Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for January 18-23, 2015
I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.
Nuclear security:
- The non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is a global challenge and, therefore, the response has to be global, according to Róman Oyarzun Marchesi, chair of the Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 1540 (2004). In the debate that followed Marchesi’s statement, Russian envoy Vladimir K. Safronkov noted that the resolution obliged all States to establish national control systems to prevent weapons of mass destruction and related material from being acquired by non-State entities. That was of crucial importance, as regional conflicts were being exploited by terrorists, a point confirmed by the challenge posed by the “Islamic State” and others in Syria and Iraq, he said. U.S. envoy Samantha Power stated that few efforts were more important than preventing weapons of mass destruction from falling into terrorist hands. (ForeignAffairs.co.nz, 12.23.15).
- The International Panel on Fissile Materials has released Global Fissile Material Report 2015. The global stockpile of HEU at the end of 2014 was about 1370 ± 125 tons, enough for more than 76,000 simple, first generation fission implosion weapons. About 99 percent of this material is held by the nuclear weapon states, mostly by Russia and the United States. In 2015, the global stockpile of nuclear weapons was estimated at over 15,800 weapons, with the United States and Russia together holding about 14,700 of these weapons and the other seven nuclear weapon states holding a combined total of about 1100 weapons. (IPFM, 12.21.15).
- President of the United States Barack Obama has invited the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev to attend Nuclear Security Summit which is to be held in 2016 in Washington. (MENAFI, 12.23.15).
Iran nuclear issues:
- Iran will export most of its enriched uranium to Russia in the coming days as it rushes to implement a nuclear deal and secure relief from international sanctions, Tehran's nuclear chief was quoted as saying on Saturday. "In the next few days, around nine tons of Iran's enriched uranium will be exported to Russia," nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi was quoted as saying by state news agency IRNA. That is roughly the amount that Iran must export to bring its stock down to the required level. (WP, 12.20.15).
- Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for Iran's Atomic Energy Agency, says Russia will begin building two nuclear power reactors in Iran next week, under a deal signed last year between subsidiaries of the countries' atomic energy agencies. (VOA, 12.22.15).
NATO-Russia relations:
- No significant developments.
Missile defense:
- No significant developments.
Nuclear arms control:
- No significant developments.
Counter-terrorism:
- No significant developments.
Cyber security:
- No significant developments.
Energy exports from CIS:
- Russia's Energy Minister Alexander Novak said domestic oil production could fall in 2017 if Moscow continues its punitive taxation on the industry. Russia imposes a 42% tax on oil exports and recently reversed a decision to cut the levy to 36%. (WSJ, 12.22.15).
- Russia warned December 21 that any move by the European Union to cancel the Nord Stream gas pipeline from Russia's Baltic coast to Germany would only hurt Europe. (RFE/RL, 12.22.15).
- The president of Turkmenistan says the completion of a new gas pipeline will boost cooperation with European partners. The East-West pipeline connects Turkmenistan’s gas fields in the east to its Caspian coast. It is hoped the $2.5 billion project will one day be linked to the proposed Trans-Caspian pipeline (TCP). (RFE/RL, 12.23.15).
- The $1.1 trillion spending package -- that the U.S. Congress passed on December 18 -- lifts a 42-year-old ban on exporting crude oil from U.S. (RFE/RL, 12.18.15).
Bilateral economic ties:
- The U.S. energy corporation ConocoPhillips has sold its stake in a joint venture with Russian state-owned oil giant Rosneft, leaving the country after more than 25 years. (MT, 12.22.15).
- The Russian private commercial satellite company Dauria Aerospace has completed its first deal to sell two of its satellites to a U.S. firm, the RIA Novosti news agency reported Tuesday The two Dauria Aerospace's Perseus-M satellites operating in the orbit, as well as necessary licenses for using the technology, were purchased by the U.S.-based company Aquila Space. (MT, 12.22.15).
- Media Alliance, a joint venture of Russia’s National Media Group and Discovery Communications Inc., agreed to broadcast Turner Broadcasting System Inc.’s channels in the country to help comply with local legislation. (Bloomberg, 12.23.15).
- Russian tycoon Mikhail Prokhorov completed his acquisition of the Brooklyn Nets, a U.S. basketball team, along with the Barclays Center where the team plays. The team is valued at $875 million and the arena is valued at $825 million, making the deal worth $1.7 billion. (RFE/RL, 12.23.15).
Other bilateral issues:
- The Obama administration slapped fresh sanctions on Ukrainian and Russian businessmen and politicians close to President Vladimir Putin, a move that was designed to show support for Kiev but could undercut U.S. efforts to cooperate with Moscow on ending the Syrian war. The administration described the actions as "maintenance sanctions" aimed at including subsidiaries of entities that have already been sanctioned and at responding to steps that individuals and companies have taken to sidestep the sanctions. The most politically significant measures targeted companies controlled by people in Mr. Putin's inner circle, including Gennady Timchenko and the Rotenberg brothers, Boris and Arkady. (WSJ, 12.23.15).
- The $1.1 trillion spending package -- that the U.S. Congress passed on December 18 --effectively lifts a ban on the Russian rocket engine that powers United Launch Alliance’s Atlas 5 rocket at least until Oct. 1. (Space News, 12.16.15, RFE/RL, 12.18.15).
- After years of delay, the United States approved reforms boosting the power of major emerging countries like China, Russia and India at the International Monetary Fund. The reforms will raise the status of Brazil, China, India, and Russia, putting them among the IMF's top 10 shareholders and giving them more influence at the global lender. (RFE/RL, 12.20.15).
- Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump continued to tout praise from Russia's Vladimir Putin saying, "Wouldn't it be nice if ... Russia and us could knock out an enemy together?" Trump said Saturday that anyone who criticizes the warm compliments he has swapped with Putin is simply "jealous as hell." (WP, 12.19.15).
- The Kremlin expressed regret in relation to the remarks of U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush which concern President Vladimir Putin. U.S. Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush said during a presidential debate that he does not see Putin as an ally of the United States, and expressed regret that the U.S. is losing influence around the world while Russia is gaining influence. (Interfax, 12.21.15).
- Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) calls for focusing on the Islamic State. He favors forging a grand coalition — including Russia — to take out the Islamic State. Hillary Clinton agrees that Arab forces should lead the ground war but insists that we take on both Assad and the Islamic State, mortal enemies of each other, at the same time. She rejects a grand coalition with Russia against the Islamic State. Instead, she proposes creating a "no- fly zone" in Syria. (WP, 12.22.15).
- Barack Obama is the most highly regarded leader, according to a survey of 64,000 people in 65 countries by WIN/Gallup International. Three in five people (59 per cent) have a favorable view of the US President, while one in three (29 per cent) views him unfavorably. President Obama and Vladimir Putin are by far the most recognized leaders on the global stage. Although the Russian President is popular in his own country, with a net rating of plus 72 points, he is unloved in other parts of the world, with an overall net score of minus 10 points. (The Independent, 12.21.15).
- Seychelles imprisons 799 out of every 100,000 of its people. (It doesn't actually have 100,000 residents, by the way.) The U.S. imprisons 698 -- more than Turkmenistan (4th), Cuba (6th), El Salvador (7th) and Russia (11th), according to the U.K.'s Institute for Criminal Policy Research. U.S. houses 2.2 of the world's 10.4 million prisoners. (WP, 12.18.15).
II. Russia news.
Domestic politics, economy and energy:
- No significant developments.
Defense and Aerospace:
- President Vladimir Putin says Russia will continue to develop nuclear weapons but doesn't intend to use them. “Russia as a leading nuclear country will be improving this weapon as a containment factor; the nuclear triad is the basis of our nuclear security polices," he said. “We have never brandished or will brandish this nuclear club, but our military doctrine allocates it a place and role," he said, according to excerpts reported by the state news agency Tass. (RFE/RL, 12.20.15).
Security, law-enforcement and justice:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin Saturday hailed the country's secret services for foiling around 30 planned terrorist attacks and uncovering more than 320 foreign spies in 2015.(AFP, 12.19.15).
- Russian court Wednesday issued a ruling to arrest former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky in absentia. Earlier this month, Mr. Khodorkovsky said that Russian investigators had issued a summons to him amid an investigation into a 1998 killing in Siberia. (WSJ, 12.23.15).
- Armed Russian police have raided the offices of a pro-democracy group founded by exiled Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky and searched the homes of several of its employees. (RFE/RL, 12.22.15).
- Russia's lower house of parliament has approved a bill letting Federal Security Service (FSB) officers shoot at crowds, as well as at women and children under certain conditions, the Slon.Ru news portal reported Tuesday.(MT, 12.22.15).
Foreign affairs and trade:
- Syria:
- The U.N. Security Council on Friday unanimously approved a resolution endorsing a peace process that is designed to end Syria's civil war. But although the resolution gave Security Council backing to an 18-month process for negotiations between the Syrian government and its opponents to establish a cease-fire and determine the parameters of a transitional government, write a constitution and hold elections, it turned implementation over to the United Nations. The agreement made no mention of the future of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The resolution instructs U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura to guide the Syrian government and opposition groups toward negotiations to begin as early as next month The Security Council vote came after more than five hours of separate talks Friday among a group of more than a dozen nations, the International Syrian Support Group, to hammer out the terms. (WP, 12.20.15).
- President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia’s armed forces have not utilized their full capability in Syria and would use “more military means” there if necessary. "These are by far not all of our capabilities," he added. "We have more military means. And we will use them, if need be." (RFE/RL, 12.20.15).
- Moscow is ready to actively cooperate with all the forces, which are fighting "on the land" in Syria against the ISIS, including with the Kurds, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. (RBTH, 12.23.15).
- Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's plane will be escorted by four Russian fighter jets during his upcoming visit to Iran, reports said, adding that the US coalition has been alerted to stand down as the Russian jets will have the permission to fire at will at any incoming aircraft. Informed sources said on Friday that President Assad is slated to visit Iran in late December or early January. (FNA, 12.20.15).
- At least 200 civilians have been killed by Russian airstrikes in Syria since Russia's air campaign began there in September, according to a new report by Amnesty International. Russian air raids killed dozens of people in northwestern Syria on Sunday, according to Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The attacks coincided with the release of a report by Human Rights Watch that accuses Russia and the Syrian government of using cluster bombs — indiscriminate, scattershot munitions — that have killed dozens of civilians in Syria in recent weeks. (WP, 21.12.15, (WP, 12.23.15).
- Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has condemned a suspected Russian military attack on the Syrian city of Idlib, adding Syrian territory will not be part of “Russian imperialist goals.” (RFE/RL, 12.22.15).
- Other countries:
- The European Union on Monday extended until end-July the economic sanctions imposed on Russia due to its military involvement in Ukraine. The decision was given preliminary approval by E.U. leaders last week and is due to go into effect on Tuesday. The sanctions have drawn complaints from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said Sunday that Europe was simply acting as an extra arm of the United States. (WP, WSJ, 12.21.15, 12.22.15).
- The European Union on December 18 imposed antidumping duties on imports of Russian aluminum foil after an investigation showed the product was sold across the EU at below-market prices. (RFE/RL, 12.18.15).
- In a move to scale up cooperation in the nuclear energy sector, India and Russia are likely to sign an agreement on units 5 and 6 of the Kudankulam nuclear power plant during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow on Wednesday. India and Russia may sign $7 billion defense contracts, including a deal that would have Russia supply S-400 Triumph surface-to-air systems. (Indian Express, 12.20.15, Interfax, 12.21.15).
- More than 600 tons of opium have been seized in a joint operation between law enforcement officials from Russia and Afghanistan. (RFE/RL, 12.22.15).
Russia's neighbors:
- Ukraine:
- "With Ukraine and other areas of the former U.S.S.R., I'm sure our Western partners aren't working in the interests of Ukraine, they are working to prevent the recreation of the U.S.S.R.," President Vladimir Putin said. "But nobody wants to believe us, nobody wants to believe that we're not trying to bring the Soviet Union back," he added. Putin also said he will not abandon Russians living in southeast Ukraine to what he described as Ukrainian "nationalists." (RFE/RL, 12.21.15).
- Ukraine has reached an agreement with Russia-backed separatists for a truce during the Christmas and New Year holidays that went into effect at midnight on December 22. (RFE/RL, 12.23.15).
- Last-ditch negotiations aimed at addressing Russia's concerns about a free-trade agreement between the European Union and Ukraine ended without result December 21. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow "will continue making efforts" to resolve trade disputes with the European Union and Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 12.22.15).
- The Russian parliament voted on Tuesday to suspend its free-trade zone with Ukraine from January in a further deterioration in relations. “We roughly estimate the negative combined impact of the food import ban and free-trade regime cancellation at around $500m-$700m or 0.5-0.7 per cent of estimated 2016 GDP,” Dragon Capital said.(Financial Times, 12.22.15).
- Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has signed a decree on the introduction of a food embargo against Ukraine on January 1 in response to the country joining anti-Russian sanctions, the Interfax news agency reported Monday. (MT, 12.21.15).
- Other neighbors:
- Armenia said on Tuesday that the ceasefire with arch-foe Azerbaijan over the breakaway region of Nagorny Karabakh virtually no longer exists, describing frequent skirmishes at the frontline as "war". (Daily Sabah, 12.23.15).
- The Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents, Serzh Sarkisian and Ilham Aliyev, have met in Bern in a bid to settle their longstanding conflict over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The latest talks appeared to have made little headway. (RFE/RL, 12.19.15).
- The Russian Defense Ministry has announced that more military hardware has been deployed to reinforce its air base in Armenia. The ministry said on December 21 that a total of six attack and transport helicopters had been sent to the base near the capital, Yerevan. (RFE/RL, 12.21.15).
- Russia and Armenia have signed a collective security deal on a united regional air defense system in the Caucasus. Moscow is currently working on a similar system with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. (Russia Today, 12.22.15).
- The central bank in Azerbaijan has abandoned its currency peg and floated the manat, following a similar move by Kazakhstan earlier this year. The manat fell by nearly 48 percent against the U.S. dollar (from 1.04 to 1.55 manat to the dollar) following the announcement by the central bank on December 21. (RFE/RL, 12.21.15).
The next issue of Russia in Review is scheduled to come out on January 8, 2016.
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