Russia in Review

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security:

Russia’s new national security strategy, which President Vladimir Putin signed on December 31st, lists“activities of terrorist and extremist organizations, aimed at forcible change of the constitutional system of the Russian Federation as well as destabilizing the work of the organs of state power… through acquisition of weapons of mass destruction, radioactive , poisonous, toxic, chemically and biologically hazardous substances as well as through acts of nuclear terrorism, breaches of security and sustainability of the critical informational infrastructure of the Russian Federation” among threats to Russia’s state and public security. (Belfer Center, 01.04.16).
New robots under development for Russia's Strategic Missile Forces are to be entrusted with guarding missile complexes. Mounted on a crawler, the Wolf-2 mobile robotic system is capable of carrying out practically any combat mission: from patrolling the programmed territory and conducting reconnaissance assignments to guarding important objects and supporting the tactical group with fire. (RBTH, 12.28.15).
The International Atomic Energy Agency has announced "another achievement in global nuclear non-proliferation efforts," with the shipment of high enriched uranium (HEU) from the Republic of Georgia. The 1.83 kg of HEU was removed from the Breeder-1 Neutron Source at the Tbilisi State University to a secure storage facility in Russia. (World Nuclear News, 12.23.15).
In 2015, PA Mayak’s Radiochemical Plant in Russia has reprocessed more than 200 tons of spent nuclear fuel. In previous years the plant reprocessed no more than 130 tons of SNF per year. (Nuclear.ru, 12.30.15).
In 2015, NNSA worked with foreign partners to remove approximately 130 kilograms of HEU and plutonium from several civilian sites, including Kazakhstan, Switzerland, and Uzbekistan. As a result, Uzbekistan and Switzerland are now included in a total of 28 countries, plus Taiwan, free of all HEU through the work of NNSA. In 2015, NNSA also successfully down-blended additional HEU to achieve a cumulative total of 150 metric tons of U.S. excess, weapons-usable HEU - approximately 6,000 nuclear weapons worth of material. NNSA also recovered more than 250,000 curies of disused or orphaned radioactive material, and completing security enhancements at 80 international and 50 domestic buildings. (NNSA, Undated).
The U.S. Department of Energy has made an initial decision to prepare 6 metric tons of surplus plutonium to be disposed of as nuclear waste. The decision is of note as it comes at a time when the fate of plutonium fuel (MOX) project at the Savannah River Site is uncertain. (IPFM Blog, 01.06.16).
Japan will send 331 kilograms of plutonium -- enough to produce 50 nuclear bombs -- to the United States as part of a deal to return the material that was used for research. (AFP, 01.05.16).
U.S. President Barack Obama invited Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to attend 4th Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C. in March 2016. (Trend, 01.06.16).

Iran nuclear issues:

Iran sent a major shipment of low-enriched uranium materials to Russia, a key step in Tehran's implementation of the 2015 historic nuclear accord with world powers. Mark Toner, the US State Department spokesman, described the cargo as a 12.5 ton "combination of forms of low-enriched uranium materials" including 5 and 20 percent enriched uranium, scrap metal, and unfinished fuel plates. (Al Jazeera, 12.28.15).

NATO-Russia relations:

Russia’s new national security strategy, which President Vladimir Putin signed on December 31st, asserts that “the strengthening of NATO’s forceful potential and allocation of global functions to this organization carried out in violation of international law, the intensification of military activities of this alliance, further expansion of the alliance, bringing of its military infrastructure closer to Russian borders pose a threat to the national security.” At the same time, the doctrine says that Russia “is ready to develop relations with NATO on the basis of equality in order to enhance security for all in the Euro-Atlantic region.” (Belfer Center, 01.04.16).
NATO and the United States are denying that the alliance's expansion into Eastern Europe and increased activity there poses any menace to Russia, as Moscow asserted in its new security doctrine. "We are not looking for conflict with Russia," Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis told reporters in Washington. "They have no reason to consider us a threat," he said. "We have our differences...but it's fundamentally wrong to look at the United States as a threat to Russia." (RFE/RL, 01.06.16).
The U.S. Navy's top officer released a new plan on Tuesday to stay ahead of potential adversaries at sea. In the plan, Adm. John M. Richardson specifically lists the actions of Russia and China as points of concern, along with the provocative actions of North Korea and the advanced missiles and proxy forces utilized by Iran in the Middle East. (Washington Post, 01.06.16).

Missile defense:

No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

Russia and the United States agree that Islamic State, al-Qaeda and Jabhat al-Nusra are terrorist organizations, but do not even discuss how to define Hezbollah and Hamas, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said. (Interfax, 12.29.15).
“We have not received any proposals from NATO to restore interaction as part of the fight against terrorism," Russia's Permanent Representative to NATO, Alexander Grushko, said. (Interfax, 01.04.16).
Russia’s new national security strategy, which President Vladimir Putin signed on December 31st, asserts that “emergence of the terrorist organization, which has declared that its name is “Islamic State,” and strengthening of its influence is the result of the policy of double standards, which some states pursue in the fight against terrorism.” (Belfer Center, 01.04.16).
The Russian Interior Ministry in collaboration with the country's security service, the FSB, is following the movements of more than 2,800 Russians who had left the country to fight with the Islamists in Syria and Iraq. A total of 889 of those who returned have already been named in criminal cases. Moreover, the special services have identified 92 recruiters working for banned foreign armed groups. According to FSB director Alexander Bortnikov, in 2015 the special services have prevented some 100 people from leaving the country in order to join militant groups. (RBC, 12.28.16).
Alexander Bortnikov, the head of Russia's Federal Security Service, said Russia had identified groups behind the explosion of a Russian airliner over Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, killing all 224 on board. ( RFE/RL, 12.25.15).
The Islamic State extremist group has claimed responsibility for a shooting attack late December 29 that killed one person at a historic citadel in Russia's North Caucasus region of Dagestan. (RFE/RL, 12.31.15).
One of three suspected rebels killed in fighting in the North Caucasus was trained by "terrorists" in Syria, Russian authorities said December 24. The rebels were killed on December 22 in the Kabardino-Balkaria region, the national antiterrorist committee said. (RFE/RL, 12.25.15).
Khudoberdi Kholiknazar, the chairman of the Center for Strategic Research, part of the administration of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, said an estimated 600 Tajik citizens have joined Islamic State. (Wall Street Journal, 01.03.16).
An Uzbek refugee will spend 25 years in jail and afterwards be deported for planning an attack on a U.S. military academy, a U.S. judge ruled on January 7. Prosecutors said Fazliddin Kurbanov is a jihadist who communicated with a terrorist organization, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, stockpiled bomb-making equipment, and planned to attack U.S. military targets, in particular the West Point Military Academy in New York. (RFE/RL, 01.08.16).
Uzbek jihadist group Imam Bukhari Jamaat based in Syria is publicizing the training of children to wage jihad. (Long War Journal, 12.29.15).

Cyber security:

U.S. cyber intelligence firm iSight Partners said it is certain that a Russian hacking group known as Sandworm caused last month's unprecedented power outage in Ukraine. Ukraine’s state security service has blamed Russia for the blackout affecting 80,000 customers in western Ukraine on December 23. No one was available at the Russian Embassy in Washington to comment. (RFE/RL, 01.08.16.Washinton Post, 01.06.16).
The Russian Foreign Ministry has called an "abuse of rights" the decision by the Finnish Foreign Ministry to extradite two Russian citizens, Maxim Senakh and Alexander Sergeyev, to the United States to stand trial in that country. The two men were arrested earlier by the Finnish authorities at the U.S. request and placed under arrest on cyber crime charges. (Interfax, 01.08.16).
A social network account belonging to Russia's communications minister Nikolai Nikiforov has been blocked briefly by hackers identifying themselves as a Turkish activist group. (RFE/RL, 12.04.15).

Energy exports from CIS:

No significant developments.

Bilateral economic ties:

No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a new national-security strategy accusing the United States of trying to “contain” Russia through “political, economic, military, and informational pressure” and blaming Washington for the war in Ukraine. At the same time, the doctrine says Russia “is interested in building a full-fledged partnership with the United States on the basis of shared interests. “The most important directions of development of this (Russian-U.S.) partnership should be improving the mechanisms, which the international treaties on arms control provide for; taking confidence-building measures, expanding issues related to non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, expansion of cooperation in the fight against terrorism, and resolution of regional conflicts,” according to the document. (RFE/RL, 12.31.15, Belfer Center, 01.04.16).
Top U.S. intelligence and national security officials have warned that the United States' depth of knowledge and capacity for collecting information on Russia are not up to snuff. "We've been surprised at every turn," said Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.). "We were surprised when they went into Crimea, we were surprised when they went into Syria." Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, said there has been some "atrophy" in the government's Russia expertise since the Cold War, a trend that needs to be reversed. (Washington Post, 12.30.15).
Russia is accusing the United States of mistreating convicted drug smuggler Konstantin Yaroshenko by not giving him needed medical assistance. Konstantin Dolgov, the Russian Foreign Ministry's commissioner for human rights, told TASS that Russia lodged a complaint about Yaroshenko's health needs, which include a heart condition, with the U.S. Embassy in Moscow on November 12, and has received no response.( RFE/RL, 12.25.15).
American weapons receipts rose to $36.2 billion in 2014 from $26.7 billion the year before, a new congressional study has found. Russia followed the United States as the top weapons supplier, completing $10.2 billion in sales. (New York Times, 12.26.15).
An inert U.S. Hellfire missile sent to Europe for training purposes was wrongly shipped from there to Cuba in 2014, said people familiar with the matter. This particular missile didn't contain explosives, but U.S. officials worry that Cuba could share the sensors and targeting technology inside it with nations like China, North Korea or Russia, these people said. (Wall Street Journal, 01.07.16).
While the U.S. led defaults in 2015 with 66 issuers (59% of the global total), Brazil and Russia followed with eight defaults (7% of the global total) and seven (6% of the global total), respectively–the second- and third-highest default tallies of all other countries. (Financial Times, 01.05.16).
A U.S. appeals court on Tuesday revived long-running litigation by a state-run Russian company that says it owns U.S. trademark rights for Stolichnaya vodka. (Reuters, 01.06.16).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

The ruble has dropped most among emerging-market currencies. Russia’s currency fell 1.9 percent to 74.65 against the dollar on Wednesday in Moscow, bringing its loss in the last 12 months to almost 18 percent. Brent crude, used to price the nation’s main export blend, declined 4.4 percent to $34.78 a barrel, an 11-year low. On December 30th, the ruble down 20% compared to a year ago. (Bloomberg, 01.06.16, USA Today, 12.31.15).
According to The Economist’s latest Big Mac index, the Russian ruble is one of the cheapest currencies around, 69% undervalued against the dollar. (The Economist, 01.08.16).
Year-to-date, Russian sovereigns have returned 31.85 per cent while Ukrainian government bonds have returned 37.9 per cent. (Financial Times, 12.23.15).
Alexei Kudrin, head of the Civil Initiatives Committee and former finance minister, said he believes Russia has not yet passed the peak of its economic problems.” If the price (of oil) stays at this level for another half year or a year, the economic decline will continue," Kudrin said. (RBTH, 12.28.15).
Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom has changed the name of its subsidiary JSC Rusatom Overseas to JSC Rusatom Energy International. (World Nuclear News, 12.31.15).
Russia's Techsnabexport (Tenex) has said that it expects the value of its exports tin 2015to outstrip that of 2014 by $500 million. The Rosatom subsidiary's preliminary results for 2015 indicate that its revenue from the global market will be worth about $2.7 billion. (World Nuclear News, 12.30.15).
The domestic tourism flow can amount to around 50 million people in 2015, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said. "Last year we have set a record. Over 20 million foreign guests visited us," Medvedev said. (Interfax, 01.05.16).

Defense and Aerospace:

In October 2015 representatives of the Russian United Instrument Manufacturing Corporation announced the completion of an automated control system for groups of robotic resources named Unicum. This system, according to its developers, provides for a full exclusion of the human being from the control process while giving the mechanism almost human possibilities. In the future the robots will even be able to launch ballistic missiles. (RBTH, 12.28.15).
A statement posted on the Kremlin website on January 4 said that head of Russia's military intelligence agency General Igor Sergun, 58, had suffered a "sudden death," but gave no details as to the cause, timing, or circumstances. The state-run news agency TASS said he died on January 3. (RFE/RL, 01.04.16).
The EKS-1 – the first such satellite of the unified space-based ballistic missile warning system launched late last year — is currently undergoing trials in orbit by the Russian Aerospace Defense Forces. (Sputnik, 01.08.16).
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin has called the forthcoming launch of a Soyuz rocket from the Vostochny spaceport and the maiden flight of the MS-21 passenger airliner the most important events of 2016. (Interfax, 01.03.16).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has given the state intelligence service the authority to use weapons in crowds and fire at women and children under certain circumstances. (RFE/RL, 12.31.15).
Ultranationalists killed 9 and injured 68 people in 17 regions of Russia in 2015, Russia’s NGO Sova told Interfax. (Belfer Center, 01.04.16).
Russia's top investigative body has brought final murder charges against four men for the slaying of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. (RFE/RL, 12.29.15).
A Russian court has sentenced a blogger to five years in a Siberian penal colony for "inciting hatred and extremism" after he criticized Russian intervention in Ukraine and, separately, accused local authorities of corruption and incompetence. (RFE/RL, 12.31.15).
The body of Khizir Yezhiyev, a teacher of economics at Grozny State Oil Technical University, was found late on January 1 in Chechnya’s Urus Martan district. Students at the university said they saw Yezhiyev being detained by law enforcement officials in Grozny on December 19. But Chechnya’s Interior Ministry did not confirm that he had been detained and his whereabouts had remained unknown. (RFE/RL, 01.04.16).

Foreign affairs and trade:

Syria:
- Russia's air force made 5,240 sorties between Sept. 30 and Dec.25, Russia's defense ministry said.(Reuters, 10.25.15).
- The head of the most powerful Syrian insurgent group in the rebel-held suburbs of Damascus was killed in a Russian air strike on the secret headquarters of his group, rebel sources said. The Syrian army confirmed the death of Zahran Alloush, whose Jaysh al Islam grouping has thousands of fighters and is the biggest rebel faction in the area. (Reuters, 12.26.15).
- U.S. State Department spokesman Mark Toner cited recent "extremely disturbing" reports by nongovernmental groups describing Russian air strikes that killed hundreds of civilians. Moscow has denied reports from Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and Syrian rights groups that its air campaign is hitting civilians. (RFE/RL, 12.30.15).
- Russian open-source blogger Ruslan Leviev and the Conflict Intelligence Team say they have documented more evidence that Russia is using cluster bombs in its air campaign supporting Syria’s embattled regime. Russia has denied using such munitions.(RFE/RL, 01.07.16).
Other countries:
- A reported successful test of a hydrogen bomb by North Korea would amount to a gross violation of international law if confirmed, Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday. The Kremlin is worried about North Korea's announcement that it had carried out the hydrogen bomb test, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday. Admiral Vladimir Komoyedov, the head of the State Duma’s defense committee, called news of North Korea's bomb test "frightening," and said that the nuclear potential of the country must be put under international control. Alexei Pushkov, the head of the State Duma committee on international affairs, believes that negotiations involving leading countries similar to the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear problem should be organized to settle the North Korea problem. The United Nations Security Council condemned North Korea for its nuclear test on Wednesday.(Moscow Times, 01.07.16,Interfax, 01.06.16, New York Times, 01.06.16).
- Russia and India have signed agreements boosting cooperation in energy and defense. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would build six nuclear blocks in India in 20 years. Visiting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the number of Russian-built reactors in Kudankulam and at another site would eventually rise to 12. Russia and India will also together build multi-task Kamov-226 helicopters, Modi said. (Reuters, 12.25.15).
- Russia expanded sanctions against Turkey in order to stop new development by Turkish companies in Russia, and slow down Turkey's tourism efforts in country as well. Exemptions were made for some skyscrapers, soccer stadiums and other projects. Russia is the largest market for Turkish exports after Germany, with about $6 billion worth of goods in 2014, or 4 percent of all exports. (New York Times, 12.31.15).
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with leader of Turkey's Kurdish political party Selahattin Demirtas, who joined Moscow in criticizing Ankara for shooting down a Russian warplane last month. ( RFE/RL, 12.25.15).
- Zamir Kabulov, a Foreign Ministry department head and President Vladimir Putin's special representative for Afghanistan, said that Russia was exchanging information with the Taliban. Kabulov, told the Interfax news agency that "the Taliban interest objectively coincides with ours" in the fight against the Islamic State. Kabulov also said that Russia is ready "to show flexibility" on the possible easing of sanctions imposed on Afghanistan's Taliban movement by the United Nations Security Council, (Reuters, 12.29.15, Washington Post, 12.23.15).
- The Taliban has denied that it held talks with Russian officials about efforts to combat Islamic State (IS) militants in Afghanistan as a British newspaper reported that President Vladimir Putin had met the group's leader earlier. (RFE/RL, 12.27.15).
- Russia and Japan will begin preparations for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s 2016 visit to a Russian region with deputy foreign minister-level talks in February 2016. (NHK news, RBTH, 12.30.15).

Russia's neighbors:

Ukraine:
- The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany agreed on Dec. 30 to extend efforts to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine, acknowledging that the terms of a complex cease-fire agreement will not be fully carried out by the Dec. 31 deadline. In a conference call, Presidents Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine, François Hollande of France, and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany called for the Minsk peace agreement, which was signed in February, to be carried out in full in 2016. (New York Times, 12.31.15).
- In Eastern Ukraine locals told the OSCE that armed rebels had entered Kominternove on December 22, leaving two days later before the arrival of international observers. A high-ranking Ukrainian security official told AFP on condition of anonymity that the rebel presence in Kominternove was "retaliation" for the Ukrainian army's operation in Pavlopil. Both sides are trying to take control of villages -- long neglected because of their limited strategic value -- that fall under their respective jurisdictions according to the Minsk agreements, the official said. (AFP, 01.05.16).
- Dutch prosecutors are investigating a claim by citizen-journalist group Bellingcat that at least 20 Russian soldiers were involved in the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014. (RFE/RL, 01.05.16).
- Ukraine's parliament approved a 2016 budget, meeting a condition needed to unlock further bailout aid from the International Monetary Fund. The move on Dec. 25th followed a weeklong standoff in Ukraine's fragile coalition government that has delayed $2 billion of its $17 billion IMF bailout. (Wall Street Journal, 12.26.15).
- Russia will file a lawsuit against Ukraine, the Russian finance ministry said, after Kiev failed to repay a $3 billion Eurobond and $75 million in interest by Dec. 31. The decision was expected as Russia had repeatedly said it would regard nonpayment as a default and file a lawsuit. (New York Times, 01.02.16).
- A Ukrainian oligarch fleeced of assets in Crimea valued in the hundreds of millions of dollars is taking Russia to court. Ihor Kolomoyskiy says he was unfairly deprived of his right to operate a civilian airport in Crimea after Russia illegally annexed the peninsula in March 2014. (RFE/RL, 01.08.16).
- The port city of Genichevsk in Ukraine's Kherson region has begun to receive Russian gas supplies, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak said. Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed that Russia consider providing the Ukrainian city with Russian gas supplies. In the meantime, Crimea will experience power shortages until at least May, the Kremlin-appointed government of the region announced. A Kremlin spokesman said January 1 that President Putin will not renew the contract with Ukraine to deliver electricity to the peninsula, which expired on New Year's Day, as long as Kyiv keeps insisting on stipulating in the contract that the peninsula belongs to Ukraine. (New York Times, 01.09.16, Reuters, 01.05.16, RFE/RL, 01.02.16).
- Russia will discount its previous gas price of $230 per 1,000 cubic meters (TCM) for Ukraine by $17.8, bringing it to $212.2 per TCM, an official Russian government notice said January 1. Ukraine's Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn previously said Ukraine was ready to buy Russian gas in the first quarter of 2016 if the price was reduced to under $200 per TCM. (RFE/RL, 01.02.16).
- A survey by Gallup shows that Ukrainians gave their lives in 2015 the worst ratings that the opinion pollster has yet measured in the country. The survey published on January 4 indicates that on a ladder scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10, with 10 being the best possible life, Ukrainians on average rated their current lives at 4.0 (RFE/RL, 01.05.16).
- Only 7% of Ukrainians say they saw an improvement in the fight against corruption since then, according to a September poll by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems. Only 5% say the new government has addressed the issues, including corruption, that drove the revolution. (Wall Street Journal, 01.03.16).
Other neighbors:
- Lawmakers in the former Soviet republic of Georgia approved former Foreign Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili as the country’s new prime minister amid increasing public dissatisfaction with the government. (New York Times, 12.31.15).
- Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has signed into law a bill that gives him the title "Leader of the Nation" and grants him lifelong immunity from prosecution.
- (RFE/RL, 12.25.15).
- Moscow takes the intensified activity of the United States, the EU and China in Central Asian countries in stride and is prepared for constructive cooperation, Russian State Secretary - Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin has said. (Interfax, 01.03.16).
- An Azerbaijani court has sentenced prominent journalist Rauf Mirkadirov to six years in prison for spying for Armenia, in a case that is seen as a continuation of Baku's recent crackdown on political dissent. (RFE/RL, 12.28.15).

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