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Russia in Review

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Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for October 23-30, 2015

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin told a sitting of the Security Council on October 30 that he had ordered government agencies to audit and replenish stocks of means designed for defending Russian citizens from nuclear, chemical and bacteriological threats. (Dozhd, 10.30.15).
  • The Delegation for the European Union to Tajikistan says that under the EU Instrument contributing to Stability and Peace the European Union has supported Tajikistan with its Border Monitoring capabilities in Nuclear Security.        Six border crossing points selected by the Tajik authorities are now equipped with Radiation Portal Monitors able to detect any illicit trafficking and inadvertent movement of nuclear and radioactive materials. The Tajik Customs Training center was also equipped. (ASIPLU, 10.26.15).

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • Russia is currently modernizing the S-300 missile defense system for Iran and hopes it will able to deliver the system to Tehran, the head of Russia’s largest arms exporters said Tuesday. (Sputnik, 10.27.15).

NATO-Russia relations:

  • NATO countries are discussing increasing the number of troops stationed in members bordering Russia and putting them under formal alliance command, part of a new effort to deter aggression from Moscow, according to diplomats and military officers. Under one plan, NATO would have a battalion in Poland and each of the three Baltic states -- roughly 800 to 1,000 soldiers in each unit. A more modest version would have a single NATO battalion in the area. "We are not picking a fight; we aren't trying to provoke him," said a senior U.S. defense official.  Alexander Grushko, the Russian ambassador to NATO, said the alliance was already violating a 1994 agreement not to permanently station troops on Russia's border, and the idea of increasing the numbers was provocative.    (Wall Street Journal, 10.29.15).
  • Russian deputy minister Dmitry Rogozin, a deputy prime minister in charge of military industries said that “for the first time ever, the American strategists have developed an illusion ... that they may defeat a nuclear power in a non-nuclear war.” He added that “it’s nonsense, and it will never happen. Rogozin, who spoke after the Security Council’s meeting chaired by President Vladimir Putin, was commenting on prospective U.S. weapons under the so-called Prompt Global Strike program. (Washington Post, 10.30.15).
  • After getting caught flat-footed by Russia's actions in Ukraine and Syria, the US intelligence community has begun changing how it handles the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, the top military officer at NATO and the head of US European Command. (Defense News, 10.30.15)."Our force structure in Europe now is not adequate to the larger Russia task that we now see,” he said. (Defense News, 10.30.15).
  • The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan was taking part in a military exercise with South Korea in the Sea of Japan on Thursday when a pair of Russian bombers flew within one nautical mile of the ship, the Pentagon said. In response, the carrier scrambled four F/A-18. (New York Times, 10.30.15).
  • Russian submarines and spy ships are aggressively operating near the vital undersea cables that carry almost all global Internet communications. The alarm today is: The ultimate Russian hack on the United States could involve severing the fiber-optic cables at some of their hardest-to-access locations to halt the instant communications on which the West's governments, economies and citizens have grown dependent. There is no evidence yet of any cable cutting. (New York Times, 10.26.15).

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

  • No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

  • Russia initiated its campaign of air strikes in Syria primarily to prevent militants fighting with Islamic State (IS) from returning to their home countries in the former Soviet Union, says the head of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB). FSB Director Aleksandr Bortnikov estimated that people from more than 100 countries are now fighting for IS in Syria and Iraq, including "about 10 gangs…of citizens of Russia, Georgia, Ukraine, and Central Asian countries." He said that "major cells" of IS and Hizb ut-Tahrir "were neutralized in Moscow recently." (RFE/RL, 10.28.15).
  • Russia’s Federal Security Service on Wednesday warned of an increased risk of Taliban or Islamic State fighters invading Central Asia. SB director Alexander Bortnikov said in comments carried by Russian news agencies that a concentration of Taliban fighters, some of whom had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group, at Afghanistan's northern border make the risk of invasion tangible. (AP, 10.28.15).
  • Sharaputdin Arslanbekov, a police official in Makhachkala in charge of fighting extremism, said the official number of Dagestan residents who have left for Syria stands at 419, but reliable intelligence indicates that the actual figure is around 700, a significant share of an estimated 2,500 Russian citizens with IS. At least 20 from Novosasitli, a village of 2,000 people in Dagestan, have fought in Syria.  (AP, 10.28.15, Washington Post, 10.28.15).
  • Unidentified suspects thought to have recruited Moscow State University student Varvara Karaulova to join the Islamic State in May have been detained in Chechnya, Karaulova's lawyer said. A Moscow district court has arrested Karaulova on charges of attempting to recruit people to join the Islamic State (IS) militant group. (Moscow Times, 10.27.15, RFE/RL, 10.28.15).

Cyber security:

  • Thousands of followers have subscribed to Islamic State-related channels on the social-media platform called Telegram in recent weeks. Founded by a high-profile Russian programmer who fled that country last year, Telegram is designed to protect users' anonymity. (Washington Post, 10.30.15).
  • The European Parliament narrowly adopted a nonbinding but nonetheless forceful resolution on Thursday urging the 28 nations of the European Union to recognize Edward J. Snowden as a ''whistle-blower and international human rights defender'' and shield him from prosecution. (New York Times, 10.30.15).
  • Internet freedom in Russia has deteriorated this year, according to ratings by Freedom House monitoring organization, dropping to "not free" in 2015 from "partly free" in 2014. (Moscow Times, 10.29.15).

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Turkey’s state owned pipeline operator Botas announced it would take Russia’s Gazprom to international arbitration over a price discount it said it was promised on imports of Russian natural gas. (New Europe, 10.28.15).

Bilateral economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

  • Most GOP presidential contenders fume about Russia's new military incursion in Syria and talk of confronting Mr. Vladimir Putin there before it goes further. Donald Trump essentially welcomes the Russian intervention in Syria, saying Moscow is doing the world's dirty work by fighting Islamic State forces there. He acknowledges that Ukraine is a problem, but says it's largely the problem of Europe, and particularly of Germany. Overall, he says that as president he would have a “great" relationship with Mr. Putin. (Wall Street Journal, 10.26.15).
  • Three former employees of a Texas company were convicted Monday of taking part in a scheme to illegally export microprocessors and other technology to Russia. Alexander Posobilov, Shavkat Abdullaev and Anastasia Diatlova were convicted in federal court in Brooklyn after a month-long trial. (AP, 10.27.15).
  • A U.S. judge said convicted Russian arms trafficker Viktor Bout, who is serving a 25-year prison sentence, does not deserve a new trial on the basis of newly discovered evidence. U.S. District Judge Shira Scheindlin on October 26 said Bout did not meet the high legal standard of showing that his November 2011 jury conviction should be thrown out. Russia says it believes the case against Bout has been “fabricated by U.S. special services.” (RFE/RL, 10.27.15).

 

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

  • Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the budget shortfall for 2015 is expected to be 2.6 trillion rubles ($41 billion). He predicted the budget shortfall for 2016 at 900 billion rubles if oil prices remain around $45 per barrel and a ruble exchange rate of 62 rubles to the dollar. “This means that 2016 is the last year when we are able to spend our reserves in this way," he added. "After that, we will not have such resources."( RFE/RL, 10.27.15).
  • The World Bank reported October 27 that Russia's "Doing Business" rating rose 11 points to 51st place because of reforms addressing the registration of property, power supply reliability, and the transparency of electricity tariffs, among other measures. (RFE/RL, 10.28.15).
  • President Vladimir Putin will meet with the Russian Security Council’s members on October 30 to   discuss implementation of the Russian state policy in the nuclear, radiation, chemical and biological safety spheres. (Tass, 10.29.15).
  • Over the past decade Russia's population has broadly stabilized. Russia's population in 2015 was about 500,000 more than it was in 2005. In the Baltics, meanwhile, the past decade saw the loss of roughly 730,000 people. Since 1990, the Baltics have collectively lost 22% of their total populations.    (Forbes, 10.23.15).
  • More than half of Russians consider television the most trustworthy news source, the Interfax news agency reported Friday, citing the Levada Center, an independent pollster. Complete trust in the information shown on television has increased to 59 percent of poll participants, up from 47 percent in 2012. (Moscow Times, 10.23.15).

Defense and Aerospace:

  • Russia's defense spending is set to increase by a modest 0.8 percent next year, falling far short of the estimated 10 percent annual budget increases required over the next five years to hit equipment modernization targets mandated by President Vladimir Putin. (Moscow Times, 10.26.15).
  • A routine exercise aimed at testing the command system, in which missiles of various purposes were launched, has been conducted in the Russian Armed Forces, the Russian Defense Ministry has reported. The event involved the formations and military units of the Strategic Missile Troops, the Northern and Pacific fleets, the Caspian flotilla and the far-range aviation.  (Interfax, 10.30.15).
  • Former Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov — dismissed in 2012 after a corruption scandal involving a company run by his ministry — was appointed industrial director of the Rostec state corporation this week, Russian media reported Thursday. (Moscow Times, 10.30.15).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • Police in Moscow have detained 150 migrant workers on suspicion of links with Islamist militants. Investigators have seized “large amounts of banned literature” from the detainees, including the book “Muslim's Fortress” and images of the flag of the banned organization Hizb ut-Tahrir, Life News reported Monday. (Moscow Times, 10.27.15).
  • Authorities in Switzerland have reportedly frozen local assets controlled by former Russian Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik as part of an investigation into alleged money laundering. (RFE/RL, 10.28.15).
  • Armed, masked police raided a Moscow library specializing in Ukrainian literature, arresting its director before dawn on Thursday and carting off books that the authorities called illegal anti-Russian propaganda. (Reuters, 10.29.15).

Foreign affairs and trade:

  • Syria:
    • The Russian Air Force has conducted some 1,400 sorties in Syria since the start of Moscow's anti-terror operation. They have eliminated more than 1,600 terrorist targets in one month, the Ministry of Defense said. (Russia Today, 10.30.15).
    • Russian airstrikes near Aleppo targeted rebels from October 27-28 as the Syrian regime’s ground offensives suffered setbacks. Russian airstrikes were largely concentrated in rebel-held areas south of Aleppo City and within the city center according to local activist reporting.  Iranian state news claimed that Russian warplanes targeted ISIS and Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra near the Syrian Golan Heights on October 28. Local reporting in Syria has not yet substantiated these claims. (Institute for the Study of War, 10.28.15).
    • Nearly one-third of Russian attack planes and half of its transport aircraft in Syria are grounded at any time as the harsh, desert conditions take a toll on equipment and crews. (USA Today, 10.25.15).
    • Russia has sent a few dozen special-operations troops to Syria in recent weeks, Russian and Western officials say, redeploying the elite units from Ukraine as the Kremlin shifts its focus to supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. (Wall Street Journal, 10.23.15).
    • Russia has helped Iran deliver weapons into Syria twice a day over the past 10 days, western intelligence sources tell Fox News. (Fox News, 10.29.15).
    • A funeral was held in southern Russia on Wednesday for Vadim Kostenko, the first Russian contract soldier to die in Syria since Russia launched a military offensive there, as his relatives continued to dispute the official version that he killed himself. (Moscow Times, 10.28.15).
    • Russia has struggled to coordinate its airstrikes with pro-Assad ground forces, who speak a mix of Arabic, Persian and limited Russian, according to a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity in discussing internal assessments. (LA Times, 10.27.15).
    • Russian bombing and Iranian-backed forces have helped give Syrian President Bashar Assad's embattled forces an advantage in the country's bitter civil war, said Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. (LA Times, 10.27.15).
    • Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney who commanded fighter wings tells The Washington Times that the Russian campaign is “very definitely effective” because it has given new life to the beleaguered Syrian armed forces and to Mr. Assad himself. (Washington Times, 10.26.15).
    • U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said Russia appears to be "doubling down" on its support for Assad. “They need advisors, artillery and aviation to enable and support the Assad regime and Iranian forces [to attack] moderates who oppose the regime and are essential to Syria's political transition," he told the Senate committee. (LA Times, 10.27.15).
    • U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said "as high as 85% to 90%" of the Russian airstrikes use dumb bombs that "obviously increase the possibility of civilian casualties." . (LA Times, 10.27.15).
    • World leaders say progress has been made in talks to resolve Syria's civil war after "historic" talks in Vienna, but they continue to differ on the fate of President Bashar al-Assad. The Vienna talks involved Iran, Syria's ally, for the first time. As fighting in Syria raged, diplomats opened talks Friday seeking a pathway to end the country's grueling conflict. In the lead-up to the talks, Secretary of State John F. Kerry and his Russian counterpart have stipulated in near-daily conversations that their ongoing disagreement about where a Syrian political transition must end — with the United States insisting Assad must go, and Russia demanding the opposite — should not prevent the process from starting. (BBC, Wall Street Journal, 10.30.15, Washington Post, 10.29.15).
    • On what he called ''the resolution of the Assad problem,'' U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said he thought U.S. and Russia could reach an agreement on a process to address that question even if they currently disagree on the Syrian leader's role. Kerry and European officials have acknowledged in recent days that their efforts to stabilize Syria, as well as Iraq and Yemen, will likely be for naught without buy-in from Russia and Iran (New York Times, 10.24.15, Wall Street Journal, 10.26.15).
    • Antony Blinken, the deputy U.S. Secretary of State, said Russia appears to be growing increasingly wary of becoming entangled in the Syrian conflict, in a sign of U.S. hopes that Moscow will help negotiate a peace agreement that would ease Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power. Russia swiftly dismissed the comments, calling them an example of U.S. “ideology." (Wall Street Journal, 10.29.15).
    • Russians say quietly that they understand Assad is a problem, according to a European diplomat, and will tell John Kerry that the key is to organize a political transition first, after which Syrians can decide for themselves whether they want to keep Bashar al-Assad. (Bloomberg, 10.29.15).
    • Washington shares the goals that Russia pursues in Syria, particularly those concerning preservation of the Syrian statehood and state institutions, U.S. Ambassador John Tefft said.(Interfax, 10.30.15).
    • Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Friday that no country could use military force in Syria without first securing the agreement of the Syrian government. TASS said Ryabkov was responding to a question about the prospect of the United States launching a ground operation in Syria. (Reuters, 10.30.15).
    • Russian observers will monitor the parliamentary elections that Syria is expected to hold May 2016, State Duma deputy Sergei Gavrilov told reporters on Oct. 28. (Interfax, 10.28.15).
    • Representatives of the Free Syrian Army rebel group have sent Russia a proposal to hold talks on Syrian crisis in Cairo, Egypt. The Russian Foreign Ministry on Monday said it had hosted several delegations from the Western-backed Free Syrian Army, but representatives of the opposition alliance said the visit never happened. (Moscow Times, 10.27.15, Russia Today, 10.25.15).
    • A spokesman for Western-backed rebels in Syria says they will reject any offers of military assistance from Russia while it continues to bomb them. (RFE/RL, 10.26.15).
    • Three jihadist groups in Syria have formed a joint operations room in the Damascus countryside to combat the Syrian regime and Russian forces. The three organizations are Al Nusrah Front, Ahrar al Sham and Ajnad al Sham. (Long War Journal, 10.25.15).
    • The Kremlin says President Vladimir Putin has discussed the resolution of the Syrian crisis with the Saudi king. (AP, 10.26.15).
    • A Levada Center poll showed that Russians were not unified behind Vladimir Putin's intervention in Syria. The poll, conducted from Oct. 23-26, found that 53 percent of respondents approved of Russian policy in Syria, up from 39 percent a month earlier, before the bombing began. Those who said they did not approve doubled to 22 percent from 11 percent. (Moscow Times, 10.29.15).
    • Russia has said it opposes a draft United Nations Security Council resolution aimed at stopping barrel-bomb attacks in Syria, contending it could jeopardize international peace talks. (RFE/RL, 10.29.15).
    • The government of Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected claims by the New York-based Human Rights Watch that Russian air strikes in Syria may have caused dozens of civilian deaths. On October 25, Human Rights Watch called on Moscow to investigate reports that 59 civilians had been killed. (RFE/RL, 10.26.15).
    • Russia is demanding that foreign embassies in Moscow document what authorities called "outrageous" Western media reports that Russian air strikes have caused civilian deaths in Syria. (RFE/RL, 10.28.15).
  • Other countries:
    • Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has asked Moscow for artillery, small arms and Mi-35 helicopter gunships for his country's struggling military, Afghan and Russian officials say, after the U.S. and its allies pulled most of their troops from Afghanistan and reduced financial aid. "We will provide some assistance, but it doesn't mean that any soldier from the Russian Federation will be here on Afghan soil," Alexander Mantytskiy, Russia's ambassador to Afghanistan said.. (Wall Street Journal, 10.26.15).
    • Indian Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar said: “I have always seen Russia as an all-weather friend for India — the two countries have always had a great relationship.” (Tass, 10.29.15)
    • Around 2.5 million tourists from China visited Russia in 2015 and Russia expects a threefold rise in Chinese tourist arrivals by 2020. (Interfax, 10.28.15).
    • “It makes no sense to isolate Russia,” former French President Nicholas Sarkozy said before attending closed-door meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Without Russia we cannot provide responses to the serious causes and sharp crises which arise today. Anyone who forgets the fundamental role played by Russia has made a mistake. France has not done this.” (Foreign Policy, 10.29.15).
    • The Kremlin has called strange the allegations of the Montenegrin prime minister of Russian involvement in opposition protests and said it is expecting common sense to triumph.  (Interfax, 10.26.15).
    • The Financial Times of London newspaper reports the Germany’s Deutsche Bank is facing an expanded money laundering investigation by U.S. authorities into its activities in Russia amid evidence of possible violations of international sanctions.. (RFE/RL, 10.26.15).
    • The Philippines is looking to sign a number of pending agreements with Russia when Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the country for the 2015 APEC summit, the Philippine Information Agency reported. (Interfax, 10.27.15).
    • President Vladimir Putin on Monday accused Western governments and arms manufacturers of harming Russia's efforts to export its weaponry. (Moscow Times, 10.26.15).

Russia's neighbors:

  • Ukraine:
    • Preliminary results from Sunday's local elections in Ukraine indicate growing political diversity, say analysts, as no clear winners emerged. While the ruling bloc of President Petro Poroshenko lost mayoral and council seats in the key cities of Kharkiv and Odessa, it gained seats in a majority of regional councils. And the Opposition Bloc, made up of former allies of ousted President Viktor Yanukovich, gained some seats in the south and east. (Voice of America, 10.28.15).
    • Ukraine’s Western allies are preparing to accelerate planned changes to the International Monetary Fund’s lending policies to prevent Russia from stymieing a $25 billion rescue package for the war-torn nation (Wall Street Journal, 10.30.15).
    • German Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated Friday that there won't be a quick end to economic sanctions against Russia, stressing that their lifting hinges on the complete implementation of the Minsk peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. (Wall Street Journal, 10.23.15).
    • Flights between Ukraine and Russia are banned starting from October 25th despite a last-ditch effort by senior Russian officials to prevent the ban, Ukraine's infrastructure minister said.  (RFE/RL, 10.24.15).
    • Ukraine’s goods exports to Russia in January-August this year were less than half what they were a year earlier, and replacing that lost trade will be hard. (AP, 10.29.15).
    • Ukrainian authorities have opened a criminal investigation into former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi for his September visit to Crimea. (Moscow Times, 10.30.15).
    • A Ukrainian soldier has been killed by fire from Russia-backed separatists near the Donetsk airport, Ukrainian officials say.  ( RFE/RL, 10.27.15).
    • Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine's Luhansk region have agreed to lift a ban on humanitarian aid deliveries by UN agencies. (RFE/RL, 10.27.15).
    • There 5,500 statues in Ukraine when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. By the time of the Maidan uprising in Kiev that toppled the pro-Russian government in February 2014, Ukraine was down to about 1,300 Lenins, he says. Another 500 have come crashing down since. (New York Times, 10.27.15).
  • Other neighbors:
    • Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is focusing on trade ties during a weeklong journey across Central Asia. An agreement was reached for Japan to provide Kyrgyzstan with development of up to 130 billion yen (more than $1 billion). Abe has also visited Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, and will travel to Kazakhstan before returning to Japan. A Japanese trading house, Sumitomo Corp, said on October 26 that it has won a $300 million order to build a 400-megawat gas-fired power plant in Turkmenistan. Abe also said h is country will support Kazakhstan's project to build its first nuclear-power plant. (RFE/RL. 10.27.15, 10.26.15)
    • Security rather than human rights is likely to be uppermost in the minds of Central Asian policy makers at their one-on-one and group meetings during John Kerry’s tour of the region. He will visit all five countries during his 28 October–3 November foreign trip, which continues today in Austria. (TOL, 10.29.15).
    • State media in Turkmenistan are reporting that some 1,020 prisoners have been pardoned by President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov. (RFE/RL, 10.27.15).
    • Takhar Province government spokesman Sonatulah Taimor said on October 28 that the Taliban militants have taken control of Darqad district, which is on the country's northern border with Tajikistan. (RFE/RL, 10.28.15).
    • The Uzbek Interior Ministry said on October 29 that 16 suspected members of the Hizb ut-Tahrir organization have been apprehended. (RFE/RL, 10.29.15).
    • Visiting Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and his Turkmen counterpart Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov have vowed to boost bilateral cooperation in various sectors, including energy ties. (RFE/RL, 10.29.15).
    • The Moldovan parliament has voted overwhelmingly to dismiss the government of Prime Minister Valieriu Strelet. Strelet -- who was appointed on July 30 -- had said ahead of the vote that he would not resign amid large public demonstrations in Moldova over a massive bank fraud. (RFE/RL, 10.29.15).
    • The European Union suspended the bulk of its sanctions against Belarus, including an asset freeze and a travel ban on longtime President Alexander Lukashenko, in the bloc's biggest push yet to improve ties with the Minsk government. (Wall Street Journal, 10.30.15).
    • James Warlick, the U.S. co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group for settling the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, has confirmed that an OSCE monitoring team came under fire recently while crossing from the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh republic to Azerbaijan. (Interfax, 10.27.15).
    • Georgia is a rather probable candidate for the North Atlantic Alliance, NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs and Security Policy and NATO Secretary General's Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia James Appathurai has said. (Interfax, 10.26.15).

 

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