Russia in Review

An update from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of August 6-13, 2010.

A digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for the week of August 6-13, 2010

I. U.S. and Russia priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

Despite misgivings about Russia, Congress appears unlikely to block so-called 123 Agreement that would allow U.S. companies to export nuclear technology to America's former Cold War rival. The civil agreement has support from lawmakers from both parties whose districts include businesses that could benefit from U.S. nuclear exports to Russia. Barring congressional action, the agreement will take effect after 90 days in which Congress is in session. That would likely fall in October. (AP, 08/12/10).
Russia's Foreign Ministry released a report on Saturday accusing the United States of violating dozens of provisions of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons treaties going back about a decade, apparently in a retort to American critics of a new arms treaty, who have been accusing Russia of violating past agreements. (New York Times, 08/07/10).
Japan and Kazakhstan have agreed to promote cooperation helping the world be free of nuclear weapons. Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada and his Kazakh counterpart Kanat Saudabayev also agreed to accelerate cooperation in the development of natural resources and energy, including uranium, Japanese officials said. (Kyodo, 08/10/10).

Iran nuclear issues:

Rosatom spokesman Sergei Novikov said on Friday that this corporation will load fuel into Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant next week, on Aug. 21, beginning the startup process. ''From that moment the Bushehr plant will be officially considered a nuclear-energy installation,'' said Novikov. (AP, 08/13/10).
Russian oil company Lukoil has denied claims that it is supplying petroleum products to Iran despite UN sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic. (Interfax, 08/12/10).

NATO-Russia cooperation, including transit to Afghanistan:

No significant developments.

Counterterrorism cooperation:

A military exercise was performed to gauge how well Russian and North American air forces can work together in the event of a plane hijacking unfolded without a hitch. (CTV, 08/10/10).

Missile defense:

No significant developments.

Ratification of the New START treaty:

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stated on Tuesday that the full Senate must provide its advice and consent to ratification of the agreement when it returns in September."Our national security is at risk," Clinton said. "It's been more than eight months since we've had inspectors on the ground in Russia" who give "a vital window into Russia's arsenal." Clinton said she is confident the administration will win enough Republican votes in the Senate to ratify the treaty. (Nukes of Hazard, AP, 08/11/10).
"We all understand that September makes it very difficult," Senate's Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry told The Hill. "If we can't do it in September - and there's going to be a lot of reasons to do it in September - then we're going to keep pushing and maybe come back after the election and do it in a lame-duck." (The Hill, 08/09/10).

Energy exports from CIS:

No significant developments.

Access to major markets for exports and imports:

No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has announced he will travel to Russia to work with the country on developing its high-tech industry. (AP, 08/06/10).
Wendy's/Arby's Group plans to open 180 dual-branded Wendy's and Arby's restaurants in Russia over the next 10 years. (AP, 08/10/10).
Hewlett-Packard Co. said Thursday it was cooperating with U.S. and German authorities investigating allegations that three company executives used bribes to win a contract to sell computer gear to the Russian prosecutors' office. (AP, 08/13/10).

II. Russia news.

Fires and Drought

Russia's record heat wave may already have taken 15,000 lives and cost the economy $15 billion, or 1% of GDP, according to Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground, a 15-year-old Internet weather service that gathers information from around the world.
Andrei Seltsovsky, Moscow's health department chief, said the number of people dying daily in the city had risen to 700 from the usual average of between 360 and 380 per day.
As of Friday 500 fires were continuing to burn on 65,000 hectares of land across the country and 14,000 firefighters are battling blazes around Moscow alone.
Drought emergency have been declared in 29 regions of Russia.
A fire raging dangerously close to Russia's main nuclear research center in Sarov expanded to an area of 1,000 hectares on Friday. Rosatom Corporation earlier this week said that the radioactive and explosive materials were moved back to this birthplace of Soviet nuclear weapons after the fire situation had stabilized.
The Russian firm RosRao said its 17 atomic waste storage sites were not in danger from blazes that have killed more than 50 people around the country.
Fires have also blazed in neighboring Ukraine, with the emergency services working to put out a two-hectare peat bog fire 60 kilometers from Chernobyl.
Vasily Tuzov, a deputy head of the federal forest protection service, said wildfires engulfed a total of some 9,600 acres (3,900 hectares) in several regions of Russia hit by the Chernobyl fallout, including the Bryansk region, but most of them have been extinguished.
Wildfires threatened to stir radioactive particles left over from the 1986 Chernobyl disaster back into the air over western Russia, said Vladimir Chuprov of Russian Greenpeace. "There is no need to sow panic," Russian Chief Sanitary Inspector Gennadi Onishchenko said in response to concerns raised by Greenpeace.
The national weather service dispatched a team to constantly monitor the radiation level in the western Bryansk region, the area of Russia that suffered most from the Chernobyl catastrophe.
Radiation levels have been within 9-12 micro-Roentgens per hour in the vicinity of the Novovoronezh nuclear power plant, and near Sarov and Snezhinsk, the sites of two federal nuclear centers, over the past two weeks, which corresponds to the natural radiation.
The drought has damaged the Russian economy by an estimated $15 billion.
VTB Capital said the drought may shave nearly a full percentage point off Russia's 2010 economic growth forecast of around 4%.
Drought has destroyed a quarter of Russia's grain crop this year, President Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday.
SovEcon, a leading agricultural analyst, said on Monday that Russia's wheat crop might be about one-third smaller than last year's, dropping to 43 million tons from 61.7 million tons in 2009.
Prices for buckwheat have risen by 7% and flour by 2.4% in the past week in Russia.
Russia's anti-monopoly warned that companies that engage in "unjustified" price hikes could face fines of up to 15% of their total annual sales volume.
In a phone call with his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, US President Barack Obama said USAID, the Department of Defense, the Forest Service, and California were mobilizing firefighting equipment to help Russia. The U.S began sending deliveries of firefighting equipment valued at $2.5 million on Friday.
Non-essential staff of the U.S. embassy have been given permission to leave the country.
Russia has seen the longest unprecedented heat wave for at least 1,000 years, the head of the Russian Meteorological Center said on Monday.

(Wall Street Journal, 08/13/10; AP, Wall Street Journal, AFP, Ukrainian General Newswire, 08/13/10; Financial Times, Bloomberg, 08/12/10; GSN, AP, 08/11/10; Foreign Policy, Bloomberg, 08/10/10).

Politics, Economy, and Energy:

Support for Russia's president and prime minister has fallen to its lowest point in several years according to a recent poll. The survey conducted by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) showed that trust in President Dmitry Medvedev has dropped from 44% in January to 39% in August, while trust in Prime Minister Vladimir Putin dropped from 53% to 47% in the same period. (RIA Novosti, 08/09/10).
Prime Minister Putin's fight against corruption and bribery in Russia is the biggest failure of his decade in power, according to a poll by the Levada Center. Given a list of Putin's possible failures, 37% of respondents named the struggle with corruption, 24% the taming of billionaires and 18% the fight against crime. Putin's main successes were improving relations with the West, picked by 23% of respondents; improving living standards, 20%; and strengthening Russia's international prestige, 19%. (Bloomberg, 08/12/10).
Compared to similar studies, the number of opponents to the appointment of governors has grown 5% since the beginning of the year. (Interfax, 08/08/10).

Defense policy:

The Northern Fleet nuclear submarine the Tula on Friday simultaneously fired two intercontinental ballistic missiles from the Barents Sea at the Kura firing range in Kamchatka. (Interfax, 08/09/10).
Test launch of the Bulava submarine-launched inter-continental ballistic missile that was scheduled for mid-August has been postponed by at least two weeks, (Interfax, 08/09/10).
Russian navy ships were flying flags at half-mast on Thursday and memorial ceremonies are being held across the nation to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the Kursk nuclear submarine disaster. (AP, 08/12/10).

Security policy:

The contradictory statements posted to the Internet earlier this month in which Chechen rebel leader Doku Umarov first announced and then retracted his decision to step down as commander of the North Caucasus insurgency have resulted in a split in its ranks. While the leaders of the Ingushetia and Dagestan fronts have formally reaffirmed their loyalty to Umarov, his fellow Chechen field commanders have announced that they are rescinding their oath of loyalty in light of the lack of respect for them implied by his volte-face. (Radio Free Europe, 08/13/10).
Chechen rebel leader Umarov claimed responsibility on Thursday for a small explosion three days ago near the Moscow headquarters of Russia's state-controlled gas giant Gazprom. (Reuters, 08/12/10).
A first step in President Dmitry Medvedev's reform of the police force will be to replace its Bolshevik-imposed name "militia" with the tsarist-era "police." (Moscow Times, 08/09/10).

Foreign policy:

No significant developments.

Russia's neighbors:

President Medvedev visited Abkhazia to defend Moscow's recognition of the breakaway republic Sunday, two years after a war with Georgia over the territory and nearby South Ossetia.
The Russian government on Friday said it would donate nearly $330 million to the two breakaway regions next year to build roads and power plants, while asking South Ossetia and Abkhazia to model their economic legislation after Russia's.
Commander of the Russian Air Force General Alexander Zelin said on Wednesday Russia had deployed S-300 high-precision air defense missiles in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia, sending a defiant signal to Tbilisi and the West two years after a war with Georgia.
"The task of these air defenses is not only to cover the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia but also to avert violations of their state borders in the air and destroy any vehicle illegally penetrating their air space, whatever the goal of its mission," Zelin said.

(Reuters, 08/12/10, Moscow Times, 08/09/10).

The revelation that Russia is deploying S-300 air defense missiles to the Georgian territory of Abkhazia is not news, said State Department's spokesman P.J. Crowley. (Foreign Policy, 08/13/10).
The number of enthusiasts of Abkhazia and South Ossetia's swift accession to Russia has shrunk to 15% compared to 20% in 2008, Levada Center told Interfax after polling 1,600 citizens in 45 Russian regions. The share of those who think this step must be carefully weighed has increased to 30% from 25% in 2008. (Interfax, 08/06/10).
The United States is planning to move ahead with construction of a $10 million military training base in Osh, Kyrgyzstan, the site of a bloody uprising in June against the new government that reportedly left more than 300 dead. Called the Osh Polygon, the base was first proposed under former Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev as a facility to train Kyrgyz troops for counterterrorism operations. (Washington Post, 08/07/10).
Ukraine has received bids from both Russia`s TVEL and U.S.-based Westinghouse for a fuel manufacturing facility. This follows a tender quickly issued earlier this year after the election of President Viktor Yanukovych. (World Nuclear News, 08/07/10).