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RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
February 9, 1996
To help track significant developments affecting Russian elections, the Strengthening
Democratic Institutions Project offers a simplified summary of recent political events, including
"betting charts." Individual''s estimates of the likelihood of Russian elections and their results
are presented as numerical estimated probabilities not because anyone entertains illusions about
precision, but to make the estimators state their bets as clearly as possible.
I. Recent Significant Political Events:
- NEW DUMA COMMITTEE CHAIRS ASSIGNED: The Communist Party of
the Russian Federation (CP-RF) gained nine committee chairs including:
Legislation (Anatoly Lukyanov), Economic Policy (Yuri Maslyukov), Security
(Victor Ilyukhin) and Veterans- Affairs (1991 coup plotter, Valentin Varennikov).
The pro-government Our Home is Russia (NDR) will chair four committees
including: Privatization (Pavel Bunich) and Defense (Lt. General Lev Rokhlin).
Zhirinovsky-s Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) will chair four committees
including: Labor and Social Policy (Sergei Kalashnikov), Geopolitics (Alexei
Mitrofanov), and Information Policy (Oleg Finko). In addition to two new
chairs, Yabloko will maintain its two prestigious committees chairs: Budget
(Mikhail Zadornov) and Foreign Affairs (Vladimir Lukin). Nikolai Ryzhkov-s
leftist People''s Power will hold two committee chairs: CIS Affairs (Georgy
Tikhonov) and Culture (Stanislav Govorukhin). At the time of the report, the
Agrarian faction had two committee chairs, which it had refused to accept. (omri
1/22)
- FIRST DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER FOR THE ECONOMY ANATOLY
CHUBAIS REMOVED: Completing a string of firings of reform-oriented
cabinet officials, BORIS YELTSIN removed Anatoly Chubais, the privatization
architect and one of the last remaining economic reformists in the government on
January 16. Chubais is blamed for much of Russia''s current economic hardship
and his removal is seen as a concession to the opposition forces'' victory in
December parliamentary elections. Yeltsin claimed had he dumped Chubais
earlier, Our Home is Russia would have gained 20% of the vote as opposed to
10%. Kuranty editor ANATOLY PANKOV countered that although Chubais
shoulders much of the blame, he toiled diligently for Yeltsin; and furthermore,
the government at the moment is not proposing publicly to change its economic
course. "How could Chubais have affected the voting results of a movement he
has never been a member of?" Communist Duma Speaker GENNADY
SELEZNEV welcomed the dismissal of "the most odious" figure in the
government. CHUBAIS defended his record in the Financial Times, warning that
to abandon privatization would lead to a bloodbath. He also cautioned of the two
faces of Communist leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV - one for domestic and one
for foreign consumption. Chubais'' successor is VLADIMIR KADANNIKOV,
the head of the faltering AvtoVAZ automobile company. Kadannikov''s reform
credentials are questionable. Government officials have stated reforms will
continue, but experts are taking a wait-and-see attitude. (Financial Times (FT)
1/19, Kuranty 1/23, Sevodnya 1/25, FT 1/26, Russian Review 2/2, omri 2/6, FT
2/5)
- COMMUNISTS IN THE DUMA: In the month after the Duma elections, the
Communist Party of the Russia Federation (CP-RF) has turned conciliatory in
preparation for the June presidential election. They elected a suave new Speaker
in GENNADY SELEZNEV and had party leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV tour
the West to assure foreigners that a Communist victory in June will not threaten
Western interests. (See Zyuganov section below.) The party has struck a
conciliatory tone on Chechnya, with Seleznev stating, "It is time for the Duma,
the government, and the presidential team to work together to work out certain
measures to put an end to war." (NYT 1/19, omri 2/5)
In his first interview as Speaker, SELEZNEV explained that the party would not
have undue influence over him, even though he had not taken the traditional step
of resigning from his party upon becoming Speaker. He further claimed the
Communists believed in a multi-party system, and that he personally liked the
Swedish method of socialism. Seleznev met with President YELTSIN in early
February to discuss ways the Duma and administration could more efficiently pass
laws. (Nezavisimaya gazeta 1/19)
- YABLOKO IN THE DUMA: YAVLINSKY-s Yabloko bloc began collecting
signatures in the Duma for a no-confidence vote in the Chernomyrdin
government. The effort, said Yabloko press secretary YEVGENIA
DILLENDORF, was designed to initiate discussions on the government-s
criminal Chechnya policy. Yabloko collected 48 of the 90 required signatures.
Yabloko has been criticized for not working closely with Our Home is Russia
(NDR) in the new Duma. Responding, senior faction member VICTOR
SHEINIS claimed "Yabloko goes alone because I do not see a political faction
that could become our ally. No one is as close as Russia''s Choice was."
(Interfax 1/23, Nezavisimaya gazeta 1/20)
- YEGOR GAIDAR ON YABLOKO AND COMMUNIST PROGRAMS:
Russia''s Democratic Choice leader Yegor Gaidar described both Yabloko and
Communist programs as containing similar inflationary provisions and imperial
tones when discussing foreign policy priorities. He urged Yabloko to change
several planks in its platform. Yabloko leader GRIGORY YAVLINSKY
responded he is always willing to talk and explain his program. Yavlinsky said
he could now work with Gaidar since Gaidar renounced his ties with YELTSIN.
However, most believe Gaidar will push for a CHERNOMYRDIN or Nizhni
Novgorod governor BORIS NEMTSOV candidacy. (Interfax 1/23, omri 2/5)
- NEW HEAD OF UPPER HOUSE CHOSEN: YEGOR STROYEV will head
the Federation Council. Stroyev, 58, is a former Politburo member and
governor of Orel Oblast. He was in charge of agriculture in the last year of the
Soviet Union. He claims to favor Our Home is Russia views against CP-RF
programs. (Boston Globe 1/24)
II. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential
Elections in June
A. Betting Charts
Individual Likelihood Change From Last Week
Graham Allison 50%
Sergei Grigoriev 60% +10%
John Lloyd
Matthew Lantz 60% + 5%
B. Events Affecting Likelihood of Elections in June
- CENTRAL ELECTION COMMITTEE (CEC) DEFINES PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION GUIDELINES: Presidential candidates are allowed to spend a
maximum of 14.5 billion rubles ($3.1 million) during their campaigns. Individual
contributions are limited to 2.88 million rubles ($610) and legal entities can
contribute a maximum of 288 million rubles ($61,000). All deposits and
transactions must be made through special accounts in the state-run Sberbank.
Finance laws were not strictly enforced in the December Duma elections. One
million signatures are due to the CEC by April 16, and no more than 70,000 can
come from any one region. (omri 2/5, Rossiiskaya gazeta 2/1)
- US PRONOUNCEMENTS ON RUSSIAN POLICY: Speaking at Harvard,
Secretary of State WARREN CHRISTOPHER warned Russia to play by the
rules. He claimed the US seeks Russia''s deeper integration into Western
institutions, but that integration depends on Russia''s willingness to abide by
international norms and to stay on the path of reform. Assistant Secretary of
State STROBE TALBOTT writing in the New York Times claimed America''s
policy remains clear and consistent: to support democracy. However, "It is not
our responsibility to choose Russia''s leaders. It never was. The Russian people
now have the power to do that themselves." Academic MICHAEL
MANDELBAUM writing in Time disagreed with current American policy
claiming US policy should now only ensure Russian good behavior in foreign
policy and refrain from offering economic advice that is often resented by
Russians. (NYT 1/19, Boston Globe 1/19, NYT 2/5, The Economist 2/3, Time 2/5)
III. If June Presidential Elections, What Outcome?
A. Individuals- Estimates
% chance of winning the presidency
Graham Allison Matthew Lantz Sergei Grigoriev Moscow Times Oddsmakers
Yeltsin 24% Zyuganov 30% Yeltsin 30% Yeltsin 40%
Yavlinsky 20% Yeltsin 25% Zyuganov 25% Chernomyrdin 33%
Zyuganov 15% Chernomyrdin 14% Zhiriniovsky20% Zyuganov 29%
Lebed 10% Yavlinsky 12% Lebed 15% Yavlinsky 20%
Chernomyrdin10% Zhirinovsky 10% Yavlinsky 10% Lebed 13%
Zhirinovsky 5% Lebed 9% Chernomyrdin10% No Election 13%
Zhirinovsky 10%
Dark Horse 6%
B. Recent Events Affecting Outcome of Presidential Elections
- GENNADY ZYUGANOV (CP-RF): Communist leader and presidential
front-runner Gennady Zyuganov spent much of the first week of February
attempting to allay Western concerns of a Communist presidential victory in June.
Zyuganov traveled to Davos, Switzerland to the World Economic Forum to speak
to Western government officials and investors. He assured the audience that "a
return to monopoly was impossible and that the Communists support a stable
economy for investors." However, many of his promises appeared vague. For
example, he offered, "Private companies could stay in private hands if they work
well and are being run properly." He also expressed to New York Times
columnist, William Safire that the state should control basic industries, the energy
sector, railroads, defense production, education, and medicine. (Boston Globe
2/3, NYT 2/5, omri 2/5)
Zyuganov''s foreign policy views were explained in an op-ed in the New York
Times on February 1. "We would restore the might of the Russian state and its
status in the world. That would make its policies incomparably more predictable
and responsible than they are today." According to Zyuganov, Russia could
never be a "junior partner" to the United States, nor should America aspire to be
the world''s sole superpower. The Communists seek the voluntary reintegration
of the CIS. He considers Nato expansion dangerous proposal that interferes with
the internal workings of Russia He would delay Start II if the West were to
follow such a policy. He concludes by seeking Western economic cooperation
and exchanges, but asserts, "...we insist on acknowledgment of our equal right
to follow our own path in accordance with our traditions and conditions." (NYT
2/1)
- BORIS YELTSIN: President Yeltsin announced he would make his final
decision on his reelection bid on February 13 to 15. (A Valentine gift to the
world!) In making this announcement he said, "I realize that if I agree [to run],
the struggle will be tough...Those who [I would] be running against are not
exactly ordinary people, but we''ll organize the campaign taking account of the
experience in other countries." Conventional wisdom anticipates a Yeltsin
reelection bid. (Washington Post 1/23)
In January, Yeltsin distributed an internal memo - subsequently leaked to the
press - which urged radical measures to ensure that he stays in power. Actions
suggested included: sacking regional governors who did not sufficiently support
NDR in December, channeling government money into the election campaign,
using state-run media to bolster the campaign, curtailing money to state-owned
regional newspapers which supported opposition candidates, and ensuring that
Yeltsin supporters dominate the Central Election Commission. (FT 1/29)
The Mayor of Moscow, YURI LUZHKOV, has put aside differences with
Yeltsin and joined his campaign staff. His duty will be to deliver Moscow for
the President. (omri 1/22)
Controversy over the Presidential Campaign Headquarters has arisen. Central
Election Commission Chairman NIKOLAI RYABOV said the transformation of
the Headquarters into a campaign office for one candidate would be inadmissible.
First Deputy Prime Minister OLEG SOSKOVETS responded the headquarters
is not a Yeltsin political campaign committee, since Yeltsin has not decided
whether or not to run for reelection. Reports later suggested that recently
dismissed Chief of Staff SERGEI FILATOV will head a separate campaign
headquarters for Yeltsin (Interfax 1/22, omri 1/25, 2/5)
- GRIGORY YAVLINSKY (YABLOKO): On January 27 Yabloko
officially nominated Yavlinsky as its presidential candidate. In his acceptance
speech, Yavlinsky made overtures to charismatic KRO leader ALEXANDER
LEBED, saying coalition discussions were underway not only with GAIDAR-s
Russia''s Democratic Choice, but also with KRO. Lebed responded that "I''m a
friend of all professionals, and Yavlinsky is a professional." Human rights leader
SERGEI KOVALEV claimed Yavlinsky''s proposal to work with KRO was
risky. (NYT 1/28, omri 1/29)
Yavlinsky also expressed his views at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.
He dismissed Communist party leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV as a mere
figurehead controlled by a party yearning to bring back the old Soviet days of
iron-fisted rule. He claimed the Yeltsin government had ruined reform by
allowing run away inflation to occur and then solving the problem by refusing to
pay wages. On Nato expansion, he offered, "Russia has no right to teach other
countries what to do and what blocs they want to be in. Russia has enough
problems inside." (NYT 2/5, Washington Post 2/5)
- VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY (LDPR): Zhirinovsky praised recent hard-
line government policies claiming he likes "the corrections to the course of
reform and Yeltsin''s position on terrorism." The LDPR leader said he would not
criticize the government if its policies started to produce a real improvement in
the lives of Russians. (omri 1/24)
Speaking before the Council of Europe in Strasbourg, France, Zhirinovsky called
the organization a "slime pond for defunct politicians entitled to free meals."
(good line) He then said rejecting Russia''s membership application would drive
voters into his party''s folds. On the START II treaty, he claimed his party
opposed it because it makes Russian a secondary state. The LDPR, according to
Zhirinovsky, supports any agreements "that do not humiliate, insult, or limit
Russia as a great nation." (omri 1/26, Washington Post 2/1)
- ALEXANDER LEBED (KRO): Nezavisimaya gazeta reported on January
26 that general Alexander Lebed was planning to leave KRO due to disputes with
KRO leader YURI SKOKOV. The source claimed Lebed was joining forces
with film maker and Democratic Party of Russia leader STANISLAV
GOVORUHKIN. This rumor was later denied, but it prompted prominent KRO
members to urge Lebed and Skokov to put aside their differences to avoid
destroying the party. (Nezavisimaya Gazeta 1/26)
- SVYATOSLAV FEDOROV: Popular eye doctor and Ross Perot-type
figure, Syvatoslav Fedorov, announced he will seek the Russian presidency. He
claims the "policies of the current president and government are leading us
nowhere." He pledged to double GDP in five years if elected. His party, the
Workers'' Self Government Party, achieved a surprisingly high 3.98% in the
December Duma elections. (omri 2/6)
- FORMER YELTSIN ALLIES OPPOSE YELTSIN ACTIONS AND
CANDIDACY: Numerous former Yeltsin allies have come out against President
Yeltsin''s recent policies and likely reelection bid. A Financial Times editorial
stated, "Like Gorbachev, who reverted to hard-line comrades in an effort to
bolster his shaky grip on power in the dying days of the Soviet Union, Yeltsin has
lurched to the left in an attempt to outmaneuver his popular Communist and
Nationalist rivals." Nobel Peace Prize nominee SERGEI KOVALEV resigned
from the Human Rights Commission and Presidential Council sending a scathing
letter claiming, "If democracy in Russia has a future...it will be in spite of you
and not thanks to you." His departure encouraged other prominent Russians to
leave those organizations. Izvestiya editor OTTO LATSIS wrote of Yeltsin, he
"is doing everything to destroy his already weak chance for support. Use of
force [in Pervomaiskoye] is a misguided attempt to present Yeltsin as a decisive
leader." Former Prime Minister and long time Yeltsin ally, YEGOR GAIDAR
claimed the new Yeltsin policies would not broaden the Yeltsin/Chernomyrdin
electorate and formally renounced his ties with the President. (FT 1/20-1,
Interfax 1/23, Washington Post 1/30, Izvestiya 1/20, Kommersant Daily 1/23)
- UNITED COMMUNISTS?: The three largest left organizations that failed to
enter the Duma in the December elections have agreed to back a central leftist
candidate, most likely CP-RF leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV. At the 5th
Party Congress of the radical Communist Labor Russia party, party leader
VICTOR ANPILOV reversed earlier proclamations and announced his movement
would support the CP-RF. Anpilov earlier had stated he sought a canididate that
would liquidate the institution of the presidency, restore Soviet power, and annul
the results of privatization. CP-RF leaders have not explicitly promised any of
these goals. Agrarian Party leader MIKHAIL LAPSHIN announced during the
last week of January that his party would also back the Communists. Earlier in
the month, Power to the People head, NIKOLAI RYZHKOV threw his support
to the Communists as well. (Interfax 1/23, omri 1/29, 1/30)
- DISORGANIZED REFORMERS: ELLA PAMFILOVA, Duma deputy and head
of the Common Cause bloc, is attempting to convene a congress of all rightist,
right-of-center, and centrist parties and movements to nominate a united
democratic presidential candidate. Commenting on the necessity of unification
Pamfilova argued, "The Communists are uniting; Zhrinovskyites have rallied to
the party of power. Our only possible option today is to unite." In theory,
representatives from as far left as Women of Russian and the Union of
Industrialists to as far right as Russia''s Democratic Choice would join. Pamfilova
claims to have the willingness of GRIGORY YAVLINSKY and YEGOR
GAIDAR in this effort. The group, however, will likely stumble over whom to
nominate. YELTSIN is clearly not acceptable to most, while YAVLINSKY may
be too leftist for the more liberal deputies. (Kommersant Daily 1/31, Obshchaya
Gazeta 2/1-7)
IV. Polling Results For Elections:
- The New York Times reported an unidentified opinion poll on the Russian
presidential election on 2/5:
1. Zyuganov 14%
2. Yavlinsky 11%
3. Zhirinovsky 7%
4. Lebed 6%
5. Yeltsin 5%
50% undecided
- The All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research (VTsIOM) released a
poll of the most popular presidential candidates reported in OMRI on 1/29:
Zyuganov 11.3%
Yavlinsky 7.7%
Zhirinovsky 7.1%
Lebed 5.4%
Yeltsin 5.4%
- The All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research released a poll
conducted of 1600 participants from 1/20-1/25 assessing the most trusted
politicians in Russia. Reported in INTERFAX on 1/31 and in the 2/1-7 issue of
Obshchaya gazeta:
"Name five to six political figures in Russia whom you trust the most."
8/95 11/95 1/96
Zyuganov 6% 11% 17%
Yavlinsky 9% 15% 15%
Lebed 10% 13% 14%
Sv. Fedorov 7% 8% 9%
Zhirinovsky 7% 7% 9%
Chernomyrdin 7% 10% 9%
Gaidar 4% 7% 9%
E. Pamfilova 4% 5% 7%
B. Nemtsov 6% 6% 6%
Y. Luzhkov 2% 4% 5%
Yeltsin 2% 4% 5%
ZYUGANOV is trusted by executives, managers, pensioners, those over 55, those with less than
a secondary school education, men, and rural individuals.
YAVLINSKY is trusted by executives, students, entrepreneurs, professionals, unemployed, 25-
45 year olds, those higher educated, and city dwellers.
LEBED is trusted by the military, law enforcement officers, professionals, executives, men,
those between the ages of 40-55, those with a secondary education, and rural individuals.
ZHIRINOVSKY is trusted by the military, students, unemployed, workers, men, those under
40, and those with a secondary education.