Russia in Review

An update from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of October 22-29, 2010.

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of October 22-29, 2010

I. U.S. and Russia priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

The U.S. Cooperative Threat Reduction program since August has deactivated 48 strategic nuclear warheads. The Nunn-Lugar effort in that period also eliminated four ICBMs and 16 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, safeguarded three nuclear arms train shipments and supported disposal of nearly 70 metric tons of chemical warfare agents. (GSN, 10/25/10).
The Arms Control Association's first Report Card assessing how a number of countries have lived up to their existing nonproliferation commitments gives Russia an overall grade is "B-," lowest of all official nuclear powers with the exception of China, primarily because of its failure to de-alert and champion nuclear-weapon free zones, enforce exports control and because of negative security assurances. U.S. has earned a "B" from writers of the 79-page October 2010 report, which gives grades to the five nuclear powers, India, Israel and Pakistan as well as examines North Korea, Iran and Syria. (Belfer Center, 10/28/10).

Iran nuclear issues:

The Obama administration and its European allies are preparing a new offer for negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program, senior administration officials say, but the conditions on Tehran will be even more onerous than a deal that the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, rejected last year. (New York Times, 10/27/10).
The United States has no problem with Iran's Russian-built Bushehr nuclear reactor plant but with other sites where weapons work may be underway, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Tuesday. (AP, 10/26/10).
Russia would still supply Iran with weapons under five earlier contracts not covered by U.N. sanctions "Any applications for armaments exempt [from the UN sanctions] will become a subject of negotiations. There is no taboo on such categories of armaments and parts," Rosoboronexport General Director Anatoly Isaikin said on Thursday. (Xinhua, 10/29/10, Interfax, 10/28/10).
In an interview, Ambassador of Iran in Moscow Reza Sajjadi warned that it would be unwise for Russia to distance itself from Iran. "At present, Iran helps prevention of spreading of terrorism in the Caucasian region, as well as drug trafficking to Russia." (Nezavisimaya Gazeta via WPS: Defense & Security, 10/28/10).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to Afghanistan:

U.S. and Russian special forces have raided drug labs in Afghanistan in an unprecedented collaborative military operation, destroying what a Russian official said was $250 million worth of heroin and morphine. Moscow is engaged in training the Afghan army and counter-narcotics troops and has agreed in principle to supply NATO with several dozen helicopters for use in Afghanistan. (AP, 10/29/10, Independent, 10/28/10).
NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen says the alliance's upcoming Lisbon summit "will represent a new start in the relationship between NATO and Russia." "The Guardian" quotes a Western diplomat as saying that new understandings are expected on improved air and land supply and transit arrangements via Central Asian states such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. (RIA Novosti, 10/27/10).
Anatoliy Isaykin, head Russian state arms exporter, told journalists on Thursday that "Russia may soon start supplying some types of hardware directly to Afghanistan. (Interfax, 10/28/10).
Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev said: "Victory is impossible in Afghanistan. Obama is right to pull the troops out. No matter how difficult it will be." (CBS. 10/27/10).
Russia is demanding that a new cooperation agreement with NATO limit the number of troops that can be based in new member states in Central Europe. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov handed a draft agreement to NATO demanding a ban on "significant military forces" in states that joined since the Soviet breakup in 1991, according to a report in Kommersant. (AP, 10/27/10).
NATO is widely expected to defer any major decision on the potential pullback of U.S. nuclear weapons deployed in Europe until well after alliance's heads of state meet in Portugal next month. (GSN, 10/28/10).

Counter-terrorism cooperation:

No significant developments.

Missile defense:

Russia is willing to discuss NATO plans for a European missile defense system, though it wishes to have equal involvement in the creation of the shield. "The most important thing for us is firstly to define what are the real threats to Europe, and secondly is to see Russia put on an equal footing as a participant," Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov told Der Spiegel in an article published today. (GSN, 10/25/10).
A senior U.S. diplomat today reaffirmed the Obama administration's desire to collaborate with Russia in developing antimissile systems in Europe. "It's absolutely clear we want to do this cooperatively with Russia," Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon said in Berlin. "Russia faces the same potential threat as Europe," he added. (GSN, 10/27/10).

Ratification of the New START treaty:

Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana says the Senate may not ratify the agreement during the lame-duck session if the GOP makes significant gains in next week's elections. (The Hill, 10/27/10).
"We are looking to pursue a final vote on the floor before the end of the year and we think it's very important to continue working very hard in that direction," said Rose Gottemoeller, the treaty's lead negotiator and assistant secretary of State for Verification, Compliance, and Implementation. (Foreign Policy, 10/27/10).
Senate Republicans plan to seize on the news that a squadron of ICBMs controlled at Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming went on the blink Saturday morning to delay or even block ratification of the treaty. (Atlantic, 10/28/10).
Republican California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger returned from a trip to Moscow with Silicon Valley executives with a strong message for those who are fighting against ratification of the New START nuclear treaty with Russia. "There are those in America that are trying to flex their muscles and pretend they're ballsy by saying, ‘we've got to keep those nuclear weapons,'" the ‘governator' told the U.S.-Russia Business Council Oct. 21. "[They think] that's very rugged, when you say that. It's not rugged at all. It's an idiot that says that. It's stupid to say that." (Foreign Policy, 10/28/10).

Energy exports from CIS:

No significant developments.

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

U.S. President Barack Obama will hold a bilateral meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on November 14 during his upcoming trip to Asia. (Reuters, 10/28/10)

II. Russia news.

Domestic Political, Social and Demographic News

A new poll shows the approval ratings of President Dmitry Medvedev edging closer to those of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who has been highly popular among Russians since first coming to power more than a decade ago. The poll by the respected Levada Center gives Medvedev an approval rating of 76 %, just below Putin's rating of 77 %. This is the closest the two of them have been in the monthly survey. (Reuters, 10/29/10).
Russian police uncovered 35,000 cases of corruption in the first nine months of this year, including alleged crimes by four deputy governors and five regional ministers. (Bloomberg, 10/27/10).
Corruption in Russia has grown even more blatant over the past year, according to a report issued Tuesday by Transparency International, and the country has fallen from 146th place to 154th on the organization's Corruption Perceptions Index. (Reuters, 10/26/10).
A Russian court handed down a life sentence and a prison term of 22 years on Thursday to two ultranationalists convicted of 15 racially motivated murders.
Moscow student Vasily Krivets, 22, was sentenced to life in prison for killing 15 people "on grounds of racial and national hatred," the court said. (Reuters, 10/28/10).
Earliest returns from the national census held from October 13 through to October 25 show a certain increase of Moscow City's population compared with the census held in 2002. (Itar-Tass, 10/27/10).
Jailed oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky said Wednesday that an embezzlement case against him was "utter rubbish" and urged that it be thrown it out as he made an impassioned, three-hour closing statement in his second trial. (AP, 10/27/10).
Last month the world supply of Viagra ads and other e-mail spam has dropped by an estimated one-fifth. Police officials in Russia, a major spam exporter, say they are trying to do their part to stem the flow. On Tuesday, police officials here announced a criminal investigation of a suspected spam kingpin, Igor A. Gusev. They said he had probably fled the country. (New York Times, 10/26/10).
Whistleblower website WikiLeaks, which has published hundreds of U.S. war logs, is preparing to release secret files from Russia and China. (RIA Novosti, 10/26/10).

Economy, and Energy:

Russia plans to build Vietnam's first nuclear power plant and buy BP Plc's assets in the Southeast Asian country as President Dmitry Medvedev travels on Saturday to Hanoi seeking to revive ties with the former Soviet ally. (Bloomberg, 10/29/10).
Russia's economy will grow at least 1.5 % to 2 % next year, said presidential adviser Arkady Dvorkovich. (Bloomberg, 10/29/10).

Defense policy:

Russia's experimental Bulava submarine-based ballistic missile in a practice flight today flew 3,700 miles and hit its target, marking the seventh successful test in 14 trials to date of the weapon. (GSN, 10/29/10).
Russia conducted successful trial launches of two submarine-based ballistic missiles - an SS-N-18 and a nuclear-capable Sineva missile. Russia also test-fired an RS-12M Topol ICBM from its Plesetsk Cosmodrome. (GSN, 10/28/10).

Security policy:

Russian Deputy Prosecutor-General Ivan Sydoruk says the number of extremist crimes committed in Russia's North Caucasus has grown fourfold this year compared to 2009. Thus far this year 205 people have been killed in 13 terrorist attacks in the North Caucasus Federal District. (RFE/RL, 10/28/10).
A car bomb and two police raids killed six people and wounded seven in Russia's volatile North Caucasus region on Saturday, authorities said. (Reuters, 10/23/10).
Russia plans to introduce a color-coded security alert system to help it tackle the country's growing terrorist threats, a government anti-terrorism advisor said on Wednesday. (Reuters, 10/27/10).

Foreign policy:

Russia's largest arms exporter Rosoboronexport expects to sell a record $10 billion worth of arms this year, its head said on Thursday, helped by clients seeking an alternative to U.S. weaponry. (Reuters, 10/28/10
Russia has called on Iraq not to carry out the death sentence on Tareq Aziz on humanitarian grounds. (Reuters, 10/27/10).

Russia's neighbors:

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has said that he hopes Azerbaijan and Armenia can reach agreement on the principles of a peace deal for the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh by early December. Medvedev was speaking after chairing talks between Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev in the southern Russian city of Astrakhan. (RFE/RL, 10/27/10).
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict cannot be considered frozen any more, Fiona Hill, expert on Russia and Eurasia at Brookings institute. According to her, Azerbaijan is actively getting ready for a new war. (Voice of America, 10/23/10).
Georgian police detained 20 people on suspicion of spying for Russia, Georgian security sources said on Friday. The detainees, all Georgian citizens, were suspected of creating a spy network in the ex-Soviet nation and delivering secret information to Russia. (Reuters, 10/28/10).
The International Monetary Fund has said that Kazakhstan's economy will grow by 5.4 % this year, exceeding the 4.0 % growth rate the fund had previously predicted. (RFE/RL, 10/28/10).