Russia in Review

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for  October 9-16,  2015

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for  October 9-16,  2015

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security:

• At a recent Democratic presidential debate, the candidates were asked to identify the biggest threat the U.S. national security. Hillary Clinton, the candidate on stage with the most federal government experience, stated that she most worried over “nuclear material that can fall into the wrong hands.” She continued, “I know the terrorists are constantly seeking it, and that’s why we have to stay vigilant, but also united around the world to prevent that.”  (War On the Rocks, 10.16.15).
• Director of the U.S. Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies Al Mauroni said: “As long as we have public officials proclaiming that they cannot sleep at night because of the threat of nuclear terrorism, we cannot have a serious and reasoned approach to this issue. The fact remains that the overwhelming threat from terrorist groups will stem from their use of high-yield explosives, automatic rifles, and kidnappings that lead to executions, despite countless analysts who insist that terrorists are on the verge of having doomsday devices, nuclear or otherwise.”  (War On the Rocks, 10.16.15).
• Reports that Eastern European criminals have been caught in the past five years attempting to sell radioactive materials to terrorists underscores the constant concern such activity poses for the city, NYPD Commissioner William Bratton said. “It just reinforces that this issue is not going away," Bratton said when asked about a series of undercover operations reported by The Associated Press that nabbed suspects in Moldova accused of trying to sell bomb-grade uranium and cesium to extremists. (Congressional Documents and Publications, 10.09.15).
• A new report by the London-based NGO Chatham House warned that the civilian nuclear facilities, chiefly power plants, could be the target in the next wave of cyber-terrorism.  (The Epoch Times, 10.13.15).

Iran nuclear issues:

• No significant developments.

NATO-Russia relations:

• Western allies must begin modernizing their deterrence in order to keep the peace in Europe, making new investments in cyber-defenses and early-warning systems in the face of a resurgent Russia, NATO’s top official said Monday. “There is no contradiction between being strong and being engaged,” Jens Stoltenberg said. “On the contrary, I believe that a strong defense forms the basis for a constructive relationship with Russia. But there must be no doubt. Engagement is not the same as accepting a new status quo, or giving Russia a free hand.” (Wall Street Journal, 10.12.15).
• U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said that the U.S. Army would have a central role in a revamped strategy to contain Russia. "That's why we'll continue to need the Army's posture and presence in Europe, reassuring allies and reminding adversaries of our unmatched capabilities, strength, reach and readiness," Carter said. On Syria, Carter said Putin seemed to be embarked upon the same aggressive course he has followed in other regions. "This is a new reality for us strategically, but it looks like it's here to stay," he said.(Military.com, 10.14.15).

Missile defense and nuclear arms control:

• Moscow calls on Washington and Bucharest to give up the plans to deploy on the U.S. missile defense facility in Romania MK-41 systems. “This step will also be a massive breach of the INF Treaty, along with the use of target missiles and attack drones," according Mikhail Ulyanov, director of the non-proliferation and arms control department of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Assistant Secretary of State Frank A. Rose said: “Accusations leveled by the Russian representative against my country last Friday are utterly baseless. U.S. missile defense is not directed against Russia’s or China’s strategic nuclear forces. Furthermore, the United States has always been, and remains, in full compliance with all of its NPT and INF Treaty obligations.”  (Interfax, 10.12.15, State.gov, 10.12.15).

Counter-terrorism:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin has cited the dangers of Islamic State  militants potentially carrying out terrorist attacks in Russia in defending Moscow’s decision to carry out air strikes against positions held by the extremist group in Syria. Putin said that the threat of terrorism in Russia “had already existed” before Moscow began bombing targets in Syria. Both the Islamic State group and Al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, the Al-Nusra Front, this week called for attacks against Russia, as Russian air strikes in Syria continue -- though not against IS targets.. (RFE/RL, 10.14.15, 10.11.15).
• Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “I do not understand some of our colleagues in Europe and the United States though, when they say they are fighting terrorism, but we see no real results. What’s more, it’s a well-known fact that the Americans have shut down the program to train the Free Syrian Army….They would have done better to give $500 million to us, and we would have put it to better use in terms of fighting international terrorism, that’s for sure.” (RBTH, 10.12.15).
• A court in Moscow has sent three men to pretrial detention on suspicion of plotting a terrorist attack in the Russian capital. The chief of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), Aleksandr Bortnikov, said on October 13 that the suspects were among a group of 12 Russian citizens who were detained in Moscow on October 11. One of them arrived in Russia from Syria to organize a terrorist attack in Moscow, according to Bortnikov. Bortnikov said all of the detained individuals were members and supporters of the Islamic State group.(RFE/RL, 10.13.15).
• Russia's Investigative Committee said that Islamic State fighters were behind an attempted attack on a mosque in a Siberian town in 2014. It said on October 15 that it had completed its investigation into the incident and had submitted a criminal case against two men to a court. (RFE/RL, 10.16.15).
• Police in Berlin have detained a Muslim cleric from Russia's North Caucasus republic of Dagestan on suspicion of recruiting fighters for the Islamic State  terrorist group. The 30-year-old imam from the Fussilet 33 Islamic center in Berlin's Moabit neighborhood is accused of recruiting IS fighters online and of sending military equipment, such as night vision goggles and telescopes, to Islamist groups in Syria. (Moscow Times, 10.16.15).

Cyber security:

• Russia's media watchdog has taken action against almost 900 webpages supporting the Islamic State. (Moscow Times, 10.14.15).
• Along with reported computer breaches of a French TV network and the White House, a number of attacks now being attributed to Russian hackers and some not previously disclosed have riveted U.S. intelligence officials as relations with Russia have deteriorated. These targets include the Polish stock market, the U.S. House of Representatives, a German steel plant that suffered severe damage and The New York Times. “Russia has never waged cyberwarfare against anyone," Andrey Akulchev, a spokesman for the Russian Embassy in Washington, said in a written statement Friday. "Russia believes that the cyber sphere should be used exclusively for peaceful purposes." (Wall Street Journal, 10.13.15, Bloomberg, 10.14.15).
• In total, at least 29 countries have formal military or intelligence units dedicated to offensive hacking efforts. Some 50 countries have bought off-the-shelf hacking software that can be used for domestic and international surveillance. (Wall Street Journal, 10.13.15).
• The U.S. Department of Justice said authorities disrupted a sophisticated cyber theft scheme and arrested its Moldovan perpetrator. The Moldovan administrator, Andrey Ghinkul, was arrested on August 28 in Cyprus, and the United States is seeking his extradition on multiple charges including criminal conspiracy, wire fraud, and bank fraud, the department said. (RFE/RL, 10.14.15).

Energy exports from CIS:

• Gazprom resumed deliveries to Ukraine on Monday, after halting exports in July, reducing the risk of disruption to supplies to the rest of Europe this winter. Deliveries were resumed after Ukraine paid $234 million of a total $500 million prepayment expected for gas in October. (Wall Street Journal, 10.12.15).
• Russia's oil czar Igor Sechin warned that the country's crude production could drop by around 5% a year if the government pushes through plans to increase taxes on the industry to plug holes in the federal budget. (Wall Street Journal, 10.13.15).

Bilateral economic ties:

• Aeroflot is seeking to get out of an agreement to buy Dreamliners from Boeing Co. as the country struggles through a recession, according to Chief Executive Officer Vitaly Savelyev. (Bloomberg, 10.14.15).

Other bilateral issues:

• The Pentagon announced Friday that it would not grant the United Launch Alliance a waiver allowing it to bypass a congressional ban on Russian-made engines that the company has said it desperately needs to compete in the multibillion-dollar national security launch market. ULA needs at least 14 to compete to launch national security payloads, such as spy and communications satellites. (Washington Post, 10.11.15).
• The number of Russians entering a competition to win the right to permanently reside in the U.S. has grown by 58 percent — nearly 100,000 people — since 2012, the Znak.com news website reported Monday, citing U.S. Embassy spokesman Will Stevens. (Moscow Times, 10.12.15).
• A survey conducted by the independent Levada Center has revealed that the United States is still seen as an enemy by the overwhelming majority in Russia, news reports said. A record high of 71 percent of respondents pointed to the US playing a negative role in the world, according to the poll. (Sputnik, 10.14.15).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia has reached the peak of its economic crisis, if not passed it, and the situation in the country is stabilizing, President Vladimir Putin said. Russia will return to growth in the coming years, Putin said. (Bloomberg, 10.13.15).
• Russia has recorded its first quarterly net capital inflow in five years, with $5.3 billion flowing into the country from July to September, according to preliminary Central Bank data published Friday. (Moscow Times, 10.11.15).
• Standard & Poor’s said Thursday that the Russian economy would contract by 3.6 percent this year and grow by only 0.3 percent in 2016. It had earlier predicted a 2.6 percent contraction for this year and 1.9 percent growth in 2016. (Moscow Times, 10.16.15).
• Russia’s VTB Capital said it earned at least half of the domestic investment banking fees for mergers and acquisitions this year as the nation’s companies retreat from overseas exchanges. (Bloomberg, 10.14.15).
• Russia's Justice Ministry has deleted 10 NGOs from the list of “foreign agents,” the. Four of them were excluded from the list because they “stopped performing the functions of a foreign agent,” while the other six were removed because they had closed down for good. (Moscow Times, 10.12.15).
• Sergei Guriev, former Russian government adviser who’s living in self-imposed exile in Paris is about to be appointed chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the first time a citizen of Russia will hold this position, two people familiar with the matter said. (Bloomberg, 10.14.15).

Defense and Aerospace:

• The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) received 75 planes and helicopters in the third quarter of the year. Of the 75 planes and helicopters added, 49 are older aircraft that have been modernized, Deputy Defense Minister Yury Borisov said. (Moscow Times, 10.09.15).
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that the launch of the new Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Amur Region of the country's Far East, which is currently under construction, is to be postponed until 2016. (RBTH, 10.14.15).
• The Russian industry has delivered the first two satellites of Russia’s new-generation early-warning system known as EKS. The first launch of a new satellite is expected to take place in November-December 2015.  (Russianforces.org, 10.09.15).
• On 24 September 2015 Russia launched a construction of an early-warning radar node, reportedly of the Voronezh-M type, near Vorkuta. The radar, which has been in the plans since at least 2013, will probably replace the old Daryal radar in Pechora. (Russianforces.org, 10.14.15).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The acting chief of Russia's environmental watchdog has been detained on suspicion of running an organized crime group that received bribes from companies in exchange for licenses to operate hazardous industrial sites, Russia's Investigative Committee said. Police confiscated about 7 million rubles ($114,000) during a search at the Moscow apartment of Vladimir Ivchenko, the acting chief of Rostekhnadzor, the national environmental, technological and nuclear watchdog agency. (Moscow Times, 10.16.15).
• Russia's human rights ombudswoman has asked the Investigative Committee to look into the allegations of the Pskov regional governor’s involvement in a near-deadly attack against prominent journalist Oleg Kashin. (Moscow Times, 10.16.15).
• The Moscow City Court on October 14 found Yuri Soloshenko, the 73-year-old former head of the Znamya electronics plant in Poltava, guilty of spying after a trial behind closed doors. The Russian Federal Security Service said that Soloshenko was arrested in Moscow in August 2014 while trying to buy secret components for the S-300 air-defense missile system. The number of convictions for treason in Russia tripled in 2014. (RFE/RL, 10.15.15, Moscow Times, 10.14.15).

Foreign affairs and trade:

• Syria:
  • On October 9 sixty-seven combat flights were completed from the Hmeimim airbase by Russian warplanes, according to chief of the Russian Air Force's Main Staff Lt. Gen. Igor Makushev said. (Interfax, 10.09.15).
  • On October 10 Russia said that its military forces in Syria had carried out 64 combat sorties against 55 targets over the last 24 hours. (RFE/RL, 10.10.15).
  • On October 11 Russian Defense Ministry said that its planes had flown 64 sorties in the past 24 hours, destroying terrorist training camps and an artillery battery. (Slon.ru, 10.11.15).
  • On October 12 the Russian Ministry of Defense said its jet fighters had carried out 55 sorties over the past 24 hours, hitting targets in the provinces of Homs, Hama, Latakia, Idlib and Raqqa. The Russian military said Su-34, Su-24 and Su-25 fighters hit Islamic State field headquarters, training camps and weapons arsenals in the latest bombing runs. (Wall Street Journal, 10.12.15).
  • On October 12 Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said that precision strikes of Russian Sukhoi Su-24M bombers and Su-25 attack aircraft destroyed a mortar position, a truck convoy and a control post of ISIS over the past day, told reporters on Oct. 12. (Interfax, 10.12.15).
  • On October 13 Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said that airplanes of Russia's Aerospace Force operating in Syria had flown 88 missions from the Hmeimim airbase and have bombed 86 ISIS targets in the past 24 hours. (Interfax, 10.13.15).
  • On October 14 Syrian forces backed by Russian airstrikes began a new offensive aimed at breaking rebel control of a crucial highway between Homs and Hama. Russia said on October 14 its planes had carried out 41 strikes in Syria in the last 24 hours.  (Vedomosti, Interfax, 10.16.15).
  • On October 15 Russian warplanes flew 33 sorties in the past 23 hours, supporting the Syrian Army’ long-planned offensive in northern Homs Province. The Russian strikes appeared to target various rebel factions — including West-backed groups and Al Qaeda-linked insurgents — but not Islamic State, the breakaway Al Qaeda group that Moscow says is its principal target. (RFE/RL, Dni.ru, Los Angeles Times, 10.15.15).
  • All the planes of Russia's air force fighting the Islamic State terrorist group in Syria have returned to their base after accomplishing their missions, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov has said. (Interfax, 10.16.15).
  • Russia plans to build a "unified military base" in Syria to serve as the base for its operations against Islamic State militants. Deputy Chief of the General Staff Andrei Kartopolov said it would be "a single base to include several components -- naval, air, and ground forces." (RFE/RL, 10.16.15).
  • Rough estimates suggest that Moscow has spent at least $87 million for air and cruise-missile strikes in the first two weeks of its bombing campaign in Syria that began September 30. (RFE/RL, 10.12.15).
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has called on countries interested in securing a solution to the Syrian crisis to cooperate with the Baghdad information center, which has been established by Russia, Iran, Iraq and Syria. “We call on all sides concerned to join the work of this information center," Putin told a CIS summit in Kazakhstan on Oct. 16. (Interfax, 10.16.15).
  • President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday slammed Washington for refusing to share intelligence with Russia on Syria, and accusing it of muddled thinking. "I believe some of our partners simply have mush for brains," Putin said. Putin said Washington did not seem interested in a visit he had proposed by a high-level political and military delegation to coordinate actions in Syria. The Russian delegation would be led by the prime minister, Dmitri A. Medvedev, and include senior military and intelligence officials, he said. The White House dismissed the proposal by Putin to send Medvedev to discuss Syria. White House spokesman Josh Earnest called the Russian offer a sign of "desperation." "We're not interested in doing that, as long as Russia is not willing to make a constructive contribution to our counter-[Islamic State] effort," Earnest said.  (RFE/RL, 10.15.15, AFP, 10.13.15, New York Times, 10.14.15).
  • Russia’s Ministry of Defense said Friday that the U.S. and Russian militaries had reached agreement on coordinating airspace over Syria, amid concerns about an inadvertent confrontation between military aircraft. (Wall Street Journal, 10.16.15.)
    
  • Russian Ministry of Defense spokesman said Wednesday that a Russian jet moved to around two or three kilometers from the U.S. plane, “not to intimidate, but to identify the object.” (Wall Street Journal, 10.14.15).
  • Russia's Defense Ministry announced on Thursday that it had established a hotline with the Israeli military to avoid clashes in the sky during operation in Syria. On Wednesday, representatives of both sides used the hotline to inform each other about their plans, the ministry said in a statement. (New York Times, 10.16.15).
  • U.S. presidential democratic candidates focused heavily on the roles of the U.S. and Russian militaries in Syria during their first debate Tuesday night. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton advocated a coalition no-fly zone for Syria as a method of helping push Syrian ally Russia to engage with others in the region and work toward a political solution. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders said he thinks Putin is going to regret Russia's recent actions and is already doing so when it comes to Crimea and Ukraine. (Voice of America, 10.14.15).
  • The latest American plan to aid Syrian fighters battling the Islamic State hit a bump on Wednesday, as Turkish officials summoned the American ambassador to express concern that the United States was providing new support to Kurdish militants in Syria that Turkey considers a primary enemy. But in a twist, Turkey also summoned the Russian ambassador over concerns that Russia, too, was helping the Kurds. This could suggest that there is at least one area -- supporting Kurdish militias -- where American and Russian interests inside Syria may converge. (New York Times, 10.15.15).
  • Alaeddin Boroujerdi, chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of Iran's parliament, said his country's cooperation with Russia, Syria, and Iraq has proved "successful" in fighting terrorism in the region. (RFE/RL, 10.14.15).
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Moscow is helping fight against Islamist State (IS) militants in Iraq with the consent of the Baghdad government. A new intelligence center in Baghdad currently staffed by Russian, Iraqi, Iranian, and Syrian officials remained open to all interested parties. (RFE/RL, 10.14.15).
  • The Russian government said it had summoned the British military attaché in Moscow on Sunday for an explanation after a British tabloid newspaper reported that Royal Air Force pilots had been given the green light to shoot at Russian jets if threatened. A U.K. Foreign Office spokeswoman said the report was untrue. (Wall Street Journal, 10.12.15).
  • On October 11^th Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir described the meeting as “clear, frank and constructive" but said his country's stance on Syria wouldn't change. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after the meeting, that both countries are willing to cooperate in dealing with the Syria conflict and want to prevent the emergence of a "terrorist caliphate." (Wall Street Journal, 10.12.15, RFE/RL, 10.11.15).
  • European foreign ministers called for an immediate end to Russian attacks on Syrian opposition groups on Monday, saying Moscow's military intervention risks prolonging the war and undermining a political solution for the country. A statement by the foreign ministers on Monday afternoon said Moscow's attacks on the moderate opposition are of “deep concern" and must cease immediately. At the same time EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, has said that Russia must play an important role in the political efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis.  Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Meshkov rejected the EU criticism on Monday and said it is “perfectly clear to everyone" that Moscow's airstrikes are aimed at terrorist organizations. (Wall Street Journal, 10.12.15, RBTH, 10.12.15).
  • The EU's aviation regulator has warned airlines of the potential danger of flying over Iran, Iraq, and the Caspian Sea after Russia fired cruise missiles at Syrian targets. (RFE/RL, 10.12.15).
  • On Wednesday, a U.S. official confirmed to Fox News that Cuban paramilitary and special forces units are on the ground in Syria, citing evidence from intelligence reports. The official said Cuban troops may have been training in Russia and may have arrived in Syria on Russian planes. (Wall Street Journal, 10.15.15).
• Other countries:
  • Russia is preparing a deal to sell its highly capable rocket engines to Beijing in return for access to Chinese electronic components used in spacecraft construction, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said on Monday.  (Moscow Times, 10.12.15).
  • Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman’s investment firm LetterOne Holdings SA agreed to buy EON SE’s oil and gas assets in the North Sea for $1.6 billion in a deal that will double its production capacity in Norway. Under pressure from the British government, the LetterOne Group, , said on Sunday that it had sold oil and natural gas assets in the British North Sea.(New York Times, Bloomberg, 10.14.15).
  • Rosatom Corp. is in final talks toward a contract to build four reactors in Egypt as the Russian nuclear power company pushes to expand across the Middle East, one of the world’s most attractive markets for atomic power, a Rosatom official said. (Bloomberg, 10.14.15).
  • Russia and Pakistan have signed an agreement to build a natural-gas pipeline from Lahore to the Arabian Sea port of Karachi. (RFE/RL, 10.16.15).
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Japan has been indefinitely postponed due to disagreements between the countries over the Southern Kuril Island territory dispute, the Asahi Shimbun reported on its website. The United States expressed concerns about peace and trade talks between Japan and Russia in recent months, pointing to western sanctions against Moscow which Tokyo has honored. (RBTH, 10.16.15, RFE/RL, 10.10.15).
  • The European Parliament has lifted the immunity of a Hungarian deputy suspected of spying on European Union institutions for Russia. A motion to suspend the immunity of Bela Kovacs of the far-right Jobbik party was approved on October 14 by a show of hands in the European Parliament. (RFE/RL, 10.15.15).

Russia's neighbors:

• Ukraine:
  • The continuous implementation of the Minsk deal on Ukraine's reconciliation will result to the lifting of the United States' sanctions on Russia, US State Secretary John Kerry said. He added that through maintaining the sanctions, Washington was 'not looking to hurt the Russian people,' but tried to 'elicit a shift of choices with respect to the Ukraine'.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Kerry discussed the situation in Syria and Ukraine in a telephone conversation on Oct. 15, the Russian Foreign Ministry reports. (Interfax, 10.15.15, PNA, 10.14.15).
  • A Ukrainian soldier has been killed and two wounded in restive eastern regions despite a cease-fire deal with separatist rebels. (RFE/RL, 10.14.15).
  • The Dutch Safety Board announced its findings Tuesday that a Russian-developed Buk missile brought down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine last year.  In its announcement, the board noted that Ukraine should have closed off its airspace to civilian aircraft and said that the Boeing 777, carrying 298 people, should not have been flying over a war zone. The findings did not assign responsibility, or what generation of the missile brought down the plane. But speaking to Dutch journalists in The Hague, in the corridor of parliament, Dutch Safety Board Chairman Tjibbe Joustra later admitted that the Buk missile was fired from a rebel-controlled area. (Washington Post, The Independent, 10.13.15).
  • The Russian state-owned manufacturer of the Buk surface-to-air missile system is suing the European Union for losses sustained by sanctions imposed against the firm following the downing of the Malaysia Airlines passenger jet over eastern Ukraine in July 2014. (RFE/RL, 10.16.15).
  • Russia has appealed to the International Civil Aviation Organization to open a new probe into last year's downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.14.15).
  • Ukraine defended its decision not to close airspace in the east of the country where a Malaysian airliner was shot down last year, saying it was unaware that anti-aircraft weapons were being used in the area. (RFE/RL, 10.14.15).
  • Ukraine has won a nonpermanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. (RFE/RL, 10.15.15).
  • The younger sister of Ukrainian pilot Nadezhda Savchenko said Russia has banned her from entering the country where she was to testify in court as her sister's defense witness. (Moscow Times, 10.14.15).
  • At the end of September, in separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe located a Russian-made rocket launch system that had never been exported to the Ukrainian military. And now the UK wants Russia to answer for its presence in the war-torn east. (Washington Post, 10.15.15).
  • Ukraine’s government says it is banning all Russian airlines from flying into Ukraine from October 25 in response to Moscow's decision in September to impose a similar ban on Ukrainian airlines. (RFE/RL, 10.12.15).
  • President Vladimir Putin called on the International Monetary Fund to help Ukraine repay a $3 billion bond due December, as Russia said it was weighing plans for a possible default on the debt.  Moscow will not compromise on Ukraine's debt, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said October 9. (RFE/RL, 10.10.15, Bloomberg, 10.13.15).
  • Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said the government will file a lawsuit against Russia if Moscow doesn't agree to restructure a $3 billion bond in the next two weeks. Current IMF policy only allows member states to miss payments to private creditors, meaning that if Ukraine defaults on the Russia loan in December, it could risk falling out of the program. (Wall Street Journal, 10.15.15).
  • Ukraine will export a record 15 million metric tons of wheat (a metric ton equals 2,204.62 pounds) in 2015, almost 4 million tons more than in 2014. (Wall Street Journal, 10.15.15).
  • The Netherlands will hold a referendum next year on a landmark European Union trade deal with Ukraine after pressure from euroskeptic campaigners. The Dutch Electoral Council on Wednesday said campaigners had amassed more than 400,000 valid signatures, above the minimum of 300,000 needed to launch a referendum.  (Wall Street Journal, 10.14.15).
• Russia’s other neighbors:
  • Amid rising insecurity in northern Afghanistan, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) could create a joint task force to protect the grouping's external borders. The CIS leaders met on October 16 in the Kazakh village of Burabay, where they signed 17 agreements, including a statement on combating international terrorism and an agreement on military cooperation through 2020. (RFE/RL, 10.16.15).
  • Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev says he and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, are very concerned with the situation in Tajikistan. Tajikistan shares a border with Afghanistan, where the Taliban has stepped up attacks in recent weeks (RFE/RL, 10.15.15).
  • Germany says it will close its air base in Uzbekistan, shutting the last Western military installation in former Soviet Central Asia. (RFE/RL, 10.15.15).
  • In a development that surprised no one, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Monday was declared the winner of a fifth term following an election campaign boycotted by the opposition. OSCE observers Belarus didn't fulfill its democratic commitments, but praised Belarusian authorities for allowing "all candidates to campaign throughout the country." Russian President Vladimir Putin promptly called to congratulate the 61-year-old Lukashenko. The United States said it was "disappointed" by the presidential election in Belarus, (AP, 10.12.15, RFE/RL, 10.13.15).
  • The European Union has taken a step toward temporarily suspending sanctions against Belarus despite concerns about the October 11 presidential election. France’s Secretary of State for European Affairs, Harlem Desir, said EU foreign ministers on October 12 had made a provisional commitment for a four-month lifting of sanctions beginning in January after an election that took place "in the most transparent and calm way possible." (RFE/RL, 10.12.15).
  • An international prosecutor on Tuesday said she has enough preliminary evidence to launch an investigation into alleged war crimes during Russia's brief war with Georgia in 2008. (Wall Street Journal, 10.13.15).
  • Khammar Mrabit, Director of the IAEA's Nuclear Security Office, paid a visit to Uzbekistan in the end of September, press service of the Ministry of Emergency Situations said on 14 October. (UzDaily.com, 10.14.15).
  • Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambaev has dismissed his defense minister, Abibilla Kudaiberdiev, after the state security service and prosecutors said they were investigating him for embezzlement.  (RFE/RL, 10.12.15).
  • Satellite dishes in Turkmenistan are being seized, ostensibly as part of a "beautification" campaign. (New York Times, 10.14.15).
  • Moldova's parliament has voted to lift the parliamentary immunity of former prime Vlad Filat so that an investigation into corruption allegations can be launched against him.  (RFE/RL, 10.15.15).
  • Russian heavy machine-building company Atommash said it had completed production of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) for the Ostrovets nuclear power plant in Belarus. (WNN, 10.15.15).

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