International Security

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Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States

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Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States
Soldiers stand near an anti-aircraft artillery gun at a base of People’s Liberation Army Lanzhou Military 47th Combined Corps anti-air brigade in Xi'an in northwest China's Shaanxi province, Monday, July 29, 2013

Summary

Would China escalate to nuclear use in a conventional war with the United States? If China believed that U.S. conventional attacks on missiles, submarines, air defenses, and command and control systems threatened the survivability of its nuclear forces or that the United States was preparing a counterforce attack, it might engage in limited nuclear escalation to gain military advantage or coerce the United States. The United States will face difficult trade-offs in deciding how best to manage the risk of nuclear escalation.

Recommended citation

Caitlin Talmadge, "Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States," International Security, Vol. 41, No. 4 (Spring 2017), pp. 50–92.

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