Press Release
With the ensuing boycott of Jamaat Islami and other smaller parties, the MQM (Muttahida Quami Movement) and religions parties such as JUI (Jamaat Ulema) could stand to benefit from their absence. In Pakistan, the smaller political parties have often been able to play the 'third' party role effectively as power brokers in forming government within the assembly.
One party of particular importance is the MQM, which has flown under the radar with the return of Bhutto and Sharif. The party, which is mostly based in Karachi and the Sindh province, has radically changed its strategy. The MQM has nominated candidates with better brand name recognition, such as renowned artist Khush Bakht Shujaat in one of the Karachi districts. MQM has been able to harness the business community in Karachi to support its candidates, beginning to set up cross-cutting coalitions, something missing from previous campaigns. In 2002, there was a strong anti-MQM sentiment which was used by the major parties to sideline the Karachi based party. The anti-MQM vote now seems to be further diluted due to the presence of the PPP, Sunni Tehreek and PML-N candidates. For example, in a by-poll conducted in the past year, Ikhlaq Abidi of MQM defeated the PPP candidate handily. In addition, the Karachi incidents with the army and police, has made many view MQM with a more sympathetic light. MQM has also started to campaign more outside of the Sindh province in hopes of building support in other regions. MQM could stand to significantly improve its standing in the new election.
It is unclear whether the religious party coalition, MMA will be able to build on its performance in the 2002 election. Many viewed MMA as the big winners of the 2002 elections, as their alliance with the PML-Q vaulted them into an enviable position within the National assembly, in addition to provincial power broker. The MMA was able to garner the highest percentage of votes for religious parties in Pakistani electoral history. With the absence of the Jamaat Islami, it is unsure whether the MMA alliance will hold together. The strength of the 2002 campaign was the ability to coordinate the various religious parties onto a more focused platform and the Jamaat Islami played a critical role in facilitating that. The largest party in the MMA alliance is Fazlur Rehman's Jamiat Ulema Islam (JUIF), and which decided bypass the boycott measure and instead contest the elections vigorously. The JUIF has a number of seats in the NWFP (North West Frontier province) and Balochistan. Many believe that the JUIF will retain a pro-Musharraf and PML-Q stance if allowed to retain regional control and interference from the federal government. The interesting factor will be if the JUIF is able to retain or increase its seat count from 2002 despite the weakening of the MMA alliance.