Books
RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
May 9, 1996, No. 20
To help track significant developments affecting Russian elections, the Strengthening Democratic
Institutions Project offers a simplified summary of recent political events, including "betting charts."
Individual''s estimates of the likelihood of Russian elections and their results are presented as numerical
estimated probabilities not because anyone entertains illusions about precision, but to make the estimators
state their bets as clearly as possible.
I. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential Election in June
A. Betting Charts:
Individual Likelihood Change From Last Week
Graham Allison (SDI Director) 65%
Sergei Grigoriev (SDI Fellow) 70% +5%
Matthew Lantz (SDI Researcher) 65%
B. Events Affecting the Election in June:
THE CANDIDATES: The Central Election Commission (CEC) registered 11 out of 17 candidates who
turned in signatures by the April 16 deadline.
Registered Candidates with party affiliation and registration date:
Gennady Zyuganov : Communist Party (CP-RF) (March 4)
Boris Yeltsin (April 3)
Vladimir Zhirinovsky : Liberal Democratic Party (April 5)
Mikhail Gorbachev : Civic Forum (April 12)
Grigory Yavlinsky : Yabloko Bloc (April 19)
Svyatoslav Fedorov : Workers'' Self Gov''t Party (April 19)
Alexander Lebed : Democratic Party of Russia/KRO (April 19)
Martin Shakkum : "Reform" think tank director (April 22)
Vladimir Bryntsalov : Duma Deputy, People''s Power Faction (April 26)
Aman Tuliev : Chairman of Kemerovo Oblast legislature, CP-RF (April 26)
Yuri Vlazov : World champion weight-lifter, nationalist (April 26)
Candidates denied registration:
Artem Tarasov : businessman
Sergei Mavrodi : president of notorious MMM pyramid scheme
Vladimir Podoprigora : former member of Federation Council (upper house)
Candidates denied registration with appeals pending before Supreme Court:
Vyacheslav Ushakov : businessman
Lev Ubozhko : Leader, Conservative Party
Galina Starovoitova : Duma Deputy, Co-leader Democratic Russia party.
(information from OMRI suppl. 5/3)
IMPORTANT DATES IN CAMPAIGN:
April 29 : beginning of campaign in the printed media.
May 5 : lottery held by CEC to determine free airtime on state-run television.
May 14 : beginning of campaign on TV and radio.
May 18 : Central Election Commission approves text of ballot.
May 26 : day by which ballots must be printed.
May 31 : beginning of early voting in remote regions and for sailors who will be at sea.
June 14 : last day of campaigning.
June 15 : last day candidates may withdraw from race.
June 16 : first round of election.
July 1 : last day by which first round results must be reported.
July 7? : likely date for second round of election.
(Sevodnya 4/24, OMRI suppl. 5/3, International Foundation for Electoral Systems information)
KORZHAKOV ARGUES TO CANCEL THE ELECTION: Presidential body guard and close Yeltsin
confidant ALEXANDER KORZHAKOV, in the clearest sign that some in the Kremlin want to ensure that
Yeltsin maintains power, called for the presidential election to be postponed. "Many influential people in
Russia support postponing the elections because we need stability more than anything else now."
Korzhakov predicted unrest in Russia no matter who won the election. "If Yeltsin wins, Zyuganov will
claim the results were falsified. If Zyuganov wins, radicals in his party will not allow a centrist policy and
push him to extreme measures."
Reactions to the bodyguard''s statement were swift. President YELTSIN declared that the election
would not be put off and told Korzhakov to stay out of politics. "I still believe in the wisdom of the
Russian voters," said the President. The President also assured President CLINTON in a phone
conversation that the election will be held. CEC Chairman NIKOLAI RYABOV stated the election will go
ahead as scheduled, and that he is not under any pressure from Korzhakov. Communist leader and front-
runner GENNADY ZYUGANOV said any postponement would be a gross violation of the constitution.
Liberal reformer and presidential candidate GRIGORY YAVLINSKY believed Korzhakov was only
expressing his personal opinion and said the subject did not come up in his meeting with Yeltsin.
However, Izvestiya correspondent SERGEI CHUGAYEV warned, "The Kremlin''s occupants have
more than one plan for staying in power...If Yeltsin can win by democratic means, then he would rather do
it that way. But if he thinks he will lose, then he wants people to know he has another plan. Korzhakov is
merely the messenger." (FT, NYT, Boston Globe, OMRI 5/6,7)
Following the Korzhakov announcement, Col. General LEONTY KUZNETSOV, the Moscow
Military District Commander, also called for the postponement of the election. He said the election would
"split the Russian population into two camps." He claimed many officers in his district shared his view.
(Boston Globe 5/8, OMRI 5/9)
BANKERS HINT AT POSTPONEMENT OR COMPROMISE: Thirteen of Russia''s leading bankers and
entrepreneurs sent a letter attempting to persuade the leading presidential candidates to develop a joint-
policy to avoid chaos resulting from the election. They threatened to withhold financial support from
candidates who did not address their request. The group fears that a victory by either Zyuganov or Yeltsin
could lead to upheaval and civil war. BORIS BERESOVSKY, Director of Logovaz, Deputy Chairman of
the Board of state-run television, and one of the Group of 13, urged Yeltsin and Zyuganov to agree to
cancel or delay the elections and instead form a coalition government, or to establish a state council of all
major parties that would govern until elections in 2-5 years. "The question is not whether or not to
postpone the elections...the problem is finding a legal way to do it...Either we find a compromise or we face
a civil war." Some have suggested the Group of 13 were acting at the behest of President Yeltsin. (FT
4/26, Izvestiya 4/27, OMRI 4/29, 5/6, NYT 5/7)
President YELTSIN responded to the letter by issuing invitations to his rivals to discuss the
election. GENNADY ZYUGANOV was included in the invitation list. Zyuganov responded that he was
willing to talk with Yeltsin about alternatives for calming the feverish political mood in order to avoid civil
conflict. He suggested one option would be a live debate on TV. In a letter to the Communist-oriented
Sovetskaya Rossiya, Zyuganov called for three additional measures to strengthen political stability: (1)
amend the constitution to reduce the president''s powers; (2) increase the authority of the parliament to
oversee government activities; (3) hold direct elections of all heads of local administrations after the
presidential elections. In the last week, Yeltsin did hold meetings with presidential candidates Gen.
ALEXANDER LEBED and GRIGORY YAVLINSKY (see below for details). (Sovetskaya Rossiya 4/30,
OMRI 4/30, FT 5/1)
On May 6, the Group of 13 issued a second letter denouncing "extremist forces" surrounding the
main candidates. The statement equated ALEXANDER KORZHAKOV''s postponement rumblings with
radical Communists who urge their followers to fight until "the last drop of blood." (OMRI 5/7)
CEC DENOUNCES ELECTION MONITORING LAW: The Central Election Commission Deputy
Chairman ALEXANDER IVANCHENKO warned if the election monitoring law passed by the Duma in
late April is approved by the upper house and signed by the President, "It will disorganize the presidential
campaign." Ivanchenko declared there would be no falsification and that allegations of fraud are only made
by candidates expecting to lose. The CEC has consistently rebuffed attempts to increase societal oversight
over elections which has fanned suspicion about its loyalties. (OMRI 4/18)
ELECTION FINANCES: CEC Finance Director TAMARA PETRONAVICHUS announced that the CEC
had only received 40% of its budgeted funds and the situation was worse than during the Duma campaign.
(OMRI 4/19)
The government will divide four billion rubles ($810,000) among the candidates. They must
submit spending reports showing how their money was spent within 30 days after the election. However,
some Duma deputies have yet to report their campaign finance activity from December. (Vek No. 17)
MEDIA COSTS: Airtime costs on Ostankino (ORT) will be between $2000 and $28,000 per minute.
General Director KIRILL IGNATYEV states the costs are "no different than the channel''s usual
commercial airtime rates." (Sevodnya 4/27)
MEDIA BIAS?: NIKOLAI SVANIDZE, a commentator on Russian TV, spoke on the media''s support for
Yeltsin. "I am not sure the West understands that a political battle without any rules is raging in Russia. If
the Communists win, the media will lose its independence. We have no choice." (Moscow News 4/11-17)
"NYET": A group has been organized that will ask voters to vote against all candidates in the second
round. If "None of the Above" gets more votes than both candidates, new elections must be called in three
months. Recent polls show that 18% of voters reject both YELTSIN and ZYUGANOV in the second
round. (OMRI 4/23)
II. If June Presidential Election, Who Wins?
A. Individuals'' Estimates
% chance of winning the presidency
Graham Allison Matthew Lantz Sergei Grigoriev Moscow Futures Traders''
Bets1 (April 30, 1996)
Yeltsin 33% Zyuganov 46% Yeltsin 50% Zyuganov 28.51%
Zyuganov 25% Yeltsin 41% Zyuganov 50% Yeltsin 27.53%
Yavlinsky 20% Yavlinsky 5% Zhirinovsky 11%
Zhirinovsky 10% Chernomyrdin 4% Yavlinsky 10%
Lebed 5% Zhirinovsky 3% Lebed 5.55%
Lebed 1% Fedorov 4.8%
Gorbachev 2.4%
1 Betting began on the Moscow Stock Exchange on 4/22. Speculators can purchase futures contracts
indicating the % of vote they expect a candidate to receive in the first round. No second round betting has
been established yet. Reported in OMRI, FT 4/23, Izvestiya 5/5)
B. Recent Events Involving Presidential Candidates:
BORIS YELTSIN: On the Campaign Trail with Boris:
In Budennovsk: At the site of last year''s hostage crisis, candidate Yeltsin explained he had come
to the source of confrontation to assure voters that he would bring an end to the war in Chechnya. It was
later announced that the President will go to Chechnya itself on May 16. Acting Chechen President
ZELIMKHAN YANDARBIYEV warned that he could not guarantee the President''s safety. Yeltsin
explained his reasons for the trip as, "Firstly, to thank the servicemen who have done a big job; secondly, to
meet with elders." (NYT 4/18, OMRI 5/6)
At the May Day Celebrations: Speaking before a trade union rally with Moscow Mayor YURI
LUZHKOV, Yeltsin urged the audience to support him to ensure "democracy, social justice, and
continuation of reform." He blamed wage and pension arrears on unscrupulous managers and stated the
government had begun 1261 criminal cases. (NYT 5/2, OMRI 5/2)
In Yaroslav: Yeltsin declared while not beyond criticism, he has been considered a defender of
free speech and warned that if his opponents came to power, they would curtail press freedoms. He also
promised, against the wishes of his Finance Minister VLADIMIR PANSKOV, to restore a major tax break
for failing factories. The tax break had been abandoned as part of the IMF deal. Panskov warned that if the
tax break were implemented, it would cost millions and could wreak the budget and IMF loan. (NYT 5/4)
Yeltsin the Statesman: The G-7 "Nuclear Summit" took place in Moscow on April 18-19. Yeltsin used the
opportunity to demonstrate his credentials as an international statesman. He hoped to show that should
Zyuganov win the election, a return to Cold War-type isolation might occur. In the summit, he called for
signing of the test ban treaty by September and agreed to more stringent nuclear safety standards. The next
G-7 meeting will be in Lyon, France at the height of the election campaign. GENNADY ZYUGANOV
berated the whole meeting as a Western tactic to bolster Yeltsin. (NYT, FT 4/19,20,21, OMRI 4/20)
After the summit, Yeltsin held his tenth one-on-one meeting with BILL CLINTON and claimed
progress on issues such as the ABM and CFE treaties. Issues such as NATO, nuclear assistance to Iran,
Chechnya, and the Middle East Peace process remained unresolved. Clinton assured the press that the
United States would honor the Russian people''s decision. (NYT 4/21)
In Beijing on April 25, Yeltsin again attempted to show his international diplomatic side by
signing a number of bilateral accords on arms sales, trade, and border disputes. (NYT 4/25, FT 4/26)
Who''s Who in the Yeltsin Campaign - A Tour of Campaign Headquarters: Kommersant Daily toured the
Yeltsin Campaign Headquarters floor by floor and described campaign personnel and their functions. On
the eighth floor of the "Presidential hotel" GEORGY ROGOZIN, the Deputy Chief of Presidential Security
Service, is responsible for security and some image-making. Located on the ninth floor are the campaign
leaders: YURI YAROV, the campaign''s executive head, VIKTOR ILYUSHIN, First Presidential Advisor,
who exerts strategic control over the campaign, and Yeltsin''s daughter TATYANA DYACHENKO, who
ensures direct contact between the headquarters and the President. Dyachenko also brought on a long-time
friend, VIKTORIYA MITINA, whose position in the campaign is not yet clear.
On the less opulent tenth floor are the offices of the All-Russian Movement for Public Support of
the President (ODOP) which is responsible for attracting the support of parties and organizations to the
President''s campaign. SERGEI FILATOV, the Campaign Manager leads this effort. The Prime Minister''s
Our Home is Russia (NDR) heads the campaign''s press center. YURI PETROV, who ran Ivan Rybkin''s ill-
fated Duma campaign, is in charge of voter outreach. VYACHESLAV NIKONOV, also involved in
Rybkin''s campaign and president of the "Politika Fund," heads the campaign''s analytical team. The money
in the campaign begins with Nikonov and travels from Filatov through Yarov to ANATOLY CHUBAIS,
the recently fired First Deputy Prime Minister for the economy, who controls the campaign''s purse-strings.
IGOR MINTUSOV, the executive director of the consulting group NikoloM, and YEKATERINA
YEGOROVA, also with NikoloM, are the campaign''s chief image-makers.
Kommersant Daily claims that by comparing the opulent ninth floor to the less cushy tenth floor
one can observe the "nomenklature organization of the campaign." The paper argues the campaign has not
learned the lessons of Our Home is Russia''s campaign for the State Duma in December. (Kommersant Daily
4/26)
Yeltsin Campaign Strategy: A supplement to Nezavisimaya Gazeta called NG-Stsenary stated there are
three strands to the Yeltsin campaign strategy: (1) highlight the split between radical and moderate wings of
the left; (2) emphasize the left''s radical views and declare local branches support these radical positions; and
(3) stress that ZYUGANOV has no practical experience in government and is just a bureaucrat. (NG-
Stsenary 4/20, OMRI suppl. 5/3)
Yeltsin on a Zyuganov victory: Speaking in Kazakhstan on his return trip from China, Yeltsin warned that a
Zyuganov victory would lead to chaos and civil war. "There would be no property at all...it''s already war.
It''s division. We already had that in our history...I am confident of victory, which gives me the strength
every day to fight for a second term as President and complete reforms...and not let chaos take over Russia."
He went on to stress a Communist victory would damage the other countries of the CIS. (Boston Globe
4/28)
Yeltsin also warned that economic reforms could be reversed should the Communists come to
power. He said his opponents were willing "to act without any limits, as happened after 1917." He called
the Communists the "party of revanche" that rejects "any moral norms" and is driven by a thirst for revenge.
(OMRI 5/7)
Gaidar Backs Yeltsin: Former Prime Minister YEGOR GAIDAR and the Moscow branch of his party,
Russia''s Democratic Choice, announced it would support President Yeltsin''s reelection campaign.
However, some prominent members of the party including human rights advocate SERGEI KOVALEV
stated they could only support Yabloko leader GRIGORY YAVLINSKY. Appealing to his colleagues to
support Yeltsin over Yavlinsky, former First Deputy Prime Minister ANATOLY CHUBAIS argued "It is
absolutely clear that Yavlinsky will not win." and that a vote not cast for Yeltsin is a vote for Zyuganov.
(Washington Post 4/28, OMRI 4/29)
Campaign Courts Regional Press: Chief of Staff, NIKOLAI YEGOROV announced the creation of a
regional press agency to give regional journalists more of an opportunity to interview top leaders and
accompany the President on his travels. The move is to facilitate local coverage of the President''s
campaign. (OMRI 4/23)
On May 6-7 the new organization held a seminar for 80 TV and 60 radio journalists. The reporters
met with high government officials and had all their expenses paid. In his meeting with the group, Yeltsin
said, "I am not calling on you to campaign on behalf of candidate Yeltsin, but I expect from you a
responsible attitude toward what is happening in Russia." (OMRI 5/9)
Red Flag Flies Again: In an effort to win the support of nationalist voters before the patriotic Victory Day
holiday, Yeltsin signed a decree restoring the red banner. Instead of the hammer and sickle, the reinstated
red banner will have a gold star on it. (FT 4/19)
GENNADY ZYUGANOV (CP-RF): Zyuganov''s Economic Plan: As the election approaches, a brain trust
is developing in Communist circles to determine how to move away from the reform economy. Common
themes include: (1) a dislike of the IMF and its restrictions on printing money and trade barriers; (2)
stimulating the economy through industrial and agricultural production and assisting (propping up)
inefficient factories; (3) allowing some privatization; and (4) stressing Russia''s uniqueness and exception to
laws of economics. In describing his economic plan on NTV, Zyuganov declared all forms of property
would be respected, but declined to give an explicit guarantee for private property. He equivocated on how
to control inflation or meet IMF conditions.
In response to emerging Communist economic policy, VLADIMIR MAU, of Yegor Gaidar''s
liberal Institute for the Economy in Transition, stated, "They do not understand how the economy
works...and want to make the economy old-style, so that they will know how to deal with it." (NYT 5/7,
OMRI 4/23)
Zyuganov''s Campaign Strategy: A supplement to Nezavisimaya Gazeta (NG-Stsenary) stated there are four
strands to the Zyuganov campaign strategy: (1) finger Yeltsin as the person primarily responsible for the
collapse of the Soviet Union, the current economic chaos, and the war in Chechnya; (2) emphasize the local
media in the campaign''s media outreach; (3) stress Yeltsin is inclined toward dictatorship; and (4)
underscore Yeltsin''s poor health and bad habits. (NG-Stsenary 4/20, OMRI suppl. 5/3)
Zyuganov Meets With Clinton: Following President CLINTON''s meeting with Boris Yeltsin, he met with a
diverse group of Russian leaders including Communists Zyuganov and Duma Speaker GENNADY
SELEZNEV, presidential candidates YAVLINSKY and LEBED, and Moscow Mayor YURI LUZHKOV.
Zyuganov told Clinton that a Communist victory would not mean a return to the totalitarian past. He
claimed he supported political pluralism and freedom of speech. He later told the press, "Relations between
us are friendly and will continue to be so." Yavlinsky and former First Deputy Prime Minister ANATOLY
CHUBAIS cautioned Clinton not to trust the Communist''s words. (OMRI 4/20, NYT 4/22)
Zyuganov''s Foreign Policy Agenda: The Communist-supporting Spiritual Heritage Institute released a
document outlining the Communist party''s foreign policy priorities. It states that the Communists recognize
the principles of foreign relations as have been established by the UN Charter and the Helsinki Conference
for Security and Cooperation in Europe. For them, the most important objectives are a "belt of friendship
along the perimeters of the Russian border, the strengthening of political mechanisms to maintain security in
Europe, and renunciating the policy of blocs." The draft was written by ALEXEI PODBEREZKIN the
Deputy Chair of the Duma''s International Relations Committee. (Nezavisimaya Gazeta 4/17)
On his only international trip during the campaign, Zyuganov in Germany warned the West not to
back Yeltsin in the June election, saying it would be a mistake to support just one politician. German
Chancellor HELMUT KOHL and Foreign Minister KLAUS KINKEL refused to meet with Zyuganov.
(OMRI 5/7)
Zyuganov on Defense: MIKHAIL SURKOV, Duma Deputy and member of Presidium of CP-RF,
announced that Zyuganov plans to create a special defense council. The council would be chaired by the
president and control the power ministries of Defense, Interior, and Federal Security Service (former KGB).
Unlike today, the General Staff of the Armed Services would report directly to Zyuganov rather than to the
Defense Minister. (OMRI 5/3)
Communist or Social Democrat?: Asked in the nationalist Zavtra newspaper if he were a social democrat of
a Communist, Zyuganov described himself as the leader of the largest party and the largest faction in the
Duma. On religion, he went on to state that he was not a believer, but was familiar with "all three world
religions: Orthodoxy, Islam, and Buddhism." According to Zyuganov, the Russian culture is based on two
ideas: respect for the fatherland (patriotism) and social justice (Christian socialism). (OMRI suppl. 5/3)
Media Bias?: As Zyuganov campaigned in Chelyabinsk on April 17, NTV and ORT called attention to the
fact that the Communist leader was turned away from speaking at a factory where Yeltsin had appeared
weeks before. The networks did not carry the Reuters version of the story which stated that in order to
receive their promised tax breaks, the factories were under pressure from the Yeltsin camp not to receive
Zyuganov. (OMRI 4/18)
An anti-Communist newspaper entitled God Forbid is urging voters in Zyuganov''s home region of
Orel to vote for anyone but Zyuganov. The first issue (10 million copies) was left free of charge to
practically all newspaper subscribers in the region. The financing of the paper is murky. (OMRI 4/24,
Washington Post 4/30)
Despite these obstacles Zyuganov remains more accessible to the media than Yeltsin. Unlike
Yeltsin, the Communist leader meets with reporters on a weekly basis. (Kommersant Daily 4/27)
On the Campaign Trail with Zyuganov: Zyuganov took advantage of national holidays over the last two
weeks to take his case to the Russian people. Speaking on Lenin''s birthday at Lenin''s tomb, he labeled
Lenin as "a man who made a huge contribution to the development of all civilization on the planet." At a
May Day celebration in Moscow before 8000 supporters, he rallied the crowd with other leaders of the left
including Agrarian Party leader MIKHAIL LAPSHIN, Communist Duma Speaker GENNADY
SELEZNEV, and leader of the Stalinist Labor Russia party VIKTOR ANPILOV. (Boston Globe 4/23, 5/2,
FT, NYT 5/2)
Fraud Warning: Zyuganov warned of fraud in the June 16 presidential election. Without directly referring
to Yeltsin, he claimed to have information from US intelligence sources stating fraud would occur. He also
declared the 1993 Constitutional referendum was falsified. Zyuganov pledged his party would watch the
vote carefully. (OMRI 4/29)
Communist Cabinet?: The liberal weekly Moskovskiy Novosti claimed it had learned the likely
composition of some of Zyuganov''s presidential cabinet. VIKTOR STARODUBTSEV, a 1991 coup-
plotter, would serve as Agriculture Minister. ALBERT MAKASHOV is slated for Defense Minister, and
Stalinist VIKTOR ANPILOV will handle media relations. There has been no confirmation of these names
in others sources. (Moscow News 4/11-17)
Zyuganov Victory in the First Round?: Zyuganov claimed he could win the first round. "If we add a bit to
our support in the December parliament election ( about 22 million voters ( we have a chance not only to do
well in the presidential election, but to win in the first round." (Boston Globe 4/24)
Reformer to Leave Russia if Zyuganov Wins: Leader of the tiny Economic Reform Party KONSTANTIN
BOROVOI stated, "If Zyuganov and the Communists win, I have little choice but to emigrate...or take up a
Kalasnikov. I have these two options." (Kommersant Daily 4/26)
GRIGORY YAVLINSKY (YABLOKO): Yavlinsky Meets With Yeltsin: For the second time in five years
Grigory Yavlinsky met with the President. The two hour meeting on May 5 discussed the campaign and the
likelihood of Yavlinsky endorsing Yeltsin. Rumors of an impending merger between the two have
circulated in Moscow for over a week. Yavlinsky set out the conditions for the merger in a letter
given to the President during their meeting. Yavlinsky seeks an economic policy that stimulates production
and relieves the tax burden. He wants a social policy that pays wage arrears and improves real income.
Military cuts should be ended and "urgent measures" should be taken to stop crime. Finally, the
government should cease putting political pressure on the media. (Izvestiya 5/7, OMRI 5/7)
Many believe Yavlinsky has asked to be Yeltsin''s Prime Minister. Writing in Moscow News,
IGOR KLYAMKIN, the head of the Public Opinion Foundation, stated should Yavlinsky join Yeltsin and
become Prime Minister, this might satisfy a public with no better options. The question in such a scenario,
according to Klyamkin, is whether the power ministers would allow such a union to form, and whether
Yeltsin is strong enough to oppose them if they do not. Kommersant Daily stated that Yeltsin is only
willing to make Yavlinsky a deputy prime minister. (OMRI 5/6, NPR 5/9, Moscow News 4/18-24,
Kommersant Daily 5/7)
Yavlinsky, for his part, is downplaying any cooperation saying the two had to resolve numerous
difficult problems. However, on May 8 Yavlinsky stated he was willing to discuss with Yeltsin the
possibility of uniting the democratic candidates. GENNADY ZYUGANOV said of the possible union that
it would end Yavlinsky''s career. (OMRI 5/9)
Or Yavlinsky Could Go It Alone: MARINA SHAKINA, writing in Nezavisimaya Gazeta believes
Yavlinsky''s ultimate campaign strategy is "Me in the second round." Yavlinsky will not join forces with
another candidate and believes he can defeat ZYUGANOV if he can only reach the second round. The pro-
Communist Sovetskaya Rossiya agrees that Yavlinsky would be the most difficult candidate to defeat in the
second round because he continually polls as the least objectionable candidate. Shakina, however, believes
Yavlinsky''s ultimate strategy is to position himself for future elections. The problem with such a strategy,
says Shakina, is that future elections may not be held and that there is no guarantee that Yavlinsky would be
the reformers'' choice. (Nezavisimaya Gazeta 4/18, Sovetskaya Rossiya 4/27)
Yavlinsky''s Economic Promises: Yavlinsky stated if elected, he could defeat inflation within three years,
after which he could make the ruble fully convertible. He admitted it would take a generation for Russia to
climb out of its economic hole. He also bemoaned an "information blockade" against him in the media.
(Sobesednik no. 16-17, OMRI suppl. 5/3)
Disorganized Campaign: The Moscow Times called Yavlinsky''s campaign disorganized, as seen by the fact
that although he has been hinting at it for two years, Yavlinsky has no economic program. Additionally, the
Yaroslav Yabloko branch issued an appeal for democrats to unite in their support behind YELTSIN.
(Russia Review 5/6, OMRI 4/23)
VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY (LDPR): Campaigning in Rostov-na-Donu: Zhirinovsky offered to solve
Russia''s problems of capital flight by arresting the family members of swindlers who have sent capital
abroad. "They have relatives here. I will say, ''Send the money back to Russia and take your relatives over
there.'' They''ll return the money." He also advised the crowd not to vote for ZYUGANOV because his last
job was that of a math teacher. "You already failed math in school, didn''t you? And you all disliked your
math teacher..." (OMRI suppl. 5/3)
Predictions ala Vladimir Volfovich: Zhirinovsky predicted 22-23% for ZYUGANOV and 11% or more for
himself. In a run-off between Yeltsin and Zyuganov, Zyuganov would win. Zhirinovsky declared in such a
situation, he would not endorse either candidate. It would cost him too much credibility. He also believes
if Yeltsin wins, there will be new elections within the year, and if Zyuganov wins perhaps two. Zhirinovsky
does not rule out bloody conflict as a result of the election. (Postimees [Estonian] 4/26)
The Media and Zhirinovsky: Perhaps learning from their mistakes of 1993 and 1995, the media has for the
most part ignored the campaign of Zhirinovsky, and consequently the campaign has failed to ignite.
However, judging by his racy commercials in the Duma election, Zhirinovsky will demand media attention
in the month prior to the election. (Russia Review 5/3)
ALEXANDER LEBED (DPR/KRO): Lebed Meets with Yeltsin: General Alexander Lebed met with
YELTSIN on May 2 to discuss the election. Yeltsin Campaign Manager SERGEI FILATOV said he hoped
the talks would encourage Lebed to withdraw from the race and support Yeltsin. However, Lebed
announced after the half hour meeting, "We established the fact I will be participating in the election." He
denied that Yeltsin had offered him the position of Defense Minister. Lebed also stated he agreed with
Yeltsin that all candidates should refrain from stirring up ethnic and class tensions. He went on to suggest
that all candidates take a formal pledge to not challenge the election results, even though he was one of the
few candidates to challenge the December Duma election tallies. (OMRI 5/3)
Lebed on the Campaign Trail in Novgorod: "There have to be changes, but not abrupt radical changes,"
said General Lebed. He claimed the first article he would sign as president would give ZHIRINOVSKY the
title of People''s Performing Artist. YURI POPOV is now in charge of Lebed''s campaign. Popov and
Lebed have been friends for years. The military experience of both men is attributed to the success of
Lebed''s signature drive. Popov''s adept management of the campaign has encouraged regional groups of the
Congress of Russian Communities (KRO-Lebed''s old party) to break with party doctrine and support
Lebed. (Sevodnya 4/19, Nezavisimaya Gazeta 4/18)
Lebed on Dudayev''s Death: General Lebed predicted the Chechen rebels would fight among themselves
now that their leader has been killed. "When a major leader goes, smaller contenders begin to divide up his
post, and this always weakens the system." (NYT 4/25)
THIRD FORCE (LEBED, SVYATOSLAV FEDOROV, YAVLINSKY): Third Force Rises and Falls:
Throughout the end of April, rumors circulated in Russia and the West that the Third Force group of Lebed,
eye surgeon Svyatoslav Fedorov, and Yavlinsky were about to issue joint statements announcing their
intentions to form a coalition to run for the presidency. Fedorov announced he would be willing to step
aside for one of the other two. Lebed and Yavlinsky both stated in separate press conferences that they
were conducting intense negotiations. Rumors surfaced that Lebed was also preparing to step aside for
Yavlinsky. The prospect of a Lebed/Yavlinsky merger even prompted the New York Times to editorialize
that such a merger between two such disparate camps would be damaging for Russia''s democratic chances.
(OMRI 4/24, NYT 4/30, 5/1)
In the first week of May the potential coalition unraveled. Lebed announced to Izvestiya on May 6
that he would not withdraw his candidacy in favor of the Yabloko leader and would fight until the end of the
campaign. Fedorov followed with his own statement that he too would not withdraw his presidential
candidacy. Underscoring the differences between the three men, in Fedorov''s announcement he declared he
might be willing to take the position as prime minister under a Zyuganov presidency. (FT 5/5, NYT 5/6,
OMRI 5/7,9, Izvestiya 5/7, ITAR-TASS 5/8)
Why Third Force Was Destined to Fail: The Russia Review, the weekly edition of the English language
Moscow Times, argued Third Force was destined to fail for four reasons: (1) the group was unable to rally
around common issues and present itself as a legitimate alternative to YELTSIN or ZYUGANOV; (2) the
Communists have an effective monopoly on disenchantment with the government and economic policy; (3)
the anti-Chechen war momentum of the group was stifled by Yeltsin''s peace initiatives; (4) the group did
not project a strong leader; and (5) the political egos of Yavlinsky, Lebed, and Fedorov would never have
allowed two to step aside for one of the others. (Russia Review 5/6)
MIKHAIL GORBACHEV: Gorbachev Punched: The former Soviet President campaigning in Omsk,
Siberia was punched in the side of the head. Although unhurt, Gorbachev canceled the rest of his campaign
trip and returned to Moscow. He demanded that Yeltsin investigate the incident. As similar incident ( this
time a slap ( was reported and then denied on May 9. (Boston Globe 4/25, 5/10)
Civic Forum Inaugural Congress: Gorbachev''s backers held the founding congress of the Civic Forum in
Moscow. The executive director will be VASILY LIPITSKY. At the congress, Gorbachev stated he
agreed with the Yeltsin maxim, "Reforms should be finished by whoever started it." He condemned the
Communists as unreconstructed but had good words to say about the Third Force candidates. (OMRI suppl.
5/3)
III. Polling Results For Presidential Election:
Polls assessing popularity of candidates:
Kremlin sources say an extensive survey conducted by the President''s own analytical team showed Yeltsin
trailing Gennady Zyuganov by 20%. The poll, whose results have been kept secret, suggested that Yeltsin
might even place third behind Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Reported in the Boston Globe 5/7.
A poll by the ROMIR agency was reported by NTV on the popularity of the presidential candidates.
(OMRI 5/6)
In the first round:
Yeltsin 28%
Zyuganov 28%
Yavlinsky 7%
Lebed 7%
Fedorov 6%
Zhirinovsky 5%
Gorbachev 2%
Undecided 15%
In the second round, the poll showed Yeltsin and Zyuganov tied. Zyuganov has not gained additional
support since the beginning of March, and Yeltsin has made up a nine point deficit. Yeltsin''s improvement
in this poll may be a result of Chernomyrdin and Gaidar not appearing in the poll. In previous polls they
had earned about 5% of the vote.
A poll by the ISP organization was at odds with most recent polls that show Yeltsin gaining on Zyuganov.
It asked 6000 Russians (a broader margin than usual) in early April who they preferred for president.
Reported in the Financial Times on 5/1.
Zyuganov 38-47%
Yeltsin 16-20%
This poll alone predicted a strong showing by Zhirinovsky.
A poll by the Russian Independent Institution for Social and Natural Problems found that if Zhirinovsky got
into the second round against either Yeltsin or Zyuganov, nearly 50% of individuals would vote for "None
of the Above." If "None of the Above" receives more votes than both candidates in the second round, the
election is declared void and a new election must be held within three months. It is not determined whether
only the same two candidates will compete in the rescheduled elections. (OMRI suppl. 5/3, Sovetskaya
Rossiya 4/27)
A poll sponsored by the Moscow Times and CNN and conducted by the Institute for Comparative Social
Research (CESSI) was reported in The Boston Globe on 4/24 and The New York Times on 4/30. The poll
of 1201 individuals was the first major survey to place Boris Yeltsin ahead of Gennady Zyuganov.
Yeltsin 20.7%
Zyuganov 19.8%
Yavlinsky 7%
Lebed 5%
Zhirinovsky 5%
Sv. Fedorov 3%
The All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research (VTsIOM) released a poll assessing the negative
popularity of the presidential candidates. The poll was reported in Sevodnya on 4/18 and OMRI on 4/19:
56% would not want to see ZHIRINOVSKY elected under any circumstances.
37% would not want to see YELTSIN elected under any circumstances.
25% would not want to see ZYUGANOV elected under any circumstances.
9% would not want to see LEBED elected under any circumstances.
6% would not want to see YAVLINSKY elected under any circumstances.
4% would not want to see FEDOROV elected under any circumstances.
The All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research (VTsIOM) released a poll assessing the popularity
of the presidential candidates in the first round. The poll was reported in OMRI on 4/18:
In the first round:
Zyuganov 26%
Yeltsin 18%
(no other results reported)
In the second round:
Zyuganov 29%
Yeltsin 28%
40% of those polled believe Yeltsin will win.
23% of those polled believe Zyuganov will win.
The Vox Populi Group released results of a telephone survey of 400 public opinion leaders taken from
March 18-25. The results were reported in Nezavisimaya Gazeta on 4/17.
"Which realistic or potential Russian presidential candidates are more actively than others supported by the
people today and should the election take place tomorrow, who would win them?" (Respondents allowed to
answer with as many names as they like)
January February March
Zyuganov 77.3% 91.6% 93.9%
Yeltsin 64.2% 81.1% 87.6%
Yavlinsky 38.1% 39.6% 47.6%
Zhirinovsky 37.1% 43.4% 26.3%
Lebed 18.9% 7.6% 6.1%
Fedorov 1.3% .9% 1.1%