The May 2025 conflict between India and Pakistan pushed the two nuclear-armed states to the brink of a full-blown war. But it was also vital for another reason: it was the first significant contest between high-end Chinese and Western military hardware. China showed that its military gear can compete against advanced Western platforms, and perhaps even prevail. The result has clear implications for potential flashpoints in the Taiwan Strait, and anywhere else where the United States and its allies might compete for global dominance with China.
The First True Clash of Chinese and Western Hardware?
The conflict in May 2025 marked the first time an integrated Chinese high-end military hardware was leveraged in a combat, and that too against Western high-end military hardware, amongst many other military platforms.
Amongst its fleet of fighter jets, the Pakistan Air Force deployed the Chinese-supplied Chengdu J-10 Vigorous Dragon jets, following their purchase in 2021, in the aftermath of the India-Pakistan skirmishes in 2019, when Pakistan shot down two Indian military aircraft. Pakistan claimed these jets shot down six Indian aircraft, including France’s crown jewel military asset – the Rafale fighter jets. Whilst these figures have not been independently verified, even conservative assessments – including those from the United States and the French – have indicated that at least two Rafales were indeed shot down in the combat. This would mark the first combat loss of a Rafale jet anywhere in the world – a symbolic victory for China.
Whilst it remains unclear the exact equipment that was used to down the Indian jets, mounting evidence strongly suggests China’s advanced PL-15 air-to-air missiles played a central role in the conflict. Debris recovered on the Indian side of Punjab reportedly included identifiable remnants of the missile, including one largely intact PL-15, providing clear indications of its deployment. Pakistan’s Air Force also released a video on social media confirming the integration of the Chinese advanced missiles as the ‘potent punch’ for the PAF. A report by RUSI compares the PL-15s to the US’s AIM-120C/D (AMRAAM), claiming that the Pl-15 ‘outranges the latest AIM-120D model’. The AMRAAM is one of the United States’ flagship beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missiles, procured by over 40 countries and integrated into nearly all major Western and NATO aircrafts – from the F-15, F-16, F-22 and the F-35A, as well as the Eurofighter Typhoons. Incidentally, India claimed Pakistan used the AIM-120 missiles in the 2019 skirmish.
An Integrated Web of Chinese Systems
The Chinese demonstration effect from this conflict is not merely about individual assets, but instead about the success of an integrated Chinese combat network.
Pakistan now relies almost entirely on Chinese military hardware — a change from the past, when U.S. equipment was often at the heart of Pakistan’s arsenal. Pakistan is now able to integrate a range of Chinese platforms – from the J-10Cs and PL-15 missiles, to Chinese air-defense systems, drones, and radar networks. The conflict showcased for the first time the operation of so many Chinese military systems in a live and high-intensity environment, but also exposed some limitations, as the Chinese air defense system may not have responded as hoped with the Chinese HQ-9 air defense system showing vulnerabilities.
India, in comparison, operated a patchwork of platforms: Russian air defense systems, French fighter jets, Israeli drones, and U.S. artillery shells – each with different technologies and frameworks. This patchwork complicates technical integration, particularly as many systems are not built to operate seamlessly together or communicate effectively in a fast-moving situation. Operational coordination thus becomes more complex, particularly in situations where split-second decisions are dependent on interoperable equipment. Joshua White, former White House senior advisor and director of South Asian affairs at the National Security Council, recognized this in his 2021 Report at the Brookings Institute, calling India’s military architecture as a ‘motley force ill-suited to the demands of future warfare’.
To governments around the world concerned with their security, China now offers both capable weapons systems and seamless integration. Information sharing and data networks how an embedded Sino-centric architecture offers a complete defense and security package. This might be particularly appealing to countries seeking to sophisticated defenses without the price tag of advanced Western equipment.
Implications for Global Military Balance
The India-Pakistan conflict has raised interest from many in global defense circles. In the immediate aftermath of the conflict, shares of AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Co.—maker of the J-10C fighter jet— surged over 20%, while Dassault Aviation, the European manufacturer of the French Rafale, saw its stock tumble more than 6%.
The commercial and geopolitical elements of success on a battlefield is possibly the best advertisement for Chinese military technology. The sharp rise of AVIC Chengdu’s stock reflects investor confidence that countries considering future defense procurements may lean towards Chinese systems, anticipating not only a boost in arms sales, but also in geopolitical influence.
As investors reassess China’s military capacity and its potential to rise as an arms exporter, many in China claim that this conflict was China’s ‘DeepSeek Moment’ – one that showcased China’s defense capabilities on a global stage, just as DeepSeek did in generative artificial intelligence. China currently holds less than 7% of global arms exports, behind America’s 43% and nearly 10% for the French. However, just as China continues to expand its offerings in technology and software, it might be able to capture more market share in the defense sector. Selling more warplanes and missiles in the Global South is not only a lucrative business, but also one that strengthens the Chinese footprint globally.
The U.S.-China Context
The implications and learnings from this conflict run deep, not only for how the U.S.-China relationship evolves, but also as regional powers, NATO, and many in the developing world carefully analyze the engagement and their own defense strategies.
For China, this encounter reflected a rare glimpse on how their military systems, from fighter jets to missile platforms, might perform against Western designs, and in particular advanced Western military platforms – a scenario particularly relevant to potential flashpoints like the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Singapore-based analyst and former Shangri-La Dialogue Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Alexander Neill recognized this as a ‘rare opportunity’ for Beijing from an intelligence perspective.
For the United States, the clash has raised strategic questions. The performance of the Chinese equipment has intensified the interest and scrutiny from Pentagon, NATO and the wider allies. Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, noted how, “air warfare communities in China, the U.S. and a number of European countries will be extremely interested to try and get as much ground truth as they can on tactics, techniques, procedures, what kit was used, what worked and what didn’t.”
Conclusion
The India-Pakistan May 2025 conflict revealed how regional conflicts are no longer local skirmishes, but instead a testing ground for global rivalries. This was not just a clash between the nuclear neighbors, but a preview of the central contest in modern geopolitics.
For governments, policymakers and decision makers, the lesson is clear – the West’s technological and strategic advantage is under real pressure. The superiority of Western military gear should not be assumed.
