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RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
The Regional Elections
August 15, 1996, No. 25
I. Introduction to Regional Elections in Russia
With the presidential elections completed, Russia is now preparing for a series of regional gubernatorial and legislative elections. This brief is intended to give an overview of the Russian elections that will occur over the next four months.
Forty-two of 89 Russian Federation regions already have popularly elected executive heads. These include the presidents of all 21 national republics, the governors of 2 krais and 17 oblasts, and the mayors of Moscow and St. Petersburg. The other regions 4 krais, 33 oblasts, and 10 autonomous okrugs still have administration heads who were appointed by President Yeltsin. Under current law these areas must hold elections by the end of the year. Additionally, several republics Marii-El, Yakutia, and Khakassia, for example will be reelecting new presidents whose terms of office expire in December 1996 and January 1997. Elections to new regional legislative assemblies will occur in 18 oblasts and krais by the end of the year.
The regional elections are important for a number of reasons. First, control of the Federation Council (upper house) is at stake. The Federation Council consists of the executive and legislative heads of the regions. Because President Yeltsin appointed these leaders, the Federation Council has traditionally been sympathetic to Yeltsin''s causes. However, should opposition forces win in the regions this fall, this previously rubber-stamp body could become another hurdle for Yeltsin to overcome. Second, as a result of their loss in the presidential election, the opposition forces led by Gennady Zyuganov''s Communist Party of the Russian Federation have been in disarray. By organizing effectively this fall and by using the vast Communist party regional apparatus, the opposition forces could make a strong showing and revitalize their political fortunes. Third, the Moscow/region relationship has always been tense. Moscow is perceived as privileged and enjoying the benefits of reform while the regions are left to suffer. The regional elections will be a referendum on Moscow policies and may exacerbate the center-periphery rift in Russia today. Finally, these elections may prove to be a wake up call for the Kremlin leaders who have squandered their presidential election honeymoon.
II. Dates and Locations for Regional Elections in Russia
Executive Elections Legislative Elections
AUGUST
25 Kaluga Oblast (Legis. Assembly)
SEPTEMBER
1 Saratov Oblast
22 Amur Oblast
29 Leningrad Oblast Tula Oblast (Regional Duma)
Rostov Oblast
OCTOBER
6 Volgoda Oblast Repub. of Marii El (State Assm.)
Kaliningrad Oblast Sakhalin Oblast (Regional Duma)
Kirov Oblast
13 Yamal-Nenets Okrug
18 Kursk Oblast
20 Pskov Oblast
Sakhalin Oblast
Jewish Aut. Oblast
27 Krasnodar Krai Koryak Okrug (Okrug Duma)
Chita Oblast
Aga Buryat Okrug
Koryak Okrug
Khanty-Mansi Okrug
In October, date not specified:
Amur Oblast (Regional Assembly)
Chita Oblast (Regional Duma)
Aga Buryat Okrug (Okrug Duma)
NOVEMBER
17 Altai Krai Leningrad Oblast (Legislative Assm)
Murmansk Oblast
Executive Elections Legislative Elections
Nov. 17 (con''t) Kamchatka Oblast
Ust-Orda Buryat Okrug
24 Kurgan Oblast
In November, date not specified:
Ust-Orda Okrug (Okrug Duma)
DECEMBER
1 Republic of Khakassia Ivanovo Oblast (Legis. Assm.)
Ivanovo Oblast Nenets Okrug (Okrug Deputy Assm.)
Samara Oblast
Nenets Okrug
6 Kaliningrad Oblast (Regional Duma)
8 Khabarovsk Krai Bryansk Oblast (Regional Duma)
Bryansk Oblast
Voronezh Oblast
Kostroma Oblast
15 Arkhangelsk Oblast Vladimir Oblast (Regional Duma)
Vladimir Oblast Evenk Okrug (Legis. Suglan)
Kaluga Oblast
Ryazan Oblast
Perm Oblast
Chelyabinsk Oblast
Evenk Okrug
22 Volgograd Oblast Chukchi Okrug (Okrug Duma)
Tyumen Oblast
Chukchi Okrug
In December, date not specified:
Repub. Marii El Rep. of Khahassia(Supreme Council)
Republic of Yakutia Kostroma Oblast (Regional Duma)
Stavropol Krai Magadan Oblast (Regional Duma)
Astrakhan Oblast Nizhny Novgorod Oblast (L. Assm.)
Tula Oblast Orenburg Oblast (Legis. Assm.)
Ulyanovsk Oblast Pensa Oblast (Regional Duma)
Kemerovo Oblast Perm Oblast (Legis. Assem.)
Magadan Oblast Pskov Oblast (Region Depty Assm)
Komi-Permyak Okrug Khanty-Mansi Okrug (Okrug Duma)
Taimyr (Dolgan-Nenets) Okrug
JANUARY, 1997
12 Republic of Adygeya
Kabardin-Balkar Republic
III. What is the Difference between an Autonomous Republic, a Krai, an Autonomous Oblast, an Oblast, and an Autonomous Okrug?
A. Autonomous Republics. These are designated as the territories of the largest national minorities within the Russian federation. These territories are largely autonomous in their internal affairs, are headed by "presidents," and rely on Russia for their foreign policy and defense. Examples include Tatarstan, Dagestan, and Komi.
B. Krais. These are large territories of geographical or military significance, located in strategically important borderlands. (Krai means edge.) Six krais exist in the Russian Federation: Stavropol and Krasnodar in the North Caucasus, Primorsky and Khabarovsk on the Pacific Coast and Russia''s border with China, Krasnoyarsk in Siberia bordering the autonomous republic of Tuva (Tuva was an independent satellite of the USSR until 1944), and Altai on the border with Mongolia. In functional terms there is presently no difference between the administration of a krai or oblast. The name krai is maintained to mark the territories'' former historical significance.
C. Autonomous Oblast. These are the designated territory of national minorities living in a coterminous geographical area within a krai. Of the six Russian krais, only Primorsky krai does not contain an autonomous oblast.
D. Oblasts. These are the basic non-national administrative units of the Russian Federation.
E. Autonomous Okrugs. These are the designated territory of national minorities living in a coterminous geographical area within oblasts. They are the smallest of the national territorial units.
IV. Who Will Contest the Regional Elections?
- The Government (NDR): Because President Yeltsin does not have a party of his own, the government plans to coordinate the regional election efforts in the center by creating a campaign headquarters and in the regions by relying on the pro-government Our Home is Russia''s (NDR''s) regional network. The campaign headquarters will include representatives of the presidential administration, the government, the Federation Council, the Security Council, and political parties. Yeltsin will be the official leader of the effort, but Chief of Staff Anatoly Chubais will likely see oversee the day-to-day activities. Chubais announced General Lebed will assist in the efforts, although Lebed''s new Truth and Order group may complicate this.
Our Home Is Russia announced it will join other political organizations that supported Yeltsin''s reelection campaign to present a joint list of candidates for the 47 gubernatorial elections.
A campaign strategy document leaked to the press and published in Nezavisimaya Gazeta on July 31 outlined the government''s approach to the regional elections. The document made nine recommendations:
I. Use the president''s representatives in the region during the campaign.
II. Retain the foundation of the President Hotel (the presidential campaign staff) as a base for NDR activities.
III. Promote the importance of the regional elections; make them analogous to the presidential elections. Hold regional elections on the same day where possible.
IV. Decide which legislative assemblies are to be won back from the Communists.
V. Carefully select which governors to support and minimize influence of Kremlin clans in this selection.
VI. Avoid conflict with the incumbent governors during the campaign.
VII. Limit active intervention to a small group of regions where there is particular danger of power passing to the Left or mafia forces.
VIII. Yeltsin should not actively participate in the campaign on a personal level.
IX. Find ways to strengthen presidential control over regional authorities.
- The People''s Patriotic Union (Opposition CP-RF, Agrarian): The opposition views the regional elections as an opportunity reorganize their efforts after their presidential loss. On August 7 communist and nationalist forces launched a permanent coalition called the Peoples Patriotic Union to contest upcoming elections. The group is a continuation of the movement of opposition forces organized to elect Gennady Zyuganov president. Although the largest faction within the group is Zyuganov''s Communist Party, some 50 other leftist and nationalist movements have joined including the Agrarian Party, Alexander Rutskoi''s Derzhava movement, and Nikolai Ryzhkov''s "Power to the People" parliamentary bloc. Patriotism is expected to take a higher priority than socialism in the movement. Extreme leftist forces such as Viktor Anpilov''s Stalinist Worker''s Russia party are not expected to join, to the relief of many organizers. Ryzhkov, a key organizer of the group, said, "This is the movement of the future...in the future there will be only two main political forces contending for power in Russia: the party of power and the patriotic forces." The bloc is expected to contest the regional elections and rely heavily on the extensive Communist regional network. (Hindustan Times 8/7)
Alexei Podberezkin, a key advisor to Zyuganov in the presidential campaign, claimed the movement would field candidates in all the regions and would support intelligent, professional, capable people regardless of their party affiliation. He believes the bloc has a particularly good chance in Kursk, where former Vice President Alexander Rutskoi is running. (Nezavisimaya gazeta 8/8)
Agrarian Party leader Mikhail Lapshin says his party will field candidates in 15 regions according to Radio Mayak.
Truth and Order (Lebed, KRO, DPR): At the end of July, National Security Advisor Alexander Lebed held a meeting with leaders of the Congress of Russian Communities (KRO), the Democratic Party of Russia, and the Honor and Motherland movement. The group decided to create a single centrist coalition with the goal of electing Lebed president in 2000. Sergei Glazyev suggested all three organizations be consolidated into one movement named "Truth and Order," but other participants insisted that the founding parties maintain their sovereignty. The group hopes to attract additional patriotic movements. The group plans to test their strength in the regions by contesting regional elections. The founding members believe their candidates stand a realistic chance of winning in Kuban, Stavropol Krai, Kaliningrad, Novosibirsk, and Ivanovo Oblasts, thanks to the organization and popularity of KRO in these areas. Should Truth and Order prove successful, they will have a bloc represented in the Federation Council. Truth and Order''s founding congress will be held in September. (Moskovsky Novosti No. 30 7/28-8/4, OMRI 7/25)
V. Recent Events Regarding the Regional Elections in Russia - Chernomyrdin Suggests Postponing Regional Elections: Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin proposed delaying the regional elections for a year. Chernomyrdin complained during his meeting with the Duma faction "People''s Power" that "a serious shortfall of taxes has occurred as a result of the elections" and that the economy has "barely survived" the successive votes. (Sevodnya 8/9)
- Regional Elections To Watch:
SARATOV OBLAST (Sept. 1): Incumbent Dmitri Ayatskov will be challenged by Anatoly Gordeev, a local CP-RF activist and an aide to Zyuganov.
LENINGRAD OBLAST (Sept. 29): Incumbent Alexei Belyakov is expected to win. He has close ties with new St. Petersburg Governor (Mayor) Vladimir Yakovlev and campaigned for Yeltsin in the presidential campaign. He is running on a platform to change the course of economic reform to assist Russian commodity producers and to unite St. Petersburg with Leningrad Oblast. Four other candidates are collecting the required 13,000 signatures.
ROSTOV OBLAST (Sept. 29): Incumbent Vladimir Chub, a Yeltsin supporter, faces a serious rival in Leonid Ivanchenko, the CP-RF Duma member who chairs the Federal Affairs and Regional Policy Committee.
KURSK OBLAST (Oct. 18): Former Russian Vice President, Afghan war hero, Derzhava movement leader, and Zyuganov-backer Alexander Rutskoi will try his electoral luck once again in his home oblast.
KRASNODAR KRAI (Oct. 27): Former Presidential Chief of Staff Nikolai Yegorov, who was recently appointed governor, faces Communist Nikolai Kondratenko, a campaign aide to Zyuganov and the former Soviet Executive Committee Chair of the region. LDPR candidate Alexei Rozhin was murdered on August 1.
BRYANSK OBLAST (Dec. 8): Yuri Lodkin, who was fired by Yeltsin as head of the Bryansk Administration, is back running as a Communist. Lodkin currently serves in the Duma.
KEMEROVO OBLAST (December): Unless offered a position in the Chernomyrdin government, former presidential candidate and local hero Aman Tuleev, who heads the regional Duma, will run against and likely defeat incumbent Mikhail Kislyuk.