The Subversive Trilemma: Why Cyber Operations Fall Short of Expectations

Summary

Although cyber conflict has existed for thirty years, the strategic utility of cyber operations remains unclear. A growing body of research explains why cyber operations tend to fall short of their promise in both warfare and low-intensity competition. The mismatch between promise and practice is the consequence of the subversive trilemma theory, which finds that cyber operations’ speed, intensity, and control are negatively correlated. A case study of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict reveals that the trilemma’s constraining effects result in cyber operations delivering limited utility.