The Strange Failures of 'The Global War on Terror'

CAIRO -- I was not surprised, during a working visit to Egypt for a few days, to read the results of the latest BBC World Service global poll showing that in 22 out of 23 countries surveyed most people feel the US-led 'global war on terror' has not weakened Al-Qaeda. On average, the poll showed, only 22% of respondents feel that Al-Qaeda has been weakened, while three in five believe that the war on terror has had no effect (29%) or made Al-Qaeda stronger (30%).

The poll surveyed 23,937 adults in 23 countries in July-September, and was conducted by pollsters GlobeScan with the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland.

In most of the countries surveyed, people had a negative view of Al-Qaeda, except for two countries that are also very close allies of the United States: Egypt and Pakistan. In these two, those who have mixed or positive feelings towards Al-Qaeda (Egypt 40% mixed and 20% positive, Pakistan 22% mixed and 19% positive) are nearly double those who view the group negatively (Egypt 35%, Pakistan 19%).

Two aspects of this seem important to me, and should get the attention of whoever becomes the next American president. First, Egypt and Pakistan have been central suppliers of leaders, ideologists, foot soldiers and supporters for Al-Qaeda and other terror groups in the past 20 years since Al-Qaeda's inception. Second, public sympathy for Al-Qaeda and other movements like it persists in both countries, alongside enormous American financial and military aid to their governments.

Something is very wrong if the United States and allies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on a global war on terror, but the main terror group targeted continues to operate, spawns many imitators and allies, and in most parts of the world is seen either to be holding its own against the United States or maintaining considerable public support or sympathy.

The poll has other troubling findings:

- On average across all 23 countries, 10% think Al-Qaeda is winning, 22% think the US is winning, and 47% think neither side is winning.

- In the US itself, just 34% believe Al-Qaeda has been weakened. Fifty-nine percent believe the 'war on terror' has either had no effect (26%) or has made Al-Qaeda stronger (33%), and 56% believe neither side is winning the conflict.

- On average 61% of respondents had negative feelings about Al-Qaeda, with just 8% positive and 18% mixed views.

- Publics in some of the US' closest allies had the largest numbers perceiving that the war on terror has strengthened Al-Qaeda, including France (48%), Mexico (48%), Italy (43%), Australia (41%) and the UK (40%).

GlobeScan Chairman Doug Miller noted that, "The fact that so many people in Egypt and Pakistan have mixed or even positive views of Al-Qaeda is yet another indicator that the US war on terror is not winning hearts and minds."

What could explain the astounding reality that Al-Qaeda (and other extremist movements, like the Taliban) seem to be most firmly anchored in countries that are among the world's top recipients of American economic aid and military support? 

Several possibilities come to mind:

- Chromosomes. Perhaps Egyptians and Pakistanis are genetically predisposed to irrational and violent behavior. Some graduate student in Alaska who is not fully occupied with monitoring the Russian threat should probably get on this right away and launch a serious study.

- Domestic politics. Perhaps Egyptians and Pakistanis have been so demeaned by their own autocratic political systems for decades on end that some of them have embraced extremist views as a sort of cathartic antidote to their home-grown degradation. 

- Resentment against the United States. Perhaps many people think Al-Qaeda are a bunch of despicable killer thugs, but they turn a blind eye to them because their daily lives are impacted more adversely by the double standards and destructive consequences of American policies in Palestine, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and other lands.

- Domestic and foreign policy convergence. Perhaps many Egyptians and Pakistanis feel that American support for their governments promotes dehumanizing conditions under which they feel they do not get the benefits of either their citizenship rights or the dictates of their basic human dignity. When the United States is seen as fighting a specific foe, that foe -- regardless of its own record -- becomes a little less menacing in view of the enormity of people's disdain for the policies of Washington and their own governments.

Pakistan and Egypt are two very stressed and distorted societies, with great human suffering, worsening socio-economic disparities, flawed governance systems, enormous American support, and a legacy of spawning, supporting or acquiescing to Al-Qaeda-like extremism and terror. How those elements combine and relate to each other would seem worthy of deeper analysis than they seem to have enjoyed to date-- from Alaska and Washington alike.

Rami G. Khouri is Editor-at-large of The Daily Star, and Director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, in Beirut, Lebanon.