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RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
The Regional Elections
November 11, 1996, No. 26
As you know, in Act Three of Russia''s year of democratic elections, 52 of Russia''s 89 regions are holding gubernatorial elections. You will recall that in Act One, the December 1995 Duma elections, the Communist party emerged as the big winner. While in Act Two, this summer''s presidential election, President Yeltsin defeated Communist challenger Gennady Zyuganov in the second round 53% to 40%. Currently, during every Sunday between now and the end of the year, Russian regions will conduct elections to determine their leaders. This Election Watch, coming near the half-way point of the gubernatorial elections, is meant to bring you up-to-date on the recent results and political trends emerging from the regional elections.
I. Results of Regional Elections Through November 11:
Of the nineteen races so far; incumbents won eight; opposition candidates won seven; two will go to a second round; and two must be redone.
Gubernatorial Elections Won by Incumbents (8)
Region (Date) Winner % of vote gained
- Saratov (Sept. 1) Dimitry Ayatskov 80%
Rostov (Sept. 29) Vladimir Chub 62%
Vologda (Oct. 6) Vyacheslav Pozgalyov 81%
Yamal-Nenets (Oct. 13) Yuri Neelov n/a
Jewish Aut. Oblast (Oct. 20) Nikolai Volkov 72%
Khanty-Mansi (Oct. 27) Alexander Filipenko 70%
Sakhalin (Oct. 27) Igor Farkhutdinov 40%
Chita (Oct. 27) Ravil Geniatulin 31%
Gubernatorial Elections Won by Opposition Candidates (7)
Region (Date) Winner % of vote gained
- Amur (Sept. 22) Anatoly Belonogov by 189 votes
Leningrad Oblast (Sept. 29) Vadim Gustov 53%
Kaliningrad (Oct. 20) Leonid Gorbenko 50%
Kursk (Oct. 20) Alexander Rutskoi 79%
Kirov (Oct. 20) Vladimir Sergeenkov 50% (People''s Power)
Pskov (Nov. 3) Yegeny Mikhailov 57% (LDPR)
Magadan (Nov. 3) Valentin Tsvetskov 46%
Elections Still Undecided (4)
Awaiting 2nd Round:
Region Incumbent Challenger
- Stavropol (Nov. 17) Petr Marchenko (38%) Alexander Chernogorov (47%) (CP-RF)
Kaluga (Nov. 24) Oleg Savchenko (39%) Valeri Sudarenkov (47%)
Must Redo Election:
Region Incumbent Challenger - Krasnodar (Oct. 27) Nikolai Yegorov (25%) Nikolai Kondratenko (57%)
Krasnodar regional election law says that turnout must be above 50%; only 47% turned out on Oct. 27. Region will hold another election on Dec. 22. - Agin-Buryat (Oct. 27) Bolot Ayusheev (49%) Yuri Dondokov (48%)
Agin-Buryat regional election law says if only two candidates compete and no one gets 50%, the election must be redone; date not reset.
Upcoming November and December Gubernatorial Elections:
November 17 November 24 December 1 December 8
- Altai Kurgan Khakassia Khabarovsk
Stavropol (2nd round) Kaluga (2nd round) Ivanovo Bryansk
Kamchatka Samara Voronezh
Murmansk Nenets Kostroma
Komi-Permyak Arkhangelsk
Ust-Orda Buryat
December 15 December 22 In December (date not specified) - Evenk Volgograd Marii El Ulyanovsk
Vladimir Tyumen Yakutia Magadan
Kaluga Chukchi Astrakhan Komi-Permyak
Perm Krasnodar (redo) Tula Taimyr (Dolgan-Nenets)
Chelyabinsk
Ryazan
II. Six Lessons of the Regional Elections Thus Far:
1. The theme of anti-Communism, so effective during the presidential campaign, is not selling in the gubernatorial elections. Of the 19 elections so far, none have been won on the theme of anti-Communism. In one case, in the Leningrad Oblast, where the anti-Communism strategy was tried, the incumbent governor suffered a surprising defeat in the second round. The regional public is more interested in professionalism and moral character, while the regional elite seek business and professional connections in their governor. The efficient manager theme works for both incumbents and challengers. Government-supported Rostov Governor Vladimir Chub and newly-elected opposition Governor Vadim Gustov of the Leningrad Oblast both won their elections by selling themselves as professional men who could provide concrete benefits to their regions.
2. The government was over-confident, and now fears loss of regional influence: In September, Sergei Filatov, the leader of the All-Russian Movement of Public Support for the President, the group that coordinates the government''s regional election policy, predicted that of the 50 races, only four or five incumbents would be defeated. With 15 races decided thus far, seven incumbents have lost. Filatov now claims the government was too occupied with the presidential election to prepare adequately for the regional elections. He believes the poor economic situation in the regions are hurting incumbents and that the government should have removed more unpopular governors prior to the elections. Alexander Kazakov, deputy head of the presidential administration in charge of regional elections, believes elections offer the governors a dangerous alternative power base to the Kremlin: namely, the people. He fears that after elections the government will no longer be able to remove or even control regional governors. The presidential administration is preparing a draft law to limit the power of regional governors by allowing the president to discipline governors who do not follow orders. This bill is unlikely to pass because the Federation Council (the upper house) is partially made up of governors.
3. Opposition is more important than partisanship at the regional level. Opposition candidates are receiving backing from more than one opposition movement: In regions where opposition parties do not have viable candidates, they have backed an anti-incumbent, even if he is non-partisan. This has made for some strange alliances. Recently elected Magadan governor Valentin Tsvetskov was endorsed by Gennady Zyuganov''s People''s Patriotic Union, Vladimir Shumeiko''s pro-Yeltsin Reforms-New Course, the LDPR, and by Yavlinsky''s Yabloko. Additionally, the People''s Patriotic Union and Reforms-New Course both backed challenger Leonid Gorbenko in Kaliningrad. The new Leningrad Oblast governor was supported by the Communists and the local Yabloko branch. And Pskov Governor Yevgeny Mikhailov, who actually is a LDPR member, was backed by the rare coalition of LDPR and the Communists. All of this demonstrates that party discipline and organization on the regional level is weak.
4. Of the seven opposition governors elected thus far, all seem willing to work with the Kremlin: Thus far, most of the opposition candidates elected have been local entrepreneurs and managers, as opposed to true opposition ideologues. For instance, Kaliningrad governor Leonid Gorbenko ran the Kaliningrad port for more than ten years, while the Swedish-trained Leningrad Oblast governor Vadim Gustov served as the former Chariman of the oblast Soviet. Their election reinforces the fact that professionalism over ideology is selling. This business sense has made the newly-elected opposition governors open to working with Moscow. Leonid Gorbenko wants to make Kaliningrad Russia''s "sea gate." He has already signed commerce agreements with Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov. The Yeltsin staff has also expressed a willingness to work with the new Leningrad Oblast Governor Vadim Gustov. This trend is even developing in the true opposition governors that are elected. Former Vice President Alexander Rutskoi, now Kursk governor and until recently a sworn Yeltsin adversary, has stated since his election that he supports government economic policy and will not involve himself with federal politics. Governor Rutskoi even met with his former nemesis, Anatoly Chubais.
5. Turnout has been lower, and regional election laws have affected outcomes: The turnout in the presidential election in the first round was 70% and 69% in the second round. Turnout in the gubernatorial elections have averaged 46%, with a high of 60% in Saratov and a low of 33% in Sakhalin. It is not clear if this lower turnout assists incumbents or challengers. Incumbents won in both Saratov and Sakhalin. Voter fatigue is cited as the primary reason for low turnout. Election laws differ significantly from region to region and have significantly affected outcomes. Most regional laws require a runoff if no candidate reaches 50%, but in Amur and Chita, a candidate needs only a plurality. Ravil Geniatulin, the incumbent Chita governor, won reelection with only 31% of the vote. Minimum voter turnout also varies; most regions require a 25% turnout. In Krasnodar, however, incumbent Nikolai Yegorov dodged a bullet when his loss to Communist Nikolai Kondratenko 25% to 57% was negated by a 47% turnout; three percent short of the necessary 50%.
6. Regional elections are yet another sign of the continuing growth of the democratic presumption in Russia: The gubernatorial elections are the final act in a three part drama of Russian elections that has unfolded over the last 12 months. A year ago, experts questioned whether the December Duma elections would even be held. The momentum from the successful conclusion of the Duma elections helped to ensure that the presidential elections would take place. After the successful completion of the presidential election in July, doubts over the likelihood of gubernatorial elections were erased. In just one year, with more confidence after each passing election, Russians have come to accept that elections are the appropriate means for selecting their leaders a true step forward.