Russia In Review

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of October 14-21, 2011

I. U.S. and Russia priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

No significant developments.

Iran nuclear issues:

Russia fears a planned UN report which is expected to heighten suspicions about Iran's atomic aims will undermine Moscow's initiative to resolve the major powers' nuclear dispute with Tehran. (Reuters, 10.19.11).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to Afghanistan:

No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

No significant developments.

Missile defense:

U.S. Undersecretary of State Ellen Tauscher said the United States was prepared to offer Moscow written assurances that the system being built is not directed against Moscow. But Tauscher added: “We cannot provide legally binding commitments, nor can we agree to limitations on missile defense, which must necessarily keep pace with the evolution of the threat.'' The persistent refusal of the United States to give Russia legally binding guarantees may lead to a total failure of the project to establish a joint European missile defence system involving Russia, a military-diplomatic source in Moscow said. (Interfax, 10.21.11, Reuters, 10.18.11).
The United States has invited Russia to use its own radars and other sensors to size up one or more U.S. missile-defense flight tests as part of a new push to persuade Moscow that the system poses it no threat, Patrick O'Reilly, director of the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency said. "We are being invited to monitor the realization of a plan that we see as creating a risk to our forces of deterrence," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters when asked about the invitation. Russian Representative to NATO Dmitry Rogozin said: "What they suggest is that we send our representatives over there to take a look and see whether or not their missiles hit the designated targets. Who do they think we are, tourists?" (Reuters, 10.19.11, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 10.20.11).
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday emphasized that Russia and the United States should continue exchanging opinions on a planned missile shield in Europe. “We should continue exchanging opinions and realize that certain decisions must come next,” Medvedev said. (RIA Novosti, 10.20.11).
Moscow's uncompromising stand on missile defense is attributed to the fact that U.S. President Barack Obama needs some foreign political success to bolster his positions on the eve of the presidential election in his country. It is believed that he is even ready to come to Moscow before the end of the year and sign some sort of document. (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 10.20.11).
Russia could rekindle missile defense relations with the United States by proposing a shield to defend Earth from stray comets. The proposal envisages a global air, missile and space defense system capable of intercepting an array of objects, from military rockets to comets and asteroids on a collision course with Earth. The system is to be controlled by the United Nations. The new program, code-named "Strategic Earth Defense" and backed by Russia's envoy to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, won acclaim from President Dmitry Medvedev. (Moscow Times, 10.19.11).
Russia has denied news reports that the emergency relief center it is creating in Serbia will be used to spy on neighboring Romania, where U.S. anti-ballistic missile interceptors are likely to be installed. (AP, 10.17.11).
Romania's government has approved a draft law that permits the building of an anti-ballistic interceptor site in the country as part of a U.S. missile shield. (AP, 10.18.11).

Nuclear arms control:

Gen. Robert Kehler, the top U.S. strategic combat commander, said on Tuesday that the nation someday might move from its longstanding triad of nuclear-armed ICBMs, submarines and bombers to a two-pronged "dyad." (GSN, 10.18.11).

Energy exports from CIS:

Turkmenistan lashed out Wednesday at what it says is a Russian attempt to stymie the creation of a natural gas supply route to Europe. The Turkmen statement followed last week's warning from Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev, who said that the trans-Caspian pipeline should not go ahead without the approval of all five coastal countries. Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov announced late last week that his country was getting down to business on building the Nabucco pipeline. (AP, 10.19.11, Reuters, 10.17.11).
Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said he expects the 2009 gas contract between Russia and Ukraine to be revised "within a few days." (Bloomberg, 10.20.11).

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

In a letter to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk, Senators Roy Blunt and James Inhofe urged the Obama administration not to sacrifice Georgia's security and sovereignty concerns in Washington's effort to help Moscow join the World Trade Organization. (Reuters, 10.20.11).
Russia and Georgia failed on Thursday to come to an agreement that would pave the way for Russia to join the World Trade Organisation, but the two sides will hold further talks next week. Even with Georgia still opposed to Russia's WTO accession, it may still become a member through a vote sooner than many expect, the head of Russia's WTO delegation, Maksim Medvedkov said. He said he could not rule out a WTO vote on Russia's membership. (RT, Reuters, 10.20.11).
Russia will live on even if the World Trade Organization rejects its membership bid, President Dmitry Medvedev said on Wednesday. (RIA Novosti, 10.19.11).
Founder of the Congressional Russia Caucus, U.S. Rep. Gregory Meeks, said: “I look forward to facilitating business-to-business contacts, and possibly I am looking to lead trade missions of U.S. companies over to Russia and vice-versa.”(Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 10.19.11).
Leonid Boguslavsky, the investor behind some of Russia’s best-known internet success stories, including Yandex and Ozon, is launching a $100m venture-capital fund in the US. (Financial Times, 10.17.11).

Other bilateral issues:

The U.S.-Russian "reset" has yielded no meaningful progress on human rights, and the United States needs to "redouble" its efforts to press Russia on the issue, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Michael Posner said after meeting with environmental activists outside Moscow. (Moscow Times, 10.17.11).
Vladimir Churov, chairman of Russia’s Central Elections Commission, said he has been "honored" to be included in the "Magnitsky list" of Russian officials blacklisted for U.S. entry over human rights violations. (Moscow Times, 10.20.11).
According to findings of a nation-wide poll conducted by the Levada Centre in September, some 67 per cent of respondents have a positive attitude toward the EU and 61 per cent toward the U.S. (Interfax, 10.17.11).
An extra year of buying rides for astronauts to the International Space Station will cost the United States $450 million, NASA's deputy administrator said. (Reuters, 10.20.11).
Prosecutors have presented to a New York jury evidence they say shows ex-Soviet officer Viktor Bout researched an anti-American rebel group before being arrested on charges he agreed to sell it weapons. (AP, 10.17.11).

II. Russia news.

Domestic Politics, Economy and Energy:

Vladimir Putin signaled in an interview on Monday that Dmitry Medvedev's legitimacy to lead the government could be affected by how well the United Russia party fares in a parliamentary election on December 4. Medvedev is top of the party's list of election candidates so its performance will reflect on him personally. (Reuters, 10.18.11).
The upcoming parliamentary elections in Russia could see the ruling United Russia party lose its two-thirds majority in the State Duma, according to Russia’s leading polling agency VTsIOM. (RIA Novosti, 10.19.11).
President Dmitry Medvedev has promised to expand the Cabinet and to "seriously reconstruct" United Russia as prime minister next year. He also promised the ruling United Russia party would play fair in a December parliamentary election and said the resource-reliant nation cannot modernise its economy without support from abroad. (AP, 10.15.11, Moscow Times, 10.17.11, Reuters, 10.19.11).
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin defended plans to bolster social spending on Monday, telling global corporate chiefs that it would help stave off the type of protests that occurred in the United States and Europe over the weekend. (Reuters, 10.17.11).
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin confronted criticism over his decision to seek a return to the presidency next year, warning in a television interview shown of a return to the volatility of previous decades should Russia swerve from its current course. (New York Times, 10.17.11).
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s move to return as president “could cause protest and unrest,” Russian steelmaker Evraz Group SA warned in a prospectus. (Wall Street Journal, 10.20.11).
President Dmitry Medvedev on Monday approved a delicate reform of the Federation Council that makes it easier for senators to keep their posts during changes in regional leaderships. (Moscow Times, 10.18.11).
Russia must learn from its past and avoid plunging into the stagnation that set the stage for the collapse of the Soviet Union, President Dmitry Medvedev said. (AP, 10.19.11).
Siemens will spend $1.37 billion on projects in Russia over the next three years. (Moscow Times, 10.18.11).
The Russian government has adopted a new program aimed at involving Russian immigrants in the modernization processes in Russia. According to federal statistics, more than 300,000 Russians leave the country to work abroad and about 40,000 emigrate every year. (RIA Novosti, 10.18.11).
Russia's rank in the World Bank's Doing Business report has improved this year from 124th to 120^th. (Business New Europe, 10.20.11).
Transparency at Russia's state nuclear energy concern Rosatom has improved over the past year, but much remains to be done at the behemoth, Transparency International said on Friday. A year ago, TI said Rosatom was a "state within a state" that conducted rigged auctions and overpaid for contracts that could have been struck at a lower and more competitive price. Head of Rosatom Sergei Kiriyenko said on Thursday he was resolute to continue the fight against corruption in the industry regardless of major reputation risks the state corporation might face. (Itar-Tass, AFP, 10.21.11).
Prosecutors blamed human error for two failed space launches in August, including the loss of a supply ship to the International Space Station. (Bloomberg, 10.19.11).

Defense:

The missile brigade of the Western Military District has become the first unit of the Russian Armed Forces to fully switch to Iskander tactical missile systems. (Interfax, 10.20.11).

Security and law-enforcement:

A Moscow jury has convicted a man in the killing of a Slavic soccer fan during a fight last year. Anger over the killing of Yegor Sviridov on Dec. 6 inflamed ethnic tensions in Moscow and led to riots outside the Kremlin several days later. (AP, 10.20.11).

Foreign affairs:

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warned that Russia will defend its interests staunchly but that the country does not seek to be a "superpower" or a "world policeman." In foreign policy as well, Russia "must feel confident and always see where our national interests are," he said. "To be independent and to safeguard our sovereignty we need both an economy that is developing effectively and a stable political system," Putin said. (Interfax, 10.17.11).
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has signed an order on Russia's accession to the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). (Interfax, 10.21.11).
President Dmitry Medvedev expressed hopes for peace and a democratic government in Libya as the African country’s new leaders declared Muammar Gaddafi dead. (Moscow Times, 10.21.11).
A Russian Soyuz rocket blasted off from French Guiana on Friday bearing the first two satellites in Europe's Galileo global positioning system, a much-heralded mission that will redraw commercial competition in space. (Reuters, 10.21.11).
President Dmitry Medvedev and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte oversaw the signing of a $1 billion deal in Moscow on Thursday that sees oligarch-owned Summa Group take a controlling stake in a consortium to build a new oil facility in the port of Rotterdam. (Moscow Times, 10.21.11).
Russia, the United States and European countries ignored fears over human rights abuses and sold large numbers of weapons to governments in the Middle East and North Africa in recent years, Amnesty International said in a report on Wednesday. (Reuters, 10.18.11).
Ekaterina Zatuliveter, an accused Russian spy who worked as an assistant for a British lawmaker, went to court Tuesday in a bid to block her deportation — telling judges that she had a four-year affair with her boss but was not a secret agent. (Reuters, 10.18.11).

Russia's neighbors:

Russia and most of its CIS partners have signed an agreement committing to creating a free trade zone during Tuesday’s meeting of the Commonwealth in St. Petersburg. Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, and Tajikistan signed for membership which is designed to reduce all trade fees on a number of goods between the countries – and some expect the rules to come into force next year. (RT, 10.19.11).
Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan have announced that they are prepared to admit a fourth member to their CIS Customs Union -- Kyrgyzstan. (RFE/RL, 10.19.11).
The U.S. and Turkey want to obtain the status of partners of the Shanghai Security Organization. Ankara can count on receiving new status within the SCO as soon as 2012. The U.S., meanwhile, will most likely not be allowed to join the organization due to objections from a number of Central Asian countries. (Kommersant, 10.21.11).
The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will mediate bilateral disputes between its member countries on the questions of borders, hydropower and transport, CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha said. (Interfax, 10.17.11).
A U.S. warship arrived Monday in Georgia's Black Sea port of Batumi for exercises with the country's coast guard, the US embassy said, in the latest of a series of such calls which have angered Russia. (AFP, 10.18.11).
Georgian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili says he will win next year's parliamentary election and is ready to repair ties with Russia. Georgian police seized $2 million and 1 million euros from Ivanishvili's Cartu Bank on suspicion of money laundering. (Reuters, 10.17.11, 10.21.11).
The European Union on Tuesday delayed a key visit by the Ukrainian president after signals that the country's jailed former prime minister, opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, will not be released soon. (AP, 10.18.11).
The European Union's trade chief said on Thursday he had concluded negotiations on a trade pact with Ukraine but it was now up to Kiev to create the political conditions to allow it to be put into practice. (Reuters, 10.20.11).
Azerbaijan is seeking an invitation to the next summit on nuclear security, which will be held in Seoul in March 2012. (Trend, 10.18.11).
Anatoly Kaminsky, the man Russia is backing as the next head of Moldova's separatist region of Transdniestria, promised not to retreat from a commitment to independence and a long-term aim of union with Russia. (Reuters, 10.19.11).
Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian told U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller that Yerevan will continue to abide by the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty despite its being "violated" by Azerbaijan. (RFE/RL, 10.19.11).
Hundreds of people protested outside Latvia's parliament on Monday after a major party which traditionally represents the interests of the Russian-speaking minority was excluded last week from talks to form a coalition government. (Reuters, 10.17.11).