Russia in Review

An update from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of June 10 - June 17, 2011.

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of June 10-17, 2011

1. I. U.S. and Russia priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

• No significant developments.

Iran nuclear issues:

• Russia urged Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Wednesday to be "more constructive" when dealing with global powers on nuclear issues, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after the leaders of the two countries met in the Kazakh capital of Astana. "We heard a reassurance from the Iranian president that additional steps will be made to ensure greater transparency of the Iranian nuclear program as part of contacts between Tehran and the IAEA," Lavrov added."The Iranian president has once again declared unequivocally that he has no intention of possessing a nuclear weapon," according to the Kremlin's top diplomat. (Reuters, 06.15.11, GSN, 06.16.11).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to Afghanistan:

• The Russian army is not planning to apply NATO standards for arms and military hardware, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov told journalists at the State Duma. (Interfax, 06.15.11).
• A suggestion by NATO's secretary general that Russia should avoid improving its nuclear weapons arsenal drew a sharp response from the Kremlin on Thursday, with Russia’s envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin declaring Moscow would build whatever missiles it liked. (Trend, 06.16.11).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• President Obama recently rejected a proposed missile-defense agreement with Russia that was developed by the State Department with the hope of coaxing Moscow into cooperation on countering Iranian missile threats. The draft deal had been developed prior to the Group of Eight summit last month, where it was hoped the agreement would be signed by Mr. Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. The White House, however, decided against signing the pact amid concerns that the agreement would limit U.S. missile defenses. The White House balked on the agreement because of two other parts. One involved a written assurance that treaty lawyers rejected as something Moscow could consider legally binding: a statement saying the Pentagon would not point missile-defense interceptors deployed in Europe at Russia. A second provision that scuttled the deal involved language in the draft agreement that could be considered as limits on the numbers and capabilities of U.S. missile defenses. (Washington Times, 06.17.11).
• “Political guarantees are not enough for us. We do not want to be dependent on political changes in any particular country, we want legally binding guarantees," said Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov."The U.S. says it does not want to give any legally binding agreements, that the Congress will not pass this," Antonov said. (Interfax, 06.14.11).
• Russia won the backing of China and other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)  in criticising U.S. plans for a missile shield, saying on Wednesday it could undermine global security. "The unilateral and unlimited build-up of missile defence by a single state or by a narrow group of states could damage strategic stability and international security," the six members of the SCO said in the declaration adopted  in the Kazakh capital. (Reuters, 06.15.11).
• "When they say ‘NATO's missile-defense system,’ this is nonsense. There is a European segment of the U.S. national missile-defense system, a gift to NATO countries, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said on Tuesday. (Interfax, 06.15.11).
• Iranian missiles cannot pose a threat to Europe, said Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov. "Why should Iran launch a missile upon Berlin or Rome? Iran's policy, as far as how it is declared by the Iranian leadership, is development of relations with European countries. I cannot say that Iran is a threat," Antonov said. The prospects of military-technical cooperation between Russia and Iran are unconnected with the progress of Russian-US talks on missile defence, he said. (Interfax, 06.14.11).
• "A development projection for missile armaments in Iran shows that it is quite possible that in a while Iranian missiles will be able to achieve a range of more than 3,000 kilometers," Maj. Gen. Vladimir Dvorkin, a former head of a Defense Ministry research institute, told a news conference in Stockholm."It is by that time that the missile defense must be deployed. It would be wrong to wait for a threat to emerge and then deploy the missile defense," the general said. (Interfax, 06.14.11).

Nuclear arms control:

• A U.S. Air Force plan to refurbish aging nuclear bombs deployed in five European countries would increase the weapon's power and accuracy, and it risks alarming Russia, Federation of American Scientists says. (Bloomberg, 06.14.11).

Energy exports from CIS:

• Gazprom has applied to have the start-up date for production at the Shtokman field in the Barents Sea moved one-two years, to 2017-2018.  (Barents News Observer, 06.17.11).

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

• No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

• The latest session of a high-ranking U.S.-Russia dialogue on human rights included frank exchanges on press freedom and corruption, according to Michael McFaul, senior director of Russian and Eurasian affairs on the U.S. president's National Security Council who participated in the talks. Participants discussed the case of Sergei Magnitsky, a Russian corporate lawyer who died in prison after being denied medical assistance in 2009. Magnitsky was employed by Hermitage Capital Management, a global investment company that accuses Russian police and tax officials of colluding to steal its assets. McFaul's remarks come at a moment when Congress has tabled draft legislation that would impose sanctions on 60 Russian officials implicated in involvement in the Magnitsky case. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev fired Alexei Anichin, a deputy interior minister allegedly linked to the death of Magnitsky. (RFE/RL, 06.15.11, Bloomberg, 06.11.11).
• U.S. officials have said a foreign spy agency was responsible for the most significant breach of U.S. military networks ever, which occurred when an infected flash drive was inserted into a U.S. military laptop at a base in the Middle East. Reuters has learned that experts inside and outside of the U.S. government strongly suspect that the original attack was crafted by Russian intelligence. (Reuters, 06.17.11).

1. II. Russia news.

Domestic Politics, Economy and Energy:

• In a speech at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum on Friday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev condemned the government’s heavy hand in the economy and the centralization of power at the Kremlin. Medvedev warned that Russia could face a period of stagnation and must avoid one-man rule. Medvedev said the government must revise its "too modest" privatisation plans by Aug. 1 and, cautioning against the domination of state companies, said state officials should leave the boards of state companies by the autumn. Medvedev said Russia must tackle corruption and must have effective governance. Medvedev announced plans on Friday to set up a working group to prepare proposals for the decentralization of power in the country.  (AP, Reuters, RIA Novosti,  06.17.11).
• Russia’s economy is recovering, but remains well below the level it was before the global financial crisis, says Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, addressing a U.N. labor meeting in Geneva on Wednesday. He added that the economy — the world’s sixth-largest — would reach pre-crisis levels by 2012, eventually rising to become one of the world’s top five.(AP, 06.15.11).
• Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is likely to announce this autumn whether he will seek a second term in a March 2012 election, his top adviser Arkady Dvorkovich said on Friday. "If nothing out of the ordinary takes place, one should not expect this statement before autumn," he said. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is unlikely to challenge Medvedev in next year's presidential election, said adviser to the president Igor Yurgens.  (Bloomberg, 06.17.11, Reuters, 06.17.11).
• Industrial production slowed for a fourth month, growing in May at the weakest pace since output began expanding in November 2009.  Output at factories, mines and utilities rose an annual 4.1 percent after a 4.5 percent increase in April, the State Statistics Service in Moscow said . (Bloomberg, 06.17.11).
• Russia has dashed hopes that the 2008-2009 economic crisis would spur needed economic reforms aimed at modernising the economy, a mission from the International Monetary Fund has concluded. The fund has counselled Russian officials on the need to reduce the non-oil budget deficit from its current level of 11 per cent of gross domestic product to 4.7 per cent and increase interest rates to head off rising inflation. (Financial Times, 06.15.11).
• Russians paid at least 164 billion rubles ($5.9 billion) in bribes last year to buy off teachers, traffic policemen and others in "everyday" situations, almost double the level in 2001, the Economy Ministry said. The overall "market" for bribes, excluding corruption and kickbacks related to business, reached 129 billion rubles in 2005 from 84.8 billion rubles in 2001, Deputy Economy Minister Oleg Fomichev told reporters in Moscow today. In 2010 the police received a total of 16.211 billion rubles ($580 million) in bribes, a more than tenfold increase on 2005. The average bribe paid also rose dramatically.(Bloomberg,  Moskovsky Komsomolets, 06.14.11).
• Ever more Russians want to leave their country and move abroad for permanent residence. Moreover, the younger the age group, the greater share of it wishes to leave forever. One-fifth of Russians are potential emigrants, according to sociologists. Thoughts of seeking good fortune elsewhere most often visit young, educated and active people. According to experts at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations under the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), over the past three years more than 1.2 million have left Russia, 40% of them - people with higher education. (Itar-Tass, 06.15.11).
• According to Russian polling firm the Levada Center, the percentage of Russians who get political news from the internet rose from 13% in 2007 to 31% in 2011. (Wall Street Journal, 06.16.11).
• Russia could face mass street protests within five years if the government does not change its economic policies and carry out democratic reforms, former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov said. (Reuters, 06.13.11).

Defense:

• The preparations of the contract for the purchase of Mistral helicopter carriers for the Russian Navy from France are at the final stage, the Rosoboronexport press service reported on Tuesday. (Interfax, 06.14.11).

Security and law-enforcement:

• In its statement on al-Qaeda governing shura (council) choosing Ayman al-Zawahiri, Bin Laden’s deputy, as his successor , the shura mentioned Chechnya in part of a lengthy list of others.“We also assure our mujahideen brothers…; in Chechnya of patience and insistence, that we are continuing in the covenant and in the methodology with a strong structure, aligned ranks, united word, familiar hearts and pure banner, fighting one enemy,” the statement said. (In Moscow’s Shadows, 06.16.11).
• Two leaders of a neo-Nazi gang were sentenced Tuesday to life in jail for a rash of hate killings that terrorized minorities in Russia’s second-largest city. (AP, 06.14.11).
• A Moscow court on Tuesday acquitted Russian activist Oleg Orlov who was charged with defaming Chechnya's Kremlin-backed leader by holding him responsible for the murder of a fellow campaigner. (Reuters, 06.14.11).

Foreign affairs:

• Visiting Chinese President Hu Jintao and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, issued a joint statement on a broad range of key international issues:
  • Issues concerning the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their carriers should be settled by political and diplomatic means, following the established principles of international law.
  • Both sides will stick to the principle of political and diplomatic settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue, under which Iran's rights to the peaceful use of nuclear energy would be ensured and at the same time confidence of the international community over the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program would be restored.
  • The two sides agree that the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula could only be resolved within the framework of the six-party talks.
  • Regarding the construction of a nuclear-free world as a lofty goal, China and Russia agree to attain the goal on the condition that strategic stability is preserved and the security of all countries is not undermined, said the statement.
  • China and Russia believe that threats and challenges posed by missiles should first be handled through political and diplomatic means.
  • Security of outer space should be guaranteed.
  • The situation in West Asia and North Africa should be resolved through political dialogue.
  • China and Russia support national reconciliation and reconstruction in Afghanistan, and the transfer of power to the Afghan government.
  • The Chinese side reiterates its support for Russia's efforts to promote peace and stability in South Caucasus and Commonwealth of the Independent States (CIS).
  • China-Russia strategic partnership is an important factor for peace, stability and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region.
  • China welcomes Russia's proposal to host the G20 summit in 2013 and supports its drive to join the World Trade Organization by the end of 2011.

(Xinhua, 06.16.11).

• Russia and China on Thursday postponed the signing of a major deal to supply Siberian natural gas to energy-hungry coastal China after they failed to agree on a price. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced the delay after his talks with China’s President Hu Jintao in the Kremlin. (AP, 06.16.11).
• Russian envoy's trip to the Libyan capital Thursday yielded no major breakthroughs amid escalating international efforts to end the four-month-long crisis in Libya. Both Mikhail Margelov, Russia's special envoy to Africa, and Libyan Prime Minister Baghdadi Ali Mahmudi said the major issue — the future of Moammar Kadafi — remained unresolved. Kadafi "is not prepared to go," Margelov said. (LA Times, 06.16.11).
• NATO risks sliding into a ground war in Libya and is trying to kill its leader, Muammar Gaddafi, Russia's ambassador to the alliance Dmitry Rogozin said on Wednesday. (Reuters, 06.15.11).
• Russia and China snubbed UN Security Council talks on Saturday convened to discuss a draft resolution that would condemn Syria's bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protesters, UN diplomats said. (Reuters, 06.14.11).
• Russia joined other permanent U.N. Security Council members on Thursday in publicly backing U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon for a second term. (Reuters, 06.16.11).
• The European Union protested Wednesday against Russia maintaining a broad ban on European-grown vegetables despite the identification of sprouts as the cause of a deadly E.coli outbreak. (AP, 06.15.11).

Russia's neighbors:

• In an address to fellow heads of state at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called Wednesday for a security alliance of several former Soviet nations and China to form a united front against the West. (AP, 06.15.11).
• China and Kazakhstan have signed a strategic partnership agreement and vowed to double their trade in the next four years. The deal was signed on June 13 in the Kazakh capital Astana as Chinese President Hu Jintao held talks with Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev. (RFE/RL, 06.14.11).
• The United States, the Netherlands and Kazakhstan last week conducted a training workshop that focused on the detection, accounting and transit of radioactive materials inside the Central Asian state, the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration announced. (GSN, 06.14.11).
• Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian said Armenia and Azerbaijan could soon reach a framework agreement on their lingering dispute over the breakaway Azerbaijani region of Nagorno-Karabakh, but he said any deal would have to be approved by Karabakh's ethnic Armenian leadership.  (RFE/RL, 06.15.11).
• U.S. Senator John McCain said during a visit to Chisinau that Washington supports calls for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Moldova's breakaway Transdniester region. (RFE/RL, 06.13.11).