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Russia in Review

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Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for February 6-12, 2015

 


I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security agenda:

  • U.S. Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz said: “We have completed the removal or disposal of a total of 190 kilograms of vulnerable nuclear material, through bilateral agreements, and trilateral agreements with Russia and countries with material of Russian origin. Despite a difficult relationship at the moment, we are continuing to work with Russia to repatriate weapons-usable material to the United States or Russia.”(Congressional Documents and Publications, 02.12.15).
  • U.S. Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz said: “We must continue to reduce the global nuclear terrorism threat through measures to identify, control, and eliminate nuclear weapons worldwide.”(Congressional Documents and Publications, 02.12.15).

Iran nuclear issues:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has said “substantial progress” has been made in negotiations between Iran and six world powers on Tehran's nuclear program. The crucial point is that nobody should try to derive unilateral benefit from the situation or to bargain out more than what is needed for a balanced and just resolution of this complicated issue,” he said. (RFE/RL, 02.09.15).
  • The foreign ministers of Russia and Iran have discussed international efforts to resolve a persistent standoff over Tehran's nuclear program.  (RFE/RL, 02.07.15).

NATO-Russia relations, including transit to and from Afghanistan:

  • No significant developments.

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

  • No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism agenda:

  • Russian security services for years asked the FBI for information the Americans may have had on Doku Umarov but the FBI was little help – mostly because even after high-profile terror attacks and an official terrorist designation by the U.S., the Bureau hadn’t opened its own investigation into the man, according to FBI documents. (ABC News, 02.13.15).

Cyber security:

  • No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Russia will produce 560,000 fewer barrels of oil per day by 2020 as Western sanctions and low oil price slice into output, according to a report released Tuesday by the International Energy Agency. (The Moscow Times, 02.10.15).
  • The European Union will relaunch trilateral talks with Kiev and Moscow on supplies of Russian gas to Ukraine following Thursday's peace accord with Russia over Ukraine, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said.  (Reuters, 02.13.15).

Bilateral economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has used a planned visit to Egypt to make a scathing criticism of the U.S.-led international coalition against the Islamic State (IS) group, accusing the United States and its Western allies of being responsible for the Syrian crisis as well as the military conflict in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 02.09.15).
  • U.S. President Barack Obama had said ahead of the peace talks in Minsk that he would wait for the outcome of peace talks before deciding whether to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine. ‘‘If, in fact, diplomacy fails, what I’ve asked my team to do is to look at all options,’’ Mr. Obama said. Russia has an extraordinarily powerful military," Obama said on Monday. "Expecting that, if Russia is determined, that Ukraine can fully rebuff a Russian army has always been unlikely." (New York Times, Washington Post, 02.11.15).
  • “The Americans are trying to involve the Russian Federation in an interstate military conflict, cause regime change [in Russia] and ultimately dismember our country via events in Ukraine,” Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said. Mr. Patrushev also suggested that the West wasn't dedicated enough to overhaul Ukraine's battered economy. “I suspect that the West will bring the Ukrainian economy to a dead-end," he said. (Wall Street Journal, 02.11.15).
  • U.S. Vice President Joe Biden says Russian President Vladimir Putin faces a choice to either "get out" of Ukraine or face "continued international isolation" and domestic economic problems.  (RFE/RL, 02.09.15).
  • U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry held out the possibility of easing sanctions if the deal, which follows an earlier agreement also negotiated in Minsk, Belarus, was fully carried out. “As we have long said, the United States is prepared to consider rolling back sanctions on Russia when the Minsk agreements of September 2014, and now this agreement, are fully implemented,” he said. (Reuters, 02.13.15).
  • Senior U.S. administration official: “What we are looking for in terms of fulfilling the commitment that we have made that sanctions can roll back on Russia would be the implementation of this agreement and the full implementation of the September agreement, the two being cohesive. That’s separate and apart from the sanctions on – that we have imposed with respect to Crimea.” (U.S. Department of State, 02.12.15).
  • In recent months, Boris and Arkady Rotenberg -- Russian businessmen and friends of Vladimir Putin -- have sold off assets to their sons. While U.S. companies may now be free to do business with the sold-off firms, some experts say that many U.S. companies are wary -- and rightfully so. (Wall Street Journal, 02.13.18).
  • NASA has said in a statement it would like to buy another six places on four Russian-made Soyuz spacecraft to take American, European, Canadian and Japanese astronauts to the International Space Station in 2018 and bring them back to Earth. " (Interfax, 02.07.15).
  • More than 80 percent of Russians view the United States negatively, the exact inverse of how the public felt in 1992, respected independent pollster the Levada Center said in a statement. More than 70 percent currently have a negative opinion of the European Union, according to the poll, which was conducted between Jan. 23 and 26. (The Moscow Times, 02.09.15).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

  • The ruble was stronger on Friday and Russian shares rose, helped by a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine and a rise in oil prices to $60 per barrel. At 09:45 G.M.T. the ruble was 0.8 percent stronger against the dollar at 64.74 and 0.6 percent stronger at 74.03 versus the euro. (The Moscow Times, 02.13.15).
  • Food price rises will outpace average inflation in Russia and rise up to 23.8 percent in the first six months of this year, according to a forecast from the Economic Development Ministry. (The Moscow Times, 02.13.15).
  • The total assets of Russia's banks contracted by 24 billion rubles ($380 million) in January as a crumbling ruble, high interest rates and an economic slowdown battered the country's banking industry, according to Central Bank data. (The Moscow Times, 02.13.15).
  • Some 873,000 Russians are currently unemployed and their numbers may grow by another 650,000 this year. (Interfax, 02.09.15).
  • Asked to rate the perceived power of certain political entities on a five-point scale, respondents gave Vladimir Putin  an average score of 4.5, independent pollster the Levada Center said on its website. Trailing about half a point behind were the FSB, a successor agency of the Soviet KGB, and the military.  The next most powerful, according to poll respondents, were the presidential administration and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's Cabinet, followed by oligarchs and bankers, and the media. (Moscow Times, 02.12.15
  • Prosecutors have sent the Russian branch of international anti-corruption watchdog Transparency International a warning that is likely a precursor to registering it as a foreign agent, the NGO said in an online statement Friday . (The Moscow Times, 02.13.15).

Defense:

  • Russia has launched what it calls the largest-ever exercises of its strategic-missile forces in 12 regions across the country. Defense Ministry spokesman Colonel Igor Yegorov said "both road-mobile and silo-based missile systems" are taking part in the drills that began on February 12. (RFE/RL, 02.12.15).
  • Two satellites of the old US-KS/Oko system that until recently maintained some coverage of ballistic missile launches, stopped functioning some time in the fall of 2014, leaving Russia without space-based tier of the early-warning system. The Kommersant newspaper, which first reported the news, appears to have an independent confirmation of the satellites' demise. (Russian Strategic Forces blog, 02.11.15).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • As the gulf between Russia and the West continues to deepen over the Ukraine crisis, the list of Russians being charged with treason has suddenly and visibly begun to expand — to include a mother of seven from Smolensk, an employee of the Russian Orthodox Church, a former nuclear scientist and a serviceman from the Black Sea Fleet. A Moscow court on Monday confirmed the latest arrest, of Navy serviceman Sergei Minakov, who is accused of working for foreign intelligence while serving on a Black Sea tanker. (Moscow Times, 02.10.15).
  • Russians working for state agencies or state-owned enterprises who have relatives living abroad may be denied access to sensitive government information and secrets, the Constitutional Court has ruled. (Moscow Times, 02.12.15).
  • In 2014, the total number of people killed and wounded in the North Caucasus in clashes between the Islamic insurgency and police and security forces declined for the fourth consecutive year. According to data compiled by the website Caucasus Knot, the death and casualty toll fell last year by 46.9 percent, to 525, down from 986 in 2013. (RFE/RL, 02.11.15).
  • A total of nine individuals from Russia's North Caucasus Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria have died fighting in Syria since the armed insurgency began in that country in 2011, a representative from the Federal Security Service (FSB) in Kabardino-Balkaria said this week. The representative said that around 80 Kabardino-Balkaria residents were fighting in Syria, and that criminal cases had been opened against 28 of them. (RFE/RL, 02.12.15).
  • Six Russian nationals from the Chechen Republic were arrested in Southern France and charged with terrorist activity, Le Figaro reports. An investigation revealed that the Chechens were involved with terrorist groups in Syria. In particular, they helped to send new recruits to join the jihadists in Syria, as well as provided them with financial and logistical support. (Sputnik, 02.13.15).
  • Authorities in the North Caucasus republic of Kabardino-Balkaria have identified a militant killed in a shootout with police as a recruiter for the Islamic State (IS). (Reuters, 02.12.15).
  • Meeting with senior federal Interior Ministry officials, Chechen Republic head Ramzan Kadyrov has indirectly confirmed a report posted on the insurgency website Kavkazcenter that unknown perpetrators painted a black jihadi banner on a wall in his home village of Tsentoroi (Khosi-Yurt) during the night of February 8-9.  (RFE/RL, 02.11.15).
  • Russia has appealed a Hague court decision in favor of former shareholders of the defunct oil firm Yukos that orders Moscow to pay $50 billion in arbitration (RFE/RL, 02.06.15).
  • A representative of the Federal Security Service on Tuesday said corruption dealt a massive blow to the state defense budget in 2014, accounting for losses of more than 5 billion rubles ($75 million). (Moscow Times, 02.10.15).

Foreign affairs and trade:

  • President Vladimir Putin says Russia is facing Cold War-style containment efforts at the hands of the West and will oppose world domination by a single country. However, Putin said Russia does not plan to wage "war against anyone.” (RFE/RL, 02.07.15).
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Egyptian counterpart said on Tuesday that the two countries plan to jointly build Egypt's first nuclear power plant, as well as boost trade relations and investments. (RFE/RL, 02.10.15).
  • The EU has a February 16 deadline on whether to extend visa bans and asset freezes on 19 more Russians and Ukraine separatists and 9 entities. The names were kept confidential for now, but diplomatic sources said they included Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov. A shadow debate has already opened whether a cease-fire and a reduction in bloodshed would be enough by themselves to trigger a relaxation of most of the sanctions on Russia. (Wall Street Journal, 02.12.18, Reuters, 02.09.15).
  • The president of Cyprus has reportedly offered the Russian navy and air force access to Cypriot military bases. "There is an old [defense] agreement [between Cyprus and Russia] which is to be renewed as it is," Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades was cited as saying by the Xinhua news agency last week. "At the same time, some additional facilities will be provided just like we do with other countries — France and Germany for example." (The Moscow Times, 02.09.15).

Russia's neighbors:

  • The leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France agreed a deal to end fighting in eastern Ukraine at talks in Minsk, Belarus on Thursday. The agreement provides for immediate and comprehensive ceasefire on Feb. 15, 2015.; withdrawal of all heavy weapons to create a security zone at least 50 kilometers wide; effective monitoring and verification of the ceasefire regime by OSCE; dialogue on ways of conducting local elections in “certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions;” amnesty; release and exchange of all hostages; distribution of humanitarian assistance; reinstatement of full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine; withdrawal of all foreign armed formations and arms; and constitutional reform in Ukraine providing for decentralization. (Reuters, 02.12.15).
  • Russia expects that all sides to the agreement reached in Minsk on solving Ukraine's conflict will observe its terms, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday. "This time the agreement was supported at the highest level and we hope that all parties will honor their commitments," Peskov told journalists. (The Moscow Times, 02.13.15).
  • European Union leaders have expressed caution about the peace deal hammered out for eastern Ukraine. French President Francois Hollande said it was "very important" to keep up the pressure for there to be peace in Ukraine. "We now have a glimmer of hope," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said. But she also noted that "there are still major hurdles that lie ahead." (Washington Post, 02.13.15, RFE/RL, 02.12.15).
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Thursday that Russia's Vladimir Putin had put pressure on the pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine to agree to a cease-fire from Sunday, which she said offered a "glimmer of hope" for an end to the bloodshed. (Reuters, 02.12.15).
  • Ukrainian soldiers and pro-Moscow rebel forces clashed Friday ahead of a cease-fire hammered out by European leaders. Eleven Ukrainian soldiers died and 40 more were wounded in the past 24 hours in the eastern battle zone, a Ukrainian military spokesman said Friday. Battles near the Ukrainian-held cities of Debaltseve and Mariupol grew fierce and fighting also appeared ongoing in the rebel stronghold of Donetsk. Also a tank battle between Ukrainian government forces and the militia is under way in the village of Shyrokyne, the Volnovakha district of the Donetsk region (Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Interfax, 02.13.15).
  • Ukraine is set to receive about $40 billion in funding over the next four years, nearly half of which will come from the International Monetary Fund, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said in Brussels as talks on the Ukraine conflict resumed in Minsk. Lagarde told reporters that the IMF team working in Kiev had reached an agreement with the Ukraine government on a new economic program with about $17.5 billion coming from the IMF and additional resources from the international community. (Reuters, 02.12.15).
  • The World Bank announced on February 12 that it will provide Ukraine with up to $2 billion in support in 2015, with assistance focused on aiding the poor, supporting reforms and fighting corruption. (RFE/RL, 02.12.15).
  • International donors are planning a conference in Kiev in April to raise at least $15 billion to help save Ukraine from bankruptcy and rebuild the country, a senior EU official said on Monday. (Reuters, 02.09.15).
  • Russia will not grant extradition requests for Ukraine's former president Viktor Yanukovych or other members of the former Kiev government because the charges against them are politically motivated, Russia's Prosecutor General Yury Chaika said. (The Moscow Times, 02.10.15).
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman says no promises were made during peace talks in Minsk about the fate of detained Ukrainian Air Force pilot Nadia Savchenko. (RFE/RL, 02.13.15).
  • Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko replaced Ukraine's top prosecutor on Tuesday, amid rising pressure from voters and the country's creditors to toughen anticorruption measures. (Wall Street Journal, 02.10.15).
  • U.S. Army Europe commander Ben Hodges said on Wednesday that Russian troops were intervening directly in fighting in the Debaltseve area of Ukraine, and if the offensive succeeded, they may turn their attention to the port city of Mariupol (The Moscow Times, 02.01.15).
  • Ukrainian authorities have detained journalist Ruslan Kotsaba on suspicion of treason after he released a video calling for his countrymen to avoid military draft amid the conflict between pro-Russian rebels and Kiev government forces in the east of the country. (The Moscow Times, 02.09.15).
  • Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said in Munich that Russia had provided military equipment and hardware to pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine and that Russian troops were in the rebel-held regions. Poroshenko held up several red passports and military IDs that he claimed were taken from Russian soldiers and officers fighting in Ukraine and said they were proof of Moscow's presence in his country. (RFE/RL, 02.09.15).
  • Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev says U.S. and EU sanctions against Russia are "barbaric" and has called for the "de-dollarization" of the Central Asian country's economy. (RFE/RL, 02.11.15).

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