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Russia in Review

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Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for December 11-18, 2015

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security:

  • “In the context of the continuing terrorist threats, one of the major tasks that the Strategic Missile Forces are accomplishing is prevention of nuclear terrorism attempts,” RVSN Commander Col. Gen. Sergei Karakayev told reporters. In 2013-2015, five RVSN bases  were equipped with modern systems that meet the requirements of guidelines documentation, he said. In 2016 three more bases are to be re-equipped with new modern security systems, he said. (Interfax, Russia Today, 12.17.15).
  • The Russian government plans an assessment of the Nunn-Lugar program to weigh the financial benefits derived from this program against damage it does to the national defense, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. “About 16 million dollars are allocated for each submarine. However, this allocation is conditioned on all sorts of touring of defense industry facilities, which we do not really like. So we want to calculate what real financial benefits we derive and what damage the technical verification of our production does to our defense potential,” Rogozin said on Friday. (Eastrussia.ru, 12.18.15).
  • The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2016 provides $29.7 billion for the U.S. Department of Energy to modernize the nuclear deterrent, secure dangerous nuclear and radiological materials around the world, and clean up the country's Cold War environmental legacy among other things.  The bill provides $1.940 billion for nonproliferation activities that reduce the threat of nuclear terrorism. (CONGDP, 12.16.15).
  • The BN-800 Fast Breeder Reactor at Zarechny in the Sverdlovsk region of Russia has been connected to the grid. The BN-800 is eventually to be fueled with surplus weapons grade plutonium manufactured into plutonium-uranium Mixed Oxide (MOX) fuel, produced at the MOX fabrication plant in Zheleznogorsk. (IPFM Blog, 12.15.15).
  • U.S. President Barack Obama has invited Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Gharbashvili to attend the Nuclear Security Summit. (Interpressnews.ge,12.15.15).

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • Iran violated a U.N. Security Council resolution in October by test-firing a missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead, the UN Security Council's Panel of Experts on Iran said in a confidential letter.  (Reuters, 12.16.15).
  • The Kremlin has denied Iranian media reports that the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps General Qasem Soleimani met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for talks in Moscow earlier in December. (RFE/RL, 12.16.15).

NATO-Russia relations:

  • Russian Armed Forces General Staff Deputy Chief Lt. Gen. Igor Makushev has met with Vice-Chief of the UK Defense Staff Air Chief Marshal Stuart Peach to discuss issues concerning the establishment of a direct communication link between the relevant agencies of the armed forces of Russia and the United Kingdom. (Interfax, 12.18.15).
  • Earlier this yearRussia had some 50 diplomats accredited to NATO, one of the largest missions at the alliance, dwarfed only by the American mission. Last April, the Russians were given a Dec. 10 deadline to submit a reduced list of 30 diplomats to be accredited to the alliance, with limited privileges to enter the NATO headquarters building. NATO officials said the Russian delegation made the deadline of submitting a revised roster, but did not say how many people were on the list. (Wall Street Journal, 12.11.15).
  • Assistant U.S. Secretary of State Thomas Countryman believes Russian President Vladimir Putin’s expressions of pride in Russia’s nuclear strength should not be dismissed as idle boasting. “Rhetoric has an effect,” he said. “Words matter….They make it more likely nuclear weapons could be used. He also said that it was “worrying” that, for the first time in more than 50 years, there is “neither an active dialogue with Moscow nor anything scheduled on nuclear weapons.”(Forbes, 12.11.15).
  • U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General Jack Weinstein, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, spoke of the rising threat of nukes and intercontinental ballistic missiles posed by Russia, China and, North Korea. “The Russians are developing ICBMs and nuclear bombers,” Weinstein told a CSIS event. “They are developing a whole new infrastructure for an ICBM force.” (Forbes, 12.11.15).
  • Beginning in fiscal 2017, the U.S. Defense Department plans to ramp up funding for exercises with Allied forces and an enhanced U.S. military presence on the Continent as part of its $1 billion European Reassurance Initiative.(Wall Street Journal, 12.13.15).

Missile defense:

  • The new U.S. ballistic missile defense site in Romania is set to come online Friday, as the  U.S. Navy takes control of it after years of construction and prepares it to track and shoot down missiles bound for Europe. The Aegis Ashore site should be declared operational this spring. (Navy Times, 12.17.15).

Nuclear arms control:

  • No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

  • The U.N. Security Council has approved a robust set of sanctions targeting Islamic State's finances.  Russia and the U.S. jointly drafted resolution and all 15 members of the Security Council unanimously voted Thursday to endorse it. (Wall Street Journal, 12.17.15).
  • Russian law enforcers suspect more than 1,600 individuals and legal entities of providing financial aid to the Islamic State, Federal Security Service head Alexander Bortnikov said. By September, there were about 1,800 Russian citizens fighting with IS, Interior Ministry head Vladimir Kolokoltsev said. The National Anti-terror Committee had earlier voiced more modest estimates – about 1,500 Russians, with 150 of them who were already dead.  (Moscow Times, 12.15.15).
  • ISIS executioner of a Russian national has been identified by Russian media and his friends as a 28-year-old named Anatoly Zemlyanka from the city of Noyabrsk. (Wall Street Journal, 12.15.15).
  • The North Caucasian military district court has pronounced a quilty verdict to resident of the Kirov region Askar Abdumuslimov and Dagestani native Albert Minatullayev, who were planning to go to Syria and join ISIS.  (Interfax, 12.14.15).
  • Police in Russia's North Caucasus region of Dagestan killed three gunmen in a shoot-out in the central city of Kizilyurt on December 16.  Also on December 16, unknown armed assailants reportedly attacked a firefighting crew in Dagestan’s southeastern Derbent district, injuring three firefighters.  (RFE/RL, 12.16.15).
  • Investigators have not yet found any evidence to show that an “illegal or terrorist act” brought down the Russian jetliner that crashed on the Sinai Peninsula on Oct. 31, but they are still looking, Egypt's chief investigator said in a statement released Monday. (AP, 12.14.15).

Cyber security:

  • U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter used his personal email account for government business, the Pentagon acknowledged late Wednesday. (Wall Street Journal, 12.17.15).

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Germany's chancellor Friday defended the planned Nord Stream 2 pipeline. “I made clear, along with others, that this is a commercial project; there are private investors," Angela Merkel said following discussions on the Nord Stream 2 project with the other 27 EU leaders. European Council President Donald Tusk says the proposed pipeline does not meet EU energy rules on supply diversification and would undermine Ukraine's role as a gas transit state.   (Wall Street Journal, RFE/RL, 12.18.15).
  • OAO Gazprom officials argued at an oral hearing Tuesday that European Union antitrust charges against the Russian energy giant are “groundless and based on significant methodological errors," Gazprom said. (Wall Street Journal, 12.15.15).
  • Leaders of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India broke ground on December 14 on a $10 billion natural-gas pipelinec. (RFE/RL, 12.13.15).

Bilateral economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

  • Russia is ready to improve ties with the United States and work with whomever is elected its next president, President Vladimir Putin said during his traditional year-end news conference on Thursday. He said his talks with U.S. Secretary John Kerry earlier this week showed that Washington is ready to "move toward settling the issues that can only be settled through joint efforts." (AP, 12.17.15).
  • "We don't seek to isolate Russia as a matter of policy, no," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said in Moscow. “The world is better off when Russia and the U.S. work together, he added, calling Obama and Putin's current cooperation a "sign of maturity." "There is no policy of the United States, per se, to isolate Russia," Kerry stressed. (AP, 12.17.15).
  • During his traditional year-end news conference on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin  spoke highly of Donald Trump. “It is not our business to assess his merits; that is up to the U.S. voters. But he is an absolute leader of the presidential race,” he said. Mr. Putin praised Mr. Trump's stance. “He says he wants to move to another level of relations, to closer and deeper relations with Russia, how can we not welcome that? Of course we welcome it," the Russian president said. Trump returned the compliment by noting Putin's poll numbers "in the 80s" and calling him "powerful" during an interview Friday morning. (New York Times, Wall Street Journal, 12.17.15, CBS, 12.18.15).
  • After years of delay, U.S. lawmakers are set to approve reforms boosting the power of major emerging countries like China and Russia at the International Monetary Fund. (RFE/RL, 12.17.15).
  • Sen. John McCain will be saying "nyet" to the massive budget package on Friday over a provision that reverses a ban on purchasing Russian-made rocket engines. McCain is furious with two of his colleagues — Sens. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) and Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) — for  inserting a provision into the budget deal lifting a ban on U.S. companies from purchasing Russian-made RD-180 rocket engines used in military launches of satellites into space. (Washington Post, 12.18.15).
  • A Russian nuclear energy official living in Maryland has been sentenced to four years in federal prison on money laundering charges. Fifty-six-year-old Vadim Mikerin of Chevy Chase was sentenced Tuesday for conspiracy to commit money laundering. He was also ordered to forfeit more than $2.1 million. (AP, 12.15.15).
  • Russian Prosecutor-General Yuri Chaika has accused Hermitage Capital co-founder William Browder and "U.S. secret services" of being behind an opposition film accusing him and his family of corruption. Browder's response, made in a December 14 press release, rejected the allegations made by the prosecutor-general. (RFE/RL, 12.14.15).

 

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

  • During his traditional year-end news conference on Thursday Russian President Vladimir Putin  said that the government may have to cut the federal budget because of a plunge in oil prices, but tried to reassure Russians that the worst of the economic crisis was over. Real incomes, he conceded, are falling, but other indications of social well-being such as the birthrate are up, he said. Putin predicted that Russia would have 0.7 percent growth in 2016, 1.9 percent growth in 2017, and 2.4 percent growth in 2018. (New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, 12.17.15).
  • Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov anticipates that price for oil in some periods of time in 2016 could drop to $30 per barrel. (Interfax, 12.12.15).
  • The ruble has fallen 14.5 per cent against the dollar in the last two months. That may sound severe, but with oil falling 30.7 per cent in the same period, the ruble has held up surprisingly well. (Financial Times, 12.17.15).
  • President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree setting the minimum wage in Russia at 6,204 rubles ($87) a month beginning Jan.1, 2016, according to a document published Tuesday on the government's legal information website. (Moscow Times, 12.15.15).
  • Russia is considering selling 19% stake in OAO Rosneft next year, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said Wednesday, as the government looks for ways to plug holes in its oil-dependent budget. (Wall Street Journal, 12.16.15).
  • Russia issued its first electronic-payment cards Tuesday, -- branded Mir -- aiming to boost its financial independence and compete with international systems such as Visa Inc. and MasterCard Inc. (Wall Street Journal, 12.16.15).
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law that will allow the country's Constitutional Court to decide whether to enforce verdicts against Moscow that are made by interstate courts, such as the European Court of Human Rights. (RFE/RL, 12.15.15).
  • The quota for foreign workers in Russia in 2016 is set at almost 214,000 people, which is 22.4 percent less than this year, according to a government decree published on the official website Wednesday. (Moscow Times, 12.16.15).
  • A fire at a psychiatric care home in Russia's Voronezh region killed 23 people, the region's Emergencies Ministry said December 13. (RFE/RL, 12.13.15).
  • According to a poll from the Moscow-based Levada Center independent polling and sociological research organization, only 41 percent of those Russians who mainly rely on TV for news actually trust it compared to 79 percent  in 2009. (RFE/RL, 12.16.15).

Defense and Aerospace:

  • New weapons should go to “all parts” of the nuclear triad of air, sea, and land forces, Vladimir Putin told a Defense Ministry meeting in Moscow on Friday. Action must also be taken “to improve the effectiveness of missile-attack warning systems and aerospace defense.” Russia’s military will have five new nuclear regiments equipped with modern missile complexes next year, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told the same meeting. More than 95 percent of the country’s nuclear forces are at a permanent state of readiness, he said. (Bloomberg, 12.11.15).
  • Russia will soon be fielding the powerful S-500 integrated air and missile defense system, which is currently under development by the Moscow-based defense firm Almaz-Antey. (National Interest, 12.17.15).
  • While the Russian navy is between one-sixth to one-quarter of the size of the once-mighty Soviet fleet, Moscow has used the lean years immediately following the Cold War to focus on quality over quantity, according to a new report from the U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Intelligence. But the Russian navy urgently needs to build more ships or risk essentially “disappearing” in the 2020s, according to the report. (National Interest, 12.18.15).
  • A Sineva ICBM was launched on December 12 from the submerged Verkhoturye nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea. Its warheads successfully struck the Kura testing ground on Russia's Far Eastern Kamchatka Peninsula.(RFE/RL, 12.12.15).
  • An errant cruise missile accidentally destroyed an apartment building in the village of Nenoksa on Russia’s northern coast earlier today during a test flight. (National Interest, 12.15.15).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • The Moscow City Court has sentenced Ukrainian Valentyn Vyhovskiy to 11 years in prison for espionage. Vyhovskiy, a 32-year-old Ukrainian businessman, was arrested last year in his native Crimea after it was annexed by Russia in March 2014. (RFE/RL, 12.15.15).

Foreign affairs and trade:

  • Syria:
    • When in Moscow U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday accepted Russia's long-standing demand that President Bashar Assad's future be determined by his own people. "The United States and our partners are not seeking so-called regime change," Kerry told reporters in the Russian capital after meeting President Vladimir Putin. (AP, 12.16.15).
    • During his traditional year-end news conference on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin  praised the efforts of Secretary of State John Kerry to find a political solution to the war in Syria. Putin said Kerry had shown him a draft UN resolution and that "on the whole it is an acceptable proposal," though some points still needed work. As of Friday afternoon diplomats from more than a dozen countries were still negotiating in New York on how to fulfill a key goal — a United Nations Security Council resolution endorsing a plan for resolving the conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters on Friday afternoon that the resolution was still being negotiated and that it could be presented to UNSC in a few hours (NYT, 12.18.15, Twitter of Laura Rozen of Al-Monitor, 12.18.15,Washington Post, 12.16.15, RFE/RL, 12.18.15, New York Times, Washington Post, 12.17.15).
    • Russia has made clear to Western nations that it has no objection to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stepping down as part of a peace process, in a softening of its publicly stated staunch backing of Assad ahead of talks in New York, diplomats said. "What you've got is a move that will end up with Assad going," a senior Western diplomat said on condition of anonymity. "And the Russians have got to the point privately where they accept that Assad will have gone by the end of this transition, they're just not prepared to say that publicly," he added. (Reuters, 12.17.15).
    • Celeste Wallander, senior director for Russia and Central Asia on U.S. President Barack Obama’s National Security Council, said "it’s clear” that an agreement is possible between the U.S.-led coalition and Moscow on the political exit of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. “We wouldn’t be having these negotiations if we didn’t think that there was a possibility that Russia's position is evolving such that we could agree,” Wallander said. (RFE/RL, 12.11.15).
    • Russia’s Aerospace Forces have conducted 4,201 sorties since the beginning of the air operation in Syria on September 30th, Lt. General Sergei Rudskoi of the Russian General Staff was quoted by the Russian defense ministry’s web site as saying on December 15th.  145 of these sorties were carried out by long-range bombers armed with missiles and bombs. (Belfer Center, 12.15.15).
    • Asked about Russia's intervention in the civil war in Syria, Russian president Vladimir Putin said that Russian forces would remain there at least until a democratic process is launched. In a closed-door meeting before parliament on Wednesday, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu declined to put a time limit on Russia’s intervention, but said that Russia "can't count on a quick conclusion to the operation."  (Washington Post, 12.17.15).
    • Last Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin dropped a bombshell when he announced that Russia was providing arms to the Free Syrian Army. But Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, later denied that Russia was supplying the Free Syrian Army with weapons, saying that journalists had misinterpreted Putin's statement and that Russia only gives arms "to the legitimate authorities of the Syrian Arab Republic. Vladimir Kozhin, a senior Kremlin adviser on military technology, when asked whether Russia was supplying the Free Syrian Army, gave a curt reply: "No." (New York Times, 12.14.15).
    • Aid agencies are warning of a worsening humanitarian crisis in northern Syria as sharply intensified because of Russian airstrikes. (WP, 12.1.5.15).
    • The U.S. has stopped flying manned air-support missions for rebels in a key part of northern Syria due to Russia’s expansion of air defense systems there, and the Barack Obama administration is scrambling to figure out what to do about it. (Bloomberg, 12.17.15).
    • Republican presidential candidate Chris Christie on Wednesday morning fired back at GOP primary rival Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) for saying a no-fly zone in Syria could spark a global war -- responding by stating that one has already started. Senator Santorum and Senator Graham also supported establishment of the no-fly zone in Syria during the debates. (Washington Post, 12.16.15).
  • Other countries:
    • European Union envoys agreed on Friday a six-month rollover of the bloc's economic sanctions on Russia, diplomats said, extending the measures until the end of July 2016. The decision will become final on Monday unless any member state changes its position and raises an objection in writing. The decision came after an EU summit in Brussels where Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi wanted to discuss the sanctions. (Reuters, 12.18.15).
    • During his traditional year-end news conference on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin  did not discount the suggestion that Turkey may have given the order to shoot down the Russian jet with the goal of pleasing the United States. “If someone in the Turkish government decided to lick the Americans in a particular place, I don't know if they were acting rightly. I don't know if the Americans need this." "It is hard for us to reach agreement with the current Turkish leadership, if it is possible at all," Putin said.  (Washington Post, RFE/RL, 12.17.15).
    • The Russian Defense Ministry says one of its warships was forced to fire warning shots to avoid a collision with a Turkish ship in the Aegean Sea. The Turkish vessel, which the ministry did not name, had failed to respond to earlier warnings but had sharply changed course after shots were fired before passing within 500 meters of the Russian warship.  (RFE/RL, 12.13.15).
    • Ankara says it will not pay any compensation to Moscow for the Russian warplane that was shot down last month near the Turkish-Syrian border by Turkey's air force. (RFE/RL, 12.16.15).
    • The memory card in the flight recorder of a Russian fighter plane downed by Turkey on the Syrian border last month is damaged, Russian investigators say. (BBC, 12.18.15).
    • Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) raided four Turkish bank branches in Russia on Thursday, on suspicion of money laundering. (Moscow Times, 12.18.15).
    • Russia has expelled a Polish journalist days after Warsaw forced a Russian reporter out of the country.  (RFE/RL, 12.18.15).
    • Japanese electronics company Toshiba has pulled out of the Russian consumer market over the weakening ruble and tough competition. (Moscow Times, 12.14.15).

Russia's neighbors:

  • Ukraine:
    • Ukraine's leaders declared a moratorium on a $3 billion bond to Russia on Friday, a move that the Russian government previously said would provoke legal action against Kiev. In a statement, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said payments “will stop until our restructuring proposal is accepted or until there is a corresponding court case." (Wall Street Journal, 12.18.15).
    • The International Monetary Fund's executive board ruled that a $3 billion bond sold by Ukraine to Russia should be considered official sovereign debt, putting pressure on Ukrainian officials to start restructuring talks with their Russian counterparts. (Bloomberg, 12.17.15).
    • The International Monetary Fund criticized Ukraine's parliament Friday, saying legislators had all but scuttled a tax-overhaul plan that would help unlock much-needed loans from the Washington-based lender.  Earlier Ukraine’s president, prime minister and chairman of parliament pledged to put aside their differences and take measures to unlock loans from IMF. Some allies of President Petro Poroshenko have called for the dismissal of Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, but the statement said this issue was “not on the agenda." (Wall Street Journal, 12.16.15, 12.18.15).
    • President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday ordered his government to suspend Russia's free trade zone with Ukraine from Jan. 1, making good on Moscow's threats to Kiev. Senior Russian officials said this month Moscow would probably have to penalize Ukrainian imports and impose a non-preferential trade regime if Kiev's planned free trade pact with Europe went ahead on Jan. 1. (RFE/RL, 12.16.15).
    • Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said at a government meeting on December 16 that Ukraine's cabinet had decided that "the supplying of goods, work, and services to Crimea and from Crimea" will be banned within 30 days.  (RFE/RL, 12.16.15).
    • During his traditional year-end news conference on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin denied once again that regular Russian forces were in Ukraine, but also noted that that Russia “never said that we did not have people there who are dealing with certain issues.” Following Putin’s statement, NATO's top civilian official renewed calls on Russia to remove troops from eastern Ukraine. On Friday, however, presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that any allegations of Putin acknowledging Russian military presence in Ukraine are “absolutely incorrect. (Russia Today, 12.18.15, Washington Post, 12.17.15, Wall Street Journal, 12.17.15).
    • The European Commission says both Georgia and Ukraine meet all benchmarks for getting visa free travel to the European Union's Schengen zone, possibly allowing the citizens of the two countries to travel to the EU without visas as soon as 2016. (RFE/RL, 12.18.15).
    • Luhansk Cossack leader Pavel Dryomov has reportedly been killed after his car exploded as he was on his way home from his own wedding. (RFE/RL, 12.13.15).
  • Other neighbors:
    • Kazakhstan’s tenge has cemented its position as the world’s worst-performing currency this year, plunging to a fresh record low on Monday, as oil prices continued to slide. The Kazakh currency dropped as much as 5.6 per cent to a new record of 333.9 tenge per dollar. Since January 1, the Kazakh currency has lost more than 80 percent of its value. (RFE/RL, Financial Times, 12.14.15).
    • Following Russia's ban on EU food imports, Belarus has become Russia's largest supplier of kiwi fruit, while apple exports to Russia are up 96 percent in a year and citrus exports up 60 percent. (AP, 12.13.15).
    • Belarusian Foreign Minister Uladzimer Makey has discussed cooperation with EU and NATO officials in the latest sign of warming relations between Minsk and the West. (RFE/RL, 12.14.15).
    • Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in Moscow. After the talks on December 15, the two countries signed an agreement on the equal rights of the two countries' citizens to move and reside within the Russian-Belarusian Union State -- a grouping that was established in 1996. (RFE/RL, 12.15.15).
    • During his annual press conference on Thursday Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow is ready to restore relations with the former Soviet republic of Georgia, seven years after a brief war sent relations to an all-time low. (RFE/RL, 12.17.15).
    • Armenia’s Central Election Commission on December 13 said amendments to the country’s constitution have been adopted, a week after a national referendum, transforming the country from a presidential to a parliamentary system of government. (RFE/RL, 12.13.15).
    • The Committee to Protect Journalists an international press rights group, says China and Egypt were the world's worst jailers of journalists in 2015.Azerbaijan, where President Ilham Aliyev’s government has sparked international outrage with a broad crackdown on dissent, led all former Soviet republics by imprisoning eight journalists in 2015(. RFE/RL, 12.15.15).

 

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