Russia in Review

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of February 25 – March 4, 2011

I. U.S. and Russia priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

The Russian government has approved the protocol to the U.S.-Russian Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement and resolved to pass a bill on its ratification to the State Duma for consideration. (RIA Novosti via BBC, 02.03.11).
President Dmitry Medvedev has issued a decree to fire deputy head of the defense ministry's 12th Main Directorate Lt. Gen. Vladimir Chainikov. (Interfax-AVN, 03.02.11).
"I ... remain concerned over the dangers of terrorist attacks on power reactors and terrorist groups’ acquisition of fissile material," former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev wrote in a commentary published by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. “We especially must pay attention to keeping weapons and materials of mass destruction -- in this case, nuclear weapons-grade materials such as high-enriched uranium and plutonium -- out of the hands of terrorists and rogue nations,” he wrote. (Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 03.01.11).
"Proliferation of nuclear weapons along with the risk of its acquisition and use by terrorist organizations remains one of the most serious threats," Kazakh Senate speaker Kasym-Jomart Tokayev said at a meeting of the OSCE PA Committee on Political Affairs and Security in Vienna on Thursday. (Kazwir, 02.28.11).

Iran nuclear issues:

Russia’s state nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, which is building the reactor in Bushehr, Iran, said it found damage to one of the reactor’s four main cooling pumps. That breakdown, it said, necessitated removal of the fuel core and an inspection of the reactor and its fuel assemblies to make sure they harbored no metal particles or chips. (New York Timers, 02.28.11).
International sanctions on Iran could be eased if Tehran makes "real positive steps" to meet concerns about its nuclear program, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. (Reuters, 03.01.11).
Russian and Iranian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ali Akbar Salehi met in Geneva on Monday to discuss prospects for resolving the Iranian nuclear issue. "The Russian side stressed that a politico-diplomatic solution to the problem has no alternative," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. (Interfax, 02.28.11).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to Afghanistan:

Kyrgyzstan's parliament has postponed a vote to tax aviation fuel to a U.S. air base supporting operations in Afghanistan. Deputy Azamat Arapbayev said Thursday that a bill on the levy needs further scrutiny before the parliament can vote on it next week. U.S. officials have rejected the proposal to place a $100 duty on every ton of fuel sold to the base. (AP, 02.04.11).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

No significant developments

Missile defense:

A formal agreement guaranteeing that NATO and Russian missile defense systems are not directed against each other is the key to cooperation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Moscow's stance on European missile defense is that NATO defends the territory of NATO member states while Russia defends its own territory, Lavrov said. "NATO's [control] button will always be the U.S. button. The same goes for our button: We will have sole control of our button," the Russian minister said. (RIA Novosti, 03.02.11).
The U.S. is sending a special radar-equipped warship to the Mediterranean Sea next week, the first step in the development of a broad anti-ballistic missile system to protect Europe against a potential Iranian nuclear threat. (AP, 03.01.11).
Western diplomats point out that there are some parameters in the Russian offer on missile defense cooperation that the Alliance will never put up with. "First and foremost, what Moscow suggested stipulates absolute equality i.e. Russia in the project will have the status equaling that of NATO countries. That's plain impossible," said a source within NATO HQ. Sources in European NATO countries add that the sectoral ABM defense Russia suggested stipulates Russian responsibility for the northwestern sector i.e. for the airspace above Poland, the Baltic states, and Scandinavia. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland would not even hear of it, according to these sources. (Kommersant, 02.03.11).
"The first three phases of the (U.S. missile defense) plan pose no threats to the Russian security. It is the last one that will have the potential to compromise the Russian deterrence posture," said PIR-Center expert Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yevgeny Buzhinsky. (Kommersant, 02.03.11).
NATO's plans for a European missile shield might encompass Ukrainian radar facilities, Ukraine’s former Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko said. (GSN, 02.28.11).
An advanced model of the Patriot Advanced Capability 3 interceptor successfully eliminated a simulated short-range ballistic missile threat during an intercept test yesterday at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. (GSN, 03.02.11).

Nuclear arms control:

Speaking at international Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has hardened the country’s position on tactical nuclear weapons. Lavrov said on tactical nuclear weapons that “the first step in solving this problem should be withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons to the territory of a state that owns it and liquidation of all the infrastructure that allows deployment of these weapons abroad.” The withdrawal condition is not new, of course, but infrastructure has never been mentioned that explicitly before. (Russian strategic nuclear forces blog, 03.01.11).
All nuclear powers should reduce their atomic arsenals in keeping with Russian and U.S. efforts to that end and all governments that are not yet Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty signatories need to join the agreement, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the international Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. He also called on the international community to expedite establishment of a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East. The Kremlin's lead diplomat also called for consideration of a draft pact proposed by Russia and China in 2008 to prohibit the fielding of space-based armaments. (GSN, 03.02.11).

Energy exports from CIS:

Gazprom stepped up gas supplies to Italy to 2.5 times normal levels after Italy's gas supplies from Libya were cut off, a source in Gazprom said. (Reuters, 02.28.11).
Gazprom won for the rights to the Kovykta gas field that has enough fuel to meet Chinese demand for two decades. (Bloomberg, 03.01.11).
Energy-hungry China is set to sign an agreement with the Central Asian nation of Turkmenistan later this year to boost its future annual natural gas purchases by 20 billion cubic meters. The deal means Turkmenistan's annual gas sales to China will eventually reach 60 billion cubic meters — equivalent to more than half China's entire natural gas consumption last year. (AP, 03.02.11).
France's Total SA is taking a large share in Novatek and a significant piece of a project with the Russian natural gas producer to build a liquefied natural gas facility. (AP, 03.02.11).

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

"Our accession to the WTO is largely being lobbied now in Washington not by bureaucrats but by businesses. And here we need to withhold our interest so as not to cause irreparable damage to our industrial sectors and agriculture," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. He said he would not give any possible dates for Russia's accession to the WTO. (Interfax, 03.02.11).

Other bilateral issues:

U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden will make a working visit to Moscow on March 9, said Bob Jensen, the assistant to the White House press secretary. Sources within the Russian Foreign Ministry say that the negotiations with Biden will be focused on European ballistic missile defense. The Kremlin press service confirmed that President Dmitry Medvedev would receive Biden on March 9. "We would consider Joe Biden's visit to Moscow successful, if the parties could announce the date of Barack Obama's visit," Medvedev’s aide Sergey Prikhodko said. According to Daniel Russell, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, Biden's visit to Moscow slated for early March is designed to consolidate progress for Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and expand bilateral economic relations. Russell said last week that the next personal meeting between the presidents of the two countries would be held at the G8 summit in Deauville, France, in late May 2011. (Kommersant, Itar-Tass, Russia Today, 02.03.11).
A source within the State Duma said one important item on Vice President Joe Biden's agenda in Moscow concerned Putin's future. The source suggested that Putin might be offered the post of International Olympic Committee chairman in return for non- participation in the presidential election in Russia in 2012. (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 03.04.11).
Several working groups from the U.S. Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission are to meet in Moscow from February 28 to March 5 to hold discussions on joint projects and engagement designed to build sustainable scientific, academic, and private sector cooperation. These include the Science and Technology Working Group and Education Sub-Working Group. U.S. President Barack Obama's chief science and technology adviser John Holdren on Wednesday in Moscow advocated larger quotas for Russian scientists and students visiting the United States under exchange programs. (Interfax, 02.03.11, U.S. State Department, 02.25.11).
On March 3, Judith McHale, U.S. Under Secretary of State, and Ambassador Mikhail Shvydkoy, Special Representative of the Russian President for International Cultural Cooperation, were to launch a dialogue between Russian and American media professionals as part of the U.S.-Russia Presidential Commission in Boston. (U.S. Department of State, 02.03.11).
Asked whether modern Russia can trust the USA, Mikhail Gorbachev said: "They (Americans) are cunning fellows. By God, one cannot trust anyone, to be honest. Trust but verify. One should verify but one should also trust." (Rossiya 24, 03.02.11).

II. Russia news.

Domestic Politics, Economy and Energy:

President Dmitry Medvedev used the 150th anniversary of the abolition of serfdom in Russia to cast himself as a champion of reform Thursday but said steps towards broader democracy will be cautious. "You cannot postpone freedom until later and you should not be afraid that a free man will make inadequate use of his freedom," Medvedev said. Also, a nation cannot "be held together by tightened screws," the president maintained. (Reuters, RT, 02.03.11).
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin promised extra cash to state workers and students on Friday, but stopped short of bigger vote-winning gestures before a campaign run culminating in Russia's 2012 presidential poll. Russia holds regional polls on March 13, followed by parliamentary elections in December and the presidential vote next March. (Reuters, 03.04.11).
Mikhail Gorbachev was awarded Russia's highest medal on his 80th birthday Wednesday. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told Gorbachev during a meeting that he would be awarded the Order of St. Andrew. Medvedev said leading the Soviet Union during a "very complex, dramatic period" was a tough job. Putin congratulated Gorbachev in a telegram Wednesday, praising him as "one of the great statesmen of modern times, who have made a significant impact on the course of world history." (AP, 03.02.11).
On the threshold of presidential and parliamentary elections, Russia's Justice Ministry is going fight illicit groups disguised as nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), said the head of the body, Aleksandr Konovalov. (Russia Today, 03.01.11).
The main objective of the judicial reform that is being carried out in the country, ensuring the real independence of the judiciary, has still not been achieved, Russian Constitutional Court Chairman Valeriy Zorkin said. (RIA Novosti, 03.03.11).
Prices are rising quickly and, in February, every second person (49 percent) was dissatisfied and ready to participate in a protest, according to a Public Opinion Foundation survey of 3,000 people from 204 towns on Feb. 19-20. (Vedomosti, 02.28.11).
Oligarch Alexander Ponomarenko has bought an unfinished mansion and has been at the center of tabloid controversy since last December, when businessman Sergei Kolesnikov claimed that state funds were being diverted to build a personal palace for the prime minister. (Moscow Times, 03.04.11).
Russia increased oil output in February, approaching record levels and retaining its status as the world's top producer, but leaving little spare capacity to respond to global supply shocks, data showed on Wednesday. Russia produced 10.23 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil last month, up from 10.21 million bpd in January and just shy of October's daily record 10.26 million bpd, the Energy Ministry data showed. (Reuters, 03.02.11).
Manufacturing output grew at the fastest pace in three years last month, reaching its highest level since January 2008, on stronger domestic demand. The Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 55.2, from 53.5 in January, HSBC Holdings said. (Bloomberg, 03.02.11).
Net profit of BP's Russian joint venture TNK-BP increased by 17 percent in 2010 to a record high of $5.8 billion (on the back of increasing production and oil prices, the company said on Tuesday. (Reuters, 03.01.11).

Defense:

"The regiment made of two (RS-24) missile battalions has started combat duty," said an official representative of the Strategic Missile Forces, Col Vadim Koval. (Interfax, 03.04.11).
Russia indicated it would within months probably conduct the 15th test flight of its Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missile. (GSN, 02.28.11).
Production of Russia's next nuclear-capable bomber is not expected to begin before 2025. (GSN, 03.03.11).
President Dmitry Medvedev has decreed to make Lt. Gen. Valery Yevnevich Assistant Russian Defense Minister. The same decree has also made appointments to a number of senior positions in military districts, branches of the Armed Forces, military schools and other subdivisions within the Defense Ministry. (Interfax-AVN, 03.02.11).
A Moscow military tribunal has convicted Lt. Gen. Anatoly Bashlakov, a former chief of the Russian Armed Forces Main Educational Department, of accepting a bribe of 700,000 rubles and sentenced him to seven years in prison. (Interfax, 03.01.11).

Security and law-enforcement:

The Law on the Police came into force in Russia on Tuesday.

o The law renamed from militia to police.

o The 1.4 million-strong police force is being trimmed by 20% by the end of the year, an extra 217 billion rubles (£4.7 billion) is to be spent providing better equipment and training as well as a 30% pay rise, according to the law.

o The law introduces new requirements and prohibitions bringing the Russian police closer into line with their Western counterparts, from requiring them to identify themselves when challenged and inform detainees of their legal rights, through to constraints on the use of tear gas and water cannon against peaceful protests.

o The MVD's 180,000 Interior Troops are not going to face the same kinds of cuts. Indeed, they are going through a major re-equipment program.

o Whereas in the past many police forces were wholly or partly funded by local authorities, now it will all come out of the federal budget. (Opendemorcacy.net, 03.01.11).

The Chechen Islamist rebel leader who is Russia's most wanted man has issued an appeal for recruits for a "total war" against the Russian state, in a new video message posted on Thursday. As well as repeating calls for women to join the rebellion, Doku Umarov called on Russian Muslims from outside the Caucasus like the Volga regions of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan to join the insurgency. (AFP, 03.03.11).
Raising the specter of a new wave of violence, ordinary people weary of bloodshed in the North Caucasus have threatened to take up arms themselves to kill militants and their families. The grass-roots vigilantes have formed a group called the Black Hawks that opposes Wahhabism, a radical form of Islam favored by militants. (Moscow Times, 02.03.11).
Destabilization in the Middle East and North Africa could lead to aggravation in Central Asia and in Russia's North Caucasus, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. (Interfax, 03.02.11).
Georgia dismissed Russian suggestions on Tuesday that it was behind a suicide bombing that killed 37 people at Moscow's busiest airport in January. (Reuters, 03.01.11).

Foreign affairs:

A Kremlin source on Tuesday suggested Libya's leader Muammar Gaddafi should step down, calling him a "living political corpse who has no place in the modern civilized world.” (Reuters, 03.01.11).
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the government of Libya had to honor its commitments under the arms contracts already fulfilled. Experts estimate Russia's losses, denied profits included, at between 2 and 4 billion euros. (Rossiiskaya Gazeta, 02.03.11).
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov ruled out the idea of creating a no-fly zone over Libya on Tuesday as embattled leader Moammar Gadhafi unleashed bombing raids, special forces, and army troops in a desperate bid to retain power. (AP, 02.28.11).
“We’re just not there yet,” one senior U.S. administration official said of the no-flight zone proposal on Tuesday, warning that China and Russia, along with some non-permanent members of the Security Council, would object unless Colonel Qaddafi began using his air force to attack large numbers of Libyans. (New York Times, 03.02.11).
"If someone in Washington is seeking a blitzkrieg in Libya, it is a serious mistake because any use of military force outside the NATO responsibility zone will be considered a violation of international law," Russia's ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin said. (Interfax, 03.01.11).
Russia plans to install Yakhont anti-ship cruise missiles, as well as the Tor-M2 antiaircraft system and Mi-28H "Night Hunter" attack helicopters on the Kuril Islands, a move likely to heighten tensions with Japan, which claims the territories as its own. (Wall Street Journal, 02.03.11).
The Russian Federal Security Service's border guard department proposed on Tuesday introducing a visa-free travel regime for foreign citizens amid falling numbers of visiting tourists from the European Union. (RIA Novosti, 03.01.11).
In a move that could raise tensions between London and Moscow, the UK has urged the Kremlin to reveal the findings of an investigation into the death in custody of Russian corporate lawyer Sergei Magnitsky who alleged police corruption. (Financial Times, 02.03.11).

Russia's neighbors:

The European Commission has pledged $650 million in financial assistance to Ukraine aimed at boosting the rule of law and good governance in the country. (Financial Times, 03.02.11).
The United Nations has admitted it made a rare error when it issued a statement from Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on February 27 accusing Belarus of delivering three attack helicopters to the embattled former president of Ivory Coast in violation of the UN arms embargo. (RFE/RL, 02.03.11).
Campaigning has kicked off for Kazakhstan's April 3 presidential election that is all but certain to return incumbent Nursultan Nazarbaev to power. Nazarbaev is competing against three candidates, none of whom has any broad appeal -- a Communist, a flamboyant politician known for his temper, and an ecologist. (RFE/RL, 03.03.11).