegedly killed two civilian residents and then cut off their ears. (Guardian, Breitbart News, 04.07.16, Bloomberg, 04.07.16, Vzglyad.ru,04.06.16)
    • “The fact – that Azerbaijanis used weapons they have bought in Russia to the full extent of these weapons' power – had a large impact in Armenia," Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan told Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in Yerevan on Thursday. Russia will continue delivering weapons to Azerbaijan as its strategic partner under existing contracts, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said on Friday. In February 2016, Russian Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson Maria Zakharov stated that “our supplies of arms to Armenia or to the friendly Azerbaijan meticulously factor in the need to preserve the balance of forces in the region.”  (Tass, 04.08.16, Sputnik, 02.28.16, News.am, 04.07.16).
    • There’s no alternative to negotiations for ending the conflict over the Armenian-held enclave in Azerbaijan, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Friday at talks with President Ilham Aliyev in Baku. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Azeri President Ilham Aliyev that “we have proposals” for resolving the conflict when they met in Baku late Wednesday. The conflict is “close” to settlement and Russia will “do everything” to move the peace process forward, Lavrov said. Lavrov is meeting with Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian in Moscow on Friday and he’ll visit Armenia April 21-22. While fighting was still under way Russian President Vladimir Putin,  Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian Defense Minister Army Gen. Sergei Shoigu had telephone conversations with their Azeri and Armenian counterparts.  (Interfax, 04.02.16, Bloomberg, 04.07.16).
    • Armenia is seeking a “complete and final settlement” that could include the presence of peacekeepers between the two sides, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said in an interview with Deutsche Welle.  When fighting was still under way on Monday Sargsyan said his country “will recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh” if the violence increases. (Bloomberg, 04.05.16, Bloomberg, 04.07.16).
    • Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said in a televised meeting of top advisers on April 2 that  his troops had achieved a "great victory," while vowing to "observe the cease-fire and after that we will try to solve the conflict peacefully.” (RFE/RL, 04.04.16).
    • Azerbaijan’s main oil export pipeline runs at one point less than 30 miles from the conflict zone. (Financial Times, 04.06.16).
    • Peace talks won’t be complete without the participation of Nagorno-Karabakh’s officials, Bako Sahakyan, who’s president of the unrecognized Karabakh republic, said in the capital, Stepanakert. (Bloomberg, 04.07.16).
    • U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said via Twitter he had told Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev that "a comprehensive settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh is critical for their stability, security, prosperity." U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry condemned “in the strongest terms” the cease-fire violations while extending Washington’s condolences to all affected families. (RFE/RL, 04.05.16, RFE/RL, 04.02.16).
    • Germany plans to intensify efforts to resolve the Karabakh conflict. German diplomats said they want to execute a seven-point plan that will lead to formal peace talks on the future of Nagorno-Karabakh. The plan calls for establishing a crisis hotline between the two governments. It’s of “great importance that the conflict is resolved as quickly as possible,” and Germany will offer “constructive help,” Chancellor Angela Merkel said after talks with Serzh Sargsyan in Berlin on Wednesday. (Wall Street Journal, 04.07.16, Bloomberg, 04.07.16).
    • Iranian President Hassan Rohani has offered to mediate between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Ankara would back Azerbaijan, with which it has close cultural and linguistic ties, “to the end” against Armenia. (RFE/RL, 04.06.16, Financial Times, 04.03.16).
    • Video of what appears to be Israeli-made suicide drone Harop flying over the disputed area of Nagorno-Karabakh, where Azerbaijan and Armenia have clashed in recent days, surfaced Tuesday, in what could be one of the first instances of such a weapon being used in combat. (Washington Post, 04.05.16).
  • Ukraine:
    • The Dutch government says it may have to reconsider ratifying a treaty establishing closer European Union ties with Ukraine after a strong majority of voters rejected an Association Agreement in a nonbinding referendum. The preliminary results show that among those who voted, 61.1 percent rejected the pact with Ukraine and 38.1 percent supported it. The EU-Ukraine trade deal is actually “provisionally” in force across the bloc already. To reverse this would require the unanimous support of all 28 member states, something that is extremely unlikely to happen. (RFE/RL, Financial Times, 04.07.16)
    • Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has defended himself in the massive leak of records on offshore accounts that has named political officials, businesspeople, and celebrities from around the world. Poroshenko said that an offshore holding company set up for his candy business was a necessary step to put his assets into a blind trust when he became president in 2014. The Ukrainian State Fiscal Service will investigate information on possible financial irregularities involving Poroshenko. The head of Ukraine's populist Radical Party has called for an impeachment investigation into Poroshenko over the allegations (RFE/RL, 04.06.16, Moscow Times, 04.05.16).
    • The two-year-old conflict in eastern Ukraine has left about 1.5 million people hungry, including nearly 300,000 in need of immediate help, the World Food Program, the main anti-hunger humanitarian agency of the United Nations, said on Monday. (New York Times, 04.05.16).
    • According to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, "there is no military solution" either for the separatist-held Donbass region in eastern Ukraine, or the annexed peninsula of Crimea. (Moscow Times, 02.04.16).
    • In response to a New York Times editorial criticizing Ukraine's "unyielding corruption," President Petro Poroshenko said that spreading such damaging information was part of the hybrid war against Ukraine. “I want to be clear. Today there is a hybrid war against Ukraine, (and it is conducted also) through the mechanisms of spreading of information that is damaging for Ukraine,” Poroshenko said while in Washington. (Kyiv Post, 04.03.16).
    • Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk says he will introduce a ban on oil products from Russia. (RFE/RL, 04.06.16)
    • Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev denounced Ukraine as having "neither industry, nor a state," according to remarks published Monday on the Cabinet website. (Moscow Times, 04.05.16).
  • Other neighbors:
    • The leak of data from Mossack Fonseca, a Panamanian law firm specializing in offshore companies, implicates Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in the use of offshore companies to hide wealth outside the country. Other key political leaders from the former Soviet region could yet be implicated. One name to look for will be Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev, whose grandson Nurali Kazaliev's name appears in Mossack Fonseca records.  (RFE/RL, 04.04.16).
    • Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev met with United States Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz in Astana on Thursday, the president's press office said. A special focus was put on providing nuclear security, a common field of cooperation for both countries. (Interfax, 04.08.16).
    • KazAtomProm and ConverDyn have signed an agreement whereby the world's largest uranium producer and the "leading provider" of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) conversion services will jointly and immediately offer uranium in the form of natural UF6 to global utilities. UF6 is the natural uranium feedstock for the enrichment step in the nuclear fuel cycle. (World Nuclear News, 04.04.16).
    • Six imams in Tajikistan have been arrested on suspicion of being members of banned extremist groups. (RFE/RL, 04.05.16).
    • Legislation in Kyrgyzstan that bans the use of foreign currency in all domestic transactions has come into force. (RFE/RL, 04.06.16)
    • Leonid Tibilov, the leader of Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia, has backtracked on his proposal last fall to hold a referendum on the region's incorporation into the Russian Federation.  (RFE/RL, 04.06.16).

 

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