Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security
Targeting Top Terrorists: How Leadership Decapitation Contributes to Counterterrorism
Abstract
Several states, including Israel and the United States, have put decapitation tactics, which seek to kill or capture leaders of terrorist organizations, at the forefront of their counterterrorism efforts. The vast majority of scholarly work on decapitation suggests, however, that leadership decapitation is ineffective at best and counterproductive at worst. Contrary to this conventional wisdom, leadership decapitation significantly increases the mortality rate of terrorist groups, although the results indicate that the effect of decapitation decreases with the age of the group, even to a point where it may have no effect at all. This finding helps to explain the previously perplexing mixed record of decapitation effectiveness. Terrorist groups are especially susceptible to leadership decapitation because their organizational characteristics (they are violent, clandestine, and values based) amplify the difficulties of leadership succession. Additionally, in contrast to the conventional wisdom regarding the durability of terrorist groups, politically relevant terrorist groups (defined as those with at least four attacks including one attack resulting in a fatality) endure significantly longer than previously believed.
Read Jenna Jordan's review of this article and Patrick B. Johnston's article, "Does Decapitation Work? Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Targeting in Counterinsurgency Campaigns," on ISSF.
For more information on this publication:
Please contact
International Security
For Academic Citation:
Bryan C. Price. “Targeting Top Terrorists: How Leadership Decapitation Contributes to Counterterrorism.” Quarterly Journal: International Security, vol. 4. no. 36. (Spring 2012): 9-46 .
- Recommended
- In the Spotlight
- Most Viewed
Recommended
Analysis & Opinions
- Project Syndicate
Japan's Strategic Imperative
Journal Article
- Quarterly Journal: International Security
The Cult of the Persuasive: Why U.S. Security Assistance Fails
Analysis & Opinions
- Foreign Affairs
Guardians of the Republic
In the Spotlight
Most Viewed
Analysis & Opinions
- Project Syndicate
What Caused the Ukraine War?
Analysis & Opinions
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Significance of the Iran-Saudi Arabia Agreement Brokered by China
Paper
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
The Great Military Rivalry: China vs the U.S.
Abstract
Several states, including Israel and the United States, have put decapitation tactics, which seek to kill or capture leaders of terrorist organizations, at the forefront of their counterterrorism efforts. The vast majority of scholarly work on decapitation suggests, however, that leadership decapitation is ineffective at best and counterproductive at worst. Contrary to this conventional wisdom, leadership decapitation significantly increases the mortality rate of terrorist groups, although the results indicate that the effect of decapitation decreases with the age of the group, even to a point where it may have no effect at all. This finding helps to explain the previously perplexing mixed record of decapitation effectiveness. Terrorist groups are especially susceptible to leadership decapitation because their organizational characteristics (they are violent, clandestine, and values based) amplify the difficulties of leadership succession. Additionally, in contrast to the conventional wisdom regarding the durability of terrorist groups, politically relevant terrorist groups (defined as those with at least four attacks including one attack resulting in a fatality) endure significantly longer than previously believed.
Read Jenna Jordan's review of this article and Patrick B. Johnston's article, "Does Decapitation Work? Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Targeting in Counterinsurgency Campaigns," on ISSF.
- Recommended
- In the Spotlight
- Most Viewed
Recommended
Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate
Japan's Strategic Imperative
Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security
The Cult of the Persuasive: Why U.S. Security Assistance Fails
Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Affairs
Guardians of the Republic
In the Spotlight
Most Viewed
Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate
What Caused the Ukraine War?
Analysis & Opinions - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Significance of the Iran-Saudi Arabia Agreement Brokered by China
Paper - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
The Great Military Rivalry: China vs the U.S.