Russia in Review

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of January 21-28, 2011

I. U.S. and Russia priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

In his Tuesday State of the Union address U.S. President Barack Obama said: "Because Republicans and Democrats approved the New START Treaty, far fewer nuclear weapons and launchers will be deployed. Because we rallied the world, nuclear materials are being locked down on every continent so they never fall into the hands of terrorists." (White House, 01.25.11).
Russia and the United States held a round of consultations on strategic stability on Friday in Washington that would focus on nuclear terrorism among other issues. “The agenda is broad. It comprises everything – from missile defense and conventional armaments up to the situation at the Disarmament Conference and prospects for the prolongation of the mandate of Committee 1540 of the UN Security Council. There are other issues concerning enhanced fight against nuclear terrorism, etc.,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. (Itar-Tass, 01.28.11).
Pakistan and Russia were looking for ways to tackle Islamist militancy and nuclear proliferation during talks on Monday aimed at overcoming decades of distrust. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov led the Russian side at two-day talks. "The main issues to be discussed at the talks will be nonproliferation, counter-terrorism as well as regional and global security," a Pakistani Foreign Ministry official said. (Reuters, 01.24.11).
The Russian Armed Forces started training for the prevention and confinement of environmental and man-made emergencies on Thursday. Central military commands and staffs of military districts and units are taking part in the command-and-staff practice, a source at the Defense Ministry said. (Interfax-AVN, 01.27.11).
At a recent meeting with Kazakh Foreign Minister Kanat Saudabayev, White House arms control chief Gary Samore "confirmed the support of the U.S. government for Kazakhstan’s initiative to host an international nuclear fuel bank under the auspices of IAEA," the Kazakh Foreign Ministry said. (GSN, 01.28.11).

Iran nuclear issues:

In his Wednesday speech at Davos Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said: “The international community so far has no information that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. Moreover, Iran is a party to the rhea Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. And that’s exactly why Iran needs to dispel doubts about its nuclear program, convince us that its program is of peaceful nature.” (Kremlin.ru, 01.25.11).
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said Russia is waiting for reaction from Iran on the revised fuel swap proposal, presented to Iran in Istanbul. The proposal calls for Iran to send 2,800 kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU) and 40 kg of higher-grade material abroad. According to the proposal, Iran would send low grade uranium to Russia for processing, then to be made into “fuel rods” in France for use in an Iranian medical research reactor. Referring to the proposal, Iran's envoy to the IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh said: "There is no need for the Americans to be involved in this project: the Russians will enrich the fuel.” (Reuters, 01.23.11, Reuters, 01.27.11).
Russia is “disappointed” by results of the last week’s two-day talks of the six powers with Iran, said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. (Itar-Tass, 01.28.11).
The start of nuclear reactions in the reactor of the Bushehr plant is scheduled for mid-February, while the connection of the plant to the national grid is to take place on April 9, according to Ali Akbar Salehi, acting foreign minister and head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization. (ISNA via BBC, AFP, 01.28.11).
A recent cyber attack on Iran's nuclear program could have triggered a disaster comparable to the one in Chernobyl 25 years ago, Russia's envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin said Wednesday. Rogozin urged NATO to join Moscow in investigating who created and unleashed the mysterious and destructive computer worm known as Stuxnet. (Reuters, 01.26.11).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to Afghanistan:

The NATO-Russia Council issued a statement condemning Monday's "terrorist bombing" at Domodedovo airport. "Our countries stand together in the fight against terrorism, and we are determined to expedite our efforts to counter this scourge," the statement said. The two sides agreed Wednesday on a work plan in six areas of cooperation including combating terrorism, countering sea piracy, and renewing cooperation on a missile defense system to protect troops. (AFP, 01.26.11).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

President Barack Obama condemned the suicide bombing attack at Moscow’s Domodedovo airport as an “outrageous act of terrorism” and offered assistance to Russia. He also called Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to express his condolences. In their conversation, Medvedev and Obama “pointed out that Russia and the U.S. stand ready for close interaction for the eradication of terrorism, which poses a threat to the entire civilized world," the Kremlin said. (New York Times, AP 01.25.11, Interfax, 01.26.11).
The suicide bombing at Moscow's Domodedovo airport is a tragedy that "could have just as easily happened" in the United States, a top U.S. defense official said, as New York officials dispatched a police detective to Moscow to gather information about the attack. "People think of us and the Russians as adversaries, and we're not, and particularly in this area," said James Winnefeld, the commander of NORAD and the U.S. Northern Command, which is responsible for the military defense of U.S. soil and supporting civilian agencies in the event of natural or human-caused disasters. (AP, 01.27.11).

Missile defense:

In his Wednesday speech at Davos Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said: "We must not stop at that and continue our efforts in reduction of strategic offensive weapons and limitations in a related area of missile defense. Today the European missile defense system is being deployed in Europe. Russia also considers itself to be part of Europe. And we would like to feel secure too if only because missile defense may become part of strategic nuclear potential.” Earlier this week Medvedev called on NATO to provide a clear answer over his country's role in the European missile shield, warning that Moscow could deploy more nuclear weapons if it was left out of the umbrella. (AFP, 01.26.11, Kremlin.ru, 01.25.11.)
"The main condition for joint work [in the area of missile defense] should be the permanent participation of Russian experts in drafting the European missile defense architecture," Gen. Nikolai Makarov said at a meeting of the Russia-NATO Council on Wednesday. "We want to understand the entire design of this 'house,’ its purpose and cost, and the role Russia will play in it," the general said. (RIA Novosti, 01.27.11).
At this week’s session of the NATO-Russia Council, the participants remained apart on the missile shield project to defend European populations and territories. Russia's ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin told reporters that there should be a "common" NATO-Russian missile defense system. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, in a video blog last week, said the two systems should remain separate but could cooperate by sharing information and developing "potential synergies." (AFP, 01.26.11).
New warheads for intercontinental ballistic missiles developed in Russia may overcome any existing and future missile defense systems, Yury Solomonov said, the general designer at the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology said. (Interfax-AVN, 01.27.11).
The Russian Space Forces have all of the technical capabilities needed to help operate a planned European missile defense shield, Space Forces Commander Lt. Gen. Oleg Ostapenko told journalists on Thursday. (Interfax-AVN, 01.27.11).
The U.S. Defense Department should incorporate new details in a plan to deploy missile defenses in Europe, including more specific expense projections and conditions for the finished system, the Government Accountability Office said in a report. (GSN, 01.27.11).

Ratification of the New START treaty:

President Dmitry Medvedev gave Russia's final approval to the New START and suggested that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton exchange documents starting the treaty's 10-year term in force at the annual security conference being held in Munich, Germany, on February 4-6. A Russian diplomatic source said the ceremony was expected to be held on February 5. "In the future it will be necessary to make new decisions. But that is a different story,” he said. (Reuters, 01.28.11).
The Federation Council, Russia's upper parliament chamber, unanimously ratified the New START treaty on Wednesday. The Russian parliament’s lower chamber ratified the New START on Tuesday. While the U.S. Senate resolution said the treaty shouldn't restrict U.S. plans to develop a missile defense system, the Duma ratification bill stated that the treaty can only be fulfilled if emerging missile defenses don't erode the Russian nuclear deterrent. The Russian draft bill also mimicked the Senate resolution that mentioned increased funding for the U.S. nuclear arsenal by emphasizing the need to modernize Russia's nuclear forces. (AP, 01.25.11, Reuters, 01.26.11).
When the treaty formally enters into effect, the Moscow Treaty from 2002 will expire. Within 45 days after entry into force, the two countries will have an initial exchange of data and photographs of the strategic offensive arms covered by the treaty will be exchanged. After that the inspectors go to work. (Kremlin.ru, 01.25.11, FAS Strategic Security Blog, 01.26.11).

Energy exports from CIS:

ExxonMobil will invest in Russia for the first time in more than a decade as Moscow seeks to thaw its frosty investor climate and keep its oil flowing. Russian state oil company Rosneft will develop over a billion tones of Black Sea oil using a $1 billion investment by U.S.-based ExxonMobil. (Reuters, 01.27.11).

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

U.S. Rear Admiral Dave Titley predicted that as the ice-free period gradually increased, the Bering Strait between the U.S. and Russia would begin to rival the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Malacca. (Financial Times, 01.25.11).

II. Russia news.

Domestic Political, Social and Demographic News

Approval ratings dropped to their lowest for President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in January, a poll showed on Wednesday. Of 1,600 Russians polled by the Independent Levada Center, 69 percent approved of Medvedev as president, down from December's 75 percent. Putin’s rating was at its lowest point since he became premier in 2008 when he hit the constitutional limit of a third term in the Kremlin. The January poll showed 72 percent approval for his leadership compared with 79 percent in December. (Moscow Times, 01.27.11).
President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have given United Russia the exclusive right to use their portraits in the run-up to the State Duma and presidential elections, drawing scorn from other parties Monday. (Moscow Times, 01.25.11).
In his Wednesday speech at Davos Russian President Dmitry Medvedev established a link between future of democracy in Russia and diversification of his country's economy away from its current heavy dependence on energy exports. He argued that vibrant democratic institutions need a safe economic base made up of independent-minded people, challenged the current economic set-up, and said this modernization needs the help of the foreign business community. In Russia's case, having fast internet is not only essential for the modernization plan to succeed but also to fight corruption and promote democracy, he said. (IHS Global Insight Perspective, 01.27.11).
A record 12,000 former Soviet citizens moved to Russia last year through a state program for the resettlement of compatriots, the Federal Migration Service said Monday, adding that the figure marks a 30 percent uptick from 2009. About 31,000 people have moved to Russia since the program’s start in 2007. Initial forecasts said some 300,000 would resettle annually. (Moscow Times, 01.25.11).
Russian authorities are pursuing more evidence against associates of Mikhail Khodorkovsky which might produce a third round of charges against the jailed former oil tycoon, a prosecutor said. (Reuters, 01.24.11).

Economy and Energy:

In his Wednesday speech at Davos Russian President Dmitry Medvedev presented a 10-point modernization plan for the Russian economy, which lambasted reliance on energy exports and reaffirmed commitment to create a knowledge-based economy; called for a common economic space from Russia across the EU, vowed to streamline taxation; and unveiled a plan to attract billions of dollars in private investments to six ski resorts in the north Caucasus Mountains. (AP, 01.26.11, Financial Times, IHS Global Insight Perspective, 01.27.11).
In his Wednesday speech at Davos Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said a special sovereign fund for attracting foreign investment in the Russian economy will be established in Russia, but not soon. “Our task is to promote the opportunities of our country. We really do want investment. We want a swift restoration of economic growth after the crisis.” (Times, 01.26.11, Russian Financial Monitor, 01.26.11).
Four industrial and mining companies from Russia are planning to list in London in the next few weeks, the first in a string of Russian companies hoping to raise an estimated $15-$20 billion this year: Hydraulic Machines & Systems, Russia's leading pump manufacturer, and Koks, a pig iron and coking coal group, steel- pipe maker Chelpipe, and Nord Gold, steelmaker of Severstal's gold mining division. (Financial Times. 01.26.11).
The Central Bank of Russia plans to buy 100 metric tons of gold a year from domestic banks in order to replenish the country's gold reserves. In 2010 Russia's gold reserve increased 23.9 percent to 790 tons. (Wall Street Journal, 01.24.11).
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expect the Russian economy to grow by 4.6 percent after a negative growth during the last quarter of 2010 because of the heat wave, drought, and forest fires. (New York Times, 01.24.11).
Mounting a rare challenge to a government-backed deal, the Russian billionaire co-owners of TNK-BP said Thursday that they were seeking a court order to suspend a multibillion-dollar agreement between BP and state-owned Rosneft. (Moscow Times, 01.27.11.).
Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Reserve Fund, is down to $26 billion — not enough to cover even half of the projected 2011 budget deficit. Thus, for the first time since the financial crisis of 1998, Russia will be compelled this year to turn to international banks and pension funds in the United States and Europe to maintain financing for everything from modernizing the military to paying high public sector wages. (New York Times, 01.24.11).

Defense:

Two new generation radar stations incorporated into Russia's early warning system will be brought into operation in the Kaliningrad and Irkutsk regions, Russian Space Forces Commander Lt. Gen. Oleg Ostapenko told journalists on Thursday. (Interfax-AVN, 01.27.11).
It would be inexpedient to develop a new heavy strategic missile to replace the world's most powerful liquid-fuel missile, the RS-20 Voyevoda (NATO reporting name: Satan), which Russia is removing from duty, Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology General Designer Yuri Solomonov said. (Interfax-AVN, 01.27.11).
The sea-based intercontinental ballistic missile Bulava will be commissioned and passed into service in 2011 if the planned test launches are successful, Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology General Designer Solomonov said. (Interfax-AVN, 01.27.11).
Russia must radically increase the production of intercontinental ballistic missiles in order to maintain the potential of strategic nuclear forces, Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology General Designer Solomonov said. (Interfax-AVN, 01.27.11).
Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said: "As far as our missile defense system is concerned, we have been developing it and will be further developing it.” (GSN, 01.27.11).
France's government on Tuesday signed an agreement to sell two Mistral-class helicopter carriers to Russia. (AP, 01.25.11).

Security and law-enforcement:

01.17.11 Terrorist Attack at Moscow’s Domodedovo Airport:

At least 35 people were killed and over 100 injured when a suicide bomber detonated a device with a yield of about 10 kg of TNT at Moscow’s busiest airport.
The dead include two Austrian citizens, two Tajiks, and one each from Britain, Germany, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan, according to a revised list released by authorities.
In his Wednesday speech at Davos, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia will not be brought to its knees by the terrorist attack at the Domodedovo airport and neither the deadly explosion. The attack “only strengthens our resolve to find an effective international protection against terror.”
Dmitry Medvedev called for "total examination" of passengers and baggage at key transport centers. Medvedev fired Maj. Gen. Andrei Alekseev, head of the transport police for the Russian region that includes Moscow, and three police chiefs in charge of security at Moscow's Domodedovo airport, saying it was just the start of a shake-up. He also called for resignations of officers responsible for transportation security at the Federal Security Service, and sharply questioned security precautions at the airport, saying that officials must be held responsible for failing to prevent the devastating attack.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that those behind a deadly suicide attack on Moscow's busiest airport were unlikely to have come from Russia's southern republic of Chechnya. Putin also vowed "retribution is inevitable" for the suicide bombing.
Russian investigators probing the deadly bombing at Moscow's largest airport were focusing on up to 10 people from the volatile Caucasus region as possible suspects.
Ingush leader Yunus-Bek Yevkurov said: "These leaders of the North Caucasus underground are responsible, like Doku Umarov.”
DNA tests showed that the suicide bomber was not Vitaly Razdobudko, an ethnic Russian member of a North Caucasus Islamist group, who is suspected of involvement in the bombing.
The Russian intelligence agencies investigating the blast have informed their Pakistani counterparts that those responsible for the blast had links in the Waziristan tribal area of Pakistan on the Pak-Afghan border belt. Russia's Federal Security Service asked Pakistani secret services for assistance in probing the bombing. FSB and Foreign Intelligence Service informed Moscow police in December that three women and a man of Chechen nationality were planning to carry out an act of terrorism in Moscow. The four initially went to Pakistan and moved from there to Iran, then subsequently made their way to the Moscow area. This same report spoke of one further group of five rebels, which was to have come to Russia from Pakistan via third countries.

(AP, Reuters, New York Times, Financial Times, Gazeta.ru, AP, Itar-Tass, DNA, 01.26.11-01.28.11).

Other security and law-enforcement news

Security officials said a group of insurgents had planned to launch a suicide attack among the crowds ringing in the New Year on Moscow’s Red Square, but the attempt failed when the female suicide bomber accidentally blew herself up while she was still in her flat. (Financial Times, 01.26.11).
Four people have been killed and six injured in a car bomb attack in the country's restive North Caucasus region. (RFE/RL, 01.27.11).
A device for detecting almost any type of explosives has been developed by the department of applied nuclear physics at the Physics Institute of the Academy of Sciences the Institute for Nuclear Research, the Institute of Nuclear Physics at the Moscow State University and the High Energy Physics Institute. The detector can identify explosives even if they are under thick layers of various materials, including metal. The minimum detectable amount of explosives with a probability of detection of 99.6% is 10 grams. The development has been in part funded by the U.S. initiative of the Non-Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and received a grant from the U.S. Civilian Research and Development Foundation. (Itar-Tass, 01.25.11).

Foreign affairs:

Alexander Yakovenko, 56, previously a deputy foreign minister, has been appointed Russia's ambassador to Britain. (Moscow Times, 01.28.11).
Polish opposition party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski has blamed Russia and the Polish government for the plane crash that killed his brother and 95 others last year. (AP, 01.22.11).

Russia's neighbors:

Work will begin on Belarus' first nuclear power plant in September, Rosatom chief Sergei Kiriyenko told reporters in Minsk late Tuesday. Minsk will pay state-owned Rosatom between $6 and $7 billion to build a nuclear power plant that should come into service by 2017, Kiriyenko said. (Moscow Times, 01.27.11).
Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko told parliament that Poland wants to move the border east some 150 miles (250 kilometers) to the Belarusian capital of Minsk, where it was before the start of the World War II. (AP, 01.27.11).
The leader of the banned Hizb ut-Tahrir movement in Tajikistan, Yusuf Khafizov, has been sentenced to 18 years in prison. (RFE/RL, 01.22.11).
Russia's oil pipeline monopoly restarted oil deliveries to Belarus refineries on Tuesday after a longer than three-week halt while they hammered out a price deal. (Reuters, 01.25.11).
The European Parliament has given its initial green light to a partnership agreement with gas-rich Turkmenistan, aimed at bringing the Central Asian country closer to the European Union. This should lead to a conclusive plenary vote in May after the visit of a parliamentary delegation to Turkmenistan. (RFE/RL, 01.26.11).
Top NATO and European Union officials met Uzbek President Islam Karimov in Brussels. The Brussels visit is the first in years for the Uzbek leader. Karimov met EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Energy Commissioner Gunther Oettinger, signing a memorandum on technical energy matters, as well as concluding an agreement to establish an EU delegation in Uzbekistan. (RFE/RL, 01.24.11).
Kazakhstan's long-serving leader Nursultan Nazarbaev announced today he was ready to continue to serve as president of the oil-rich Central Asian nation for as long as his people and his health allow. (RFE/RL, 01.28.11).
Russia and the United States have “to reach an understanding” on Georgia which in any way “does not need to be a point of conflict” for the two great powers, according to Mike Hammer, Principal Assistant Deputy for Public Affairs at the State Department. (Itar-Tass, 01.28.11).
Georgia launched a Russian-language television channel on Tuesday focusing on news coverage of events in the Caucasus region, including Russia's restive south. (Reuters, 01.26.11).
Moldova received an "action plan" from the European Union today that is to lead toward visa-free travel for Moldovans within the 27-member bloc. (RFE/RL, 01.24.11).