Russia in Review

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security:

2016 U.S. National Defense Authorization Act, which has been submitted to U.S. President Barack Obama, imposes limits on spending to dismantle retired nuclear weapons, and prohibits the use of any funds for dismantlement of any W-84 warheads. The Congress also continues to fully fund construction of the MOX fuel production facility. (Nukes of Hazard, 10.21.15).

Iran nuclear issues:

No significant developments.

NATO-Russia relations:

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai International Discussion Club on Thursday: “NATO is a military alliance. We are worried not about democracy on our borders, but about military infrastructure coming ever closer to our borders.” (RBTH, 10.23.15).
NATO has launched its biggest military exercise in 13 years, mobilizing 36,000 soldiers, sailors and airmen from more than 30 countries. NATO Deputy Secretary-General Alexander Vershbow told the opening ceremony Monday that the Trident Juncture exercise will demonstrate that NATO "can deal with everything from conventional military engagements to more subtle hybrid warfare techniques and propaganda." (Reuters, 10.19.15).
The Russian foreign ministry on Tuesday called plans by Estonia to expand its Amari air base to make more room for NATO aircraft a provocation. The ministry said it was reacting to a statement from the Estonian air force that it intended to expand Amari, where NATO bases some of its planes that patrol the Baltic to ensure Russian military planes steer clear of the area. (Reuters, 10.20.15).
"The alliance […] respects the NATO-Russia Founding Act which said that no NATO bases would be established in former Warsaw Pact countries. It’s not a treaty but it was an agreement. And so I think in order to keep the alliance together there won’t be much support by most nations to put a NATO base closer to Russia," Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the commanding general of the US Army in Europe, said. (Sputnik, 10.19.15).
American commanders in Europe have been forced to rely on weapons shipped back temporarily or hardware borrowed from allies in the expanding effort to deter the latest threats from Russia. “Practicing with British helicopters here is an essential part of it. Using British and German bridges, using Hungarian air defense is part of it,” Gen. Ben Hodges, the U.S. Army’s commanding general in Europe, said. (New York Times, 10.20.15).
The US Army is planning to set up more equipment caches in Europe, Gen. Dennis Via, the commander of Army Materiel Command, said. The U.S. Army was directed to build a brigade combat team, which will begin deploying to Europe on nine-month rotations. One challenge, Via noted, in adding activity sets is the Army has capped the number of soldiers it is allowed to send to Europe at 30,000. Lt. Gen. John Nicholson, commander of NATO’s Allied Land Command, said being able to quickly move soldiers and equipment helps deter aggressive actions in the first place. “If we get there late, then we may have to fight,” he said. (New York Times, 10.20.15, Defense News, 10.18.15).
Addressing the top naval officers in Europe at a meeting in Venice, Italy, U.S. Navy Adm. John Richardson, who recently became Chief of Naval Operations, said Russia has demonstrated growing prowess with its ships and demonstrated a willingness to use military coercion. Russian submarine patrols increased by more than 50% from 2013 to 2014, Adm. Richardson said, and its fleet has increased its range. “Enough has changed with the Russia threat, with migration issues, with the rise of information systems that it may be time to take another look at the NATO maritime strategy,” he said. (Wall Street Journal, 10.23.15).

Missile defense:

“Today the Iranian nuclear problem is solved, there was and is no threat from Iran, as we were saying. The reason that spurred our U.S. partners to build a missile defense system is gone," Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai Discussion Club. "We, and the whole world, were being misled once again, or put more simply, cheated," Putin said. “The whole purpose of this system is to reduce the nuclear capabilities of all countries but the USA itself to zero,” Putin said. (Interfax, 10.22.15, Kremlin.ru. 10.23.15).
The current draft of the U.S. 2016 National Defense Authorization Act provides for adding $30 million for an East Coast missile defense site the Pentagon does not want, and directing the Missile Defense Agency to chose a specific location 30 days after an environmental impact study is published. (Nukes of Hazard, 10.21.15).

Nuclear arms control:

In a surprise move, US Secretary of State John Kerry announced a new push to get the Senate to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. (Defense News, 10.21.15).
The current draft of the U.S. 2016 National Defense Authorization Act prohibits reducing the alert posture of the U.S. ICBM force. (Nukes of Hazard, 10.21.15).

Counter-terrorism:

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai International Discussion Club on Thursday: “It is impossible to combat terrorism in general if some terrorists are used as a battering ram to overthrow the regimes that are not to one’s liking.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.15).
During his meeting with Bashar al-Assad of Syria, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin repeated his previous statements that at least 4,000 men from Russia and the former Soviet republics who have gone to Syria to fight for the Islamic State represent a real danger should they come home. (New York Times, 10.22.15).
Twelve Russian citizens suspected by Ankara of having links to the Islamic State (IS) extremist group have been detained in Istanbul. According to reports, the 12 are from Russia's North Caucasus. One of the suspects, identified as Mohammed al-Haj, is reportedly from Chechnya, while the others were reported to be from Dagestan. (RFE/RL, 10.22.15).
Russia's main security agency said on Monday that it had foiled a plot to blow up a local commuter train in the southern Krasnodar region and detained the train's driver, who it said was connected to the Islamic State. The unidentified suspect, who the security agency said received instructions on how to build a bomb from an Islamic State representative, planned to travel to Syria to fight for the militant group. (New York Times, 10.20.15).
Ten people from Central Asia were arrested in Moscow and the surrounding region on Tuesday on suspicion of involvement with the Islamic State terrorist organization. This is the second mass arrest of people allegedly connected to the Islamic State since Russia announced an air offensive in Syria in order to fight terrorists on Sept. 30 (Moscow Times, 10.20.15).
A resident of Siberia's Krasnoyarsk region has been sentenced to more than two years in prison for attempting to join the ranks of the Islamic State militant group. (Moscow Times, 10.22.15).
A resident of the Spitamen district of the Sughd region in northern Tajikistan has been sentenced to 16 years in jail for fighting for ISIS in Syria and recruiting youngsters to the terrorist organization in Russia. (Interfax, 10.19.15).
The ‘Caucasus Emirate in Syria’ announced on October 21 that its military amir, Uvays ad-Dagestani was killed that day fighting against Syrian government forces south of Aleppo city.(Chechensinsyria.com, 10.22.15).

Cyber security:

A Ukrainian man pleaded not guilty October 19 to U.S. charges he orchestrated a scheme to steal computer users' online bank information and sell it on the black market. Sergey Vovnenko, who allegedly used aliases like "Darklife" and "Centurion," was charged in April in a six-count indictment that was unsealed last week.(RFE/RL, 10.20.15).
U.S. law enforcement agencies are investigating reports that Russian hackers infiltrated the Dow Jones business news service and stole information to trade on before it was made public. Dow Jones disclosed last week a breach of its systems that put payment-card and contact information of about 3,500 individuals at risk. (RFE/RL, 10.17.15).

Energy exports from CIS:

Russia beat Saudi Arabia to become the biggest seller of crude to China for the second time this year. Asia’s largest economy bought a record 4.04 million metric tons of crude from Russia, or about 988,000 barrels a day, in September. That’s 42 percent more than a year earlier .(Bloomberg, 10.21.15).
A meeting between Russia, Kazakhstan, and OPEC members in Vienna did not produce an agreement to cut oil production to try to bolster sagging prices, officials say.(RFE/RL, 10.22.15).

Bilateral economic ties:

No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has found that 60% of Americans believe Russia poses a “long-term military threat” while 14% said it is an “immediate” military threat. Just 23% said Russia is not a military threat. For both Democrats and Republicans, 60% said Russia poses a long-term threat. (Wall Street Journal, 10.21.15).
President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai International Discussion Club on Thursday: “And what should be done by those in Russia who love the US, and those in the US who love Russia? They must prompt society as a whole, the people who make decisions to see that in spite of the differences between our nations and our approaches to development there are nevertheless people in Russia who love the United States, which means that something about it deserves respect. And the reverse is also true.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.15).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

The approval rating of Russian President Vladimir Putin has reached a new height in October, totaling 89.9 percent, surpassing the previous record height of 89.1 percent in June, VTsIOM reported. (Interfax, 10.22.15).
The economic crisis in Russia is over and the government now must initiate structural reforms to restore economic growth, Russian Deputy Finance Minister Maksim Oreshkin said Wednesday. Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that the economy “isn’t in tatters,” and that the situation is “fully under the government’s control." (Bloomberg, Sputnik,10.21.15).
“We have entered a period of low prices for commodities, a long commodities cycle that’s ongoing and that will continue for a number of years,” Russian economy minister Alexei Ulyukayev said. “I don’t see any sharp slumps but, relatively speaking, the oil price will be $50, $50 plus for years.” (Bloomberg, 10.21.15).
Russia's official unemployment rate has risen 15 percent since the start of the year. (Moscow Times, 10.22.15).
While retail sales in Russia declined more than 10% in September, capital investment and industrial production fell but at a pace slower than previous months. Capital investment, considered the second-most important economic driver after consumer spending, dropped 5.6% in September from 6.8% in August, and the decline in industrial production slowed to 3.7%, its lowest contraction since March. (Wall Street Journal, 10.19.15).
Out of $2 billion invested in commercial property in Russia between January and September, foreign investors put up $848 million. (Moscow Times, 10.19.15).
The number of Russians booking foreign travel for the New Year's holidays has decreased fivefold over the past two years, dropping to 30,000. (Moscow Times, 10.21.15).

Defense and Aerospace:

Russia plans to build a military base on the Kuril Islands, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said. Shoigu has also said Russia will permanently deploy a military unit in the Arctic by 2018. Shoigu also said on October 22 that Russia was building several new bases in the Arctic -- including on Wrangel Island, Kotelny Island, and at Cape Schmidt -- as well as rebuilding six Soviet-era air bases there. (Reuters, 10.22.15, RFE/RL, 10.22.15).
Almost one-third of Russians think their nation's military is the most powerful in the world, according to a new poll published by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM). (Moscow Times, 10.17.15).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

President Vladimir Putin has decided to make unspecified changes to Russia's national security strategy before the end of the year. Russian law requires that the national security strategy be updated every six years. The current version of the document was approved by Putin on May 12, 2009. (Moscow Times, 10.22.15).
Russia's Federal Security Service said intelligence agents have detained nearly two dozen members of Hizb ut-Tahrir, which is a banned Islamist organization, in the Moscow region, TASS reported. (Moscow Times, 10.21.15).

Foreign affairs and trade:

Syria:
Russia and the United States signed an agreement on Tuesday that regulates all aircraft and drone flights over Syria, the defense departments of both countries announced. (New York Times, 10.21.15).
U.S. President Barack Obama has warned Russian leaders that they cannot "bomb their way to a peaceful solution" in Syria. (RFE/RL, 10.17.15).
Speaking before a gathering of global experts on Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday made his strongest pitch yet for cooperation between Washington and Moscow in Syria and beyond. ''We had this chance once after the end of the Cold War; unfortunately, we didn't use it,'' Putin told the Valdai Discussion Club. Another chance was missed during the terrorist upsurge in the early 2000s, he said. ''Syria, despite the dramatic situation there now, might become a model for partnership for the sake of our joint interests, for the resolution of our problems, which concern everyone, for working out an effective system of risk management,'' Putin said. (New York Times, Wall Street Journal, 10.23.15).
Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai International Discussion Club on Thursday in reference to potential Western-Russian cooperation in Syria: “We see that contacts are being gradually established between military departments within the anti-terrorist operation framework…We are also close to starting an exchange of information with our western colleagues on militants’ positions and movements. …The military people are the most responsible it seems, and I hope that if they can reach agreements, we will be able to reach agreements at the political level too.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.15).
President Vladimir Putin said he has received permission from his Syrian counterpart to offer support to rebels in Syria who are prepared to "really fight" against Islamic State extremists . ''What would be your view if we were to support their efforts in fighting the Islamic State in the same way we are supporting the Syrian Army?'' Mr. Putin said he asked, and Mr. Assad answered, ''I would view that positively.'' He added that any partition of Syria was “unacceptable”, as it would mean leaving parts of the country in terrorist hands. (New York Times, Wall Street Journal, 10.23.15).
Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai International Discussion Club on Thursday: “It is the Syrians themselves who must formulate this process, its principles and final goals, what they want and how they will achieve it. By the Syrians themselves, I am referring to the lawful government and the opposition forces.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.15).
Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai International Discussion Club on Thursday: “The division of Syria is totally unacceptable.” (RBTH, 10.23.15).
Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai International Discussion Club on Thursday in reference to Syria: “We have no plans to expand military operations involving Russia’s Aerospace Forces.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.15).
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia called his counterpart, Bashar al-Assad of Syria, to Moscow for an unannounced visit to discuss their joint military campaign and a future political transition in Syria, the Kremlin announced on Wednesday. “On the question of a settlement in Syria, our position is that positive results in military operations will lay the basis for then working out a long-term settlement, based on a political process that involves all political forces, ethnic and religious groups,” Mr. Putin said. Kommersant’s sources didn’t rule out that the two leaders may have discussed early presidential elections in Syria. (New York Times, Kommersant, 10.21.15).
Russia is pushing for early presidential elections in Syria that may give President Bashar al-Assad a fresh mandate, hardening opposition to demands for his ouster from the U.S. and its allies. Assad would decide himself to run or not, a senior official in Moscow said, asking not to be identified because the matter is confidential. (Bloomberg, 10.22.15).
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday discussed with Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud Syrian problems and the results of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s visit to Russia. Earlier Wednesday, Putin held a phone conversation with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (Tass, 10.21.15).
When asked whether Syria’s next government has to be headed by Assad, Russian premier Dmitry Medvedev replied: “No, absolutely not.” (Vesti v Subbotu, 10.17.15).
The United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey put forward new ideas Friday to revive a failed push for a political transition in Syria that could end the country's civil war, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Friday. But they remained deeply divided over the future of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that at the Friday meeting he suggested that these nations join a Russian-Jordanian, Amman-based mechanism coordinating military air operations in Syria. (Military Times, 10.23.15, Interfax, 10.23.15).
Russia and Jordan have agreed to coordinate the activities of their armed forces in Syria through a specialized working mechanism in Jordan's capital Amman, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said. (Interfax, 10.23.15).
Russia's Defense Ministry says it has established direct contact with Turkey's military about Russian military aircraft in Syria, just hours after Turkey shot down an unidentified drone aircraft that crossed from Syria into Turkish airspace. (RFE/RL, 10.16.15).
Chief of Russian presidential staff Sergei Ivanov said: “ Our troops will not be involved in clashes on the ground….Apart from the air pilots and the maintenance personnel based in Latakia there is a small commando unit responsible for guarding the airbase.”(Tass, 10.19.15).
Russia's operation in Syria will not be lingering, and its time limits will depend on the results of the fight against terrorists, speaker of Russia's Federation Council Valentina Matviyenko said. (Tass, 10.19.15).
Russian defense ministry statements of targets hit by the Russian Air Force and an online archive of Russian military maps show Russia has hit 64 named locations since President Vladimir Putin ordered the first round of air strikes three weeks ago. Of those targets, a maximum of 15 were in areas held by Islamic State, according to the Institute for the Study of War. (Reuters, 10.21.15).
A Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said ISIS and Al-Qaeda’s Al Nusfra Front are conducting negotiations on joining their efforts in Syria. (Gazeta.ru, 10.21.15).
Russian troops in Syria claim in a TV interview that they’ve “been there since the beginning and will stay to the end.” One soldier, identified by France24 as a military advisor sent to Latakia to help train members of the Syrian military, said he isn’t very happy with the trainees’ attitudes. (Foreign Policy, 10.22.15).
Russian air strikes in Syria are costing Moscow up to $4 million per day, data collated by IHS Jane's shows. (Moscow Times, 10.21.15).
Russia's Defense Ministry has denied that any of its soldiers have died recently in Syria, after a report that three Russians were killed in fighting there. (RFE/RL, 10.20.15).
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter said recently that he provided maps of Islamic State positions in Syria to the Russian embassy in Washington. (Free Beacon, 10.20.15).
- Other countries:
  - Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai International Discussion Club on Thursday: “If fight is inevitable, you want to hit first.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.15).
  - Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Tuesday that the Iraqis had promised they would not request any Russian airstrikes or support for the fight against ISIS. (CBS, 10.20.15).
  - Iraq's ruling alliance and powerful Shi'ite militias have urged Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to request Russian air strikes on Islamic State militants. (RFE/RL, 10.21.15).
  - Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai International Discussion Club on Thursday: “We contribute in the direction of Iraq by supplying weapons and ammunition. We cooperate not only by supplying arms and military equipment, but also by sharing information through a center established by representatives of Iraq, Russia and Syria. But we do not plan to expand it.” (RBTH, 10.23.15).
  - Russia plans to open a $5 billion credit line for Iran to help finance joint infrastructure projects in the country, officials said. (RFE/RL, 10.23.15).
  - The Swiss military says one of its fighter jets carried out a routine identification check on a Russian plane inside Swiss air space, triggering a complaint from Moscow. Russia had first accused a French military jet of coming into "dangerous proximity" with the Tupolev, which was carrying State Duma speaker Sergei Naryshkin and other Russian lawmakers to an international meeting of parliamentarians in Geneva, Switzerland. (RFE/RL, 10.19.15).
  - "I want to tell you that Russia is India's tried and tested partner and a real friend. Our foreign policy towards Russia has always been the same," India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj said. (Indian Express, 10.20.15).
  - The Russian government has approved the allocation to the Cuban authorities a state export credit for up to 1.2 billion euro for financing the construction of four generating units for thermal power plants (TPP) on the island. (Interfax, 10.20.15).
  - Europe and Russia will team up to send a spacecraft to an unexplored part of the dark side of the moon — which will try and find out whether humans might be able to live there. (Independent, 10.20.15).
  - Norway's government said it would soon start returning some asylum seekers to Russia. Police say some 1,600 Syrians and other migrants have reached the Scandinavian country by crossing the Arctic and the Storskog border station dividing northern Russia from Norway. (RFE/RL, 10.21.15).

Russia's neighbors:

Ukraine:
- President Petro Poroshenko faces a test of his unpopular belt-tightening measures when Ukraine votes in local elections on October 25. The popularity of Poroshenko's government has fallen so sharply that Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk's approval ratings are now barely above zero. (RFE/RL, 10.23.15).
- Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai International Discussion Club on Thursday: “Ukraine genuinely is a brotherly country in our eyes, a brotherly people. I don’t make any distinction between Russians and Ukrainians.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.15).
- Chief of Russian presidential staff Sergei Ivanov said: “Ukraine is a special case….We are one Slavic people, there's no arguing about that.” (Tass, 10.19.15).
- Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai International Discussion Club on Thursday: “The United States has a law that concerns Ukraine, but it directly mentions Russia, and this law states that the goal is democratization of the Russian Federation.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.15).
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said a European Union free trade agreement with Ukraine is not directed against Russia. (RFE/RL, 10.23.15).
- Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian insurgents said Tuesday they had begun withdrawing tanks and smaller weapons from the front line in the devastated Donetsk region in the ex-Soviet state's eastern war zone. (AFP, 10.20.15).
- Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Valdai International Discussion Club on Thursday: “If we want to achieve lasting peace in the southeast of Ukraine and reconstruction of the country's territorial integrity, there is no other way except the implementation of the Minsk agreements.” (RBTH, 10.23.15).
- Advanced radar systems being shipped to Ukraine to counter artillery strikes by pro-Russia separatists have been modified to prevent them from peering into Russia, according to U.S. officials. (Wall Street Journal, 10.21.15).
- The fall in industrial production in Ukraine in September 2015 compared to the same month in 2014 slowed down to 5.1% against 5.8% in August, 13.4% in July, and 18.1% in June, the State Statistics Service has reported. (Interfax, 10.19.15)
- Fitch Ratings forecasts Ukraine's GDP will contract by 10% by the end of the year, the agency said in a press release on Wednesday. (Tass, 10.21.15).
- The ratings agency Standard and Poor's has upgraded Ukraine's credit rating from "selective default" after Kyiv managed to strike a major debt write-down deal. (RFE/RL, 10.19.15).
Other neighbors:
- Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has dismissed his powerful security minister Eldar Makhmudov. Authorities in Azerbaijan have also arrested seven security officials accusing them of abuse of power. (RFE/RL, 10.17.15, 10.20.15.).
- The next round of talks between Russia and Georgia on normalizing bilateral ties will be held in Prague in mod-November. (RFE/RL, 10.23.15).
- Meeting on October 19 with visiting Russian presidential official Vladislav Surkov, de facto South Ossetian President Leonid Tibilov announced he plans to initiate a referendum on the region's incorporation into the Russian Federation. (RFE/RL, 10.20.15).
- Hundreds of protesters rallied in Tbilisi October 22 against the Georgian government's alleged attempts to silence the country's biggest and most popular television channel, raising fears of a political crisis. (RFE/RL, 10.23.15).
- The recent offensive launched by forces of Afghan Vice President Abdul Rashid Dostum has chased several dozen Taliban militants to an island in the Amu-Darya, the river that divides Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. (RFE/RL, 10.23.15).
- Kyrgyz police killed a suspected Islamist militant escapee from prison in a shoot-out. (RFE/RL, 10.23.15).
- A Kazakh citizen has been charged with inciting separatism by posting a poll on the Internet on the possibility of the East Kazakhstan region joining Russia. (RFE/RL, 10.21.15).
- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev warned the government to prepare for economic pain, saying a “real crisis is coming.” (Bloomberg, 10.19.15).
- Tumbling energy prices will cut economic growth across oil exporters Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan from 5.4 per cent in 2014 to 3.8 per cent this year, the IMF forecasts. (Financial Times, 10.23.15).

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