Settlers, Refugees, and Immigrants: Alternative Futures for Post-Settlement Cyprus

Overview

The central theme of this article is the introduction of scenario planning in the negotiation of the settler, refugee, and immigration issues in Cyprus and other divided societies. While advocating support for the United Nations Plan for the Comprehensive Settlement of the Cyprus Question (the “Annan Plan”), the article proposes alternative ways of linking its immigrant, Turkish settler and Greek Cypriot (GC) refugee quotas. The Turkish Cypriot (TC) community is provided with a choice between a community-homogeneous future with fewer settlers and refugees, and a multicultural one with more of each. Subsequently, an explicit link is made between the numbers of the Greek Cypriot refugees and those of the Turkish settlers, immigrants, and TC émigrés. This paper argues that a TC constituent state which accommodates more of the latter should also be in a position to welcome more GCs under a low percentage of the TC population: a potentially win-win situation. Finally, we address the scenario in which TCs opt for a multicultural future but GC refugees do not actually resettle, with a safeguard provision that compensates the GC side in another issue such as security, government, or even territory. By compensating possible losses in one area with favorable readjustments in another, these safeguards eliminate worst case scenarios for both sides, preserve the initial balance of the negotiated settlement, and maximize the negotiability and credibility of the Annan Plan. At the same time, the settler, refugee, and immigration issues are linked in new and innovative ways to emphasize a better human rights environment for all.