Russia in Review

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of November 12-19, 2010

I. U.S. and Russia priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

The United States and Kazakhstan have completed a secret transfer of weapons-grade nuclear materials stored in this Central Asian republic. They have moved nuclear material that could have been used to make more than 770 bombs from a location feared vulnerable to terrorist attacks to a new high-security facility. In the largest such operation ever mounted, U.S. and Kazakh officials transferred 11 tons of highly enriched uranium and 3 tons of plutonium. The U.S. spent $219 million on the project. Britain contributed $4 million and Kazakhstan contributed an undisclosed amount. (McClatchy Newspapers, 11.16.10).
The Chief of Armenia's State Committee on Nuclear Safety Martirosian asserted that weapons-grade uranium seized in March in Georgia from two Armenian nationals did not come from his country. (GSN, 11.18.10).

Iran nuclear issues:

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev used frank talks Thursday to urge Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to keep his country's nuclear ambitions peaceful or risk further international isolation. In what the Kremlin called a "completely open" exchange, Medvedev told Ahmadinejad on the sidelines of a regional summit here that nations stood ready to support Iran as long as it kept any military ambitions in check. (AFP, 11.18.10,Itar-Tass, 11/18/10).
Russia and Iran have agreed to continue their cooperation in the sphere of the peaceful use of nuclear power on the basis of international law, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday, commenting on the meeting between the two presidents held within the Caspian summit in Baku. (Itar-Tass, 11.19.10).
Iran has successfully tested its own version of a missile system that Russia declined to supply amid concerns Tehran might be seeking nuclear weapons, said Iranian Brigadier General Mohammad Hassan Mansourian (Reuters, 11.18.10).

09.20.10 NATO-Russia Summit

Transit and Afghanistan

U.S. President Obama said: "For just as the United States and Russia have reset our relationship, so too can NATO and Russia. In Lisbon we can make it clear that NATO sees Russia as a partner, not an adversary. We can deepen our cooperation on Afghanistan, counter-narcotics and 21st century security challenges - from the spread of nuclear weapons to the spread of violent extremism. And by moving ahead with cooperation on missile defense, we can turn a source of past tension into a source of cooperation against a shared threat." U.S. President Barack Obama is to hold a separate meeting with Russia President Dmitry Medvedev on sidelines of the summit.
Russian President Medvedev will sign an agreement with NATO leaders aimed at expanding the use of supply routes through Russia into Afghanistan to allow transit of armored vehicles among other things as well as reverse transit from Afghanistan. Russia also is expected to permit goods to be shipped out of Afghanistan through its territory.
Russia's permanent representative at NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, said Russia will be working with NATO on Afghanistan actively, but that it will not send its personnel there under any circumstances.
The two sides will also establish a new counter-narcotics center in Russia to train agents from Afghanistan and other Central Asian nations, and set up a scheme to finance future training of Afghan air force personnel.

Missile defense

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said NATO and Russia would use the summit to begin a "joint analysis" on how Russian missile defense systems can complement NATO's plans.
When asked whether NATO is proposing that Russia and the alliance develop two separate missile defense systems rather than a joint missile defense system, Rasmussen said: "I think it is more realistic to expect there will exist two. Given different traditions and historic roots, I don't think it would be realistic to expect that there will exist one joint system." Rasmussen also said NATO this week does not intend to explicitly make the connection between its proposed missile shield and fears of an Iranian missile strike.
Russia's envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin indicated that Russia had continuing concerns that the system could be directed against it. "Why, if you want to hunt a rabbit, do your guns have the caliber to kill a bear?" he asked. He said the alliance should put restrictions on the missile-defense system's "geography, quality and quantity."
Russia's air force stands ready to join forces with NATO in developing missile defenses, commander of the Russian Air Force Alexander Zelin said on Tuesday. Whether Russia will be providing its transport aircraft for NATO's air transportation needs could be decided in the very near future, he said. (International Herald Tribune, 11.19.10, Financial Times, 11.18.10, Wall Street Journal, 11.18.10, Itar-Tass, 11.18.10, Politico, 11.18.10, AP, 11.15.10, Kommersant, 11.15.10, Interfax, 11.16.10).

Other news on NATO-Russia cooperation:

Russia may soon sign an agreement to trade arms with NATO's procurement agency that would let Russia deal directly with NATO instead of individual countries, according to Russia's envoy to the alliance Rogozin. "This agreement, if signed, will be revolutionary," said Konstantin Makienko, deputy director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow. "Such an agreement will mean a complete new political reality." (Bloomberg, 11.18.10).
Fewer Russians think that cooperation with NATO is really expedient and meets Russia's interests, according to a Levada-Center opinion poll. As many as 45% of those polled said that Russia would not benefit from closer ties with NATO and 22% disagreed (down from 44% in 2008). By contrast, the share of those who trust the European Union and support deeper integration with the EU has grown to 56% (52% in 2007) with 23% distrusting the EU and 22% undecided. (Interfax, 11.12.10).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

No significant developments.

Missile defense:

Rogozin, Russia's ambassador to NATO, said the Kremlin was unable to persuade the United States to restrict its European missile defense plans in discussions last week, Reuters reported."We tried to convince the Americans that ... it is necessary to set limits on a missile defense system -- on deployment zones, on the number of interceptor missiles, and on the speed of the interceptors," he said. (GSN, 11.18.10).

Ratification of the New START treaty:

Republicans:

In a statement released on Tuesday, Sen. Jon Kyl, the leading Republican senator on the New START agreement said he didn't think the issue should be considered this year. Kyl has given no indication that his intransigence is brinkmanship. Prior to Kyl's statement the administration has floated the proposal to add $4 billion to the $80 billion program - designed to modernize the nuclear weapons complex over the next 10 years - in hopes of winning Kyl's support. Before Kyl's announcement an administration official working on the issue said that the administration had had "very positive conversations" with Kyl and believed the prospects for approval were "trending more positive." Also, Gary Samore, U.S. National Security Council coordinator for arms control and nonproliferation, said a "basic agreement" had been reached with Kyl on future funding levels for the U.S. nuclear weapons complex.
In August Kyl denied setting a price to support the New START. But he told reporters back then that the commitment he was seeking could cost up to $10 billion more than $80 billion that the administration has pledged to modernizing U.S. nuclear weapons.
Republican Senator Richard Lugar said that failure to ratify the treaty was "inexcusable." "We're at a point where we're unlikely to have either the treaty or modernization unless we get real," Lugar said.
Support from Kyl is still "gettable" if Clinton and the administration are willing to amend the treaty and more clearly lay out modernization components, according to Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.
Republican Senator Bob Corker - who voted at the Foreign Relations Committee in September to send the treaty to the full Senate for consideration - said the administration has made an effort and needs to have patience."We want to make sure there's a modernization process in place so they actually work," he said of weapons remaining in the nuclear stockpile after the treaty is ratified.
Ten of the new incoming Republican senators wrote to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid today to demand the right to vote on the New START treaty.
Independent Senator Joe Lieberman - who often votes with Republicans - said he is encouraged that Kyl stated concerns about timing more than the treaty itself and noted that failure to move the bill in the lame duck session will not prevent ratification next year. "I hope leadership in Russia understands that," Lieberman said.
Republican Senator George Voinovich offered his support to the Obama administration in exchange for waiving visa requirements for Polish citizens.

Democrats:

President Obama said: "It is a national security imperative that the United States ratify the New Start treaty this year. "I'm confident that we should be able to get the votes."
Vice President Joseph Biden said: "Failure to pass the New START Treaty this year would endanger our national security," Biden stated.
Asked if there were enough votes without Kyl, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said, "We think we'll get them." U.S. President Barack Obama needs seven Republican senators who will agree that it is better for a vote to take place now than in the new year, when their party will have more power in the Senate. Those senators would have to defy their party's leaders and hand Obama a major political victory at a time when America's political winds are blowing overwhelmingly in the Republicans' favor.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton came on Wednesday to Capitol Hill to urge the Senate to ratify the treaty. She said she planned to contact Senator Kyl in coming days.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Senate Foreign Affairs Committee chairman John Kerry said they would try to win ratification this year.

Military

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen said:"I am extremely concerned." " I think it's critical that we move forward as rapidly as we can. I'm very comfortable with our military capability that's represented in this treaty. I'm very comfortable with the verification piece. The military leadership across the board in the United States military supports moving forward with this treaty, and I hope we can do it as rapidly as possible."
In the absence of the New START, the U.S. intelligence community is telling Congress it will need to focus more spy satellites over Russia that could be used to peer on other sites, such as Iraq and Afghanistan, to support the military.

Russian reaction

"We expect that there is enough time for discussing a ratification package for the New START treaty and that voting will take place during the current session," said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. Asked what implications could follow if voting on the treaty's ratification is postponed until next year, Ryabkov replied, "I wouldn't like to theorize. This would not be the best outcome of the work we have done."
Mikhail Margelov, the head of the Russian Federation Council's international affairs committee said: "One should agree with Joe Biden who fears that due to procrastinations with the ratification, the United States may lose Moscow's vital support in tackling the problem of Iran and in the war in Afghanistan."
Sergei Rogov, head of the U.S.A. and Canada Institute said Russia would be unlikely to backtrack on its moves regarding Iran and Afghanistan, even if the Senate fails to seal the arms deal, but that it would close the door to any further friendly action.
"The result will by no means be nuclear catastrophe," said Igor S. Ivanov, a former foreign minister, "but there will undoubtedly be negative results, and not just for U.S.-Russian relations."
Alexander Goltz, a military affairs analyst said: "From the beginning, Russia has looked at Iran as a good card to play with the U.S. Cooperation on Iran can be the real victim of a failure to ratify the treaty."

Vox Populi:

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday indicates that 73 percent of the American public says the U.S. should vote in favor of a recently signed treaty between President Barack Obama and Russia that would reduce the number of nuclear weapons in each country, with 23 percent saying the accord should not be ratified by the Senate. (Washington Times, AP, Foreign Policy, GSN, JTA, 11/19/10; Washington Post, AP, Foreign Policy, 11.18.10; New York Times, ABC, GSN, Bloomberg, CNN, Interfax, 11.17.10; Reuters, 08.04.10).

Energy exports from CIS:

Turkmenistan's First Deputy Prime Minister Baymurad Khojamukhamedov has said his country is ready to provide some 40 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the European Union-backed Nabucco pipeline project. (RFE/RL, 11.19.10).

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

The United States sees Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2011 as realistic, U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Beyrle said on Tuesday. (Xinhua, 11.16.10).

11.14.10 meeting of U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Japan

New START.

President Medvedev refrained from referring to the treaty during the joint press opportunity with President Obama after their meeting.
President Obama said: "I reiterated my commitment to get the START Treaty done during the lame duck session, and I've communicated to Congress that it is a top priority." "My hope and expectation is that given this is a good treaty, given it has the support of previous Republican senior government officials, we should be able to get it done."

Joint missile defense.

President Medvedev said: "We exchanged views on what steps we think could be taken in this area, and agreed to instruct our aides and ministers to continue advancing in this direction. "Also said there will be more discussion of missile defense at the NATO-Russia summit.

Afghanistan.

President Obama said: "I want to again thank President Medvedev on his cooperation with respect to Afghanistan. There has been excellent transit cooperation in recent months and we think we can build on that in our discussions next week," referring to the NATO-Russia summit.

NATO-Russia summit on 11.20.10.

President Obama said: "It allows us to restart the NATO-Russia Council and a host of consultations so that we can reduce tensions and increase cooperation on various security matters in the European theater."

WTO.

President Medvedev said:"We have made serious progress of late on the subject of Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization. I think that credit here goes to the President of the United States' team, which has implemented all of the agreements reached during my visit to Washington."
Obama said: "We're working closely with them on Russia's interest in potentially joining the WTO."

Partnership.

President Obama said: "I'm glad to have him as an excellent partner on a whole range of these issues." He was "very pleased" with a "strong" statement from Medvedev last week condemning a brutal attack on a leading reporter for the Kommersant newspaper. (Official web sites of the U.S. and Russian presidents, Itar-Tass, AFP, Washington Post, 11.14.10).

Other bilateral issues:

Suspected Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout pleaded not guilty in a U.S. court and was ordered held without bail on Wednesday, as Moscow said his extradition was illegal and threatened improving ties with Washington. The 43-year-old former Soviet air force officer was flown to New York from Thailand late on Tuesday to face terrorism and arms trafficking charges. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the Thai government's decision resulted from "an unprecedented political pressure on the court and the government of Thailand" brought by the United States. Russian diplomat Andrei Yushmanov said on Thursday that U.S. authorities pressured Bout to admit guilt during his extradition flight, offering him unspecified benefits in return. President Dmitry Medvedev's top foreign policy aide Sergei Prikhodko said Russia "has nothing to hide" and that there are "no secrets, military or otherwise" that Bout could pass to the Americans. (AP, 11.18.10, Reuters, 11.17.10, AP, 11.16.10).
The number of Russians who have positive attitude towards the United States declined by over 50 % in the first eight months of this year, according to results of an opinion poll released on Sunday. The nation-wide polls conducted by the respected Levada Center in January and September showed that the percentage of Russians that think positively of the U.S. was 54 and 26 respectively. The percentage of Russians who harbor negative feelings towards United States declined in the same period from 31% to 29%, according to results of the poll. (Belfer Center, 11.14.10).

II. Russia news.

Domestic Political, Social, and Demographic News

Vladislav Surkov, the powerful deputy head of the presidential administration who oversees domestic politics, told student leaders of U.S. Ivy League universities: "We hope that Russia will become one of the Western democratic countries and we are on that path. We need a democracy in the global sense of that word so that all external problems are resolved through democratic procedures in the world." Surkov also said United Russia may lose the constitutional majority in the next parliament, Russian newspapers reported on Thursday. (Belfer Center, 11.19.10).
Russia is planning a major shake-up of its population structure by concentrating on the bulk of its people in 20 urban centers rather than scattered across the country. According to Vedomosti, the government plan says that developing small towns with a population of less than 100,000 people -- which make up 90 per cent of Russia's towns -- had no perspective in the future. (AFP, 11.16.10).
Russia's interior ministry, accused of complicity in a $230m tax fraud, is trying to turn the tables on its accuser, who died in prison a year ago today. The ministry said Sergei Magnitsky, a lawyer jailed by police after he accused them of complicity in the theft, was the mastermind. (Financial Times, 11.16.10).

Economy, and Energy:

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Tuesday appointed First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov to the post of the chairman of State Corporation Rosatom's supervisors, according to this nuclear industry giant's official web site. In that capacity Shuvalov is replacing Sergei Sobyanin whom President Dmitry Medvedev plucked out of the federal government to appoint as the mayor of Moscow, according to a statement posted on Rosatom's official web site on Thursday. (Belfer Center, 11.18.10).
Russia and Nigeria are continuing discussions about building a nuclear power plant in Africa's most populous country to help boost its power supply, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said. (Bloomberg, 11.17.10).
Russia's economy gained 3.9% in October from the same period last year, Economy Minister Elvira Nabiullina told reporters. Gross domestic product expanded an annual 3.7% in the first ten months of the year, Nabiullina said. (Bloomberg, 11.17.10).
Russia's government plans to create a special economic zone in the Ural Mountains to make titanium products for industries including aerospace and machine building, the regional Sverdlovsk government said. The "Titanium Valley" project is designed to cost 40 billion rubles ($1.3 billion) and create 20,000 jobs in Verkhnaya Salda. (Bloomberg, 11.19.10).
The government expects to raise a total of 1 trillion rubles ($32 billion) from selling stakes in 10 state assets by 2013, Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina said Wednesday. (Moscow Times, 11.18.10).
Intel Corp may join a growing number of the world's biggest technology firms in backing Russia's Silicon Valley-style technology hub. (Reuters. 11.18.10).

Defense policy:

A fifth force of Pacific Fleet warships is heading to the Gulf of Aden to join the U.N. anti-piracy mission. The group of warships is led by the large anti-submarine warfare ship, the Admiral Vinogradov, carrying two deck helicopters. The other warships are carrying Marines, the Pacific Fleet said in a statement. (Interfax, 11.16.10).
Russia will fulfill its international commitment to destroy its arsenal of chemical weapons before 2015, said Valery Kapashin, head of the Federal Department for the Safe Storage and Destruction of Chemical Weapons. Russia's sixth chemical agent destruction plant is to be brought online at the end of the month in the Bryansk region, where the nation's biggest chemical weapons stockpile is housed at Pochep. (GSN, 11.16.10, Interfax, 11.17.10).

Security policy:

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday that the work of Russia's law enforcement agencies to tackle crime in the North Caucasus is yet to be significantly improved. "Statistics of crime solvency is false. I don't trust it," he said. In Russia as a whole, the number of killings fell 13% so far this year, but that in Northern Caucasus the number rose 5%, according to Medvedev. A total 4,500 armed clashes have taken place in the North Caucasus so far this year. A total of 332 armed group members have been killed in this region since the start of this year, Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) chief Alexander Bortnikov said. (Xinhua, 11.19.10).
Retired General Viktor Gaidukov the 12th Main Directorate of the Defense Ministry became the first, and so far the only, civil servant fired for false data in his income declaration. Once he retired from the army, military prosecutors launched an investigation and discovered episodes of pilfering between 2006 and 2010. Budget funds provided for engineer modernization of nuclear objects of over 20 million rubles ($644,000) were transacted to bank accounts of a company owned by Vera Gaidukova, the officer's spouse. Work on the objects in question was carried out by servicemen of a unit within the 12th directorate that Gaidukov himself commanded. (RBC Daily via What Papers Say, 11.18.10).

Foreign policy:

Russia will provide the Lebanese army with free helicopters, tanks and munitions in a deal that will boost the country's poorly equipped military, officials said Tuesday. Lebanon's Prime Minister Saad Hariri said the Russian aid includes six helicopters, 31 tanks, 130 mm caliber cannon shells, and about half a million different munitions for medium-sized weapons and artillery shells. (AP, 11.16.10).

Russia's neighbors:

The third gathering since 2002 of the five presidents whose countries border the Caspian Sea failed to resolve outstanding territorial issues Thursday. If there was an agreement about the Caspian, the issue of a 200-kilometer trans-Caspian pipeline from Turkmenbashi, Turkmenistan, to Baku would become a "purely bilateral matter between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan," said Mikhail Korchemkin, managing director of East European Gas Analysis. (Kazakhstan Newsline, 11.19.10).
U.S. President Obama is to hold a separate meeting with Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili on the sidelines of the 11.19.10-11.20.10 NATO summit. (AP, 11.19.10).