The Russo-Georgian War and Beyond: Towards a European Great Power Concert

Summary

The post-Soviet country of Georgia has generated surprise upon surprise after its Rose Revolution in 2003. The new leadership of Western-educated Mikheil Saakashvili initiated wide-ranging domestic reforms, including a large-scale, unprecedented anti-corruption drive. It also intensified relations with the West and sought membership of the EU and NATO. Georgia's prospects peaked by the beginning of 2008 when NATO pledged membership but without defining any concrete time frame for when and how this could be realized.

The outcome of the Russian-Georgian War in August 2008 radically changed the Eastern outlook of the Western powers. The war provoked vigorous international reactions as consequence of the sudden shift in the strategic balance that forced the European states to rethink their strategic options in a narrowed geopolitical environment with less real possibilities for exerting political leverage in the Eastern neighborhood. Henrik Larsen's book chapter argues for a focus on the great powers (France, Germany, the UK) as crucial actors in the broader European 'reset' with Russia. The chapter argues furthermore that reactions must be explained from the perspective of experience based on past geopolitical events which translate the external pressures into concrete foreign policy: France oriented towards the creation of a strong EU as global actor, Germany influenced by her self-imposed restraint and empathy with Moscow, and the UK still ambiguous due to its Atlanticist commitments.

The reaction pattern of the infamous crisis is taken as symptomatic for the continued relationship between the West and Russia based on a higher degree of pragmatic cooperation in areas of mutual interest at the detriment of democracy promotion and Euro-Atlantic expansion that characterized the West's engagement with the Eastern Europe before 2008. The Franco-German axis remains the stable element of this new positioning but backing from the UK remains necessary for transatlantic convergence on the sensible Eastern neighborhood issue. While Tbilisi's NATO and EU membership aspirations have not diminished, the reset with Russia has left Georgia in a position of strategic limbo between Western and Eastern influences that persists until today with no European great power willing to challenge Russia's regional hegemony.