Russian Election Watch No. 11, November 20, 1995

RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
November 20, 1995, No. 11

To help track significant developments affecting Russian
elections, the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project
offers a simplified summary of recent political events, including
a "betting chart." Individual''s estimates of the likelihood of
Russian elections and their results are presented as numerical
estimated probabilities not because anyone entertains illusions
about precision, but to make the estimators state their bets as
clearly as possible.

I. Estimated Probabilities of Duma Elections in December 1995

A. Individuals Likelihood Change From Last Month

Graham Allison (11/1): 85%
Director
SDI Project

Sergei Grigoriev (11/1): 75%
SDI Project Fellow
Former Spokesman for Gorbachev

John Lloyd (8/17) 75%
Former Moscow Bureau Chief
Financial Times

Matthew Lantz (11/20) 75%
SDI Project

B. Recent Events that Favor Parliamentary Elections:

CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION (CEC) REGISTERS 43 PARTIES
INCLUDING YABLOKO AND DERZHAVA. 43 parties will appear on
the ballot for December 17 election. 2600 candidates were
registered for 225 single member districts. This averages to
12 candidates per seat. A random drawing to decide the order
of party appearances on the ballot determined: Women of
Russia is first; Derzhava is second; Our Home is Russia (NDR)
is 17; Yabloko is 19; Russia''s Democratic Choice is 23; the
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CP-RF) is 25; the
Congress of Russian Communities (KRO) is 31; the Liberal
Democratic Party is 33, and the Agrarian Party is 41. (OMRI
11/6, 11/13, 11/16)

TELEVISION CAMPAIGNING BEGINS. Each political party
will have one hour of free television time between November
15 and December 15. Time slot assignments for the 43 parties
were drawn by lot; the Rybkin bloc drew the first slot and
the radical Communists-Workers'' Party-for the Soviet Union
will appear last. Parties may buy additional air time at up
to $20-30,000/minute. Originally Ostankino, the state-run
TV, sought to have parties debate one another during their
spots, but parties vehemently rejected this proposal seeking
to program their own time.
Larger parties are using paid advertising. A number of
ads have been declared illegal by the non-binding Judicial
Chamber for Informational Disputes. LDPR ads cause frequent
complaints. Russian ads are polished and do not cover issues
in detail. One KRO commercial has money being placed in an
outstretched hand, with an announcer stating,"They warned the
bureaucrats not to take bribes." The next scene has a jail
cell closing with GENERAL ALEXANDER LEBED''S voice saying, "We
already warned you." (OMRI 11/7,10,15,16, NYT 11/16)

FINANCES AND THE ELECTION. Although not always followed,
the election law has explicit guidelines on election spending
and soliciting. All candidates must keep their money in
state bank accounts. Candidates can spend a maximum of
$120,000 on their campaigns, while parties can spend a
maximum of $3 million. Candidates can contribute $12,000 to
their own campaigns, and a party can give up to $18,000 for a
candidate. The party can contribute $1.2 million to its own
campaign fund. Individual donations to campaigns cannot
exceed $240 per candidate and $360 per party. Legal entities
can give $2400 to candidates and $24,000 to parties. The CEC
gives each party $18,000, and local CEC''s can also contribute
equally to parties. No donations are allowed from
foreigners, local governments, state enterprises, military
installations, non-profit organizations, or churches. (OMRI
supl. 11/17)

C. Recent Events That Raise Doubts About Parliamentary
Elections:

MOVEMENT TO HALT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION GATHERS STEAM:
Throughout Russia, individuals are trying to stop the
December 17 parliamentary elections. On November 7 a group
of leading businessmen launched a crusade to postpone
elections. They fear a Communist victory will set back
reforms. They seek the Russian Constitutional Court to
declare the election invalid. Industrialist KAKA BENDUKIDZE
announced in the event of a Communist landslide, he would
flee the country. These industrialists believe the greatest
outcry over canceled elections will emerge from the West, not
from within Russia. (Financial Times 11/6,11/7)
Meanwhile, a group of Duma members has also asked the
Constitutional Court to rule on the constitutionality of the
election law. These deputies, led by liberal IRINA KHAKAMADA
and VYACHESLAV NIKONOV argue the 5% hurdle should be lowered
to allow more parties into the Duma so that more of the
population is represented. Fears exist that with 43
registered parties over 50% of the population will vote for
parties not clearing the 5% hurdle. The deputies also seek a
run-off election system in place so one cannot gain a seat
with as little as 10-15% of the vote. (OMRI 11/1, 11/3,
Financial Times 11/10)
The Russian Supreme Court asked the Russian
Constitutional Court to address the issue. The
Constitutional Court will decide whether to hear the case
during week of November 20. If heard, a ruling may take
time. Many are afraid that any ruling will undermine the
results of the elections. Large parties have denounced the
appeal to the Court. Yabloko leader GRIGORY YAVLINSKY warned
postponing elections could mean for centuries. Communist
leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV suggested social unrest would occur
if elections were not held. KRO leader SERGEI GLAZYEV said
to change the law would undermine the elections. Prime
Minister VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN stated the elections to the
State Duma must take place on time in accordance with the
Constitution. (Financial Times 11/14, OMRI 11/7, 11/10)
On the other side, Federation Council Chairman VLADIMIR
SHUMEIKO believes no major unrest will occur if the elections
are cancelled. Finally, President YELTSIN said vaguely he
does not want the elections postponed, but would like to see
improvements made to the electoral law before the elections.
(Monitor 11/3, OMRI 11/14, 11/15)

APATHETIC YOUTH VOTING. In 1993 20% of 18-24 year olds in
Russia voted; this year the trend looks comparable. Only 4%
of Russians under 35 belong to political parties. 75% under
35 say they are not interested in politics or government.
This reflects a lack of civic education and the fact BORIS
YELTSIN is an uninspiring leader for youth. The Washington
based International Foundation for Electoral Systems is
working with the CEC to develop a "Rock the Vote" campaign
similar to the one run in the United States. (Washington
Post 11/12)

II. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential Elections in June

A. Individual Likelihood Change From Last
Week

Graham Allison 50% -10%
Sergei Grigoriev 50% -10%
John Lloyd 55%
Matthew Lantz 45% +5%

DATE SET FOR RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. The
Federation Council (upper house) voted 123-0 to set the
presidential election on June 16, 1996, four days after
President YELTSIN''S term expires. A 50% vote (90 votes) was
needed. Chairman of the Federation Council, VLADIMIR
SHUMEIKO, hurried the vote to end speculation that the
elections might not be held at all. (OMRI 11/16)

Although still in the hospital, President BORIS YELTSIN
remains in charge of the country. A dispute occurred earlier
this month, when Prime Minister VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN stated
that he was taking control of the "power ministries" while
Yeltsin was incapacitated. Yeltsin''s entourage quickly
disputed this claim. Yeltsin appeared on TV twice this
month, once slurring his words, and later in more control.
Most assessments now believe the Russian president is
recovering. However, one newspaper pointed out that as of
November 1, the president had missed 36 days for illness
since the start of the year and had taken 48 days for
vacation. (various sources 11-1-11/17, Obschaya Gazeta 11/1)

III. If Duma Elections are Held in December, What are the Likely
Outcomes?

A. Individuals

Graham Allison John Lloyd

Communist Party (CP-RF) 20% CP-RF 25%
Yabloko (Yavlinsky) 19% NDR 7%
Our Home (NDR) 15% Yabloko 7%
Congress of R. Communities 12% KRO 7%
(Lebed-KRO)
Agrarian Party 10%
LDPR (Zhirinovsky) 6%
Women of Russia 5%
Russia''s Choice (Gaidar) 5%

Sergei Grigoriev Matthew Lantz

Communist Party (CP-RF) 26% CP-RF 28%
Agrarian Party 20% Yabloko 15%
KRO (Lebed) 20% Agrarian 14%
Women of Russia 12% KRO 12%
Yabloko (Yavlinsky) 9% NDR 9%
NDR (Chernomyrdin) 8% LDPR 7%
LDPR (Zhirinovsky) 5% Women of R 6%
Industrialists (Volsky) 5% RChoice 3%
Others 6%

B. New Evidence:

OUR HOME IS RUSSIA (NDR) (Pro-government/
Chernomyrdin): NDR has hit the campaign trail. It is selling
itself as constructive workers, while opponents only offer
negative solutions. Posters show CHERNOMYRDIN with his hands
forming the roof of a house the party will build for the
country. NDR has used Western singers like Kool and the Gang
and Hammer at campaign rallies and has pursued populist
political policies such as raising social payments,
compensating those who lost money in investment scams, and
widening exceptions for conscription. CHERNOMYRDIN and
Moscow Mayor YURI LUZHKOV appeared together at a rally in
Moscow this month claiming the economy was finally improving.
(OMRI 11/10, OMRI supl. 11/17, NYT 11/16, Financial Times
11/17)
CHERNOMYRDIN also supported the reinstatement of
Yabloko and has criticized attempts to use the Constitutional
Court to postpone elections. "If the Supreme Court and some
Duma members believe the (election) law is unconstitutional,
they should have made their appeal earlier." (OMRI supl.
11/14)
Rumors of cooperations between NDR and the Communists
appeared earlier this month. CHERNOMYRDIN and Communist
leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV met and discussed their mutual
interest in opposing groups who want to discredit the
election law. Articles pointed out that unlike YELTSIN,
CHERNOMYRDIN has not warned of a Communist take over. Both
leaders were on the old Central Committee, and the parties
could benefit from cooperation. NDR needs the Communists''
popular support, and the CP-RF needs to work with the prime
minister in the next Duma. Neither leader has announced any
formal cooperation, which leads one to think these rumors
might be nothing more than pragmatic politicians discussing
the future. (OMRI 11/3, Moskovsky Komosolets 11/11)
NDR gained the support of the 500,000 member Union of
Pensioners this month. its leader praised CHERNOMYRDIN for
taking a constructive and serious approach to government.
(OMRI supl. 11/14)

COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE RUSSIAN
FEDERATION (CP-RF) (Left/Gennady Zyuganov): Early in
the month rumors suggested cooperation between the CP-RF and
the Congress of Russian Communities (KRO). ZYUGANOV claimed
there was a strong basis for cooperation and was in regular
contact with KRO leaders. KRO leaders later scuttled the
initiative. (INTERFAX 11/1, OMRI 11/2)
Communists across the nation celebrated the 78th
anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution. 100,000 individuals
attended rallies. Speaking at the rally in Moscow, ZYUGANOV
said the situation today in Russia was similar to the pre-
revolutionary conditions of 1917. This time, however, the
Communists would take power through democratic means. (OMRI
11/8, NYT 11/8)
Because of the party''s popularity, many observers are
discussing just what the CP-RF stands for in today''s Russia.
ZYUGANOV understands the Bolshevik system was a failure,
advocates a multi-party system, endorses freedom of religion
and choice, meets with Western businessmen, and encourages
foreign investment. He has been called flexible and
pragmatic with an excellent understanding of the electorate
and Russia. On the other hand, the party''s economic policies
call for the basic branches of industry - food production,
oil and gas, metallurgy and petro-chemicals to be included in
the state sector. Controlling inflation is important, but
the party believes today''s policies suffocate individuals.
The CP-RF advocates tariffs to protect firms. Although
seeking foreign investment, the party does not declare how
foreign investors in industries to be re-nationalized would
be compensated. (NYT 11/8, Economist 11/18, Monitor 11/8,
Washington Post 11/12)

Finally, ZYUGANOV warned against cancelling elections.
He claimed postponing elections would result in painful
upheavals. (OMRI 11/17)

CONGRESS OF RUSSIAN COMMUNITIES (KRO)
(Moderate Nationalist/Yuri Skokov, Alexander Lebed, Sergei
Glazyev): KRO backed away from a potential alliance from the
Communists. Spokesman VLADIMIR KLIMOV stated it would be a
tactical mistake to ally now that the campaign had started.
(OMRI 11/3)
KRO has continued its fiery rhetoric throughout the
month. Party leader YURI SKOKOV claimed, "The President''s
anarchic administration has run out of steam and should be
replaced." He also denounced CHERNOMYRDIN saying he should
be jailed for not paying salaries. "NDR and CHERNOMYRDIN are
the enemy." GENERAL ALEXANDER LEBED advocated military force
if necessary to protect Russians living abroad. Such
rhetoric has played well with the electorate. (Financial
Times 11/4, OMRI 11/8, OMRI supl. 11/17)
At their mid-November party conference, KRO initiated a
referendum to be placed on the ballot that amended the
Constitution to strengthen popular oversight over
authorities. SKOKOV called the referendum "more important
than the election." (OMRI 11/13, 11/15)
Former Soviet President MIKHAIL GORBACHEV assessed
KRO''s leaders. He called SKOKOV "secretive, inclined to
intrigue, and a technocrat who is suffering from
Bonapartism." LEBED, on the other hand, is "a man of morals,
who has strong attributes and needs to be smoothed a little."
He is not ready to be president. (OMRI supl. 11/10)
Pravda described KRO''s recent success as a combination
of three elements: Russia''s gloomy economic outlook, KRO''s
patriotic/democratic ideology, and its leadership. KRO has
an open democratic structure that allows smaller parties and
individual leaders to join it. It is the most Western-like
party is Russia and represents an evolution of Russian
political parties. It does not support a narrow ideology,
rather it is oriented toward defining problems and choosing
appropriate solutions. (OMRI 11/14)

YABLOKO (Reformist/Grigory Yavlinsky): On November
4, the Russian Supreme Court avoided an electoral crisis when
it overruled the CEC''s ban of Yabloko. The CEC registered
Yabloko on November 6. YAVLINSKY said of the ruling, "There
is still hope for democracy in Russia, but there will be many
problems ahead, a threat still exists." His words proved
prescient when a movement emerged to change the election laws
five weeks before elections. YAVLINSKY argued against
postponing the elections claiming, "Any delay would deal a
devastating blow to the hopes of building democracy. That in
turn would undermine stability in the country and the hopes
of lasting economic reform." (OMRI, 11/6, 11/7, NYT 11/5,
Financial Times 11/13)

YAVLINSKY claims his party is popular because it is
only party that appeals to the middle class that lost out in
the reforms. The Communists have a similar appeal. They
attract to the blue collar workers, while Yabloko appeals to
teachers, scientists, and other skilled workers. (Monitor
11/6)
Earlier in the month, the Democratic Russia Bloc,
announced it was instructing its 73 regional organizations to
back the Yabloko movement. (Nevavisimaya Gazeta 11/2).
Yabloko will appear as #19 on a ballot of 43 parties,
in its first TV appearance YAVLINSKY thanked ORT for the
seven and a half minutes of free air time, and then noted
that with paid advertisement costing $20-30,000/minute,
politicians were being forced to sell out to secure financial
backing. (OMRI supl. 11/17)

AGRARIAN PARTY (Left - Mikhail Lapshin): The
Agrarian party continues to base its support in the regions,
particularly within state farms, where leaders are expected
to deliver a heavy vote in favor of the party. In Belgorod,
all candidates for governor are soliciting the party for an
endorsement which is perceived to assure victory. Likewise,
in Stavropol Krai, the ruling authorities have announced
plans to back Agrarian candidates. (Segodnya 11/4, OMRI
supl. 11/17)
Agrarian Party leader MIKHAIL LAPSHIN, sensing a strong
showing in the elections, says his party will seek more
cabinet positions in the new year. Currently, the party has
two cabinet ministers, ALEXANDER NAZARCHUK, Agriculture
Minister, and ALEXANDER ZAVERYUKHA, Deputy Prime Minister.
LAPSHIN claims he would like his party to hold the positions
of First Deputy Prime Minister (in charge of the economy),
Economics Minister, or Finance Minister. (OMRI supl. 11/10)

LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF RUSSIA
(LDPR) (Nationalist/Zhirinovsky): ZHIRINOVSKY began the
month explaining that the LDPR did not have electoral
alliances because they were the only true opposition party.
(The LDPR has no members in the government.) He then went on
to accuse YEGOR GAIDAR''S Russia''s Democratic Choice of
campaigning too early by wrapping groceries in campaign
posters. The LDPR is also running ZHIRINOVSKY''S sister in the
same district Foreign Minister ANDREI KOZYREV is running.
According to ZHIRINOVSKY, KOZYREV is responsible for
destroying Russia as a superpower, and must be defeated.
(INTERFAX 11/1, OMRI supl. 11/3)
In an interview with former KGB official, Lt. Col.
VICTOR VALENTINOV, on LDPR/KGB connections, PRISM reported
VALENTINOV claims the LDPR was a government creation used to
scare society and the West. As evidence for this theory, he
points to the murky finances of the LDPR, that even tax
officials cannot track. He asks how the LDPR got this money
without redistributing property. He also notes in spite of
extremist statements, the LDPR always tows the government
line on major issues. Finally, the LDPR enjoys unhindered
distribution of literature throughout Russia and has never
been put on trial for its antics. VALENTINOV claims now that
the CP-RF has risen to prominence as the new bugbear, the
LDPR will fade. (Monitor Prism 11/3)

RUSSIA''S DEMOCRATIC CHOICE - UNITED
DEMOCRATS (RDC) (Reformist/Yegor Gaidar): YEGOR
GAIDAR''s party is still in danger of not clearing the 5%
hurdle. Lately, Gaidar has sold himself as a reformer with a
human face. He now supports protection and state control
over some large monopolies. Despite the fact some members of
his Duma faction called for hearings on the election law,
GAIDAR has come out against canceling elections stating, "To
put off elections now would create a much worse situation
than anything that could arise from the elections." GAIDAR
and his party have also led the warning calls against a
Communist victory. Fellow Deputy SERGEI YUSHENKOV addressed
an anti-Communist rally held in opposition to the
celebrations of the 1917 revolution. (OMRI supl. 11/14,
Financial Times 11/14)

WOMEN OF RUSSIA: (Left-Center/YEKATERINA
LAKHOVA) Women of Russia continue to do surprisingly well in
opinion polls. The bloc is known as moderate, cautious, and
practical. This has at times led to criticism of lacking a
coherent policy. For example, the bloc voted to end the war
in Chechnya but against a bill that cut off funds for the
war. Still, the bloc remains popular and stands a good
chance of clearing the 5% hurdle. (Izvestia 11/5, Sovetskaya
Rossiya 11/11)

DERZHAVA (Nationalist/Alexander Rutskoi): Like
Yabloko, former Russian Vice President ALEXANDER RUTSKOI''s
nationalist bloc was reinstated after the Supreme Court
declared the CEC ban illegal. Speaking in his first free air
time spot, RUTSKOI declared, "We are inconvenient to the
Communists and the Democrats." He promised if Derzhava gets
the majority in the parliament, "All the talk and demagoguery
in this parliament will end." He then cited all other
factions currently in the Duma and asked the audience to find
one completed task. (OMRI 11/6, OMRI supl. 11/17)

FORWARD RUSSIA! (Populist-Reformist/Boris
Fedorov): Former Finance Minister BORIS FEDOROV urged the
government to halt further privatization of the economy.
"This must be stopped immediately...I think it is in the
interests of the state to stop making a fool of itself and
cancel the operation. Mr. CHERNOMYRDIN please stop this
shameful thing." He also called for the 5% Duma barrier to
be increased to 10% to avoid a more fragmented Duma.
(Financial Times 11/7, OMRI supl. 11/10)
RYBKIN BLOC (Moderate-Left-Center/Ivan Rybkin)
Duma Speaker IVAN RYBKIN''S bloc held a party congress on
November 9. At the meeting the speaker distanced himself
from CHERNOMYRDIN''S NDR. He called for tougher state control
of the economy and said the state should play a more active
role in fixing energy prices. His faction, because of its
small size, advocates lowering the 5% barrier for entry into
the Duma. (OMRI 11/2, OMRI supl. 11/10)
The Rybkin Bloc drew the first spot on free TV
advertising. RYBKIN used his time to stress that his bloc
contained 40 Duma members and that they had worked diligently
to craft precise legislation over the session. He also
predicted a surprise result for the elections that would
depend on the votes of the regions. (OMRI supl. 11/17)

PARTY OF WORKERS'' SELF GOVERNMENT
(Left/ Svatoslav Fedorov) SVATOSLAV FEDOROV, the popular
Russian eye doctor, is considered Russia''s Ross Perot. He is
a self-made, charismatic man. His economic ideas are
leftist: he seeks to give ownership of each enterprise to the
workers to increase productivity; he advocates prohibiting
the export of raw materials, insisting the local producers to
sell domestically at artificially low prices. The Government
should fix salaries, prices, and pensions. Although his
policies are not economically sound, FEDOROV may find a niche
among the disgruntled. (Novoe Vremya, OMRI supl. 11/7)

IV. If June Presidential Elections. What Outcome?

A. Individuals

Graham Allison Matthew Lantz Sergei Grigoriev

Yavlinsky 15% Cherno 30% Lebed 30%
Lebed 15% Lebed 20% Zyuganov 15%
Chernomyrdin 15% Yavlinsky 15% Yavlinsky 10%
Yeltsin 15% Yeltsin 10% Chernomyrdin 10%
Zhirinovsky 5% Zhirinovsky 7%
Zyuganov 3% Yeltsin