Understanding Pakistan's Elections

What were the Pakistan elections for?

The February 18 election was for the National Assembly, the lower house of the National Legislature and four provincial assemblies (Sindh, Punjab, NWFP and Baluchistan). There are 342 seats in the National Assembly, 272 of which are filled via direct elections. Because of security issues and deaths of some candidates, this election was conducted in only 268 constituencies. Forty-five percent of registered voters turned out to vote.

Did President Musharraf's party prevail?

No. The two major opposition parties to President Musharraf, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) led by the late Benazir Bhutto's husband, Asif Zardari (88 seats) and the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) led by Nawaz Sharif (66 seats) defeated pro-President Pervez Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) (40 seats). The Prime Minister will be selected by the Assembly and is usually the leader of the party with the most votes. Nawaz Sharif was declared ineligible to run in this election and Asif Zardari didn't opt to contest these elections.

How did the Islamist parties fair in the election?

Poorly. The coalition of Islamist parties, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) garnered only 3 seats, after winning 62 in the 2002 elections. They were defeated in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), the tribal border frontier where the Taliban are waging a fierce insurgency against the Pakistani government, by the secular Pashtun Awami National Party, which won 10 seats in the parliament. The Sindh-based Muttihada Qaumi Movement (MQM), a secular and pro-Musharraf party won 20 seats.

The MMA failed to win a single province: the PML-N and the PPP dominate Punjab; the PPP and the MQM are the major parties in Sindh; the ANP and the PPP dominate the NWFP; and the PML-Q and the PPP were the big winners in Baluchistan.

Do the elections determine who will be the new President of Pakistan?

No. The President of Pakistan is elected to a five year term by an electoral college, composed of the Senate, National Assembly, and the four provincial assemblies. However, the parliament can impeach the president with a 2/3 majority.

Do the opposition parties have the necessary majority to oust Musharraf?

No. The potential PPP/PML-N/ANP coalition can gather 2/3 majority as some PML-Q members and independent members are expected to join their mother party PML-N. However, in Senate, PML-Q has a majority and the next election for some Senate seats is about two years away.

How will the new government share power with Musharraf, who has stated he has no intention of resigning?

Prepare for a showdown. Though the PML-N and PPP have announced a "common agenda" the parties will have to decide whether and how forcefully they will seek to challenge Musharraf and reverse some of his most unpopular moves, including the dismissal of the Supreme Court.

What influence can Musharraf yield as President in the new political environment?

Extensive. If Musharraf holds on to his presidential seat he will maintain significant powers. These include the power to dissolve the parliament and thus remove the Prime Minister from office, subject to Supreme Court approval; and the supreme command of the Armed Services including the power to appoint the Army Chief.

What is the implication for the military campaign in the tribal frontiers?

Remains to be seen. The army will continue to manage the military component of the 'war on terror' and it will be a while before the new political leadership will be involved in the process.