Books
RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
December 8, 1995, No. 12
To help track significant developments affecting Russian elections, the Strengthening
Democratic Institutions Project offers a simplified summary of recent political events, including
a "betting chart." Individual''s estimates of the likelihood of Russian elections and their results
are presented as numerical estimated probabilities not because anyone entertains illusions about
precision, but to make the estimators state their bets as clearly as possible.
I. Estimated Probabilities of Duma Elections in December 1995
A. Individuals LikelihoodChange From Last Month
Graham Allison (12/7): 95% +10%
Director
SDI Project
Sergei Grigoriev (12/7): 85% +10%
SDI Project Fellow
Former Spokesman for Gorbachev
John Lloyd
Former Moscow Bureau Chief
Financial Times
Matthew Lantz (12/7) 95% +20%
SDI Project
B. Recent Events that Favor Parliamentary Elections:
- CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION (CEC) CHIEF NIKOLAI RYABOV ON
THE ELECTIONS: 43 parties will appear on the ballot for the December 17 election.
5675 candidates will compete for the 225 list seats, while 2700 candidates will compete
for the 225 single member districts. This includes 1000 candidates registered as
independents for the single member districts. Seven blocs have the greatest presence in
the regions. The LDPR is running 187 single district candidates; the Communists (CP-
RF) are running 131; Our Home is Russia (NDR) - 108; Congress of Russian
Communities (KRO) - 90; the Agrarians - 90; Russia''s Democratic Choice - 75; and
Yabloko - 71. There are an average of 12 candidates per district. Women make up 10%
of the candidates. Current deputies are 7% of all candidates, Muscovites are greater than
20% of the candidates. 5% of the candidates are under 30, 30% are between the ages
of 40 and 50, and 4% are older than 60. 374 billion rubles ($83 million) will be spent
on campaigning. Over 104 million individuals are registered to vote. RYABOV went
on to say, "I am certain that current legislation, along with proper activities of election
observers, excludes any chance of falsification." (Interfax 11/28, OMRI supl. 12/1)
- RUSSIAN COURT REFUSES TO HEAR CASE ON OVERTURNING
ELECTION LAW: The Russian Constitutional Court continued its tradition of avoiding
conflict by refusing to hear the case brought by over 100 Duma deputies that attempted
to strike down the 5% hurdle in the elections law. Many feared a court hearing so close
to the vote would jeopardize the election. No explanation was given by the Court as to
why it would not hear the law, but at least one Justice was unhappy with the ruling.
Justice ERNEST AMETISTOV claims the ruling was based on expediency, not
principle. The only way the court can turn down a case, according to AMETISTOV,
is when the issue is not a constitutional matter, clearly this case is. (Financial Times,
Washington Post, OMRI, 11/21, Interfax 11/28)
- MEDIA CAMPAIGN CONTINUES: The first series of free TV appearances
have met with tepid reviews. Nezavisimaya Gazeta called the first wave "boring and
banal" with most parties having nothing to say. The Moscow Times called the speeches
long on sincerity and short on fantasy. Both Russian public TV (ORT) and Russian TV
are airing one hour of free air time a day for the parties. Most times are allocated in 7«
minute slots. What the free TV messages have lacked for fantasy, the paid commercial
have made up. The porno-political genre has been invented by VLADIMIR
ZHIRINOVSKY''s LDPR (see section III below). As of November 28, 20 of the 43
parties had purchased paid air time for December. Ironically, the most popular party,
the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, has not purchased commercial time.
(NG 11/17, MT 11/16, Financial Times 12/1, OMRI supl. 11/28)
- FINANCES AND THE ELECTION. The CEC announced the amount of funds in the
campaign accounts of various parties. Many of the numbers appear questionable.
Highest was the LDPR with $2.2 million. Then came Russia''s Democratic Choice with
$666,666; Rybkin Bloc - $288,888; Women of Russia - $151,111; Agrarians - $57,777;
KRO - $56,222; Beer Lovers - $53,333; CP-RF $52,888. Our Home is Russia claimed
to have only the funds given to it by the CEC ($17,777) of which it had not spent any.
This assertion raised more than a few eyebrows, since the NDR campaign has been so
extravagant thus far - hosting Western singers and German Supermodel fashion shows.
Accordingly, the CEC threatened to investigate NDR''s funds, which prompted NDR to
revise its estimates. Much campaign financing goes unreported through cash
transactions. (Interfax 11/22, 11/24, OMRI supl. 11/28, NYT 12/6)
- INTERNET USED TO PREVENT RUSSIAN ELECTION FRAUD: The Center for
Mass Media Studies and other Russian on-line groups have combined efforts to create
an independent public watch network to deter election fraud. The "Elections ''95"
database will have available public regulations, legislation, and factual data which can
be accessed by internet users to ensure that the election laws are being carried out
properly. (Moscow Times 11/16)
C. Recent Events That Raise Doubts About Parliamentary Elections:
- ALEXANDER SOBYANIN CLAIMS MANY PARTIES FALSIFIED
SIGNATURES: SOBYANIN states only 12 of the 43 parties are running more than 40
candidates in the single member districts. To run in a single member district a candidate
needs to collect 5000 signatures, which can then be applied toward a party''s 200,000
signature requirement. If all parties needed 200,000 signatures to register, why are only
12 of them running a significant number of regional candidates? SOBYANIN claims the
parties purchased the lists and provided false documents to the CEC in Moscow. (OMRI
supl. 12/5)
- DEMOCRATS COMPETE AGAINST EACH OTHER IN REGIONS:
Apparently failing to learn their lesson from two years ago, many regional democratic
candidates risk splitting the reform vote by competing against one another. Although the
Moscow leaders have stressed cooperation, regional activists have not always heeded
their leaders'' wishes. Even Yabloko leader GRIGORY YAVLINSKY admitted at a
press conference on 12/5 some districts failed to put forward only one reform candidate.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports in the majority of Moscow districts, three to four democrats
are competing along side each other. Why? A number of reasons are likely. First,
when the Moscow leaders choose a candidate, the rank and file candidates may resent
being replaced and decide to run as independents. Second, some do not believe polls that
they will lose and refuse to yield to a more viable candidate. Finally, some have
received money to campaign and fear they will have to pay it back if they do not run.
(OMRI supl 12/1, NG 11/29, Interfax 12/5)
- WHY SO MANY PARTIES? In 1993, 13 parties competed for the Duma elections,
in this election 43 parties are competing. Why the proliferation? GLEB
CHERKASOV writing in Segodnya claims in 1990 Democratic Russia and the
Democratic Party of Russia had legitimate ideologies and real support groups. By 1993
the population had tired of politics, and parties began to represent a few permanent
politicians who were full-time functionaries. Now party members are not interested in
a party''s doctrine, but merely where one stands on the party election list. The
Communists and Agrarians are the closest thing to legitimate parties in Russia.
YELTSIN recently complained about the number of parties saying, "Voters are totally
confused. They cannot tell the parties apart." (OMRI supl. 11/21, Boston Globe 11/29)
- BOMB EXPLODES IN DUMA DEPUTY''S OFFICE: A grenade-type bomb
exploded in the office of nationalist deputy NIKOLAI LYSENKO. No one was injured
in the attack. Speculation surrounding the assault ranged from Chechen rebels;
(LYSENKO is an outspoken critic of Chechen independence) to LYSENKO planting the
bomb himself to garner support for his party''s lagging political campaign. (Boston Globe
12/6)
II. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential Elections in June
A. Individual Likelihood Change From Last Week
Graham Allison 50%
Sergei Grigoriev 50%
John Lloyd
Matthew Lantz 45%
- NEW PARTY ESTABLISHED BY FEDERATION COUNCIL SPEAKER
VLADIMIR SHUMEIKO TO SUPPORT INSTITUTION OF PRESIDENCY: The new
party, called Russia Reforms - New Course, will support a presidential candidate (most
likely YELTSIN if he runs). The party will provide a base of support for the head of
state when dealing with politics and other decisions. SHUMEIKO claimed popular
Sverdlovsk governor EDUARD ROSSEL had joined the bloc. At the moment,
ROSSEL''s status is still undetermined. (Interfax 11/24, OMRI 11/27)
III. If Duma Elections are Held in December, What are the Likely
Outcomes?
A. Individuals
Graham Allison John Lloyd
Communist Party (CP-RF)20%
Yabloko (Yavlinsky) 19%
Our Home (NDR) 15%
Congress of R. Communities12%
(Lebed-KRO)
Agrarian Party 10%
LDPR (Zhirinovsky) 6%
Women of Russia 5%
Russia''s Choice (Gaidar) 5%
Sergei Grigoriev Matthew Lantz
Communist Party (CP-RF)22% CP-RF 25%
KRO (Lebed) 15% KRO 15%
Agrarian Party 12% Yabloko 14%
Yabloko (Yavlinsky) 10% NDR 9%
Women of Russia 9% Agrarians 9%
NDR (Chernomyrdin) 8% Women of R 8%
LDPR (Zhirinovsky) 7% LDPR 7%
Russia''s Choice 5% RChoice 3%
Independents10%
B. Party Officials'' Predictions:
- GEORGY SATAROV, presidential advisor: Maximum of five parties clear the 5%
hurdle: CP-RF, NDR, Yabloko, KRO, and one other. (OMRI 12/1)
- GENNADY ZYUGAVOV, Chairman, CP-RF: In the next parliament will be: CP-RF,
Agrarians, LDPR, Yabloko, NDR, KRO. (Interfax 11/18)
- ANATOLY LUKYANOV, leader, CP-RF: CP-RF/Agrarians 30%; National/Patriots
(esp. KRO) 20%; Democrats 30%, LDPR clears hurdle, NDR slightly less. (Moskovsky
Komsomolets 11/21)
- ALEXANDER VENGEROVSKY, Deputy Chief, LDPR: LDPR 1st; KRO 12%; CP-
RF 8%; NDR next; Yabloko not in Duma. (Moskovsky Komsomolets 11/21)
- BORIS FEDOROV, Chairman, Forward Russia!: CP-RF 15%; Yabloko 10%; KRO
7%; NDR 4.9%; Russia''s Choice not in Duma. (Moskovsky Komsomolets 11/21)
- BORIS ZOLOTUKHIN, Deputy Chief, Russia''s Choice: six parties in Duma:
Russia''s Democratic Choice, Yabloko, CP-RF, Women of Russia, NDR, KRO.
(Moskovsky Komsomolets 11/21)
- NIKOLAI KHARITONOV, Deputy Chief, Agrarian Party: Up to - of Duma
controlled by Agrarians, CP-RF, and proponents of "great power" including My
Fatherland, Derzhava, and Power to the People.; LDPR 11-13%; NDR 8-11%; Women
of Russia 7-9%; Yabloko 7-8%. (Moskovsky Komsomolets 11/21)
-LEONID SEDOV, Deputy Director of All Russian Center for Russian Public Opinion;
CP-RF 35%, Yabloko 17%, Women of Russia 16%, NDR 15%.
C. New Evidence:
- OUR HOME IS RUSSIA (NDR) (Pro-government/PM Victor
Chernomyrdin): After repeated poor showings in the polls, NDR is beginning to use its
advantage as the "party of power" to gain privileges while campaigning. It has utilized
its connection with Russian public TV to run campaign ads disguised as documentaries.
In one such 15 minute advertisement, voters are reminded that the Communists
persecuted intellectuals. Another reminds voters that shelves were empty under
Communism. Whether the new negative advertisements will enhance
CHERNOMYRDIN''s bloc''s chances is debatable. In 1993, VLADIMIR
ZHIRINOVSKY did well despite the ruling party''s attempted negative campaign against
his party. (NYT 12/6)
NDR bookkeeping has also come into question. Despite spending extravagantly
on Western performers, NDR beer and chocolate, and campaign commercials, the party
claimed to only have received its federal funds and not to have spent any of it yet. Once
the CEC threatened to investigate NDR''s records, a new statement was submitted. (NYT
12/6, OMRI supl. 12/5)
The NDR campaign themes have stressed a party that promises only what it can
fulfill and is not afraid of the responsibility of running the country. However, being the
governing party, NDR is the only party that cannot take the universally popular
opposition stance. NDR has been criticized for repeating the mistakes of the 1993 ruling
party, Russia''s Choice. It has underestimated the appeal of opposition forces and
assumes the support of local elites in the regions will translate into popular support.
Since many of the regional governors have been appointed by YELTSIN and not elected,
they may not have the backing of their local constituencies. (OMRI supl. 11/28)
Even members of the party have been critical of the NDR campaign strategy.
KONSTANTIN TITOV, the governor of Samara, and the deputy chair of NDR gives
the bloc a C+ for its regional campaigning efforts and advertisement. (OMRI 12/1)
However, NDR campaign manager SERGEI BELAYEV defends his party''s
activities and warns of a potential Communist/Agrarian victory. "There are good people
in the Agrarian and Communist parties, but they will bring to power others who will
wring their necks and ours as well." (Moskovsky Novosti 12/1, OMRI supl. 12/1)
- COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE RUSSIAN
FEDERATION (CP-RF) (Left/Gennady Zyuganov): As the election nears,
polls show the CP-RF continuing to lead the other parties (see Section V below).
Throughout the month party leader ZYUGANOV has given speeches stressing the
Communist party economic and political platform. The CP-RF seeks to change economic
policy to stimulate production; it recognizes multiple forms of property, but gives
preference to collectivized property; it seeks to regulate prices on energy resources, and
seeks state control over transportation, the energy fuel complex, and the defense
industry. The party still seeks foreign investment in Russia. ZYUGANOV has stated
he admires the Chinese economic model, and claims his party proposes a balanced and
stable economic policy. (OMRI supl. 11/21, 12/5, Interfax 11/22)
ZYUGANOV claims the reintegration of the former Soviet republics is inevitable,
and recommends restoring full contact with Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan
immediately without encroaching on their sovereignty. The other CIS states can ask to
be accepted back, and Russia will deal with them on a case-by-case scenario. (Segodnya
11/29)
To the West, ZYUGANOV continues to strike a more conciliatory tone. He
promises no mass reversal of privatization and says the Western nations should not fear
the Communists. He believes the shift to the left in the Duma is natural, like a
pendulum. ZYUGANOV claims it "will be beneficial to all if reasonable-minded forces
rather than radical-wing forces come to power and ensure stability." (OMRI supl. 12/5,
Interfax 11/28)
ZYUGANOV maintains his party is working with similar-minded parties in the
regions. Agreements between the CP-RF, the Agrarian Party, and the smaller Power to
the People bloc to run only one left-wing candidate per district have been reached in 54
single mandate districts. ZYUGANOV also claims, despite KRO party leader YURI
SKOKOV''s denial, the CP-RF continues to hold a dialogue with KRO. (Segodnya
11/16, Interfax 11/28).
The free TV appearances by the CP-RF have been serious affairs. ZYUGANOV
explains his economic programs, while his fellow party leaders stand stoically behind
him. He advises the audience not to fear the Communists, but to fear provocateurs,
swindlers, thieves, and loss of control over nuclear weapons. The CP-RF has thus far
not run a paid TV advertisement, preferring to campaign face-to-face. (Moscow Times
11/16, Financial Times 12/1, Interfax 11/22)
- CONGRESS OF RUSSIAN COMMUNITIES (KRO)
(Moderate Nationalist/Yuri Skokov, Alexander Lebed, Sergei Glazyev): KRO
continues to advance in the polls as it prepares for the elections. Moskovsky Pravda
praised KRO as the "most promising party to join the election fray." KRO has moved
beyond its three primary leaders to gain support of prominent second and third echelon
elites in many regions including politicians, trade union representatives, and journalists.
KRO politician SERGEI GLAZYEV is using the regional branches of his party, the
Democratic Party of Russia, to support the party in the regions. KRO weakest regional
link is its single mandate candidates. Much of this regional support may only translate
into list votes and not district seats. (Pravda 11/16)
KRO''s advertising campaign has won praise. In a notable campaign commercial,
a voice says the Congress of Russian Communities warns all bureaucrats not to take
bribes. The black and white picture shows an outstretched hand taking money. The
picture then cuts to a color shot of GENERAL ALEXANDER LEBED in full uniform.
He says directly to the camera, "I strongly advise against it." KRO has also run front
page advertisements in Moskovsky Komsomolets asking for voters'' ideas and experiences
to help KRO revitalize Russia. (Financial Times 12/1, OMRI supl. 11/21)
Deputy Executive Committee Chair SERGEI PYKHTIN stated he believed
voting should be compulsory in Russia, but would deny 10-12 million foreigners living
in Russia the right to vote because they were not ethnic Russians. He would exclude
non-Russian nationalities of the former Soviet Union who still live within Russia. (OMRI
11/30).
An article in the newspaper Trud claimed KRO was winning support from the
Communists. Members of the Communist party are apparently upset with ZYUGANOV
for signing a non-aggression pact with Prime Minister VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN.
They are also supposedly displeased that the CP-RF has supported the budget thus far.
The article claims local Communists have assisted in organizing regional speeches by
KRO leader GENERAL LEBED. (OMRI 11/24)
Both GENERAL LEBED and YURI SKOKOV have said over the last two
weeks that they intend to run for president. This could imply tension underneath the
surface within the KRO leadership. When asked about the issue, both leaders deny any
difficulty and claim the story is fabricated by the press to discredit KRO''s electoral
chances. Officially, both leaders have vowed not to discuss the presidential elections
until after the parliamentary elections, but both have neglected this rule. (OMRI 11/21)
- YABLOKO (Reformist/Grigory Yavlinsky): Yabloko continues to be the
only popular reform-oriented party in the elections. YAVLINSKY stands for free
market reform without being tainted by unpopular policies. YAVLINSKY explained the
popularity of his agenda to the New York Times saying, "You have to assure voters
reforms will improve their lives." (NYT 12/1)
The Yabloko leader explained his program to Russian voters on Russian TV. He
advocates first and foremost reducing the Russian dependency on exports of raw material.
He also seeks to correct privatization flaws and revive the far east. Finally, he seeks to
rebuild the ties with the CIS. YAVLINSKY claimed not only could the current president
not solve these problems, he could not even identify them. (OMRI 12/6)
A month and a half after the Yabloko ban, the party seems to have suffered no
permanent damage from the fiasco. However, conspiracy theories abound over the
original intent of the ban. DMITRI OLSHANSKY, director of the Center for Strategic
Analysis and Forecasting claims the ban was meant to serve one of four purposes: to
encourage democratic parties to unite, to boost YAVLINSKY''s popularity against the
Communists, to show the West there is no alternative to the ailing Yeltsin, or to attempt
to postpone the elections. (Vek no. 45, OMRI supl. 12/1)
In late November, all of the Yabloko leaders attended a ceremony commemorating
the start of the Chechen War. Yabloko leader VICTOR SHEINIS blamed the Duma for
not backing a Yabloko initiative last November that would have prohibited funds for the
war. YAVLINSKY stated the only a president who had no ties with the start of the war,
could end the war. (OMRI 11/23)
At the same rally, YAVLINSKY called for a coalition government, not of one
party, but of like-minded groups that would follow the same path and not suffer
infighting. Yabloko has been one of the most united blocs in the Duma. (OMRI 11/23)
At a press conference on December 5, YAVLINSKY stated the Communists did
not need to campaign because the current government policy of delaying pensions was
doing their work for them. The poor NDR showing, according to YAVLINSKY, could
result in the removal of CHERNOMRYDIN. YAVLINSKY believes the democrats will
likely be the minority in the new Duma, and that there will be a basis for cooperation
between democratic forces as the presidential campaign nears. (Interfax 12/5)
Finally, Segodnya wrote an article claiming Yabloko has backing from most major
reform newspapers including: Izvestiya, Obshchaya Gazeta, Moskovsky Novosti, and
Moskovsky Komsomolets. (Segodnya 11/29)
- AGRARIAN PARTY (Left - Mikhail Lapshin): VASILY
STARODUBTSEV, an Agrarian Party senior official, last week blamed the West for
Russia''s problems. "Western capitalists have given a special order to destroy our great
country and its economy...(they) have been extremely successful." He went on to say
land should belong to the entire nation, and that it is unacceptable to have any sale or
purchase of land used for agricultural purposes. (OMRI supl. 12/5)
Although both parties are promising to cooperate in single mandate races, the
Communist Party of the Russian Federation appears to be cutting into the popularity of
the Agrarian Party at the regional level. The CP-RF is more popular because voters
prefer Communist leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV to Agrarian leader MIKHAIL
LAPSHIN. (OMRI 12/1)
- LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF RUSSIA
(LDPR) (Nationalist/Vladimir Zhirinovsky): The government paper Rossisky Vesti
claims the LDPR belongs in a museum. Unlike the rest of the country the party has not
evolved since its founding in 1990. The LDPR''s success stems from its ability to attract
publicity, its insatiable will for power, and ZHIRINOVSKY''S oratory abilities.
ZHIRINOVSKY will have difficulty attracting his old electorate and winning a new one
with KRO in the race. For years, the article claims, the LDPR ignored the regions and
now it will lose support to KRO there. (11/28)
Potential electoral troubles aside, ZHIRINOVSKY is still a master at causing
scandals. In this campaign, his election commercials have inspired a name for a new
genre, porno-political. In a series of ads, a sultry night club singer undresses herself in
front of the patrons singing, "Only you make life interesting." Behind her, some of
ZHIRINOVSKY''s more memorable moments are seen, including throwing orange juice
on the governor of Nizhnii Novgorod and striking a female deputy last September in the
Duma. (Financial Times 12/1)
ZHIRINOVSKY also made an appeal to church patrons while attending a
conference on Russian in the 21st century. He claimed he sees the Orthodox Church as
the basis for Russia''s spiritual revival and that Orthodox Christianity should be the only
state-recognized religion. (OMRI 12/5)
- RUSSIA''S DEMOCRATIC CHOICE - UNITED
DEMOCRATS (RDC) (Reformist/Yegor Gaidar): Prospects for YEGOR
GAIDAR''s party to clear the 5% hurdle continue to look dim. However, GADAIR is
still campaigning vigorously and warning of the dangers of returning the Communists to
power. One RDC campaign poster has an old couple armed with pistols with the words
"Communist Revanche?" above it. On TV GAIDAR acknowledged he was still blamed
for many of the faults of current Russian society, even though he had been out of power
for almost three years and had disagreed with many government policies. He stated he
was often asked what he did with the state savings. He replies it was gone before I got
there. (OMRI supl. 11/21, Moscow Times 11/16).
While recognizing his party has lost support, GAIDAR believes his party will
receive votes from the intelligentsia, entrepreneurs, private enterprise owners, and young
people. He claims his party evaluates each policy on its own merit and therefore will
sometimes vote with the government and other times against it. (OMRI supl. 11/28)
An article in Novoe Vremya advised GAIDAR to hold on. In another ten years
he will have a political resurrection when today''s children who have never lived under
Communist rule will be able to vote. Gaidar is only 40. (OMRI supl. 12/1)Financial
Times 11/14)
- FORWARD RUSSIA! (Populist-Reformist/Boris Fedorov): Former
Finance Minister BORIS FEDOROV has stepped up his populist rhetoric and campaign.
In the last two weeks he has claimed the democrats have never been in power. The
president and the prime minister were both senior officials in the old CPSU. The
Agrarian Party should be held responsible for its share of the blame. Last year 27% of
the budget went to the agriculture sector and grain productivity dropped by 23%. His
negative campaigning has attacked a "monstrous present and a glorious future" politics
of other parties. He also claimed Russia could not afford to take a chance on
inexperienced politicians like Lebed. He proposed keeping generals in the army and out
of politics. (OMRI supl. 12/5)
At a party conference on December 2, party members signed a "Contract With
Russia" promising to follow strict adherence to the Russian constitution and laws, to
eliminate nomenklatura privileges, to impose tougher sanction on crime, and to hold a
referendum within a year on a union with Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. (OMRI
12/4)
One Forward Russia! billboard says 50,000,000 victims of civil war,
collectivization, and repression would not vote for ZYUGANOV, - BORIS FEDOROV,
FORWARD RUSSIA! (omri supl. 11/28)
IV. If June Presidential Elections. What Outcome?
A. Individuals
Graham Allison Matthew Lantz Sergei Grigoriev
Yavlinsky 15% Cherno 30% Lebed 30%
Lebed 15% Lebed 20% Zyuganov 15%
Chernomyrdin15% Yavlinsky 17% Yavlinsky 10%
Yeltsin 10% Yeltsin 5% Chernomyrdin 10%
Zyuganov 5% Zhirinovsky 7%
Zhirinovsky 3% Yeltsin <5%
- YELTSIN RELEASED FROM HOSPITAL TO A CONVALESCENCE HOME.
Reports say his health is improving, but many believe he will not be able to run for a
second term. Thus far, he has not taken an active part in the Duma election. (Financial
Times 11/28)
- CANDIDATES PREPARE THEMSELVES FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS:
Numerous candidates are preparing themselves for a run for Russia''s presidency. Many
consider the Duma election as a primary of sorts for the June 16 presidential elections.
Those who have expressed interest in running include: GRIGORY YAVLINSKY, who
claims to already have 800,000 of the necessary 1,000,000 signatures; GENERAL
ALEXANDER LEBED, who stated contingent on the parliamentary elections, he would
likely run; his KRO co-leader, YURI SKOKOV, which could lead to disruption in the
KRO leadership; Prime Minister VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN; former Vice President
ALEXANDER RUTSKOI, who leads the Derzhava bloc; LDPR Chair VLADIMIR
ZHIRINOVSKY; Communist leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV; film director and
Democratic Party of Russia leader STANISLAV GOVORUKHIN; and former USSR
President MIKHAIL GORBACHEV.(Komsomolskaya Pravda 11/15, OMRI 11/17)
V. Polling Results For Elections
A. Parliament and Party Polls:
- Obshchaya Gazeta predicted in its Nov. 16-22 issue with the 5% barrier in place the
CP-RF, KRO, Yabloko, NDR,and perhaps the Agrarian party and the LDPR would earn
places in the Duma.
- Vox Populi polled 400 Russian political, business, military, and intellectual elite to
discover who they thought would attain seats in the new Duma. Reported in
Nezavisimaya Gazeta on 11/21.
Party % of polled who feel
party will get into Duma
1. CP-RF 91.9%
2. NDR 84.0%
3. Yabloko 75.1%
4. LDPR 71.5%
5. Agrarians 68.0%
6. KRO 59.2%
7. Women of Russia48.5%
8. Russia''s Choice28.7%
9. Forward Russia 7.3%
- The Strategic Analysis and Forecasting Center, a group that ranks parties and
individuals according to ten parameters such as party organization and charisma of party
leaders, expects the following results for the parliamentary elections. Reported in
Moskovskaya Pravda 11/21 and Interfax 11/22.
1. CP-RF 7.4%
2. KRO 7.1%
3. Women of Russia6.6%
4. NDR (Cherno.)6.5%
5. Yabloko 6.4%
6. LDPR 6.0%
7. Agrarian 5.9%
As for the popularity of the party troikas (the top three leaders of each party.)
1. KRO (Skokov, Lebed, Glazyev)
2. NDR (Chernomyrdin, Mikhailov, Rokhlin)
3. LDPR (Zhirinovsky, Abeltsev, Vengerosky)
- The Public Opinion Foundation claimed in Interfax on Nov. 27 that based on their
polling, the CP-RF will be the undisputed winner of the election with 20-25% of the
electorate voting for it. Far behind will be Yabloko, Women of Russia, NDR, KRO, and
LDPR.
- A VCIOM poll studied the popularity of parties among differing demographics. The
poll was conducted between Nov. 1994 and March 1995. Reported in OMRI supl. 12/1.
- The Agrarian Party and Yabloko are more popular among women.
- LDPR and Russia''s Democratic Choice are more popular among men.
- Women of Russia, Russia''s Democratic Choice, and LDPR collect
younger votes.
- CP-RF and the Agrarian Party collect older votes
- Russia''s Democratic Choice and Yabloko voters are the most educated.
- LDPR and Agrarian voters are less well educated.
- LDPR, Agrarian, and Communist voters are the least educated.
- Reform parties are best represented in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
- Yabloko, CP-RF and LDPR do well in large cities.
- Women of Russia and CP-RF do well in small cities.
- The Agrarian Party and CP-RF do well in rural settings.
- The rich vote for Yabloko and Russia''s Democratic Choice.
- The middle class votes for Yabloko.
- The poor vote for Women of Russia, CP-RF, and the LDPR.
- Vox Populi reported in the 12/2 Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the following parties would
clear the 5% hurdle: CP-RF, NDR, KRO, Agrarians, LDPR, Women of Russia.
Women of Russia and KRO improved dramatically since the last poll on 11/21, while
Yabloko and Russia''s Democratic Choice fell.
- The Strategic Analysis and Forecasting Center predicts for the next six months, the
influence of the CP-RF will decline while KRO''s will increase. Reported in Choice of
the Regions #2, 11/27.
The most influential politicians will be:
1. Chernomyrdin
2. Yeltsin
3. Luzhkov (Moscow Mayor)
4. Lebed
5. Yavlinsky
6. Zyuganov
7. Skokov
8. Korzhakov (Yeltsin''s bodyguard)
9. Soskovets (First Deputy Prime Minister)
10. Barsukov (Head of Federal Security Service)
- Pollster Dmitri Olshansky of the Strategic Analysis and Forecasting Center says in
OMRI on 12/5 that only 55% of Russia''s 104 million registered voters will vote. Of
those, 10% may spoil their ballot, so parties will compete for 45% of registered voters.
The results in the list voting will be:
1. CP-RF 14%
2. NDR 8%
2. KRO 8%
2. Yabloko 8%
5. LDPR 7%
6. Women of Russia 6%
7. Russia''s Choice 6%
The contest in the single member districts will be between NDR and the
Communists.
- The Public Opinion Fund reported in Interfax on 12/6 a poll of 8996 Russians on the
qualities the Russian public is looking for in a candidate. They were then asked which
candidate most exhibits this quality.
1. Takes a responsible attitude toward governing (89%)
1. Lebed 27%
2. Yavlinsky23%
2. Is honest and decent (68%)
1. Yavlinsky28%
2. Lebed 27%
3. Is prepared to tell the truth
1. Lebed 32%
2. Zyuganov28%
B. Other Polls:
- Vox Populi stated in the 11/23 Nezavisimaya Gazeta that 84% of polled Russian
political, business, military, and intellectual elite support holding parliamentary and
presidential elections on time.
- The Washington Based International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
reported a poll in OMRI supl. 11/24, that found:
- 40% of polled feel there should be several parties as opposed to one or many
- 6% are actual party members
- 41% see no difference between party platforms
- 58% feel parties address issues important to voters
- 25% said they would support a party candidate over an independent.
- The All Russian Public Opinion Center found the following results in a poll of 1601
participants conducted from 11/10-16 reported in Interfax on 11/22.
- 26% of Russians regard Chernomyrdin as an associate of Yeltsin
- 22% claim he is neither close nor far from Yeltsin
- 6% see Chernomyrdin as distancing himself from Yeltsin
- 12% claim they will vote for NDR
- A poll conducted by a local organization in the Briansk region found the follow issues
mattered most to the voters. Reported in Choice of the Regions #2, 11/27.
1. Inflation 48%
2. Crime 43%
3. Declining Morals36%
- An unattributed poll on campaign election viewership was reported by ITAR-TASS on
11/28.
- 13% of Muscovites always watch program on the elections
- 28% often watch programs on the elections
- 41% occasionally watch programs on the elections
- 17% object to such broadcasts
In 1993, 28% watched often, 16% watched occasionally, and 21% objected.
- 16% seek more political broadcasts
- 9% seek fewer political broadcasts
- 38% are satisfied with the current number of broadcasts.
- Vox Populi in the 11/30 Nezavisimaya Gazeta stated the results of polls taken over the
past summer and fall that:
- 28% of Russians feel the Communist system is the system most suitable for
Russia. 54% disagree.
- 21% think the country might restore socialism under certain circumstances;
62% think such a return is impossible.
- 29% think Russia can pull out of its crisis if it reverts to an economy based
solely on the state. 43% think it can do so if Russia widens its private sector,
and 16% believe the current balance should be maintained.
- 52% prefer to be hired; 22% prefer to run their own business.
- 42% prefer to work for state companies; 41% prefer to work for other than
state companies, 16% prefer to work for private enterprises.
- 56% feel everyone should earn as much as possible even if that means
differences in income. 35% prefer the state to distribute public goods equally.
- 28% think is it more useful to have a system of views shared by all; 60%
prefer diversity of views.
- 45% think the multi-party system is good for society, 32% disagree.
- The Russia Public Opinion Fund announced results of a poll in Interfax on 12/6 that:
- 37% of Russian voters know who they will vote for and will go to the polls.
- 19% will go to the polls, but are undecided.
- 15% have not decided who they will vote for or if they will go to the polls.
- Vox Populi reported in the 12/7 Interfax, as many as 51% of Russian voters will go
to the polls. 21% are not sure if they will attend, and 5% have no interest in politics.
Many voters will decide who they will vote for on election day.