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Russia in Review

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Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for October 30-November 5, 2015

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin told a sitting of the Security Council on October 30 that he had ordered government agencies to audit and replenish stocks of means designed for defending Russian citizens from nuclear, chemical and bacteriological threats. It is important to review and potentially strengthen Russia's defense protocols against "nuclear, radiological, chemical and biological threats, both in peacetime, and—God forbid, of course—in wartime,” Putin said. "We discussed possible attacks on vulnerable infrastructure in Russia. If terrorist attacks methods are used, or if high-precision weapons are used, ….for example, if such weapons hit facilities that emit radiation… or chemical kind of facilities… then all this could be comparable to use of weapons of mass destruction.  So even though nuclear weapons were not used, consequences would be comparable,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said of the October 30th meeting of the Russian Security Council. . Rogozin also said the country should revive the old Cold War practice of training civilians on how to respond to a nuclear attack.   (Newsweek, 10.30.15, RFE/RL, 10.30.15, Dozhd, 10.30.15, Kommersant, 10.31.15).
  • The Federal Bureau of Investigation wrapped up a two-day assessment of how to respond to a nuclear bomb discovered at the Port of Anchorage. (Alaska Public Media, 11.04.15).

Iran nuclear issues:

  • No significant developments.

NATO-Russia relations:

  • NATO’s chief says the alliance is staging its largest training exercises in more than a decade to test its capabilities and "send a clear signal" to possible foes that NATO capabilities "are real and ready." Jens Stoltenberg said the drills were "an important part of NATO's long-term adaptation to a changed and new security environment. “He cited "instability and extremism in North Africa and the Middle East, the brutality of [the Islamic State group], Russia's military build-up in Syria and in the Mediterranean, and its aggressive actions in Ukraine.”  (RFE/RL, 11.04.15).

Missile defense:

  • A Raytheon-built Standard Missile 3 Block 1B interceptor failed to hit a medium-range ballistic missile Oct. 31 in a complex U.S. Missile Defense Agency test involving multiple targets. (Space News, 11.02.15).

Arms control:

  • NATO's top military commander General Philip Breedlove says Russia tested a missile last month that appeared to violate the INF treaty. Moscow, however, strenuously denied the allegations and even accused Washington of its own violations.  Some news reports last month cited unnamed Pentagon officials as saying the missile tested September 2-- dubbed the SSC-X-8-- flew less than 300 miles but is capable of flying within the ranges prohibited by the INF. (RFE/RL, 10.31.15).
  • The United States along with Georgia, Israel and Ukraine has voted at the United Nations against the resolution on no first placement of arms in outer space. (Tass, 11.05.15).

Terrorism:

  • Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri called on Muslim supporters to band together to confront the threat from the West and Russia in Syria and Iraq, the latest recording suggesting greater unity between al Qaeda and Islamic State.  (Reuters, 11.01.15).

Cyber security:

  • The Pentagon was tipped off in 2011 by a longtime Army contractor that Russian computer programmers were helping to write computer software for sensitive U.S. military communications systems, setting in motion a four-year federal investigation that ended this week with a multimillion-dollar fine against two firms involved in the work. (Daily Beast, 11.04.15).
  • Major foreign IT companies could suspend their investment in Russia or withdraw from the country altogether over restrictions in the Russian market. These restrictions include a Russian law that obliges state agencies to justify the purchases of foreign software from Jan. 1, 2016, as well as a government decree that prohibits the state purchase of foreign software when a domestic version is available. (Moscow Times, 11.02.15).

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Russia on Monday reported that its October oil production hit a post-Soviet record of 10.78 million barrels per day. (Reuters, 11.02.15).

Bilateral economic ties:

  • Washington is not against Russia joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the U.S. Secretary of State has said. "We invite people to come join other initiatives, like the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the TPP. We welcome China, we welcome Russia, we welcome other countries who would like to join, as long as they want to raise the standards and live up to the highest standards of protecting people and doing business openly and transparently and accountably," said Secretary Kerry. (Interfax, 11.02.15, New American, 11.04.15.).

Other bilateral issues:

  • Russian nationals filed 1,454 new U.S. asylum applications in the 2015 fiscal year ending September 30, up 50 percent from the previous year and more than double the number filed in 2012. It is the third consecutive year that the number of U.S. asylum applications filed by Russian citizens has risen since Vladimir Putin took office for a third presidential term. Russian citizens have filed more than 17,000 U.S. asylum applications since 1994, more than 6,000 of which have been approved. (RFE/RL, 11.04.15).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

  • The Russian currency strengthened 1.4 percent to 62.801 per dollar by 6:37 p.m. in Moscow, the strongest level since Oct. 26. Five-year government bonds climbed, lowering the yield 13 basis points to 9.99 percent, the lowest since October 2014. One-month historical volatility on the ruble dropped to 23.4 on Tuesday, the lowest level since August 12. Brent crude gained 2.5 percent. (Bloomberg, 11.03.15).
  • The number of Russians attending pro-government rallies has increased tenfold since Vladimir Putin returned to the presidency in 2012, according to a survey by the social research center at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. (Moscow Times, 11.05.15).
  • Forbes magazine named Russian President Vladimir Putin the world's most powerful person for a third year in a row, beating out German Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.S. President Barack Obama. (RFE/RL, 11.05.15).
  • The Russian Ministry of Justice has named a total of 100 “foreign agents” NGOs as of this week, and has tabled a new bill that would immediately shut down non-profits it deems guilty of repeated failures to inform the Ministry of their activities. (Bellona, 11.04.15).
  • Respected Russian academic Sergei Guriev who fled into self-imposed exile two years ago amid fears of criminal prosecution will be the new chief economist for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.  (RFE/RL, 11.03.15).

Defense and Aerospace:

  • Roughly one third of this year's potential conscripts have been exempted from serving in the Russian military for medical reasons. (Moscow Times, 11.03.15).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • The Russian Interior Ministry’s branch in the North Caucasus said that "447 ringleaders and militants have been neutralized or detained" since January 1 in "1,345 successful security operations" held in the mainly Muslim-populated region. (RFE/RL, 10.30.15).
  • Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said Monday he had met with 20 young men — who had reportedly plotted to kill him — and forgiven them. (Moscow Times, 11.03.15).
  • VimpelCom, the Dutch-based telecom that is majority-owned by some of Russia's wealthiest businessmen, says it will set aside nearly $1 billion in reserves to deal with a spiraling multinational corruption investigation involving its investments in Uzbekistan. (RFE/RL, 11.04.15).
  • Russian businessman Alexander Grigoryev has been detained amid suspicions of heading a scheme involving dozens of banks and hundreds of people to channel $46 billion out of Russia. (Moscow Times, 11.03.15).

Crash of the Russian airliner in Egypt:

  • Russia and Egypt dismissed as “speculation” British suggestions Thursday that a bomb caused a Russian jetliner to crash in the Sinai Peninsula, while Britain drafted plans to bring home thousands of tourists amid concerns over airport security in the Egyptian resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh. (Washington Post, 11.05.15).
  • Preliminary information retrieved from the black boxes of a Russian passenger jet that crashed in Egypt doesn't reveal a cockpit discussion of some mechanical or system problem, according to one person familiar with the matter. (Wall Street Journal, 11.04.15).
  • Egyptian investigators say an internal explosion appears to have caused a Russian passenger jet to crash in the Sinai peninsula on October 31, killing all 224 people aboard -- most of them Russians. (RFE/RL, 11.04.15).
  • Evidence now suggests that a bomb planted by the Islamic State group is the likely cause of a Russian airliner's crash over Egypt's Sinai peninsula, U.S. and European security sources said on November 4. Intercepted communications played a role in the tentative conclusion that IS's Sinai affiliate planted the bomb, U.S. officials said. (RFE/RL, 11.04.15).
  • Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said the United States doesn’t have any “direct evidence” that terrorists downed a Russian airliner in Egypt Saturday, but said he couldn’t conclusively rule out that the Islamic State had the capability to shoot down such a craft. (FP, 11.02.15).
  • American military officials said Tuesday that satellite surveillance had detected a large flash of light just as a Russian chartered jet broke apart and fell from the sky over the Sinai Peninsula on Saturday. (New York Times, 11.04.15).
  • The Egyptian affiliate of Islamic State on Wednesday made a fresh claim of responsibility for downing the Russian jetliner that crashed in the Sinai Peninsula on Saturday.  (Wall Street Journal, 11.04.15).
  • The only reasonable explanation as to why the A321 airplane broke up in midair is an external impact, the administration of the Kogalymavia air carrier has said. (RBTH, 11.02.15).
  • The British government on Wednesday suspended flights to the Egyptian resort of Sharm el Sheikh over concerns that a chartered Russian jetliner might have been brought down in the Sinai Peninsula by a bomb on board. (New York Times, 11.04.15).

Foreign affairs and trade:

  • Syria:
    • Moscow's military force in Syria has grown to about 4,000 personnel, U.S. security officials and independent experts said. The Russians have suffered combat casualties, including deaths, said three U.S. security officials familiar with U.S. intelligence reporting, adding that they did not know the exact numbers. (Reuters, 11.04.15).
    • The commander of the Russian Air Force says Russia has deployed antiaircraft missile systems to Syria. (RFE/RL, 11.05.15).
    • U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland says Russia has deployed heavy artillery near the battlefield cities of Homs and Hama. (RFE/RL, 11.04.15).
    • Russia’s military claims it has carried out air strikes against "terrorist positions" in Syria, for the first time, based on information obtained from moderate Syrian opposition fighters who are battling President Bashar al-Assad's regime as well as Islamic State (IS) militants and Al-Qaeda fighters. (RFE/RL, 11.03.15).
    • Russian warplanes intensified their campaign against Islamic State targets near the ancient city of Palmyra, Moscow's Defense Ministry and monitoring groups said on November 2. (RFE/RL, 11.02.15).
    • Of the four types of Russian fixed-wing combat aircraft deployed so far to Humaymin air base in Latakia – the Sukhoi Su-34 Fullback and Su-24M2 Fencer conventional strike aircraft, the Su-25SM Frogfoot ground-attack aircraft, and the Su-30SM multi-role fighter – it is only the first, the Su-34, that has as of the end of October been seen using a ‘modern’ air-to-surface precision weapon. (IISS, 11.01.15).
    • The Russian and U.S. air forces held a joint practice for crews and ground services in case their aircraft in Syria come dangerously close. The two forces practiced notification, organization and coordination, data-sharing between the staffs of operative groups and the control and command posts of the Russian Air Force at the Hmeimim airbase and the strategic U.S. air operations center in Qatar. (RBTH, 11.04.15).
    • The U.S. and its regional allies agreed to increase shipments of weapons and other supplies to help moderate Syrian rebels hold their ground and challenge the intervention of Russia and Iran. (Wall Street Journal, 11.04.15).
    • Director of U.S. national intelligence, James Clapper, warned this week that the intervention in Syria today risked becoming for Russia what the intervention in Afghanistan became for the former Soviet Union in the 1980s. (Wall Street Journal, 11.04.15).
    • NATO's top commander Philip Breedlove says Russia's military deployment to Syria was aimed at showcasing Moscow's resurgent armed forces, but also to distract Western attention from the simmering conflict in Ukraine.  (RFE/RL, 10.30.15).
    • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has called for an agreement on a list of Syrian opposition groups that should be invited to UN-brokered peace talks. (RFE/RL, 11.04.15).
    • Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan talked on the phone to exchange opinions on the situation in Syria. (Interfax, 11.04.15).
    • Moscow's intervention in the Syrian conflict will have the unintended consequences of drawing Russia into a quagmire and alienating Sunni Muslims across the region, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Saturday. (Reuters, 11.01.15).
    • The Democratic Union party (known by its Kurdish acronym PYD) is discussing its ambitions for greater self-rule in Syria in diplomatic meetings with Russia. (Foreign Policy, 11.01.15).
  • Other countries:
    • Russia is not negotiating its involvement in the anti-terrorism operation in the territory of Iraq with the Iraqi authorities, and no formal request to this effect has been made, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said. (Interfax, 11.05.15).
    • Russia is already delivering air defense systems, as well as certain types of electronics to Iran, the head of Russia's state arms exporter Rosoboronexport said Monday. (Sputnik, 11.02.15).
    • International efforts to fight corruption should not be pushed on countries that are not ready for them yet, head of the presidential administration Sergei Ivanov said. (Moscow Times, 11.02.15).

Russia's neighbors:

  • Ukraine:
    • The ceasefire observed by all parties in the Ukrainian conflict has led to a 55 percent reduction in deaths and injuries among civilians in Donbass, UN said. (Russia Today, 10.31.15).
    • Chief diplomats of Germany, France, Russia, and Ukraine will meet on November 6 in Berlin to agree on the next steps in ending the Ukraine conflict. Heavy weapons withdrawal is one possible measure that could be considered. (RFE/RL, 11.05.15).
    • The Ukrainian government and Russia-backed separatists both threatened on November 4 to stop their ongoing weapons withdrawal if they keep coming under attack. (RFE/RL, 11.05.15).
    • Ukrainian authorities are failing to meet the basic needs of millions of people from the country's conflict-ridden east, a report said Tuesday, with those living in the region unable to access key services, facing major constraints on free movement and vulnerable to graft.   The report, published Tuesday by Nils Muiznieks, Commissioner for Human Rights of the Council of Europe, also raps separatist forces in the region for hindering access to humanitarian aid. (Wall Street Journal, 11.03.15).
    • The Council of Europe has criticized Ukrainian authorities for their investigation into a May 2014 fire in Odessa that killed more than 40 people. It said that the investigation had lacked "institutional and practical independence". (BBC, 11.04.15).
    • A court in Kyiv has set the date for the trial of two alleged Russian soldiers detained in Ukraine's east. A Kyiv court said on November 3 that the trial of Aleksandr Aleksandrov and Yevgeny Yerofeyev will start on November 10. (RFE/RL, 11.03.15).
    • Former education and science minister of Georgia Khatia Dekanoidze has been appointed as the Chief of the Ukrainian National Police. (Kyiv Post, 11.04.15).
    • A top Ukrainian prosecutor says unknown assailants have attempted to kill Prosecutor-General Viktor Shokin. (RFE/RL, 11.03.15).
    • Security forces in Ukraine have arrested Hennadiy Korban, who ran unsuccessfully for mayor of Kyiv last month. (RFE/RL, 11.01.15).
    • Ukraine’s Novoye Vremya weekly showed Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko ranked as the country's sixth-richest man. His assets reportedly rose by 20 percent to $979 million. (AFP, 11.01.15).
    • Russia's finance minister expressed concern about a possible rule change by the International Monetary Fund that would enable it to keep lending to Ukraine even if Kyiv defaults on its debt to Russia. (RFE/RL, 10.31.15).
    • Ukraine has prepaid gas for only 5 more days, Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said Monday. (Tass, 11.02.15).
  • Other neighbors:
    • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says that providing "comprehensive support" to Russian-speaking people living outside of Russia is "an unconditional foreign-policy priority for Russia." (RFE/RL, 11.02.15).
    • A Russian-built cargo plane belonging to a Tajik company has crashed in South Sudan's capital, Juba, killing at least 25 people. (RFE/RL, 11.04.15).
    • U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Vice Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Georgia Giorgi Kvirikashvili chaired the fifth plenary session of the U.S.-Georgia Strategic Partnership Commission on November 2. "We stand by the commitment we made in Bucharest that Georgia will become a member of NATO, and we continue to strongly support its aspirations on this path,” Blinken said.(State.gov, 11.02.15, 11.03.15).
    • The Georgian State Security Service says it is looking into leaked wiretapped recordings -- apparently featuring the voice of ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili -- as part of an investigation into an alleged "conspiracy to overthrow" the government. (RFE/RL, 10.30.15).
    • Azerbaijan's election authorities say the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) has won 69 seats in the country's 125-seat parliament, according to preliminary data. All of Azerbaijan's established opposition parties boycotted the vote, though some individual opposition candidates ran for spots in parliament. (RFE/RL, 11.02.15).
    • U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry got engaged in an effort to build an economic partnership with all five Central Asian states, whose foreign ministers he gathered in Uzbek president Islam Karimov's palace on Sunday for a first-of-its-kind effort to plot a regional trade relationship. Kerry also separately met presidents of the five states in the course of his mission meant to the five "Stans" that they are not forgotten as the United States draws down in nearby Afghanistan.  (New York Times, Washington Post, RFE/RL, 11.02.15, 11.03.15).
    • Kazakhstan's tenge currency fell to new lows on Thursday after the central bank decided to stop burning through reserves by propping it up and switched to a hands-off approach. The tenge's weighted average rate fell to 298.92 per dollar. (Reuters, 11.05.15).
    • Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev got the red carpet treatment at Buckingham Palace this week after signing billions of dollars in investment deals in London. Nazarbayev met British Prime Minister David Cameron and British businessmen and came away with 40 trade and investment deals worth around $5 billion, according to Nazarbayev's office. From London, Nazarbaev is scheduled to head to France, where he will meet President Francois Hollande (EurasiaNet, 11.05.15, RFE/RL, 11.03.15).
    • Kyrgyzstan's parliament has reappointed Temir Sariev as prime minister and approved his new cabinet. (RFE/RL, 11.05.15).

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