Books
RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
May 22, 1995 No. 1
I. The Probability of Duma Elections in December 1995
A. Individuals Likelihood Change From Last Week
Graham Allison (5/17): 75%
SDI Project
John Lloyd (5/17): 70%
SDI Project Fellow
Financial Times
Alexei Ulyukaev (5/5): 90%
Russia''s Democratic Choice
Moscow Head
Matthew Lantz (5/22) 80%
SDI Project
B. Recent Events in Favor of Parliamentary Elections:
C. Recent Events in Opposition to Parliamentary Elections:
YELTSIN VETOS DUMA ELECTION LAW: despite liberal aids promise that he will sign it. Has three major disputes: Seeks the number of Duma members elected off party lists to be limited to 150 as opposed to the current 225. This should give more power to regional elections and make the Duma less Moscow-centric. Second, minimum turnout for a valid election should be 50%, not the current 25%. Rybkin calls this aspect highly unlikely. Third, Yeltsin objects to the provision that calls for government officials to suspend professional activities two months before the elections. Claims such a provision would leave Russia without leadership for two months. Yeltsin will resubmit legislation to Duma with these changes.
Unclear the reaction. Speaker Rybkin sees compromise as possible. CP-RF leader Zyuganov and leaders of Yabloko say they will fight the changes. Russia''s Choice members feel law could be passed by July. (omri May 23-24, 95)
Izvestia reports that YELTSIN IS NERVOUS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF CHERNOMYRDIN''S
RUSSIA IS OUR HOME bloc. Failure of Speaker Rybkin to form a similar bloc worries Yeltsin that Cheromyrdin
may have a party organization to run for President. Therefore, Yeltsin may postpone December Parliamentary
elections until June to force Chernomyrdin to run for the Duma and not the presidency. (omri 5/19)
IF TWO NEW BLOCS ARE AHEAD IN POLLS PRIOR TO ELECTION, ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD, IF NOT CANCELED, reports Rossiya. Article claims there are 100''s of reasons to cancel elections, but two will be used: "Salvation of the Fatherland" and "Do not meddle in our work." Both themes make up Russia Is Our Home program. (5/17)
II. Probability of Presidential Elections in June
A. Individual Likelihood Change From Last Week
Graham Allison 40%
John Lloyd 55%
Alexei Ulyukaev 60%
Matthew Lantz 50%
B. Recent Events in Favor of Presidential Elections:
ON MAY 17th PRESIDENT YELTSIN SIGNED THE LAW ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: Elections are to occur the first Sunday after the President''s term expires in June 1996. Requirements for the presidential elections include obtaining 1 million signatures with no more than 7% from any one region. Funding will be private with total expenditure not to be more than 250,000 times the minimum wage. (At current rates minimum wage is Rb20,500 ($4.06/month) which would make maximum presidential campaign expenditure $1,017,286. Individual donations are limited to 50 times the minimum wage ($203).
C. Recent Events in Opposition to the Presidential Elections:
KORZHAKOV ACCUSED OF CREATING ELECTION SLUSH FUND FOR YELTSIN: The money was supposedly skimmed by Yeltsin''s bodyguard from Russia''s arms, oil, and gem exports. Papers have recently begun reporting more revelations of abuses.
III. If Duma Elections are Held in December, What are the Likely Outcomes?
A. Individuals
Graham Allison John Lloyd
Alexei Ulyukaev Matthew Lantz
Cherno 20% CP-RF 23%
CP-RF 17% Cherno 15%
AgParty 11% AgParty 15%
LDPR 10% LDPR 11%
RChoice 9% Yabloko 9%
Yabloko 9% Lebed party 9%
Rybkin 9% Rybkin 6%
RChoice 6%
Missing 15% Nationalists 5%
B. New Evidence:
WOMEN OF RUSSIA TO CAMPAIGN INDEPENDENTLY says leader Yekaterina Lakova in the May
18th issue of Rossiiskie vesti. She described the group as a centrist faction with its own niche and a stable group of
supporters. (5/18/95 omri)
D. If June Presidential Elections. What Outcome?
A. Individuals
Graham Allison Matthew Lantz
Yeltsin 20% Yeltsin 25%
Rybkin 10% Cherno 25%
Cherno 10% Lebed 10%
Yavlinsky 10% Yavlinsky 10%
Lebed 10% Rybkin 8%
Other 40% Zhirinovsky 3%
Other 19%
B. New Evidence:
YELTSIN LIKELY TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT: Moscow News claims Yeltsin has already decided to run for president and has appointed Sergei Filatov to be his campaign manager. (5/11/95 Moscow News)
CHERNOMYRDIN''S CHANCES FOR PRESIDENT: Tatyana Vorozheykina predicts Chernomyrdin may win the presidency if unpopular Yeltsin runs for reelection, saying in absence of left-wing balance Chernomyrdin''s bloc is beginning to look like Mexico''s ruling institutional-revolutionary party. (5/18/95 Obshchaya Gazetta)
CHERNOMYRDIN SAYS WILL NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN INTERVIEW: Claims bloc will win large support in Parliamentary elections and will remain as an organization for the presidential elections, but denied he would run for president on Itogi program. (omri 5/22)
LEBED''S CHANCES FOR PRESIDENT: Dmitri Furman claims Lebed''s distance from political establishment, authoritarian ways, and moderate political views make Lebed a good logical candidate if he can keep this image through the election (5/18/95 Obshchaya Gazetta)
E. Political Positions: What the Parties are Perceived to Stand For
A. LDPR: restore empire and Russian pride
protect Russians in near abroad
end crime wave
B. Rus. Choice: market economy
democratic institutions
join the world
C. Yabloko: restore soviet union peacefully through
economics and democracy
more efficient economic reform with less
pain democratic opposition alternative
a new way
D. CP-RF stand up for those left out of reforms
re-establish education and social help
by the state
industrial policy which allows petty trade
but state control of economy elsewhere,
especially industry
E. AgParty protect/represent agriculture industry
lobby for agricultural subsidies