Russia in Review

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

No significant developments.

Iran nuclear issues:

No significant developments.

NATO-Russia relations, including transit to and from Afghanistan:

The United States says some 750 U.S. Army tanks, helicopters, and other equipment have arrived in Riga, Latvia as a part of the U.S. military's Operation Atlantic Resolve. (RFE/RL, 03.09.15).
NATO is seeking to speed up decision-making on military deployments as part of the alliance's response to threats posed by Russia and Islamic State, the alliance's Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. “It doesn't help to have a force which is ready to move within 48 hours if we need 48 days to take a decision to make it move," he said. (Wall Street Journal, 03.06.15).
“We don't see any immediate threat against any NATO ally, including the Baltic States. At the same time we see a changed security environment and a more assertive Russia. And that is why we are increasing our military presence in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia," NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Friday. (Wall Street Journal, 03.06.15).
Seven NATO members started a naval exercise in the Black Sea on March 10.The naval rapid reaction force in the drills comprises a U.S. flagship and ships from the six other participating states -- Black Sea countries Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria, plus Canada, Germany, and Italy. (RFE/RL, 03.10.15).
Russia and NATO must "take a serious look at the diplomatic options" with regard to the Ukraine crisis, or "a return to Cold War condition is very likely", Henry Kissinger said. (BBC, 03.08.15).

Missile defense:

No significant developments.

Arms control:

Russia is not planning to secede from the START Treaty right now, but may reconsider its involvement in the future, Russian Foreign Ministry Non-Proliferation and Arms Control Department Director Mikhail Ulyanov said. He also said Russia and the United States have no doubt they can reach the nuclear arsenal thresholds set by the START Treaty by 2018. As to further reductions of nuclear arsenals, that process can continue only in the case of strategic stability and equal security for all, the Russian diplomat said. (Interfax, 03.11.15)
Russia is not satisfied with the explanations given by Washington in response to the claims on the issue of fulfillment of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, Mikhail Ulyanov of the Russian Foreign Ministry said. (Interfax, 03.11.15)
The prospect of the ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) largely depends on Washington, Mikhail Ulyanov of the Russian Foreign Ministry said. “We always tell our U.S. partners that it's somewhat unnatural that the United States, on one hand, initiate a summit on nuclear security and, on the other hand, avoid ratification of an important amendment [to the CTBT]," Ulyanov said. (Interfax, 03.11.15)
Russia has announced that it is suspending its participation in the Joint Consultative Group on the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. Aleksandr Mazur, the head of the Russian delegation, said Russia's participation in the advisory group was "meaningless from a political and practical point of view and an unjustifiable waste from a financial-economic [point of view]." NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg expressed disappointment at Russia's decision to suspend its participation in the Joint Consultative Group. (RFE/RL, 03.11.15, RFE/RL, 03.11.15).
Russia has no intention of resuming its participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, but is ready for negotiations concerning a new treaty regarding the control of conventional weapons in Europe, Mikhail Ulyanov of the Russian Foreign Ministry said. (Interfax, 03.11.15)

Counter-terrorism agenda:

No significant developments.

Cyber security:

No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

Russian crude oil exports are seen rising by up to 3 million tons in 2015 and to 280 million tons per year by 2035 from 224 million tons in 2014, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said. (Reuters, 03.11.15).
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Russia was sticking to plans to deliver its first gas to China via Power of Siberia at the end of 2018 or start of 2019. (Reuters, 03.11.15).
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that the costs of the offshore parts of Turkish Stream would be "comparable" to those of the South Stream project. Gazprom plans to build the pipeline to an as-yet unbuilt hub on the Turkish-Greek border by the end of 2016, but officials in Ankara said that the timeframe for the project was unrealistic. (Reuters, 03.11.15).
Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Wednesday he hoped talks on natural gas supplies would take place with European partners and Russia on March 20. But the European Union has yet to receive confirmation that Ukraine and Russia will meet on March 20. (The Moscow Times, 03.13.15, Reuters, 03.11.15).
Gazprom said on March 6 it had received a pre-payment for gas from Ukrainian state energy company Naftogaz ensuring supplies to Ukraine through mid-March. (RFE/RL, 03.06.15).

Bilateral economic ties:

No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

The United States has asked Vietnam to stop letting Russia use a former U.S. base to refuel nuclear-capable bombers engaged in shows of strength over the Asia-Pacific region. (Reuters, 03.11.15).
The United States blacklisted more pro-Russian separatists and others, plus a Russian bank. Among those added by the U.S. Treasury to its sanctions list were the Kremlin-connected nationalist ideologue Aleksandr Dugin and former Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov. Also sanctioned was the Eurasian Youth Union. (RFE/RL, 03.11.15).
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Wednesday dismissed as "unexplainable" new U.S. sanctions on Russia over the conflict in Ukraine. (Reuters, 03.12.15).
The United States has announced $75 million in nonlethal military aid to Kyiv. Radios, unmanned aerial vehicles, counter-mortar radars, night-vision devices, first-aid kits, ambulances, and other medical supplies are included in the aid package. About 200 unarmed Humvees and 30 with armor will also be delivered. (RFE/RL, 03.11.15).
At their meeting in Washington U.S. President Barack Obama and European Council President Donald Tusk called for unity on sanctioning Russia for its actions in Ukraine, even as differences are emerging on how far to go. (Bloomberg, 03.09.15).
Germany's ambassador to the United States, Peter Wittig, said that in a February meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, she and Barack Obama agreed not to deliver "lethal defensive weapons [to Ukraine] at this time." If the West is serious about ending the fighting in Ukraine, it cannot send more arms to the front, said German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who is visiting Washington this week. (Foreign Policy, 03.12.15, RFE/RL, 03.12.15).
Consensus appears to be snowballing among Democratic and Republican lawmakers in the U.S. capital on at least one issue: arming Ukraine. At a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on March 10, the committee's Republican chairman, Senator Bob Corker said” "Any strategy will not be effective unless the United States begins to provide Ukraine with the ability to inflict serious military costs using defensive weapons on the thousands of Russian troops operating in its eastern regions.” "Providing nonlethal equipment, like night-vision goggles, is all well and good, but giving Ukrainians the ability to see Russians coming -- but not the weapons to stop them -- is not the answer," the committee's ranking Democrat, Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey, told the hearing. (RFE/RL, 03.12.15).
A U.S. weapons build-up in Ukraine would sabotage peace efforts and risk triggering renewed hostilities, opening the road for a deadly, decisive Russian victory, a multimillionaire supporter of President Vladimir Putin says. “If the Americans, using the Kiev regime, try to drag Russia into war, it will be bloody, short and will of course end in Russian victory,” Konstantin Malofeev said. (Bloomberg, 03.13.15).
The "information war" against Russia makes any efforts to improve the country's image in the West futile, a Kremlin spokesman said Thursday after the U.S. public relations firm Ketchum said its contract with the Russian government had ended. (The Moscow Times, 03.12.15).
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said: “I understand, looking at things from a Russian perspective, that certain things have happened over the last 20 years that could feed that perception. Arguably, NATO enlargement could. Pulling out of the ABM Treaty… I certainly understand how that could create such an impression in Russia. But the fact is over the last 20 years, we’ve tried to bring Russia in.” (State.gov, 03.05.15).
Russia’s top federal law enforcement agency has opened a criminal probe into the statement by retired US Army general Robert H. Scales, who suggested that the Ukrainian crisis could be settled by “killing Russians.” (Russia Today, 03.12.15).
The Soyuz TMA-14M capsule carrying Russian cosmonauts Alexander Smokutyayev and Yelena Serova, as well as U.S. astronaut Barry Wilmore has successfully landed on the Kazakh steppe. (Interfax, 03.12.15).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

The Kremlin acted to counter speculation about President Vladimir Putin’s longest absence from public view in more than two years by announcing a series of engagements for next week. Putin will meet his Kyrgyz counterpart Almazbek Atambayev in St. Petersburg on Monday and South Ossetian President Leonid Tibilov in Moscow on Wednesday. (Bloomberg, 03.13.15).
The head of pro-Kremlin pollster VTSIOM said on Friday Vladimir Putin's approval rating approval rating had hit an all-time high of 88 percent. (Reuters, 03.13.15).
Russia's central bank on Friday cut its key interest rate for the second time in two months, by one percentage point to 14. (Wall Street Journal, 03.13.15).
Russia’s budget deficit rose to 10.5% of gross domestic product in February from 4.2% in January. (Wall Street Journal, 03.12.15).
New-car sales in Russia last month decreased by more than a third from a year earlier. (Wall Street Journal, 03.11.15).
Spending on international travel by Russians fell 6 percent in 2014, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization, a sharp drop from growth of more than 20 percent in previous years. (New York Times, 03.10.15).
Rosneft remains the country’s largest taxpayer accounting for one fifth of all tax income of Russia’s consolidated budget. (Rosneft, 03.04.15).
Rosstat just released its preliminary demographic data for January 2015. Compared to the previous year, deaths were up and births were down by 2 and 4% respectively. (Forbes, 03.12.15).

Defense and Aerospace:

Russia has the right to deploy nuclear arms in the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine last year Foreign Ministry official Mikhail Ulyanov said Wednesday, adding that he knew of no plans to do so. "I don't know if there are nuclear weapons there now. (Reuters, 03.11.15).
The state armament program accounts for over 60% in the Russian Defense Ministry's budget, says Tatyana Shevtsova, Russia's Deputy Defense Minister. (Interfax, 03.09.15).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

Russian security officials have detained four men, all reportedly Chechens, on suspicion of the murder on February 27 in Moscow of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. A fifth suspect killed himself in Grozny late on March 7 when police tried to force their way into his apartment. (RFE/RL, 02.08.15).
A member of the Kremlin's advisory council on human rights said on Wednesday that as Zaur S. Dadayev, the main suspect in the shooting death of Boris Nemtsov was most likely forced to confess under duress, and that his two cousins in detention had been tortured. Dadayev has reportedly retracted his confession, suggesting it was made under duress. Ramzan A. Kadyrov, the ruler of Chechnya, said that he knew suspect Dadayev as a devout Muslim who had been shocked by the anti-Muslim cartoons of the French satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo and by those who supported their publication. Ilya Yashin, a political ally of Boris Nemtsov , dismissed the idea of any link to the cartoons, stressing that the slain opposition figure had been tolerant of different faiths his whole life (RFE/RL, 03.11.15, Wall Street Journal, 03.12.15, New York Times, 03.10.15).
Moscow is to appoint a new deputy foreign minister for counterterrorism whose main role will be to deal with international cooperation in the war on the Islamic State group. (RFE/RL, 03.13.15).
Russia is ready to fight terrorism in Libya within the framework of the UN Security Council, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. (Interfax, 03.10.15).
Russia has called for the strengthening of efforts by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to counter the threat posed by the Islamic State (IS) group to the organization's members. (RFE/RL, 03.11.15).
The rare radioactive substance used to poison Alexander Litvinenko in London could only have come from Russia, Norman Dombey, emeritus professor of theoretical physics at the University of Sussex, said. (Guardian, 03.11.15).
The high-profile case against Russian woman Svetlana Davydova accused of treason has been dropped, her lawyer said Friday. (The Moscow Times/Reuters, 03.13.15).
Russia's President Vladimir Putin has signed into law a bill slashing fines for giving and receiving bribes, in a reduction of corruption penalties. (The Moscow Times, 03.10.15).

Foreign affairs and trade:

The European Union needs its own army to face up to Russia and other threats as well as to restore the bloc's foreign policy standing around the world, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said. (Reuters, 03.09.15).
Russia has asked European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to explain his recent proposal to establish a European Union army. (RFE/RL, 03.10.15).
Imports into Russia from countries outside the former Soviet Union fell 36.9 percent to $22.9 billion in the first two months of 2015 compared with the same period last year. (The Moscow Times, 03.08.15).
EU leaders, meeting on March 19-20, will discuss economic sanctions on Russia, which will expire in July unless all 28 EU states agree to roll them over. EU diplomats say the most likely outcome is to extend them for six months. A senior EU official said Friday that majority of EU member states will probably say that discussion of whether to renew the economic sanctions should wait until July. The EU leaders will also give the High Representative for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini three months to work out how to support media freedom and European values in Russia. (EUobserver, 03.10.15, Reuters, 03.12.15, The Moscow Times, 03.13.15).
EU foreign ministers showed little appetite on Saturday for stepping up pressure on Russia over Ukraine. “At the moment we don't need either new sanctions or automatic renewals [of sanctions]," Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni told reporters. Austrian Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz agreed. And the Spanish foreign minister, Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo, told press in Moscow that “keeping or lifting sanctions depends on whether the agreements on Ukraine are being implemented or not. They [sanctions] are beneficial for no one”. (EUobserver, 03.10.15, Reuters, 03.07.15).
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Brussels of “deliberately stirring up confrontation between Russia and the European Union." (Wall Street Journal, 03.10.15).
President Vladimir Putin has signed the bill ratifying the agreement on formation of the New Development Bank by the BRICS nations. (Interfax, 03.11.15).
A Russia-nominated director will be given a place on the board of international payments service SWIFT. (The Moscow Times, 03.11.15).
The German government says Chancellor Angela Merkel won't attend a May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow, but will visit the Russian capital a day later. UK premier David Cameron and the leaders of the Baltic States will not attend the parade either. (RFE/RL, 03.11.15, Telegraph, 03.12.15).
British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said on March 10 that Russia could once again pose the greatest threat to Britain's security. He also said there might be a case for making public the international financial details of high-ranking Russians. (Wall Street Journal, 03.10.15, RFE/RL, 03.10.15).
Former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama drew a fresh rebuke from his government Thursday after he visited Crimea and said life in the peninsula appeared happy. (Wall Street Journal, 03.11.15).
North Korea has declared 2015 as Friendship Year with Russia in order to boost relations between Pyongyang and Moscow. (IBS, 03.11.15).
Hungary's 10 billion euro ($10.6 billion) plan to expand its Soviet-era Paks nuclear power plant in a deal with Russia has hit an objection in the European Commission that may oblige Budapest to revise the terms, EU sources said on Thursday. A government spokesman in Budapest, Zoltan Kovacs, denied that the EU executive had "blocked" the expansion of Paks. A spokesman for Rosatom also said the firm has nothing to add to the position of the Hungarian government. (Reuters, 03.12.15).
The European Parliament on Thursday passed a resolution that called the Boris Nemtsov killing "the most significant political murder in recent Russian history" and demanded an unbiased international inquiry into the crime. (RBTH, 03.12.15).
Citing Czech government sources, weekly magazine Respekt said on Thursday Prague had forced two Russian diplomats to leave the country in the past nine months and had denied a visa to a third who had been due to join the embassy staff. In retaliation, Russia forced two Czech diplomats to leave Moscow, it added. (Reuters, 03.12.15).

Russia's neighbors:

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said he made the decision to reclaim Crimea from Ukraine. on Feb. 23, 2014, after an all-night emergency meeting with his security chiefs on the crisis in Ukraine. Viktor F. Yanukovych had just been deposed as the president of Ukraine, and the meeting was called to discuss his rescue, Mr. Putin said. Putin also said Russia quietly conducted an opinion survey to gauge Crimeans' appetite for annexation shortly before the March 2014 referendum on the issue. He said it showed 75 percent of Crimean residents wanted to join Russia. (New York Times, 03.09.15, RFE/RL, 03.10.15).
IMF has announced a new, longer-term $17.5 billion loan package for Ukraine. The overall international financing package amounts to more than $40 billion. That includes the $17.5 billion of IMF loans, a further $7.5 billion in lending from other international organizations and $15.3 billion in debt relief that Ukrainian officials hope to gain from bondholders. Debt-restructuring talks with holders of its sovereign debt are due to begin Friday. The Finance Ministry said in a statement on March 13 that it has received the first $5 billion tranche of the new loan. (RFE/RL, 03.13.15, Reuters, 03.12.15).
The cease-fire in Ukraine “seems to be holding but it remains fragile," Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization said Wednesday. (Wall Street Journal, 03.11.15).
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe will extend its observer mission to Ukraine for one year, until March 2016, and may double its size to 1,000 observers, a spokeswoman said Thursday. Earlier Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier called on OSCE to double the number of observers it has in Ukraine to 1,000. (RFE/RL, 03.06.15, New York Times, 03.13.15).
Pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine claim to have completed an agreed withdrawal of heavy weapons in line with recent cease-fire deals. And the OSCE is hoping the heavy weapons withdrawal by the Ukrainian military from the contact line in southeastern Ukraine will be completed by mid-March, Russian envoy to OSCE Andrei Kelin said. (RFE/RL, 03.07.15, Interfax, 03.11.15)
Villagers in eastern Ukraine have said they saw a missile flying directly overhead just before a Malaysian airliner was shot down last July, providing the most detailed accounts to date that suggest that the missile was fired from territory held by pro-Russian rebels. (New York Times/Reuters, 03.13.15).
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has suggested the West should impose sanctions on Kyiv to further a deal to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine. "I don't know what instruments of pressure on Kyiv the Americans and Europeans have," he said. "But maybe [they should] impose their favorite mechanism of sanctions on Kyiv in this case."(RFE/RL, 03.10.15).
Russia's reunification with Crimea did not violate the Budapest memorandum and has got nothing to do with the loss of territorial integrity by Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Alexander Lukashevich said on Thursday. (TASS, 03.12.15).
Russia has transferred more weapons to separatists in recent days despite an ongoing cease-fire, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on March 10. Nuland also said she was comfortable with characterizing Russian actions as an "invasion.” (RFE/RL, 01.10.15).
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday that Russia was still arming and training rebel forces in eastern Ukraine and he called for the warring parties to help foreign monitors reinforce a cease-fire. (Reuters, 03.11.15).
U.S. General Philip Breedlove, the supreme allied commander of NATO troops, said that the alliance has "seen some success" with a cease-fire deal agreed in Minsk last month. But Breedlove said it was "difficult to know" where the heavy weapons moved from the front line have been taken. (RFE/RL, 03.11.15).
A former regional governor has been found dead in Ukraine, the latest in a series of deaths involving allies of deposed President Viktor Yanukovych. Five other officials also died in mysterious circumstances this year. All of them supposedly took their own lives in the past six weeks. (BBC, 03.12.15).
"The greatest potential consensus lies in Ukraine affirming a neutral position between the EU and Russia," said a survey being presented at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington. The results of the poll show that 63% of Ukrainians would find neutrality tolerable, while 31% find it unacceptable. (USA Today, 03.08.15).
Over ninety percent of all residents of the Republic of Crimea are positive about the reunion with Russia that took place in March 2014, the All-Russia Public Opinion Research Center has reported. (Interfax, 03.10.15).
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev says he will run for reelection in a snap poll set for April 26. (RFE/RL, 03.11.15).
The Kremlin says Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to sign an "alliance and integration" treaty with the head of Georgia's Moscow-backed breakaway South Ossetia region on March 18. But Russia’s newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports that the signing of the treaty has been postponed. (RBTH, 03.12.15, RFE/RL, 03.13.15).
Leaders in the Armenian diaspora, preparing to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide, have collaborated with Hollywood celebrities and human rights advocates to create a prize to be awarded annually to those who put themselves at risk to ensure that others survive. (New York Times, 03.10.15).
Tajik police say they have detained a 25-year-old woman who was allegedly planning to take a bus from Turkey to Syria to join Islamic State militants. (RFE/RL, 03.11.15).

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