Russia in Review

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security:

“Nuclear terrorism is a real threat and we need to get prepared and protect ourselves,” International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Yukiya Amano said on Monday. “Nuclear materials exist everywhere in the world and if nuclear materials fall into the hands of terrorist, that can be used for dirty bombs,” he said. (Philna, 12.07.15).
The European Parliament has issued a report saying the Islamic State has already smuggled weapons of mass destruction into Europe and will use the weapons in a future operation. “CBRN substances have been carried undetected into the European Union. Interpol’s monthly CBRN intelligence reports show numerous examples of attempts to acquire, smuggle or use CBRN materials,” the report said. (Washington Times, 12.06.15).
Russia and the United States should create coalition for combating of the threat of nuclear terrorism that would allow prevention of risk of coming of radioactive materials to the hands of Islamic State and other terrorist groups. Such call was voiced by participants of a Russian-American conference dedicated to non-proliferation issues in Washington. (WPS, 12.07.15).
Critics of a multibillion-dollar program to convert excess U.S. weapons-grade plutonium into fuel for commercial nuclear reactors under a 2000 treaty with Russia have seized on a newly disclosed report to renew calls for an end to the project. The report completed by privately-held Aerospace Corp for DOE in August concluded that diluting and disposing of the plutonium was the least technically complex of several alternatives and had the lowest cost risk since no new facilities were required. (Reuters, 12.07.15).
A new report released by the Military Materials Security Study Group highlights a critical gap in global nuclear security efforts and offers recommendations for governments to tighten control and build confidence in the security of nuclear materials categorized as “military materials.” “Terrorists determined to steal nuclear materials will not distinguish between nuclear materials designated as civilian and those designated as military,” said Sam Nunn, NTI Co-chairman and former U.S. Senator. (NTI, 12.10.15).

Iran nuclear issues:

Russia's envoy to the U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Monday he expected a historic nuclear deal between Iran and world powers to be implemented in January, leading to sanctions against Tehran being lifted. Under the July 2015 deal, Iran must scale back its nuclear program, including its stockpile of low-enriched uranium - which it plans to do via a swap for non-enriched forms of uranium with Russia. That swap will be done before the end of the year, the Russian envoy to the IAEA, Vladimir Voronkov, told reporters. (Reuters, 12.07.15).
The U.S. is helping Iran with an arrangement to send part of its nuclear fuel stockpile to Kazakhstan, a step that would ease swift sanctions relief for Tehran. (Wall Street Journal, 12.08.15.).
On Monday, the six powers in the deal with Iran floated a draft resolution to other members of the International Atomic Energy Agency. It proposed closing the IAEA's decade long probe into Iran's past work on nuclear weapons—which would be another key step toward easing sanctions. U.S. officials said they expect the resolution to be passed within a week. (Wall Street Journal, 12.08.15.).

NATO-Russia relations:

The Pentagon is preparing a “significant” increase in its budget for its operations in Europe for the next fiscal year in response to Russia. (Financial Times, 12.06.15).
Poland’s Defense Ministry denied on Sunday that it is considering asking for access to nuclear weapons through a NATO program under which the U.S. places them on the territory of certain allied states. (AP, 12.06.15).

Missile defense:

The U.S. military says it shot down a missile off the coast of Hawaii in a test of a missile-defense system designed to protect NATO forces in Europe from attack. Defense contractor Raytheon Co. said the test's success keeps the Aegis Ashore program on track for deployment in Romania by the year's end. It says it is expected to operate in Poland in 2018. (RFE/RL, 12.11.15).

Arms control:

The UN General Assembly has adopted a Russian resolution, 'No first Placement of Weapons in Outer Space', the Russian Foreign Ministry said. The resolution was submitted by Russia and initially co-authored by Brazil and China, it said. The United States was the only country that refused to back the Russian initiative, the ministry said. (Interfax, 12.08.15).
Russia has opposed a proposal to annually report on how signatories to the Geneva Conventions comply with the rules of warfare. (Moscow Times, 12.11.15).

Counter-terrorism:

Moscow sees the coalition led by the United States against ISIS as a potential efficient partner, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said. "The U.S. coalition is a reality,” he said.(Interfax, 12.11.15).
- Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the influence of Islamic State was increasing in Syria. The number of IS fighters in Iraq and Syria totals around 60,000, Shoigu said, and there is a threat of violence spilling over into post-Soviet Central Asia and the Caucasus. (Reuters, 12.11.15).
Foreign fighters from Russia and Central Asia joining ISIS have surged by as much as 300 percent since June 2014, according to New York City-based Soufan Group. That's an increase that is proportionally higher than the flow of foreign fighters from Western Europe over the same period. According to the Russian interior ministry, 477 criminal cases were opened last year alone on individuals charged with fighting in an illegal armed formation abroad — almost double the number in 2013. (Financial Times, 12.08.15, CNBC, 12.09.15).
A visiting board of the Moscow District Court sentenced recruiter of Islamic State Magomed Gireyev on Dec. 8 to three years. (Interfax, 12.08.15).
Artur Kiskayev, a Chechen man living in Russia's Volgograd region has been sentenced to 18 months in prison for praising the Islamic State on social networks. (Moscow Times, 12.10.15).
Enrique Marquez who legally bought assault rifles used in the San Bernardino massacre, married a woman from Russia, Mariya Chernykh, 25. Mariya is the younger sister of the wife of Syed Rizwan Farook’s older brother, according to Riverside County marriage records. Other than the marriage certificate Marquez and Chernykh signed on Nov. 29, 2014, however, there is very little evidence that the two were a real married couple.(ABC, Press-Enterprise, 12.09.15).
Also see section Syria.

Cyber security:

The Russian Prosecutor General's Office is set to block websites inciting ‛“large-scale civil unrest,” “extremist activities” and participation in mass gatherings deemed to “undermine social order” within five days of their being reported. (Moscow Times, 12.11.15).

Energy exports from CIS:

Officials from Gazprom and the Russian government traveled to Brussels on Thursday to discuss European Union charges that the Russian energy firm hindered competition and charged unfair prices in Eastern Europe. One person familiar with Thursday's talks said negotiations were progressing “one step at a time," and that a fresh meeting could take place soon. (Wall Street Journal, 12.11.15).
Ukraine's prime minister on Monday urged the European Union to block the Nord Stream II gas pipeline project, saying it will hurt Ukraine and hand Russia more of a monopoly over gas supplies to the continent. (Wall Street Journal, 12.07.15).
In only 16 months, global oil prices have collapsed from over $110 a barrel to less than half that. (New York Times, 12.09.15).

Bilateral economic ties:

No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

Sen. John McCain blasted United Launch Alliance that lifts national security satellites to space, saying it has made "troubling and specious claims" about its sudden inability to participate in a recent competition to launch an Air Force satellite. One of the reasons that ULA said it couldn't bid on the contract was a congressionally mandated limit on the Russian-made engine that powers its Atlas V rocket. (Washington Post, 12.11.15).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Russia's budget deficit is expected to reach 1.5 trillion rubles ($21.7 billion) in 2016 with an oil price baseline of $40 a barrel, Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin said Friday. In this projection, the deficit will constitute about 2 percent of GDP. (Moscow Times, 12.11.15).
Russia's Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev has forecasted that Russia's GDP will contract by 3.7 percent by the end of the year. His GDP forecast is more optimistic than in the previous months — in September he estimated that it would contract by 3.9 percent, RBC newspaper reported. (Moscow Times, 12.10.15).
The Bank of Russia decided to keep rates on hold Friday. (CNBC, 12.11.15).
More than 3 million Russians are expected to fall back into poverty by the end of this year and another 6 million to drop out of the ranks of the middle class, according to forecasts from the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. Those would be the biggest such increases since 1999. (Bloomberg, 12.09.15).
Russian President Vladimir Putin is concerned about a possible erosion of his support amid the country's deep economic recession, and has his secretive Federal Guard Service monitor and tries to assuage protest moods in the country. (Moscow Times 12.10.15/Bloomberg, 12.09.15).
More than 70 percent of Moscow residents aware of the ongoing protest by truck drivers support their action, a poll released Wednesday by the independent Levada Center indicated. Hundreds of long-distance truckers blocked a lengthy section of the ring road circling the capital last Friday to protest a new national toll (Moscow Times, 12.10.15, New York Times, 12.05.15).
Russia in 2015 has experienced the largest decrease in foreign travel in 15 years, Russian Tourism Industry Union said. (Moscow Times, 12.08.15).
Russia’s Rosatom Corporation believes construction of as many as seven floating nuclear power plants would be economically feasible, Interfax reported, citing the company’s first deputy director Ivan Kamenskikh. (Belfer Center, 12.11.15).
The number of children in Russian orphanages has decreased by half over the past three years to 73,000, according to Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets. (Moscow Times, 12.11.15).
Russia's lower house of parliament approved a law granting the Federal Constitutional Court the right to declare international court orders unenforceable in Russia if they violate the country's constitution. (Moscow Times, 12.04.15).
Russia has seen a surge in patriotic feelings since the annexation of Crimea in March 2014, with 82 percent of respondents saying that Russian citizenship was preferable to any other, according to a new study by the independent Levada Center pollster. (Moscow Times, 12.07.15).

Defense and Aerospace:

Russia will implement its spending plans for defense despite tough financial conditions, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said. “Russia cannot sacrifice its defense spending," Medvedev said. "If we don't have decent armed forces, we won't have a country." (Reuters, 12.09.15).
Russia carried out the first successful flight test of a new anti-satellite missile this month. The flight test of Russia’s direct ascent anti-satellite missile, known as Nudol, took place Nov. 18, according to defense officials familiar with reports of the test. (Free Beacon, 12.02.15).
Russian officials say they have lost contact with a newly developed military satellite that failed to separate from its booster rocket after being launched. The Kanopus-ST had been designed to scan the Earth's oceans and weather systems from space. (RFE/RL, 12.07.15).
Russia's development of its Glonass global navigation system is nearing completion and it is now undergoing final tests at the Defense Ministry. (Moscow Times, 12.07.15).
Moscow claims to be developing a nuclear super-torpedo that can radioactively contaminate economic targets on enemy. The Status-6 torpedo is part of Perimeter , which is the Soviet-built automatic command system that is supposed to launch a retaliatory missile strike should Russia's leaders be wiped out by an American first strike, according to a recent article in the Rossiyskaya Gazeta. (National Interest, 12.08.15).
The construction of four Russian military bases on the islands of the Arctic Ocean has been completed, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said. (Interfax, 12.11.15).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

A Russian court has sentenced an activist to three years in prison under a new law introduced last year. A court in Moscow found Ildar Dadin guilty on December 7 of "repetitive violation of the regulations on public events," and sentenced him the same day. (RFE/RL, 12.07.15).
Russian tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky says he has been formally accused in a criminal case that, according to associates, involves the 1998 killing of a Siberian mayor that President Vladimir Putin has previously suggested was ordered by the self-exiled Kremlin critic. (RFE/RL, 12.07.15).
Russian officials say a small explosive device has injured five people at a bus stop in central Moscow. Russian police downplayed suggestions that the blast was the result of a terrorist attack, saying that a "hooliganism investigation" had been opened into the case. (RFE/RL, 12.07.15).

Foreign affairs and trade:

Syria:
- “The Kalibrs (sea based cruise missiles) and KH-101 (airborne cruise missile) have proved to be modern and highly effective, and now we know it for sure - precision weapons that can be equipped with both conventional and special warheads, which are nuclear,” Putin said. “Naturally, this is not necessary when fighting terrorists and, I hope, will never be needed,” Russian President Vladimir Putin told Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu. Shoigu had earlier told Putin that Russia for the first time had struck Islamic State targets in Syria with missiles fired from a submarine. The Kalibr cruise missiles were launched from the Rostov-on-Don submarine in the Mediterranean. (RFE/RL, 12.08.15,Russia Today, 12.09.15).
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned against staging new provocations against Russian forces in Syria. "I order to be maximally harsh and to immediately destroy any target threatening the Russian group or our ground infrastructures," the head of state said. (Interfax, 12.11.15).
- President Vladimir Putin said on Friday Russia supports the opposition Free Syrian Army, providing it with air support, arms and ammunition in joint operations with Syrian troops against Islamist militants. (Reuters, 12.11.15).
- Many senior officials in Moscow underestimated how long the operation in support of Bashar al-Assad would take when Putin entered Syria’s civil war on Sept. 30 and no longer talk in terms of just a few months, with one saying the hope now is that it won’t last several years. (Bloomberg, 12.09.15).
- Russia has further bolstered its strike capability in Syria by deploying another four Su-34 aircraft to the Humaymim Air Base in Latakia province. But the Russian Defense Ministry on Wednesday denied reports that the military has deployed forces to two previously unused airbases in Syria. Russia now has as many as 5,000 servicemen on the ground; more than double the original estimate of 2,000, according to RUSI. (Interfax 12.05.15, Moscow Times, 12.09.15, Jane’s, 12.10.15,Bloomberg, 12.09.15).
- Russia initially earmarked just $1.2 billion for the war in Syria for all of 2016. Outlays were running at about $4 million a day before Putin’s mid-November surge in troops and hardware, which doubled the cost to $8 million, or almost $3 billion on an annualized basis, according to RUSI. (Bloomberg, 12.09.15).
- Leonid Reshetnikov, a retired Foreign Intelligence Service general who now heads a Kremlin advisory group: Assad’s fate isn’t an “insurmountable obstacle.” (Bloomberg, 12.09.15).
- Iran is beginning to withdraw its elite fighters from the Russian-led military campaign in Syria, according to U.S. and other Western military officials. (Bloomberg, 12.10.15).
- Cyprus's foreign minister says the country is negotiating with Russia on a deal to allow Russian warplanes returning from air strikes in Syria to use Cypriot airports in emergency situations. (RFE/RL, 12.08.15).
- U.S. President Barack Obama said: “With American leadership, the international community has begun to establish a process -- and timeline -- to pursue cease-fires and a political resolution to the Syrian war. Doing so will allow the Syrian people and every country, including our allies, but also countries like Russia, to focus on the common goal of destroying ISIL -- a group that threatens us all.” (New York Times, 12.07.15).
- U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says he hopes to visit Russia and meet Vladimir Putin within the next week for talks on the crisis in Syria and Ukraine. (AP, 12.09.15).
- "We have the military capacity to impose a no-fly zone," Air Force Gen. Paul Selva, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee. But he was concerned abut the Syrian and Russian reaction. "The potential for miscalculation and loss of American life in the air don’t warrant the no-fly zone." (WP, 12.10.15).

Other countries:

The European Union will likely extend economic sanctions against Russia despite Italy delaying a final decision, Interfax reported Thursday, citing an unidentified European diplomatic source. It is expected that the sanctions against Russia will be prolonged, the source said, adding that EU leaders are likely to reach an agreement on the issue next week. The news comes a day after the EU leaders decided to postpone the talks on the extension of anti-Russian sanctions after Italy demanded further debate on the issue. EU foreign ministers will meet on December 14th while European leader will hold their summit on December 17-18. (Moscow Times, 12.10.15, Ansat, 12.09.15).
The downing of a Russian Sukhoi bomber by the Turkish Air Force was sufficient reason to start a war, but Moscow chose not to respond symmetrically, says Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. “What did 20th-century countries used to do in a similar situation? A war began,” Medvedev said. (Russia Today, 12.09.15).
President Vladimir Putin said Russia has recovered the black box of a Russian warplane downed by Turkey last month and will ask foreign specialists to help analyze it. (RFE/RL, 12.09.15).
Russia denounced as "reckless" Turkey's deployment of troops to northern Iraq, but the United Nations Security Council declined to take a stand on the dispute. (RFE/RL, 12.09.15).
Moscow has rejected accusations by Turkey that Russia has been conducting ethnic cleansing operations in Syria against opponents of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. (RFE/RL, 12.10.15).
Turkey has summoned Russia's ambassador to Ankara over images of a Russian serviceman apparently holding a missile launcher as his ship passed through Turkish waters. (RFE/RL, 12.07.15).
The Turkish economy stands to lose $9 billion due to sanctions recently imposed by Russia, the country's deputy Prime Minister Mehmed Simsek said in an interview with Turkish television channel NTV. (Moscow Times, 12.07.15).
Turkish officials say Russia has stopped construction work at Turkey's first planned nuclear power plant, amid a bitter row between Moscow and Ankara. (RFE/RL, 12.09.15).
The Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering — a branch of Moscow-based National Research Nuclear University -- has expelled a number of its Turkish students. (Moscow Times, 12.11.15).
Russia does not plan to expand its economic sanctions against Turkey, but is unlikely to restore visa-free travel for Turkish citizens any time soon, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said in an interview published Monday. (Moscow Times, 12.07.15).
Finland's border service has registered a Russian helicopter violating Finnish airspace, according to a post on its website on Friday. (Moscow Times, 12.11.15).
Russia and China will sign a number of bilateral agreements in the field of trade, energy and aviation during the visit of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to China on December 14-17. (Sputnik, 12.09.15).
Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank will launch a pilot retail product in yuan in 2016. (Interfax, 12.10.15).
“The simple fact is, the West doesn’t face a threat from Russia,” former Mayor of London Ken Livingstone said. “We now face a threat from Muslim fundamentalism. Most of which has been funded by Saudi Arabia, our principal ally, which has funded the most intolerant strand of Islam which bears no relation to the teaching of the Prophet Mohammed.” (The Independent, 12.11.15).

Russia's neighbors:

Ukraine:
- The European Union's executive is set to give its backing to Ukraine's bid for visa-free access to the bloc, EU officials said. The European Commission is likely to finish clearing Ukraine's bid by the end of January. (Wall Street Journal, 12.09.15).
- A Ukrainian security officer has been killed during a special operation to detain an alleged group of saboteurs. Officials from Ukraine's Security Service said on December 10 that the group consisted of eight people -- five Ukrainian citizens and three Russians. (RFE/RL, 12.10.15).
- At least 9,115 people have been killed in the 21 months since the outbreak of hostilities in eastern Ukraine in April 2014, United Nations monitors in Ukraine reported on Wednesday. Arms and fighters are still pouring into rebel-held areas of eastern Ukraine from Russia, a United Nations report said on Wednesday. (New York Times, 12.10.15, Reuters, 12.09.15).
- Russian military involvement in Syria has not significantly decreased its capabilities in eastern Ukraine, a top U.S. general said Wednesday. “They definitely have the ability to do both, should they need to," Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, told reporters at the Pentagon. (CNN, 12.09.15).
- Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev accused Ukrainian leaders of being ready to cheat his country over a $3 billion bond that comes due this month as he stepped up threats of retribution if the amount isn’t paid. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered Finance Minister Anton Siluanov to file a lawsuit against Ukraine if Kiev fails to repay the loan. (Russia Today, Bloomberg, 12.09.15).
- IMF tweaked its lending rules on Tuesday, paving the way for more emergency cash for Ukraine and undermining Russia’s economic leverage over the former Soviet republic. The IMF rule change will allow lending to countries with sovereign arrears. (Wall Street Journal, 12.08.15).
- The United States will not sacrifice Ukraine in pursuit of Russian cooperation in Syria, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. assured Ukrainian leaders in Kiev. While in Kiev Biden announced new financial aid of $190 million to help Ukraine implement reform .Biden also urged Ukrainian leaders to curb the power of the business moguls dominating society and to fulfill the promise of the popular revolution . Activists say Biden’s message is being undermined as his son receives money from a former Ukrainian official who is being investigated for graft. (New York Times, 12.07.15, RFE/RL, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, 12.08.15).
- Power supplies to Crimea from Ukraine have been partially restored, the Russian energy ministry said, easing a two-week power outage that has left much of the disputed peninsula without electricity. (Wall Street Journal, 12.08.15).
- A fight broke out among deputies belonging to Ukraine's ruling coalition after a lawmaker tried to remove Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk from the podium as he spoke to parliament on Friday. (RFE/RL, 12.11.15).
Other neighbors:
- Military officials in the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh Wednesday accused Azerbaijani forces of using a tank against their positions for the first time since the cease-fire in 1994. (AP, 12.10.15).
- Azerbaijan's jailed human rights activist Leyla Yunus has been released from custody following a request by her lawyers for her to be freed due to her deteriorating health condition. (RFE/RL, 12.09.15).
- The deputy chairman of Azerbaijan's opposition Popular Front Party, Fuad Qahramanli, has been arrested in Baku in connection with a deadly security operation in the city's suburbs last month. (RFE/RL, 12.09.15).
- Armenian authorities have detained a retired military officer on charges of spying for Azerbaijan. (RFE/RL, 12.09.15).
- Armenians have voted to bolster the prime minister’s powers, according to referendum results released Monday. Armenia’s Interior Ministry has subsequently warned the protesters on Yerevan’s Freedom Square about the responsibility for violating public order. (Reuters, 12.07.15, Tass, 12.11.15).
- The Georgian Defense Ministry said on December 10 that a Russian Mi-8 helicopter crossed "the occupation line" near Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia the day before and flew back several minutes later. (RFE/RL, 12.10.15).
- Tajik lawmakers have voted to give President Emomali Rahmon the title "Leader of the Nation" and grant him lifelong immunity from prosecution. (RFE/RL, 12.10.15).
- Two wanted extremists suspected in the killing of a police officer have been shot dead by security troops in the Kyrgyz capital. (RFE/RL, 12.11.15).

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